Okey, the season has started...!
How does our Olympic roster look per today? Any changes because of a hot/cold start to the season or due to injury (Josi/Sbisa)?
I still like to see something like:
Hiller(Berra) or Berra(Hiller)
Streit-Vauclair
Diaz-Bezina(Du Bois)
Josi-Blindenbacher
Seger-Sbisa
or variation in the mix
Hollenstein-
i-Brunner
Bärtschi-Plüss-Nino
Wick-Bykov(Gardner)-Suri
Moser-Trachsler-Ambühl(Walker)
I don't think we'll see any newcomer at the Olympics, the few that had a chance (guys like Bykov or Vermin) are not exactly tearing it up. On the other hand, some guys that were borderline such as
i or Bodenmann are making a good case for themselves.
On defense, I think the top two pairs of the last WC will be confirmed, and it makes sense to have Streit play with Sbisa. Not sure who will play on the fourth pair, but I guess that Blindenbacher and Furrer are one step ahead of the rest thanks to their play last spring, so my best guess is:
Josi - Diaz
Streit - Sbisa
Seger - Vauclair
Blindenbacher - Furrer
On offense, out of last year's lines, I think Moser - Plüss - Niederreiter and Bieber - Trachsler - Walker are the most likely to stay the same, although Moser could fit well somewhere else and there are possible upgrades over Bieber. Romy and Brunner should play together as that pair worked well in 2012. So I'd start with this:
Brunner - Romy - ?
? (Moser) - Plüss - Niederreiter
? - ? - ?
? (Bieber) - Trachsler - Walker
Then the tricky part is do we replace the guys who did so well last year with other that are better on paper such as Wick, and where does Bärtschi fit? Also, who is the best fit for Brunner and Romy?
I see three possiblities on the first line: Moser, who played well with Romy and Brunner in 2012, Hollenstein, as Romy was set to center him and Bodenmann last year before his injury, plus Hollenstein and Romy play together in Geneva, or Bärtschi.
With Plüss and Niederreiter, the most likely fits are Moser or Bärtschi. I saw Rüthemann as a darkhorse due to his chemistry with Plüss and the fact he was dropped from the team last year because he had no energy left makes me think that Simpson didn't completely give up on him, but with his offense going down, he doesn't belong on a scoring line anymore. If Bärtschi goes there, Moser car either play on the first line as mentionned earlier, or drop to the fourth and play a similar role that the one he had in 2011.
The fourth line worked very well last year, and I definitely see the Trachsler - Walker pair going to Sochi, but I think there are possible upgrades over Bieber. One of them is Moser if there is no spot for him in the top 6, or maybe Ambühl if he's not used on the third line. Rüthemann could also work here, he's done well as a forechecker on a checking line before.
Then there is the third line.
i is the favorite for the center spot so far, but I can see Ambühl there as he's often used as a center for the national team. Despite his good play at the WC, I don't see Gardner making the Olympic team. On the wings, if
i is the center, Hollenstein and Bodenmann are the obvious favorites while Wick is a good fit with Ambühl. Suri is also a possibility, as well as Bärtschi if Hollenstein and Moser get the spots on the top two lines, and maybe Ambühl if
i gets the center spot.
So my best guess for the moment is:
Brunner - Romy - Hollenstein/Moser/Bärtschi
Moser/Bärtschi - Plüss - Niederreiter
Bodenmann/Wick/Ambühl -
i/Ambühl - Hollenstein/Suri/Bärtschi
Bieber/Ambühl/Moser/Rüthemann - Trachsler - Walker
Ten players for six spots. I see Moser, Hollenstein and Bärtschi as locks, and Bieber and Rüthemann as darkhorses, which leaves Bodenmann, Wick, Ambühl,
i and Suri fighting for three spots.