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2013 Draft Thread Part IV - I Am Suffused with Great Uncertainty

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With Carolina rumored to be shopping the #5 pick if "their guy" isn't on the board (presumably to move down to take defense), it would work out great if Buffalo moved up 3 spots. My brother is a huge Sabres fan and says Buffalo is trying hard to trade up. Carolina could take Nurse or Ristolainen at #8 and then Shinkaruk should still be there at #9.

Trading down is an option but I really want Shinkaruk because we desperately need to add some elite offensive talent to the prospect pool.

Eggers said:
Something like that is definitely possible. But you can bet there'll be some really jealous teams a few picks below us while Lou contemplates between Ristolainen and Domi. Maybe Nurse too, but lord I really don't want that dude. I may regret that statement in the future, but he just doesn't have a high enough ceiling right now and that's not what the Devils need in the system.

FWIW, Corey Pronman had Domi and Ristolainen ranked 1 and 2 spots higher than Shinkaruk, respectively. 8, 9, and 10. Even if we do take Nurse, he's bound to be valuable in some regard even if he doesn't fit an immediate need.
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The more I think about it, and the more I feel it'll actually happen, I'm really starting to like the possibility that we get Shinkaruk. He is exactly what we need. Potential top line *goal scorer* to complement Kovy. Also, he's a LW so he can play top line w/ Kovy, and he plays RW (Parise position/half-boards) on the powerplay so he's a strong candidate for #1 PP duty. Just imagine a PP unit in the future consisting of Kovy, Larsson, Merrill, Shinkaruk/Boucher, and Henrique/Zajac (thats assuming Kovy gets off the point and starts to play a more Stamkos-esque role where he's more half-boards than point). Throw in Matteau primarily 2nd unit with some 1st unit time playing in the Clarkson role in front of the net.
 
I know there are some guys ranked ahead of Shinkaruk but at one point this year he was actually a Top 3 or 4 prospect. I don't think it's too far-fetched to say Shinkaruk has a higher ceiling than even Monahan or Lindholm. We don't need a solid 2-way center with just OK scoring ability (a guy in the Zajac mold)...we need another stud winger in the worst way.


KovalSNIPE said:
The more I think about it, and the more I feel it'll actually happen, I'm really starting to like the possibility that we get Shinkaruk. He is exactly what we need. Potential top line *goal scorer* to complement Kovy. Also, he's a LW so he can play top line w/ Kovy, and he plays RW (Parise position/half-boards) on the powerplay so he's a strong candidate for #1 PP duty. Just imagine a PP unit in the future consisting of Kovy, Larsson, Merrill, Shinkaruk/Boucher, and Henrique/Zajac (thats assuming Kovy gets off the point and starts to play a more Stamkos-esque role where he's more half-boards than point). Throw in Matteau primarily 2nd unit with some 1st unit time playing in the Clarkson role in front of the net.
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Two years ago we had 0 need for a stud winger. We needed D-men. Two years.

Draft the BPA, worry about the rest when we get there.
 
longislanddevil said:
I know there are some guys ranked ahead of Shinkaruk but at one point this year he was actually a Top 3 or 4 prospect. I don't think it's too far-fetched to say Shinkaruk has a higher ceiling than even Monahan or Lindholm. We don't need a solid 2-way center with just OK scoring ability (a guy in the Zajac mold)...we need another stud winger in the worst way.
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A winger that shoots first asks questions later. If we want a 2 way player, it'll be Horvat/Monahan.
I'm with most everyone else on board with Shink, Erne, Domi, or Lazar whomever conte /staff think will be next Jamie Benn
 
Nova III said:
If Joshua Morrissey or Shea Theodore is available at 39, I think Lou takes one of them.

They would go in the 1st Round in any other draft.
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Yes please! Don't care if it's a d-man.....

Morrissey is likely to go between picks 15 and 22 according to his rankings but Theodore might still be available at #39 - in most mocks I've seen him as high as 20 but usually between 25 and 40. I like high size and he really can be classified as an offensive d-man whereas most of our prospects are more two-way players (aside from maybe Gelinas).

In a draft like this one, which is seen to have many high-quality forwards, it's possible that some d-man get overlooked and perhaps drop a bit lower than they should.

Jones
Nurse
Ristolanen
Pullock
Zadarov
Morrissey
Hagg
Bowey
Morin
Bigras
Heatherington
Mueller
Theodore
McCoshen
Santini
Vanelli

16 D-men that have the possibility of going in the first round but with all of the good forwards available, I'd bet that maybe 9-10 d-men go in round 1, 19-20 forwards, and likely 1 goalie (Fucale).

From the list above, that means that 6 of these names go 2nd round.

Devils SHOULD be looking for a forward (Klimchuk/Bailey/Roy/Dickinson), at pick 39 unless either Fucale drops or else a big, offensive dman is available.
 
Out of curiosity, I went back to the last 5 drafts to gauge the distribution of picks between forwards, d-men and goalies.

2012 (known as a deep draft or defensemen)
Top 10: 2 forwards, 8 defenseman
Top 30: 15 forwards, 13 defenseman, 2 goalies

2011
Top 10: 7 forwards, 3 dmen (larsson. hamilton, brodin)
Top 30: 19 forwards, 11 dmen, 0 goalies

2010
Top 10: 8 forwards, 2 dmen (Gudbranson, McIlwrath)
Top 30 : 21 forwards, 7 dmen, 2 goalies

2009
Top 10: 8 forwards, 2 dmen (Hedman/Cowan)
Top 30: 10 forwards, 11 dmen, 0 goalies

2008:
Top 10: 6 forwards, 4 defensemen
Top 30: 16 forwards, 12 dmen, 2 goalies

Conclusion: I think it's pretty safe to think that Fucale will go in the 1st but probably not likely that another goalie go in round 1. The top 10 is forward heavy but we've seen at least 2 dmen go in the top 10 every year and I think that's pretty safe, especially with Jones expected top 2. Could be 3 at the most. 2010 only saw 7 dmen go in rd 1 but otherwise there is usually between 10-12 so being a forward heavy draft, I'll sick with the projection of 10 dmen in the 1st, thus leaving 19 forwards.

NJ should be looking at forward rankings of the 20-30 range as to who could be available at pick 39 and dmen rankings of 11-16. Not sure I'd take Jarry or Roy as early as #39 as we have some goalie depth and need to bolster the depth at forward.
 
Two things that I think NJ looks for is hockey sense and work ethic. Shinkaruk has both and was also a leader on his team and why I think NJ would prefer him over a player like Domi. Shinkaruk worked on the defensive aspect of his game this past year and I think could slot in very nicely for us playing on both the PP and PK.

His biggest knock appears to be size and strength, which is not uncommon with 18 year olds. While he would not step right in this year, he'd probably get in one more year at Medicine Hat, one year in Albany, possibly with a call up, and then a full time role in the 2015-16 season as a 21 yr old.

Sure, a guy like Nicushkin might be able to step right in (has he size and skill) but I'm not sold on his work ethic and ability to play a team game. Seems more like an individual talent and that's not something that NJ usually accepts...the logo on the front is more important that the name on the back.
 
I wan Lindholm but my more realistic big 3 are

Domi
Horvat
Shinkaruk

And I bet the organization likes Horvat the most out of the pack. Only a week away!
 
Nova III said:
If Joshua Morrissey or Shea Theodore is available at 39, I think Lou takes one of them.

They would go in the 1st Round in any other draft.
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You have said this about 15 different guys in the last month.
 
wait is someone going to do the rangers suck whistle at the draft? I'm usually against it but ONE would be funny
 
Edmonton is stacked w/ fw's and need to unload one. Three of them we're 1st overall. No way are they taking a forward w/ all the talented d men on the board. Nashville doesn't see a potential replacement for Suter? Why do so many people think it'll be all forwards going 1st ten. There's drop in talent after the top 4 forwards (as far being NHL "ready")
WE can't be shocked if lou decides to take Darnell Nurse 9th overall. (if they're convinced he'll be another Scott Stevens).
However, we really need a scoring forward as close to nhl ready as possible.
 
They just signed their Suter replacement to a contract extension and have come out saying they want a C, i.e. Barkov.

The consensus for forwards for most of the picks above is that, yes there is a dropoff after 4, but they are still better than the forwards.

I don't want Nurse at all. I'd rather take Ristolainen who I would want behind Pulock.
 
elindholm said:
Edmonton is stacked w/ fw's and need to unload one. Three of them we're 1st overall. No way are they taking a forward w/ all the talented d men on the board. Nashville doesn't see a potential replacement for Suter? Why do so many people think it'll be all forwards going 1st ten. There's drop in talent after the top 4 forwards (as far being NHL "ready")
WE can't be shocked if lou decides to take Darnell Nurse 9th overall. (if they're convinced he'll be another Scott Stevens).
However, we really need a scoring forward as close to nhl ready as possible.
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Lou has already said that he wants to take a forward w/ this pick, which is something he NEVER does. We also have no idea what the Devils draft board looks like, so while some of us and mockers may say Shinkaruk or Monahan if they're available, the Devils could easily go some other direction, like Domi or who knows. The Devils scouting team have always showed the willingness to go against popular opinion.

I'm not saying they wouldnt take Nurse, but the chance of us using the #9 on a defenseman is not very high at all. I think the only way we take a defenseman is if we trade down and use one of the picks we acquire in a trade down on one. We have many d-men ready to at least try and take the next step and even more still in juniors that will be pro soon.
 
elindholm said:
Edmonton is stacked w/ fw's and need to unload one. Three of them we're 1st overall. No way are they taking a forward w/ all the talented d men on the board. Nashville doesn't see a potential replacement for Suter? Why do so many people think it'll be all forwards going 1st ten. There's drop in talent after the top 4 forwards (as far being NHL "ready")
WE can't be shocked if lou decides to take Darnell Nurse 9th overall. (if they're convinced he'll be another Scott Stevens).
However, we really need a scoring forward as close to nhl ready as possible.
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I bet you Edmonton takes a center. If Monahan is there at 7 I think Edmonton takes him.
 
I think Edmonton is one of the candidates that could trade their pick. If they stay at 7, I think they'll go BPA.
 
im interested in the notion that CARs 5th is available. we could get someone top-tier. we should be looking to do it
 
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