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Prospect Info: 2013-2014 Rangers Prospects Thread *Part II* (Player Stats in Post #1; Updated 1/31)

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McDonagh said:
USA U17 team just demolished Quebec 9-1 and is gonna be playing Pacific Canada or Russia in the gold medal game tomorrow. Colin White is having an unreal tournament.
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One can only cower in fear and hope he doesn't materialize into the stud his father was.
 
Can someone tell me if there's a way to normalize junior stats. Meaning, they almost mean nothing. Many players have unreal stats but suck. However people drool over some stats and they go 1st overall. Is there some sort of barrier that you have to pass where you become a top prospect? Or a player can have 1,000 points in a season but you still have to look at his skills?
 
SnowblindNYR said:
Can someone tell me if there's a way to normalize junior stats. Meaning, they almost mean nothing. Many players have unreal stats but suck. However people drool over some stats and they go 1st overall. Is there some sort of barrier that you have to pass where you become a top prospect? Or a player can have 1,000 points in a season but you still have to look at his skills?
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Over 100 points makes him a high ceiling prospect, but guarantees nothing. Over 120 makes him a star. Over 150 is generational offensive talent. This is for teens, if someone is an overager, they always score a lot, but that should be mostly ignored.
 
Beacon said:
Over 100 points makes him a high ceiling prospect, but guarantees nothing. Over 120 makes him a star. Over 150 is generational offensive talent. This is for teens, if someone is an overager, they always score a lot, but that should be mostly ignored.
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The bolded is key. A lot of "leading scorers" in Canadian junior leagues are 20-21 years old.

Somebody like our own Josh Nicholls, had 87 points in the WHL last year, but was an overager. Overagers know their leagues inside and out, and that usually inflates their stats heavily. An overager scoring 100 points should just be ignored, they are almost definitely not a high ceiling prospect.

Also, pay attention to prospects that are very undersized. Like Nic Petan, a Jets prospect playing for Team Canada in the WJC. He had like 120 points last year, but he's not going to be a star. Severely undersized and some of the things he does with the puck he could never get away with at the NHL level.

There's a lot of ways to distinguish the actual future stars over one-trick ponies. Just gotta keep your eyes on their actual skill sets.
 
Beacon said:
Over 100 points makes him a high ceiling prospect, but guarantees nothing. Over 120 makes him a star. Over 150 is generational offensive talent. This is for teens, if someone is an overager, they always score a lot, but that should be mostly ignored.
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Thanks. What's Duclair on pace for and what numbers did MSC put up?
 
SnowblindNYR said:
Thanks. What's Duclair on pace for and what numbers did MSC put up?
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Duclair's on pace for around 104 points, which is quite impressive for an 18 year old. He would have more with better linemates, but he's missing half his team to the WJC and injuries.

MSC had a stellar year after his draft year with 105 points in 70 games I believe, but he's one of those prospects who's skill set translates badly to the NHL. Very undersized, bad skater, inconsistent effort, almost no physical play, it just doesn't work. Those are the prospects you don't get over hyped about.

What separates Duclair from the other two notable Rangers juniors prospects with huge numbers (Thomas, St. Croix) is that he doesn't have the skill set problems that those two do. Thomas is undersized, not a good enough skater to make up for it, and is very one dimensional. St Croix. is much of the same, except he's inconsistent, shies away from physicality all together, and is a bad skater. Duclair is a phenomenal skater, with willingness to battle for pucks, good but not great defensive skills, has an impressive frame for being 5' 11", etc.
 
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SnowblindNYR said:
Can someone tell me if there's a way to normalize junior stats. Meaning, they almost mean nothing. Many players have unreal stats but suck. However people drool over some stats and they go 1st overall. Is there some sort of barrier that you have to pass where you become a top prospect? Or a player can have 1,000 points in a season but you still have to look at his skills?
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No, you need to just be a really good hockey player overall to make it to the NHL. You can score a lot of pts in Juniors without being a really good hockey player overall.
 
Beacon said:
Over 100 points makes him a high ceiling prospect, but guarantees nothing. Over 120 makes him a star. Over 150 is generational offensive talent. This is for teens, if someone is an overager, they always score a lot, but that should be mostly ignored.
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I doubt you typed this while keeping a straight face.

You simply cannot judge a prospect on a points scale, forget one as ridiculous as "150 = generational talent".

The correct answer to this is that there is no way of normalizing junior stats.
 
Beacon said:
For all the crapping on Buch, he's had a very solid tournament so far. 5 games, 7 points is excellent for an 18 year old.

And skating past the American bench isn't the worst thing in the world. When I read the discussion here, I thought he jumped into the American bench or something or he stood over a fallen American mocking him. What he did is no big deal, get over it, what a bunch of cry babies here.
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Completely agree on the "incident" and evaluation of Buch overall game this championship. We should be discussing here how good his game sense is, soft hands controlling puck or defensive play (also impressive for an 18 year-old. He seems to be a type of player that other linemates need to look for because something good is going to happen.
 
Three shots on goal for Team Canada in the 3rd period. That was, one hell of an effort from the Finns. Played a perfect game.
 
SnowblindNYR said:
You know what's funny? The stereotypes for Russians used to be "lazy Russian that just wants to collect a check and has no passion for the game unlike those Canadians". Not all of a sudden they're not modest like the Canadians because they get excited about scoring goals and winning. Seems like HF and many NA fans have a problem with Russians no matter what they do.
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I don't have an issue with Russians what so ever. If that was a Canadian or American player or some random dude from Kazakhstan doing it I'd still have an issue with it. I don't like showboating.
 
Watching Buchnevich against Canada is giving me a chub. Forced the Canadian defensemen to take a penalty against him twice.
 
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