Prospect Info: 2013-2014 Rangers Prospects Thread *Part II* (Player Stats in Post #1; Updated 1/31)
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I'm very intrigued by his skating.
It's not explosive lower body strength like McDonagh. The way he hunches his shoulders reminds me of Subban. Very unique skating style.
It's not explosive lower body strength like McDonagh. The way he hunches his shoulders reminds me of Subban. Very unique skating style.
Beacon
Embrace the tank
- May 28, 2007
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The Eastern side (Stockholm) is better than the Western side where the WJC is taking place. Malmo is an ok town, but besides a castle-turned-miseum, not much there. The town of Lund is nearby, but besides the university there with its botanical garden, it's just a small town.
Honestly, if you need to be in Malmo, you should stay and hang out in Copenhagen, a real city with stuff to do and enjoy. Sounds like it's in a different country, but EU is all one now and it is very close by train or by car (think of traveling from Park Slope to the Upper East Side).
yeah ive heard copenhagen is sick while malmo isnt as nice. that part of sweden is also big into soccer over hockey.
SergeConstantin74
Always right.
- Jul 7, 2007
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Duclair is the 2nd star of December in the QMJHL.
http://theqmjhl.ca/article/dubeau-d...s-three-stars-of-the-month-of-december/156128
http://theqmjhl.ca/article/dubeau-d...s-three-stars-of-the-month-of-december/156128
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Duclair is having a great year. Third in scoring in the QMJHL, one point behind the number two guy with three games in hand. The number two guy is also a year older and playing with Mantha, who has been unreal this season.
He's going to shoot up our prospect list if he can continue this strong play through the end of the season.
He's going to shoot up our prospect list if he can continue this strong play through the end of the season.
Raspewtin
Stay at home defenseman hater
- May 30, 2013
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I don't remember hearing anything about that, but he did hurt his ankle pretty bad and he missed 5 weeks.
Will Duclair possibly be a 1st line player for the Rangers in the future? If so, how likely is that?
SergeConstantin74
Always right.
- Jul 7, 2007
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No, that was Grigorenko. Grigorenko had mono during the playoffs prior to his draft. He didn't do the tests at the combine because of that.
Duclair had an ankle injury that took him out for 5 weeks in Oct-Nov 2012. When he came back, he had strong months in November and December but in January, everything fell apart. Something happened in the locker room in Quebec. Erne and Duclair were suspended by their teammates (mostly the leaders). They eventually only missed a practice after apologizing to their teammates. Erne and Duclair both fell in the draft because of the suspension and rumored bad attitude. Duclair started playing better near the end of the season and in the playoffs though.
This season, Duclair acts and plays like a leader. It was him who went to the coach and asked him to play on the PK. The change of head coach was a good thing for him I think. The pressure of the draft year probably didn't help as well last season.
Beacon
Embrace the tank
- May 28, 2007
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Possible? Yes. Probable? No. But let's see how he develops. Top 6 is a definite possibility. Would love it if he became a 25-25 player.
Our left side is starting to look much better than a year ago. Hagelin and Kreider ahead playing well. Duclair and Buch have top 6 potential, and I assume one of Hrivik or Yogan will be a quality bottom 6 LW.
In short, I think he has that potential.
We can discuss what a first line player is, it seems like most players are first line players for us from time to time (were Dawes, Prucha, Hagelin and co '1st line players'?).
But Duclair definitely got that potential. I love that he is such a good skater. That is biggest strength probably as opposed to someone like Thomas who was a sniper or Grachev who was big or MSC who was a playmaker and so forth. Or even Kristo who is born a goto scorer. Duclair is not only a good skater in straight lines, he skates really well overall. That will help him greatly to just get involved at the AHL / NHL level. He also has really good offensive instincts. And while I have not seen a ton of him, he doesn't seem to be that high maintainance.
History is not short of players like Duclair, even much more impressive in junior leagues, Duclair isn't even at the WJC for example (Dawes played in three tournaments right?), that fails but Duclair is interesting for sure.
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Raspewtin
Stay at home defenseman hater
- May 30, 2013
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He has the talent to be one. Probably a 30% chance he emerges as a legit 1st liner, really.
The thing I like about his development path is that he's a bus driver. He's leading his Remparts team right now where almost all their quality players are missing through injury or WJC participation. He's playing with meh linemates and literally carrying the team. That's not a very Ranger type player, as all the forwards we draft seem to work best in a complimentary situation. If we can get this kid to be a 30-30 player I'll be absolutely thrilled.
A 30% chance he emerges as a legit 1st liner? Jesus ****ing Christ. Only about 25% of SECOND ROUND picks have legitimate NHL careers of ANY KIND. Duclair was a late third round pick. If we want to be generous we could assign him a 30% chance of playing a full season in the NHL in any capacity. Let alone having a lengthy NHL career. Let alone being a ****ing first liner.
We never learn from our mistakes. We hype the **** out of prospects, and then when they turn pro everyone becomes stunned and hits the panic/trade button once they struggle (Kreider, for instance). Or, they don't work out at all and people's minds are blown (Grachev, for example). Duclair is looking like a real good value pick right now, but give the hype machine a break.
BBKers
Registered User
Your percentage is probably off but I hope you are right
Dawes & Grachev come to mind - but somehow it seems like DuClair is pulling his own weight in a different way
Time will tell...
Beacon
Embrace the tank
- May 28, 2007
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A second rounder has a 20% chance of an NHL career, but a third rounder only a 10%. Duclair was drafted in the third round.
He was also thought to have a higher ceiling than most third round picks, so his odds were lower than 10%. (If two players are drafted in about the same spot, and one has a higher potential, why was the other drafted around the same spot? Because the lower ceiling guy has better odds.)
Half a year ago, his statistical odds were maybe 5-6% to have any kind of an NHL career.
Did he rise since then? No doubt. But did he go from 5% chance of being an NHLer to having a 30% chance of being a first liner? No way.
If he continues to improve, the sky is the limit, but let's just say his odds of playing in the NHL are 25-30% and the odds of being a first liner at maybe 5%. And this is being generous at this stage.
If he keeps up the pace and scores 105-110 points, I will give him 50-50 odds of making the NHL and 10% chance of being a first liner. Again, being generous with that one.
If next year he improves on his current performance, then we can start taking about a 30% chance of being a first liner. But that's 1.5 years away.
Yeah, but for a kid like this it is also real important that he isn't too high maintainance.
You know, its kind of the same to be a star in the Q as it is in the NHL. The stars are a bit bigger stars in the Q, but its compareable. To get a good picture, think of like a Jaromir Jagr, or someone like that, the most effective way for a player to really produce is to constantly have the puck, slow the tempo down, change tempo, find ways to exploit a D, and do the same thing over and over and over again. That is what the best kids in all junior leagues are doing. And they are great at it.
The problem is that you get a heck of a lot smaller space to do it in the NHL as opposed to the Q. There are at any give time 3-4 players, or say even 20, in the entire NHL that can do that at diffrent degrees. Extremely few late round picks end up among those top 3-4 or even top 20 in the entire league.
So the key is really for a player to not only do it in the Junior league, but to also have the ability to much less real well at a higher level.
That is one thing. Another thing is that it is -- real easy to turn up with the puck in the Q -- and this is something that also is unique for the Q. If you are real good at going up against a D with speed under your skates, you will have Christmas every day in the Q. This is also an aspect that is a bit scary when watching this league. You can see how well a player is to execute odd-man rushes or just "rushes". But you don't see how good he is at getting them. But I would be a lot more afraid of this if Duclair was a bigger player. You know, like a Steve Bernier was a mega star in the Q. 6'2 225 lbs, and he has good hands and can build up speed. Nobody could stop him in the Q and everyone saw a PF score on one end-to-end rush after the other. And he was real good in those situations. But in the NHL, what defense ever lets a PF that size pick up a puck in his own end and skate with it up ice to challenge a D 1 on 1? When Bernier got up to the NHL, he never even saw the situations he had in the Q. He needed time to build up speed in the neutral zone and backcheckers ate him up.
In these areas, I like Duclair a lot. He is just a lot more Maxim Afinegenov than Robbie Schremp if you get what I mean. Afinegenov is a bit old example, but he could play his style 5 minutes a night on a 4th line just as well as 20+ minutes a night on a 1st line.
Antony Duclair reminds me a bit of two players in terms of style, Louie Eriksson and Simon Gagne (another Q player). He will really need to develop well for the coming 2-3 years to get to those levels, but you never know...
I don't know about percentages here. 5%? 10%? 30%? I would probably guess more like 1 of 20 like him actually really putting everything together and becoming a 1st lineer in the NHL, and that could be a bit high. But, that is a good bet none the less. Looking back the last 10 years at players in his mold in the Q, you will mostly find guys like PAP, Maxim Talbot, Jason Pominville, David Desharnais, Mathieu Perreault, Antoin Vermette and Ladislav Nagy among players that has scored a lot of pts and made it while being drafted outside the 1st round. If you go back a little longer, the playmakers Riberio and Richards stands out as very rare non-1st round picks that has become stars despite not being drafted in the 1st round.
To summerize, normally you can be darn sceptical of a player from the Q that is passed over by everyone several times but that still put up a lot of pts. The guys that makes it from that league is often drafted very high. OTOH, I see no reason for Duclair to not be able to come in and compete in the AHL to start with. If he is a rare example of a player in that mold that still makes it, you can see among the examples above that odds are that he will have to adjust and become more of 2-way player to start with with a bit of an offensive game on top of everything else (like say Pominville, Vermette or Talbot). But to some extent, it is also up to us to do something with him.
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Beacon
Embrace the tank
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St. Croix scored as much as Duclair in a tougher league at the same age, and now he is in the ECHL. He will be in the AHL next year, but MSC is very far from the NHL.
Duclair needs to show that he doesn't max out at 100 points. He needs to either show a two-way game or dire a lot more than 100 points.
Speed makes Duclair different then MSC, but not different enough.
Duclair needs to show that he doesn't max out at 100 points. He needs to either show a two-way game or dire a lot more than 100 points.
Speed makes Duclair different then MSC, but not different enough.
UAGoalieGuy
Registered User
MSC is also severely undersized. Not to mention his skating was always in question. Duclair doesn't have those issues.
Both St. Croix and Duclair are about 5'11" and 180. St. Croix isn't "severely" undersized, just a bit smaller than you'd like. Duclair is about the same size. In his favor is that he's a couple years younger and could still add something to his frame.
Duclair's skating is great, though. St. Croix's was average, at absolute best. My other thing with St. Croix is that while his physical movement is just average, I don't think he analyzes and reacts that fast either. He's creative and has good vision, but he just seems a second too slow with his decisions to be a successful pro. He could be a really good prospect if he could just get the mind working a little quicker.
UAGoalieGuy
Registered User
UAGoalieGuy
Registered User
The USA-Russia game is in the 3rd period right now. USA is down 4-3. Buch has a goal and Skjei has an assist.
UAGoalieGuy
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