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Yes it is goal differential.
Here is the goal differential after today's games...
Latvia: +18
Germany: +15
Denmark: -1
Slovenia: -3
Kazakhstan: +1
Hungary: -30
So as you can see, the only realistic way Denmark will win this tournament (providing they beat Hungary) is if Slovenia beats Latvia and Kazakhstan beats Germany....which is possible, but not likely.
As for Germany and Latvia being tied at the top....Germany does have a chance to overtake Latvia based on goal differential, but with the two clubs' respective opponents, I'm not confident that will happen.
Here is the goal differential after today's games...
Latvia: +18
Germany: +15
Denmark: -1
Slovenia: -3
Kazakhstan: +1
Hungary: -30
So as you can see, the only realistic way Denmark will win this tournament (providing they beat Hungary) is if Slovenia beats Latvia and Kazakhstan beats Germany....which is possible, but not likely.
As for Germany and Latvia being tied at the top....Germany does have a chance to overtake Latvia based on goal differential, but with the two clubs' respective opponents, I'm not confident that will happen.