200 games left for Ovechkin to score 108 goals if he wants to do it faster than Gretzky, can he do it?

[Toby91ca]

I actually don’t think beating the record in Lea games would be as significant as many would think either. Most people forget or don’t know how Gretzky’s game was severely impacted by a back injury (hit from behind into the boards) in 1990. He was never the same player after that…he still put up good point totals but nowhere near prior totals and he wasn’t a goal scorer by any stretch anymore either….he scored at a clip of 0.80 per game in the 80’s.

The better players to compare Ovi against are already beat. People can try to look at guys like Bossy and Lemieux, but longevity is part of the deal + while Bossy’s gpg stay is better than Ovi’s, you can certainly look at 80’s for him and discount that difference

 

[filinski77]

I actually don’t think beating the record in Lea games would be as significant as many would think either. Most people forget or don’t know how Gretzky’s game was severely impacted by a back injury (hit from behind into the boards) in 1990. He was never the same player after that…he still put up good point totals but nowhere near prior totals and he wasn’t a goal scorer by any stretch anymore either….he scored at a clip of 0.80 per game in the 80’s.

The better players to compare Ovi against are already beat. People can try to look at guys like Bossy and Lemieux, but longevity is part of the deal + while Bossy’s gpg stay is better than Ovi’s, you can certainly look at 80’s for him and discount that difference

This injury happened in September 1991 right? If so, that's right at the start of the 1991-1992 season

Gretzky was already well on his decline as a goal scorer by the time this happened:

82' -> 85' = averaging 0.89 to 1.18 goals/gp
86' -> 89' = averaging 0.63 to 0.78 goals/gp
90' -> 91' = averaging 0.53 to 0.55 goals/gp

He gets injured at the start of the 92' season and goes:

92' -> 94' = averaging 0.36 to 0.47 goals/gp
95' -> 99' = averaging 0.13 to 0.30 goals/gp

Unless I'm missing something, it looks to me that he followed the normal aging curve for goal scorers.

 

[wetcoast]

This injury happened in September 1991 right? If so, that's right at the start of the 1991-1992 season

Gretzky was already well on his decline as a goal scorer by the time this happened:

82' -> 85' = averaging 0.89 to 1.18 goals/gp
86' -> 89' = averaging 0.63 to 0.78 goals/gp
90' -> 91' = averaging 0.53 to 0.55 goals/gp

He gets injured at the start of the 92' season and goes:

92' -> 94' = averaging 0.36 to 0.47 goals/gp
95' -> 99' = averaging 0.13 to 0.30 goals/gp

Unless I'm missing something, it looks to me that he followed the normal aging curve for goal scorers.

Either way it probably doesn't matter too much as both Gretzky and Ovi have already solidified their places in history.

Gretzky is seen by many as the greatest player to ever play and Ovi is seen by as many people as the greatest goal scorer of all time.

Or perhaps people will get caught in the Mullet...

 

[Golden_Jet]

I don't really see how as owners make a boatload of money on playoff home games.

35% goes to revenue sharing.

 

[wetcoast]

35% goes to revenue sharing.

Good to know but conversely as Ovi chases the record exactly what "extra" revenue is going to the Capitals?

 

[Toby91ca]

Good to know but conversely as Ovi chases the record exactly what "extra" revenue is going to the Capitals?

If the team is not doing well, attendance likely drops sharply, but likely not as much as people will keep coming just to see him go for the record….guessing that is the argument.

Not sure how significant that impact may be though…I would be more inclined to suggest he’s earned the right to play as long as he wants, or at least until breaking the record….after nothing is in sight, someone may sit him down if it’s obvious he can’t contribute at a certain level

 

[ViD]

I believe Leonsis will have the team play him until he breaks it. If it means 4th liner + PP specialist so be it. He sees this as bigger than year to year competitiveness and it will bring fans to the building.

Seems like the right play to me actually, baring a locker room revolt if he just doesn't have it at that point.

You’re absolutely right, it’s an incredible marketing thing to pursue even if he slows down significantly and they only play him at PP and re-sign for a year until he does

 

[Mulletman]

Most people forget or don’t know how Gretzky’s game was severely impacted by a back injury (hit from behind into the boards) in 1990. He was never the same player after that…he still put up good point totals but nowhere near prior totals and he wasn’t a goal scorer by any stretch anymore either…

Dude it's kind of hard to "forget" that as @The Panther has been hammering home that point in numerous Ovechkin threads over the years, including many other "explanations" to why Gretzky failed as a goal scorer later on in his career. That guy is elite at making excuses for Gretzky!

 

[psycat]

The NHL averaged between 3.67 and 4.01 goals per game in the 80s.

In contrast, the average in the 2010s was comprised between 2.71 and 3.02 goals per game.

It was factually harder to score a goal in the 2010s compared to the 80s.

It's also harder to score alot of goals if you also put up 120+ assists at the same time as opposed to being a turret at the powerplay.

 

[The Panther]

Not that anyone with 5 brain cells takes Mulletman seriously, but in case anyone was wondering, every single thing he accuses me of saying / arguing in his above post, is completely false.

I am now putting him on my permanent "ignore" list, as having to defend myself every time he tells lies about me is tiresome and, frankly, beneath my attention.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

It's also harder to score alot of goals if you also put up 120+ assists at the same time as opposed to being a turret at the powerplay.

You don’t need to shoot like a turret when goalies let in beach balls from the blue line with no screens.

 

[Toby91ca]

You don’t need to shoot like a turret when goalies let in beach balls from the blue line with no screens.

Super exaggeration....how much hockey did you watch in the 80's or are you just watching highlights of goals? Were goalies smaller, especially equipment? Yes. Did the puck seem to go in easier? Yes.....but it's not that drastic when you start thinking about equipment changes on the skater side as well.

Take the average scoring per game in the 1980's and compare to this season....scoring was 18% higher in the 80's, not 50-75%. Also, scoring this year is up 18% vs. only 6 years ago.....does that mean goals are going in like beach balls now vs. 6 years ago? Scoring is up 26% vs. 2004.

 

[abo9]

I believe Leonsis will have the team play him until he breaks it. If it means 4th liner + PP specialist so be it. He sees this as bigger than year to year competitiveness and it will bring fans to the building.

Seems like the right play to me actually, baring a locker room revolt if he just doesn't have it at that point.

I'd be curious to see the actual difference, but personal feelings aside, breaking such a huge record has to be amazing financially right? And a little easier to control than a Cup run? In addition to the reputation boost to the franchise who managed to keep the record holder with them until he retired?

He's still playing solidly. People have a weird way to use English at times, calling superstar "done" because they dont sweep the awards anymore.

 

[McVespa99]

Even if he doesn't match Gretzky's pace I'm more impressed by Ovechkin for not doing it in the 80s.

The thing everyone here is neglecting to mention is that Gretzky was a "Pass First" player. Which makes a HUGE difference. If Ovy was a pass first guy he wouldn't have half the goals he does. Before you rain the hatred down on me I love Ovy as a player but even as a goal scorer he isnt Gretzky.

 

[Midnight Judges]

The thing everyone here is neglecting to mention is that Gretzky was a "Pass First" player. Which makes a HUGE difference. If Ovy was a pass first guy he wouldn't have half the goals he does. Before you rain the hatred down on me I love Ovy as a player but even as a goal scorer he isnt Gretzky.

Ovie would likely also have substantially more points if he was used less as a shooter.

 

[Toby91ca]

Ovie would likely also have substantially more points if he was used less as a shooter.

Really?

 

[Lukin1978]

Ovi is getting there faster and passing 900

 

[Sinistril]

17 seasons from 2005/06--2021/22 =17 50+ goalscorers not named Ovechkin
17 seasons from 1979/80--1995/96 =114 50+ goalscorers not named Gretzky
7 times more.

Not to mention with less teams the chances of being a 50 goal scorer were higher...

Really?

Argument cuts both ways. People saying Gretzky would have scored more goals are also chasing a counterfactual

Super exaggeration....how much hockey did you watch in the 80's or are you just watching highlights of goals? Were goalies smaller, especially equipment? Yes. Did the puck seem to go in easier? Yes.....but it's not that drastic when you start thinking about equipment changes on the skater side as well.

Take the average scoring per game in the 1980's and compare to this season....scoring was 18% higher in the 80's, not 50-75%. Also, scoring this year is up 18% vs. only 6 years ago.....does that mean goals are going in like beach balls now vs. 6 years ago? Scoring is up 26% vs. 2004.

Kinda yeah.

 

[Toby91ca]

Not to mention with less teams the chances of being a 50 goal scorer were higher...


Argument cuts both ways. People saying Gretzky would have scored more goals are also chasing a counterfactual


Kinda yeah.

Not really, you have to be the type of player where that actually makes sense.

 

[bobbyking]

saw semi peak ovi today

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Super exaggeration....how much hockey did you watch in the 80's or are you just watching highlights of goals? Were goalies smaller, especially equipment? Yes. Did the puck seem to go in easier? Yes.....but it's not that drastic when you start thinking about equipment changes on the skater side as well.

Take the average scoring per game in the 1980's and compare to this season....scoring was 18% higher in the 80's, not 50-75%. Also, scoring this year is up 18% vs. only 6 years ago.....does that mean goals are going in like beach balls now vs. 6 years ago? Scoring is up 26% vs. 2004.

Well goaltending is noticeably worse across the league compared to even 10 years ago… or shooters improved … or a combination of both.

To me, it’s a little bit of column A and a little bit of column B.

You look at the league leaders in SV% in the 2014-15 season. 17 goaltenders posted a .920 SV% or better in 20+ GP. In contrast, only 6 goaltenders have achieved that last year in at least 20 GP.

League average during Ovi’s statistical peak between 2007 and 2010 was 2.84 goals per game. During Gretzky’s peak (82-86), it was 3.93 goals per game (38% higher).

By the eye test, I don’t see many slap shots on the rush going in anymore, although it was a common type of goal in the 80s.

 

[filinski77]

Well goaltending is noticeably worse across the league compared to even 10 years ago… or shooters improved … or a combination of both.

To me, it’s a little bit of column A and a little bit of column B.

You look at the league leaders in SV% in the 2014-15 season. 17 goaltenders posted a .920 SV% or better in 20+ GP. In contrast, only 6 goaltenders have achieved that last year in at least 20 GP.

League average during Ovi’s statistical peak between 2007 and 2010 was 2.84 goals per game. During Gretzky’s peak (82-86), it was 3.93 goals per game (38% higher).

By the eye test, I don’t see many slap shots on the rush going in anymore, although it was a common type of goal in the 80s.

I think the reason for the increases scorings over the last 4 years are so are from a combination of the 3:

1) Rules requiring smaller goalie equipment.

2) More crackdown on slashing/hooking etc. leading to allowing skilled players more freedom in the offensive rushes and zones

3) More fast/small/mobile defensemen that are more offensively focused

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

I think the reason for the increases scorings over the last 4 years are so are from a combination of the 3:

1) Rules requiring smaller goalie equipment.

2) More crackdown on slashing/hooking etc. leading to allowing skilled players more freedom in the offensive rushes and zones

3) More fast/small/mobile defensemen that are more offensively focused

Those are good points as well. I do think there are fewer elite goaltenders in the league compared to 10 years ago.

The era of Price, Lundqvist, Quick, Crawford, Fleury, Holtby etc. was a short golden age of goaltending.

 

[KaosKommando]

We should already know not to count him out when it comes to scoring. He's 37 and 8 in 14 thus far this season.