GDT: 2 losses and no GDT

[Do Make Say Think]

I mean good enough for what? We lost in overtime. Went .500 on a road trip we were worried about.

I agree on the last part. No offense outside of the top and literally NO HELP coming to speak of

I don't think we are good enough to make the playoffs as is. In fact, I'm sure of it: this roster is mediocre and players like Batherson and Norris aren't consistent enough for this roster to go far.

Still, this is first year in what? 7?! That we look like an actual, legit NHL team so there's been very real progress.

 

[StoicSensFan]

I'm optimistic that we'll get better towards the end of the season, and put ourselves in the playoffs early.

Let's just take a moment to remember where we were last year at this time. 16 points from a wildcard. Now we're only 1 point out.

 

[Micklebot]

It's understandable to be disappointed, considering how the last 5 games have gone (recency bias). But if you take a step back, you're right, it is fine.

With that said, it's not "let's just keep doing what we're doing" fine.

There are clear issues that need to be addressed within the existing lineup, and if Staios is serious about making a wildcard run, he needs to add 1 or 2 depth pieces pronto

We got hit with key injuries (Ullmark) and a flu bug ravaging the team and some depth injuries (Amadio, Hamonic and JBD) at the tail end of the longest road game stretch in franchise history, it's unfortunate but not likely representative of how the team can play.

Get home, regroup and get healthy. That will make a big difference imo

 

[Do Make Say Think]

I'm optimistic that we'll get better towards the end of the season, and put ourselves in the playoffs early.

Let's just take a moment to remember where we were last year at this time. 16 points from a wildcard. Now we're only 1 point out.

Yeah it isn't all bad, the team looks like it belongs.

It just isn't good enough, IMO, and that is extremely annoying when we basically tanked for 7 years; even if a lot of it was unwillingly.

 

[darude]

If you thought we'd need a winning record on a 9 game road trip to make the playoffs, you probably don't understand how road vs home records tend to work. A 500 road record is good for 5th in the east, only Tor, NJD, Was and Fla have a better than 500 road record.

I'm not talking about a .500 record overall though, I'm talking about a .500 record *for this trip*. We needed > .500 to make up for being worse on the road earlier this year.

If we wanna talk overall, currently our 9-11-2 record puts us below teams like the Lightning, Wings, Flyers, who are all right there with us in points (relative to us in standings: TBL +4, Wings -1, Flyers -2).

If this is a playoff team, we should be better in these games, especially road games against divisional opponents chasing us. We're playing great against the division so far, tonight was a bit of a letdown. We suck against the metro for some reason.

 

[Micklebot]

I'm optimistic that we'll get better towards the end of the season, and put ourselves in the playoffs early.

Let's just take a moment to remember where we were last year at this time. 16 points from a wildcard. Now we're only 1 point out.

1 pt out, but in by pts%

 

[StoicSensFan]

1 pt out, but in by pts%

I was too lazy to do the calc from last Jan 7 based on point percentage

 

[darude]

Who said that?

The idea was more about staying alive in the thick of things, and not letting the season slip away. We lost Ullmark a few games into it the trip and finished .500 on the road, while overall our .526 points percentage ranks 7th in the East.

We have the 5th easiest schedule moving forward, and 24 out of our last 43 are in our barn. This isn’t a bad position to be in to make the playoffs.

I've seen nothing in the past nearly decade that makes me think we can trust the "easy" parts of our schedule. Case in point: tonight.

This team has frustratingly underperformed against weaker opposition constantly over the years. I take nothing for granted.

 

[DackellDuck]

We got hit with key injuries (Ullmark) and a flu bug ravaging the team and some depth injuries (Amadio, Hamonic and JBD) at the tail end of the longest road game stretch in franchise history, it's unfortunate but not likely representative of how the team can play.

Get home, regroup and get healthy. That will make a big difference imo

Sure, but most of the other teams we're battling with have had hardships that they've had to overcome too.

Columbus - self-explanatory
Boston - Swayman missed training camp, have a new coach
Montreal - Laine missed time, Hutson needed to find his groove
Etc.

All of these teams have reasons to believe the next 41 games will be even better than the first 41, organically. But some of them will be extra aggressive and go out and make their team better via trade.

Will we be that team? We can't just get a little better. One or two of these teams is going to go on a very, very good run and separate. How can we do that?

It'd be one thing if it was us and another team in the mix. But there are 10 teams in the mix.

It's great that we're not completely out of it, but at this point, it's as likely we end up with another top 10 pick as it is that we make the playoffs.

We're 3 points out of being 15th in the league (amazing let's double down in the offseason!). But we're also 3 points out of being 26th in the league (disaster we need to rebuild the core!).

 

[Micklebot]

I'm not talking about a .500 record overall though, I'm talking about a .500 record *for this trip*. We needed > .500 to make up for being worse on the road earlier this year.

If we wanna talk overall, currently our 9-11-2 record puts us below teams like the Lightning, Wings, Flyers, who are all right there with us in points (relative to us in standings: TBL +4, Wings -1, Flyers -2).

If this is a playoff team, we should be better in these games, especially road games against divisional opponents chasing us. We're playing great against the division so far, tonight was a bit of a letdown. We suck against the metro for some reason.

Then that's even dumber, we have more than half a season left, and are currently in a wild card spot by pts %

The season isn't dictated by nine games, and going 500 on the road this trip did help make up for earlier.

 

[Micklebot]

Sure, but most of the other teams we're battling with have had hardships that they've had to overcome too.

Columbus - self-explanatory
Boston - Swayman missed training camp, have a new coach
Montreal - Laine missed time, Hutson needed to find his groove
Etc.

All of these teams have reasons to believe the next 41 games will be even better than the first 41, organically. But some of them will be extra aggressive and go out and make their team better via trade.

Will we be that team? We can't just get a little better. One or two of these teams is going to go on a very, very good run and separate. How can we do that?

It'd be one thing if it was us and another team in the mix. But there are 10 teams in the mix.

It's great that we're not completely out of it, but at this point, I think it's as likely we end up with another top 10 pick as it is that we make the playoffs.

Wow you are reaaaallly reaching on that Boston one.

Clb is the only one that is overcoming a hardship currently. MTL lost laine and stunk while he was out. They are playing better now that he's back, that not the same as me pointing out that we are having a slump while dealing with hardships that are hopefully short term. The point is we should see things get back on track just by getting players back healthy and not being on a franchise longest road trip. Our current play isn't indicative of how this team can perform,

 

[DackellDuck]

Wow you are reaaaallly reaching on that Boston one.

Clb is the only one that is overcoming a hardship currently. MTL lost laine and stunk while he was out. They are playing better now that he's back, that not the same as me pointing out that we are having a slump while dealing with hardships that are hopefully short term. The point is we should see things get back on track just by getting players back healthy and not being on a franchise longest road trip. Our current play isn't indicative of how this team can perform,

I don't think our current play is indicative of how our team can perform. But I think the first 40 games is a pretty good view of what our team is, right now. We've had periods of good health, and periods of bad health. Home stands, and road trips. Peaks, and valleys. That'll continue in the 2nd half.

We're currently on pace for 86 points on the season and battling 9 teams for (probably) one playoff spot. Still in the thick of the mix, which is great!

But like I said, we're 3 pts out of being in the top half of the league, which would be amazing, and also 3 pts out of having a top 5 pick, which would be a disaster. We're on a tight rope.

Some of the 9 teams that we're battling with are going to be aggressive. They're going to add. We might wake up tomorrow and see that the Blue Jackets have traded for Elias Pettersson.

Now's the time to be aggressive and see how we can improve this core for the second half of the season. Getting healthy will not be enough, IMO, and it's unlikely we'll ever be completely healthy. When Amadio comes back, we might lose someone else.

* Also, Montreal struggling while dealing with an injury to a star player is no different than us struggling while dealing with an injury to a star player, so I don't see how that's not the same thing. They just dealt with their injury in October while we're dealing with ours now.

 

[Byron Bitz]

Crazy that we bottomed out without a 1st pick in 2019, then wasted a top 10 pick on Boucher in 2021, traded our top 10 picks in 2022 and 2023. During 2019-2023 we were bottom 10 all 5 seasons and ended up with Stutzle and Sanderson, and one of them we completely lucked into in multiple ways.

Don’t forget about the 1st round pick in 2025 or 2026 that Bettman stole.

 

[DrEasy]

Time to pack it up and be absorbed by America guys.

They can have the Leafs, but that's about it!

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

I'm not talking about a .500 record overall though, I'm talking about a .500 record *for this trip*. We needed > .500 to make up for being worse on the road earlier this year.

If we wanna talk overall, currently our 9-11-2 record puts us below teams like the Lightning, Wings, Flyers, who are all right there with us in points (relative to us in standings: TBL +4, Wings -1, Flyers -2).

If this is a playoff team, we should be better in these games, especially road games against divisional opponents chasing us. We're playing great against the division so far, tonight was a bit of a letdown. We suck against the metro for some reason.

I don't even think we were worse than Detroit tonight, it was a very evenly matched game where special teams decided the outcome.

 

[SpezDispenser]

Point taken- and a huge point

 

[DylanSensFan]

Yeah it isn't all bad, the team looks like it belongs.

It just isn't good enough, IMO, and that is extremely annoying when we basically tanked for 7 years; even if a lot of it was unwillingly.

I feel like this team is building towards a massive breakout in the next couple of games.

 

[lang006]

I’m perfectly happy with a 4-4-1 when you look at the extended length of this trip spanning over the holidays, losing Ullmark and a few others to injuries, plus dealing with whatever flu bug is getting passed around the room. Goals have dried up and we need the big guys to get going again. We didn’t play great more often than not especially later in trip but they are learning to hang in there and battle through some stuff.

I’m pretty sure any Sens team version from about 2018 through last season go a whopping 1-8 or at absolute best 2-6-1 and lose massive ground on such a trip.

 

[SensHulk]

6 straight games scoring 2 goals or less when the goalie isn’t pulled. Unsurprisingly we are 1-4-1 in those games

 

[Alex1234]

6 straight games scoring 2 goals or less when the goalie isn’t pulled. Unsurprisingly we are 1-4-1 in those games

21st in the league in GF/GP behind MTL and Buffalo ...
The top 6 needs to be much much better
IN PTS/GP:
Stu is 30th
Brady 47th
Bath 53th
G 154th
Norris 181st
Gaudettte 272th

In particular Norris who is the 29th highest paid Centerman

 

[Micklebot]

21st in the league in GF/GP behind MTL and Buffalo ...
The top 6 needs to be much much better
IN PTS/GP:
Stu is 30th
Brady 47th
Bath 53th
G 154th
Norris 181st
Gaudettte 272th

In particular Norris who is the 29th highest paid Centerman

Top 3 seems fine, it's the second group that's below expectations, though I'd argue the bigger issue is guys like Greig, Pinto and Perron, all three of which should have been providing top 6 options well ahead of Gaudette. If Pinto was giving us 40-50 pts pace (similar to Norris) like expected, and Greig and Perron (assuming healthy) were in the 30-40 range, our scoring would be fine

The fact that our 6th leading scorer has bounced between the 4th line and top line is really problematic. It's great that Gaudette has produced more than expected, but he's getting that opportunity because others are really failing to meet expectations.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

A 4-4-1 record on this road trip is neither good nor bad. I will not consider the result as the reason the team makes or doesn't make the playoffs.

The team is seriously struggling for offense. Travis Green doesn't have much to play with and the team needs more skills and/or to Norris to get going one way or another. Does he have another gear?

I would try this line up, stack the top6 with what's available and hope for the best. We don't have consistent offense with the line up as is.

Tkachuk - Pinto - Batherson (this line has worked well in the past)
Norris - Stu - Gaudette (Gaudette is slow; but let's try two scorers with our best playmaker)
Cousins - Grieg - Giroux
Gregor - Ostapchuk - whatever

It's not just Norris. Stutzle has just 2 points in the last 6 games and just hasn’t looked sharp. The tendency to pile on & direct the blame on to one player (or two, whatever) will continue of course, but the team just hasn’t been scoring a whole lot lately.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

You need to give him extended practice and game time to see if it works. Let him build chemistry with Stutzle.

Green is playing him 19+ minutes a night at center right now, and it's hurting the team. He's not even good defensively right now, and the puck dies on his stick.

If you thought we'd need a winning record on a 9 game road trip to make the playoffs, you probably don't understand how road vs home records tend to work. A 500 road record is good for 5th in the east, only Tor, NJD, Was and Fla have a better than 500 road record.

I think a lot of people (myself) included were hoping for 10 points in the 9-game road trip. I don’t underestimate people and think they don’t understand the difference between road versus home records. But, I do think some (maybe a lot) people were hoping that we’d be a tad better than .500 because we worried that it might give other teams below us in the standings an opening to get back into the hunt for the last one or two wild card seeds.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

I was listening to TSN1200 a few times last week and it seemed like all they could talk about was "It's Jan 2nd and the Sens are in a playoff spot!".... and trotting out those stats about how rarely teams in a playoff spot at this time in the season end up not making it. They seemed to think it was a sure thing.

I was sitting there thinking "Uh, lots of things could still go wrong here guys."

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I mean good enough for what? We lost in overtime. Went .500 on a road trip we were worried about.

I agree on the last part. No offense outside of the top and literally NO HELP coming to speak of

Stutzle has 2 points in the last 6 games.