1st overalls performance vs. expectations 2004-2024

[MadLuke]

Crosby is a universally accepted top 10 player of all time. If that is not living up to the hype then nothimg can be.

Reading the message just above, what would you say Crosby hype was around 2005, after his last junior season run and scoring 6 goals in 6 games at the WJC as a pre-draft player that year while a lot of "old" junior star was there because of the lock-out ?

Would you agree that 2 Art Ross was not living up to the hype ?
Would you agree that the level of separation under a full season (not per game) with the best competition was under the level of hype ?

2 Rocket was maybe a bit over-performed, a bet that he would never score 50 was made and reasonable, the career as a whole in some way was a bit over-performing, 4 cups finals, 3 win in that salary cap era, I imagine Vegas line could have been 2.5 cup, 3.5 finals easily, it is at the minimum a mix bag in term of living up to the hype.

+200 playoff points, also, I think that matching expectation for his career nicely.

Obviously anything about Gretzky was unreasonable and maybe false expectation of people pushing copies, but Esposito-Jagr-Lemieux 5-6 Art Ross career was not, that definetly was the expectation and McDavid just did it.

One could say without injury that what Crosby would have close, winning 2013 for sure and one or 2 more in the 11-12 seasons... but he did not.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Reading the message just above, what would you say Crosby hype was around 2005, after his last junior season run and scoring 6 goals in 6 games at the WJC as a pre-draft player that year while a lot of "old" junior star was there because of the lock-out ?

Would you agree that 2 Art Ross was not living up to the hype ?
Would you agree that the level of separation under a full season (not per game) with the best competition was under the level of hype ?

2 Rocket was maybe a bit over-performed, a bet that he would never score 50 was made and reasonable, the career as a whole in some way was a bit over-performing, 4 cups finals, 3 win in that salary cap era, I imagine Vegas line could have been 2.5 cup, 3.5 finals easily, it is at the minimum a mix bag in term of living up to the hype.

+200 playoff points, also, I think that matching expectation for his career nicely.

Obviously anything about Gretzky was unreasonable and maybe false expectation of people pushing copies, but Esposito-Jagr-Lemieux 5-6 Art Ross career was not, that definetly was the expectation and McDavid just did it.

One could say without injury that what Crosby would have close, winning 2013 for sure and one or 2 more in the 11-12 seasons... but he did not.

Its called injuries. Its not hard to grasp

 

[MadLuke]

Its called injuries. Its not hard to grasp

Yes, and is it possible for them to make someone performance end up under the expected performance ?

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Yes, and is it possible for them to make someone performance end up under the expected performance ?

Not really. Not to me at least

 

[Michael Farkas]

I can't believe those Jack Hughes comments are just gonna slide by...they're so bad that it's not worth it I guess...?

 

[Ishdul]

Yes, and is it possible for them to make someone performance end up under the expected performance ?

I guess, but in that case are we going to say Lemieux underperformed expectations if you thought he was going to break Gretzky's records? Or even Orr, if you expected 20 years of dominance instead of 9?

I think Gretzky was more like a best case scenario "everything goes right" prediction, not the median expectation. I could see people thinking about that. If you're rating him as the 5th best player of all time I find it hard to buy that he's actually below your expected performance.

 

[MadLuke]

I guess, but in that case are we going to say Lemieux underperformed expectations if you thought he was going to break Gretzky's records? Or even Orr, if you expected 20 years of dominance instead of 9?

I have less grasp on Lemieux or Orr expectation as prospect, in 1983-84 the idea to break Gretzky record would have been different (for one it would have been in the high 80s scoring environment) and they were not 2857 points, 9xharts, 10xRoss, etc... yet

Lemieux underperforming would be different (a bit of a reverse Crosby), peak Lemieux matched expectation, career I can see people that had higher one at some point.

I think Gretzky was more like a best case scenario "everything goes right" prediction, not the median expectation. I could see people thinking about that.

Yes or at least or to imagine anyone thinking that it was more than that seriously, but we are talking 2 Art Ross, Hart, not Crosby winning "only" 6-7 of them and coming short of Gretzky. There is a lot of room between Crosby career and Gretzky, to be possible for the realistic expectation to never have been seriously matching Gretzky career and still for him to have felt short of them.

If they did not expect him to break the top 4 people that considering him #5, by definition do not find that he underperformed for sure.

 

[ThreeLeftSkates]

Tavares was dealt a very bad hand and made a lot out of it. Now, in the context of this thread - maybe, maybe not...but Tavares was dragging a bunch of garbage along with him.

Maybe Toronto needs to have another day for him?

 

[TheBig08]

Tavares was dealt a very bad hand and made a lot out of it. Now, in the context of this thread - maybe, maybe not...but Tavares was dragging a bunch of garbage along with him.

what about Ovi he played on trash team to and put 106 points as a rookie, so really was it really his team or just a skill level thing?

 

[MadLuke]

what about Ovi he played on trash team to and put 106 points as a rookie, so really was it really his team or just a skill level thing?

That team did not do the playoff, only 70 pts but without a doubt they were yes dragged by Ovechkin a lot, +2 on a team like that playing those minute was exceptional.

Was 2015 Tavares finishing second in points a lesser season than Ovechkin 106 pts rookie year ?

 

[TheBig08]

That team did not do the playoff, only 70 pts but without a doubt they were yes dragged by Ovechkin a lot, +2 on a team like that playing those minute was exceptional.

Was 2015 Tavares finishing second in points a lesser season than Ovechkin 106 pts rookie year ?

good point, but what about tavares when he's on a good team a 39 year old ovechkin is doing better then him right now than he has his whole time in toronto

 

[MadLuke]

good point, but what about tavares when he's on a good team a 39 year old ovechkin is doing better then him right now than he has his whole time in toronto

Well Ovechkin is an all-time great, that not normal what he is doing and not a fair reference, if the argument is that he is not Ovechkin level of player or otherwise x,y,z that true.

Tavares got really close to 50 goals (47) his first season as a Leafm scored 88 pts, +19, lead the league in even strength goals as a center. That he would have declined since would not be special for a player that was nhl ready since he was like 17 and started in the OHL at 14, still had a very long prime of long season.

 

[TheBig08]

Well Ovechkin is an all-time great, that not normal what he is doing and not a fair reference, if the argument is that he is not Ovechkin level of player or otherwise x,y,z that true.

Tavares got really close to 50 goals (47) his first season as a Leafm scored 88 pts, +19, lead the league in even strength goals as a center. That he would have declined since would not be special for a player that was nhl ready since he was like 17 and started in the OHL at 14, still had a very long prime of long season.

your right, but i do have a question tho if he did have a better team then the islanders would his number been better and if so how much?
My personal opinion Yes, but not much.

 

[seventieslord]

Hughes has 241 points in his last 204 games. Yes, he's one of the best players in the league.

 

[MadLuke]

your right, but i do have a question tho if he did have a better team then the islanders would his number been better and if so how much?
My personal opinion Yes, but not much.

I do not imagine they necessarily would much better, no you could be right, maybe a bit more assists....

But Tavares issues are not really a lack of good regular season numbers in his prime:

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

500 pts in 508 games as an islander from 2012-2018 during that time that was a lot, good for 6th in the nhl and he was third in goals scored. When we look at the name ahead of him, Crosby-Giroux (more games played similar ppg)-Kane-Malkin-Ovechkin, no shame in that at all. Just Ovechkin-Stamkos scored more goals, 2 all-time great in that regard. He peaked really close to winning an Hart&Ross.

It is more winning a single playoff round that made his career go without much noise, in what felt like an boderline irrelevant franchise during his time, add to that, the Islanders making the playoff and winning a lot of rounds the moment Tavares left (and as a FA, not in a trade with a strong package coming back), making it look even worst.

 

[TheBig08]

I do not imagine they necessarily would much better, no, maybe a bit more assists....

But Tavares issues are not really a lack of good regular season numbers in his prime:

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

500 pts in 508 games as an Islanders during his prime, during that time that was 6th in the nhl, he was third in goals scored. And look at the name ahead of him, Crosby-Giroux-Kane-Malkin-Ovechkin in points, no shame in that at all, just Ovechkin-Stamkos for goals, 2 all-time great in that regard. He peaked really close to the Hart&Ross.

It is more winning a single playoff round that made his career goes without much noise, in what felt like an boderline irrelevant franchise, add to that, the Islanders making the playoff and winning a lot of rounds the moment Tavares left (and as a FA, not in a trade with a strong package coming back), making it look even worst.

theres nothing wrong with the numbers has put up they just weren't ovechkin/crosby level numbers and he was hyped up to be generational, also i think if he were on a better team his number wouldn't be ovechkin/crosby level numbers.

 

[VanIslander]

Arbitrary cutoffs deserve mentioning.

The year before, 2003, goaltenter Marc-Anthony Fleury was drafted 1st overall and went on to win Stanley Cup championships in 2009, 2016, and 2017. He received the William M. Jennings Trophy and the Vezina Trophy in 2021. He is the third goaltender to ever reach the 500 victories mark in the NHL, after Patrick Roy and Martin Brodeur, and the fourth goaltender to reach 1,000 games played, after Roy, Brodeur, and Roberto Luongo.

Since then, there have been only two goaltenders as great.

 

[daver]

Hughes has 241 points in his last 204 games. Yes, he's one of the best players in the league.

So from his 20 year old season onwards: NHL Stats

Good for 13th in PPG. Is that "one of the best players in the league " level? Where does his 20 year season to his 23 year old season stretch rank with other #1 forward picks since 2004?

Better than Laf
Better than Hischer
Not better than Matthews
Not better than McDavid
Better than MacKinnon
Better than RNH
Better than Yakupov
Similar to Hall
Not better than Tavares
Not better than Stamkos
Not better than Kane
Not better than Crosby
Not better than Ovechkin