1995-96 Mario Lemieux vs 2022-23 Connor McDavid

[wetcoast]

You only ever use the phrase "tilt the ice" when Mario's name comes up, and when it does you use that sentence every single time lol. Still have no idea what it means.

The reason it comes up is because when one is talking about the Big 4 we are talking about the 4 greatest players of all time and one would think those players would have a total.impact on the ice not just on offense and if their impact is more on offense they would vastly outscore their opponents when on the ice and you know very well that 5 on 5 that season that Mario simply didn't do that.

I'm on my phone and at work but will give a more detailed answer later but too many people simply look at the video game totals and don't give context.

As for 5v5 vs power play - to me a point is a point and makes no difference. But if you feel different you probably picked the wrong thread to make that argument, considering how many points both players got on power play:


Lemieux 73 EVP vs 79 PPP
McDavid 75 EVP vs 71 PPP

Seems pretty close to me

Lemieux gets the edge for more points and goals in less games in a lower overall scoring environment. Seems simple

It does seem simple but when looked at more critically Mario's 95-96 season simply isn't as great as it looks on the surface.

 

[wetcoast]

I think a lot of people simply have it in their heads that the heroes of their childhood are untouchable by the modern losers of today.

I wouldn't put it exactly in those terms but I agree that many people have this built in bias and even attempts to completely overcome it has various outcomes across the spectrum.


Although I will add that the irony of context screams here eh?

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

95-96 gpg 3.14
22-23 gpg 3.18

So it is fact that 23 was a higher scoring season

Scoring leaders
Mario 161 in 70
Jagr 149 in 82
Sakic 120 in 82

Mcdavid 153 in 82
Drai 128 in 82
Panarin 120 in 82

The numbers are there. Not only did lemieux put up far better numbers. He also dominated BETTER competition to a much higher degree.

Lemieux is the only player in comparison to the other big 4 where the haters love to dissect every single thing. "Hes not titlting the ice" what 80 goal 190 point player is not tilting the ice? Hes a pp merchant. 72 ev points in 70 gp...mcdavid also had more pp points than ev n yet not a peep. Mario also led the league in sh points but hey thats not good enough. The guy was first in points, goals, assists, pp points, sh points n second in ev points. Thats tilting the friggin ice smh

 

[TheStatican]

McDavid had 134 points in his first 70 games in 2023. That year there was an average of 3.07 powerplay opportunities per game and 0.65 powerplay goals. He did this with Draisaitl and Nuge. Jaromir Jagr and Ron Francis are both significantly better than those two respectively. Do people really think it’s a stretch that Lemieux scores 20-30 less points with Drai and Nuge with 40% less PPO? Or is it not plausible that McDavid doesn’t score an extra 20-30 through his 70 game sample playing on a powerplay with Jagr, Francis and Zubov?

Yes it's very much as stretch for the reason I touch upon below.

1996 powerplay stats:
5.04 PPO, 0.90 PPG

2023 powerplay stats:
3.07 PPO, 0.65 PPG

1996 for the first half of the season was also the highest powerplay environment of all time other than 88, 89 and 93 (Lemieux’s other best seasons ironically).

McDavid’s powerplay points go up to 98 in the 1996 environment which even beats Lemieux’s all time best 82 game pace of 92. McDavid was also able to manage having the best powerplay season ever and best team conversion rate with a lesser cast.

This is an incomplete comparison that suffers from a significant flaw as it doesn't take into consideration powerplay utilization rates - Increases in powerplay ice time doesn't scale linearly with increases in powerplay opportunities.

Just because the 96 Penguins as a whole averaged 64% more PPO's per game than the 23 Oilers does not mean Lemieux was out on the ice for 64% more PPO's per game than McDavid was. This is something I covered very thoroughly in this thread;

Accuracy of using a players powerplay goal on ice totals to determine powerplay ice time

This thread extends the concepts previously explored here but with a specific and more in-depth focus on powerplay time exclusively. It is reasonable to assume that a player's powerplay goals on ice closely correlates with their actual powerplay Time On Ice (TOI). However the crucial question...

forums.hfboards.com

 

[WalterLundy]

Yes it's very much as stretch for the reason I touch upon below.



This is an incomplete comparison that suffers from a significant flaw as it doesn't take into consideration powerplay utilization rates - Increases in powerplay ice time doesn't scale linearly with increases in powerplay opportunities.

Just because the 96 Penguins as a whole averaged 64% more PPO's per game than the 23 Oilers does not mean Lemieux was out on the ice for 64% more PPO's per game than McDavid was. This is something I covered very thoroughly in this thread;

Accuracy of using a players powerplay goal on ice totals to determine powerplay ice time

This thread extends the concepts previously explored here but with a specific and more in-depth focus on powerplay time exclusively. It is reasonable to assume that a player's powerplay goals on ice closely correlates with their actual powerplay Time On Ice (TOI). However the crucial question...

forums.hfboards.com

Would you be able to break down 2023 McDavid and 1996 Lemieux’s powerplay numbers? Like is there a way to find out which powerplay season was better given how much there is to consider? If you could that would be much appreciated.

 

[WalterLundy]

95-96 gpg 3.14
22-23 gpg 3.18

So it is fact that 23 was a higher scoring season

Scoring leaders
Mario 161 in 70
Jagr 149 in 82
Sakic 120 in 82

Mcdavid 153 in 82
Drai 128 in 82
Panarin 120 in 82

The numbers are there. Not only did lemieux put up far better numbers. He also dominated BETTER competition to a much higher degree.

Lemieux is the only player in comparison to the other big 4 where the haters love to dissect every single thing. "Hes not titlting the ice" what 80 goal 190 point player is not tilting the ice? Hes a pp merchant. 72 ev points in 70 gp...mcdavid also had more pp points than ev n yet not a peep. Mario also led the league in sh points but hey thats not good enough. The guy was first in points, goals, assists, pp points, sh points n second in ev points. Thats tilting the friggin ice smh

Levels:
96: 2.10, 0.90, 0.14
24: 2.36, 0.63, 0.09

Underneath each total are the new even strength/powerplay/shorthanded numbers individually

1996 Penguins adjusted to 2024

ML: 143 in 70
(82, 55, 6)

JJ: 145 in 82
(107, 36, 2)

RF: 110 in 77
(71, 38, 1)

PN: 101 in 80
(85, 14, 2)

TS: 65 in 58
(41, 21, 3)

SZ: 59 in 64
(34, 22, 3)

Nobody is hating in here. That cast in 2024 levels far exceeds anything we saw in 2024. Jagr wins the ross. That version of Lemieux is pacing 160s in todays game. Scoring was higher in 1996. Top players scored clearly more than the last 7 seasons and in line with the 80s-early 90s. Special teams scoring was also top 5 that it has ever been. Lemieux didn’t score 190 or 80 goals. With no sitting games he is in the mid-upper 170s in 82 games which is what McDavid would have been in 1996 when adjusted.

 

[Midnight Judges]

95-96 gpg 3.14
22-23 gpg 3.18

So it is fact that 23 was a higher scoring season

Scoring leaders
Mario 161 in 70
Jagr 149 in 82
Sakic 120 in 82

Mcdavid 153 in 82
Drai 128 in 82
Panarin 120 in 82

The numbers are there. Not only did lemieux put up far better numbers. He also dominated BETTER competition to a much higher degree.

Lemieux is the only player in comparison to the other big 4 where the haters love to dissect every single thing. "Hes not titlting the ice" what 80 goal 190 point player is not tilting the ice? Hes a pp merchant. 72 ev points in 70 gp...mcdavid also had more pp points than ev n yet not a peep. Mario also led the league in sh points but hey thats not good enough. The guy was first in points, goals, assists, pp points, sh points n second in ev points. Thats tilting the friggin ice smh

The primary knock on Lemieux is that he lacked durability.

 

[GrumpyKoala]

Lemieux ainec

like super mario vs mckoopa

View attachment 889493

From all the archetype of all mario Characters chucky chuck is probably the worst one to pick for McDavid.

But what fitting in the image is mario, being once more carried around

 

[BraveCanadian]

You have to keep in mind too that on hfboards, players from the past are all trash and they were facing pylons on defense and laughable goaltenders.. therefore new players are always better.. EXCEPT Lemieux, Forsberg, Fedorov and Hasek.

 

[Regal]

You have to keep in mind too that on hfboards, players from the past are all trash and they were facing pylons on defense and laughable goaltenders.. therefore new players are always better.. EXCEPT Lemieux, Forsberg, Fedorov and Hasek.

Don’t forget Bure

 

[TheStatican]

Would you be able to break down 2023 McDavid and 1996 Lemieux’s powerplay numbers? Like is there a way to find out which powerplay season was better given how much there is to consider? If you could that would be much appreciated.

Sure, here's all that we need to consider;
-Team Powerplay opportunities per game
-The League-wide Powerplay efficiency
-Games played
-Powerplay utilization

The '96 Penguins did indeed have significantly more powerplay opportunities than the '23 Oilers (5.04 vs 3.07). However, it was also easier to score on the powerplay in '23 compared to '96, which tempers the increase in opportunities (17.93% vs 21.31%). With less powerplay time per game, Lemieux would have been able to be on the ice for a greater percentage of that time. Unfortunately, his actual '96 TOI (time on ice) numbers are unknown, but I would estimate his increased PP (powerplay) utilization time would be around 15%. Lastly, he also played in 12 fewer games (70 vs 82)

Plugging in all those numbers together gives us;
79/5.04*3.07/17.93*21.31/*1.15/70*82 = 77 PP points

Plus when you adjust 1996 Lemieux to 2021 levels by G/GP (even strength, powerplay and shorthanded separately) Lemieux’s 2.30 goes down to 1.90. McDavid’s by comparison is virtually identical at 1.88 and he did so with a significantly lesser supporting cast.

This is great for comparisons between seasons from the early 90's and virtually every year before then but incomplete when comparing more recent seasons as it doesn't factor in the surge in higher scoring game time situations; playing with and against the empty net and 3 on 3 overtime, the former which is much higher now and later which didn't exist before. My thread about this here;

Empty Net & Overtime Scoring: Their Effects on Scoring Distribution and the Resulting Inflation of Point Totals for the League's Top Players

Empty net scoring has seen a huge uptick in recent seasons, largely thanks to analytics revealing that playing with an empty net is actually of a net benefit for a team aiming to make a comeback. Goals conceded during these situations are now considered to be largely inconsequential; after all...

forums.hfboards.com

For this comparison Lemieux had 3 empty net points and 2(5on5) OT points in 70. McDavid had 7 empty net points and 3(3on3) OT points in 56.
Here are the respective numbers for each season('96 vs '21);
EN per game 0.077 vs 0.154
OT per game 0.030 vs 0.075

At '21 rates Lemieux would have had 6 & 5 for a total of 11 instead of just the combined 5 he had, that's 6 more of those easier to get points for Lemieux which = a ppg of 2.39 in '96 and 1.96ppg adjusted to '21 ES/PP/SH levels.

And there's still the elevated scoring level situation of playing with an empty net where McDavid had an additional 5 points. Those rates aren't insanely high as when playing against an empty net, but still about as high as being on a powerplay. Unfortunately Lemieux's 6v5 totals are not known so no adjustments for that can be made but whatever they were(likely just a couple) you'd have to adjust them higher as well, every little bit counts.

 

[Regal]

Sure, here's all that we need to consider;
-Team Powerplay opportunities per game
-The League-wide Powerplay efficiency
-Games played
-Powerplay utilization

The '96 Penguins did indeed have way more than the '23 Oilers(5.04 vs 3.07). But it was also easier to score on the powerplay in '23 vs 96 which tampers the increase in opportunities somewhat(17.93% vs 21.31%). With less powerplay time per game Lemieux would have been able to be on the ice for a greater % of that ice time, unfortunately his actual '96 TOI numbers are unknown but I'd estimate his increased PP utilization time would be around 15% higher. And lastly he also played in 12 less games(70 vs 82).

Plugging in all those numbers together gives us;
79/5.04*3.07/17.93*21.31/*1.15/70*82 = 77 PP points


This is great for comparisons between seasons from the early 90's and virtually every year before then but incomplete when comparing more recent seasons as it doesn't factor in the surge in higher scoring game time situations; playing with and against the empty net and 3 on 3 overtime, the former which is much higher now and later which didn't exist before. My thread about this here;

Empty Net & Overtime Scoring: Their Effects on Scoring Distribution and the Resulting Inflation of Point Totals for the League's Top Players

Empty net scoring has seen a huge uptick in recent seasons, largely thanks to analytics revealing that playing with an empty net is actually of a net benefit for a team aiming to make a comeback. Goals conceded during these situations are now considered to be largely inconsequential; after all...

forums.hfboards.com

For this comparison Lemieux had 3 empty net points and 2(5on5) OT points in 70. McDavid had 7 empty net points and 3(3on3) OT points in 56.
Here are the respective numbers for each season('96 vs '21);
EN per game 0.077 vs 0.154
OT per game 0.030 vs 0.075

At '21 rates Lemieux would have had 6 & 5 for a total of 11 instead of just the combined 5 he had, that's 6 more of those easier to get points for Lemieux which = a ppg of 2.39 in '96 and 1.96ppg adjusted to '21 ES/PP/SH levels.

And there's still the elevated scoring level situation of playing with and empty net where McDavid had an additional 5 points. Those rates aren't insanely high as when playing against an empty net, but still about as high as being on a powerplay. Unfortunately Lemieux's 6v5 totals are not known so no adjustments for that can be made but whatever they were(likely just a couple) you'd have to adjust them higher as well, every little bit counts.

I had the full end of year newspaper stats at one point that included EN goals and points but I’m not sure if I still do. I’ll try to find it

 

[RSPens]

Lemieux came back after whining to the league and being guaranteed that they wouldn't be allowing physical play against him. Zero respect for him despite how many points he floated to.

Oh yeah, because hockey was so much better when Lemieux had to contend with 3 guys draped all over him.

 

[TheStatican]

That’s a fair criticism. The full 82 against all the teams is big. The reason he and I are both really high on 2021 McDavid is the peer dominance. Other than 1982-87 Gretzky, 89 and 93 Lemieux you just aren’t going to find better for forwards. The North division was a league to itself in 2021 but the average for the North is virtually the same when compared to the NHL average for 2021.

For raw totals yes, but 96 Lemieux is actually a better on a per-game basis;

​	​	PPG​	​	​ McDavid '21​		​ Lemieux '96​	​	PPG​	​
1​	McDavid​	1.875​	100.0%​	100%​	na​	100%​	100.0%​	2.30​	Lemieux​
2​	Draisaitl​	1.50​	125.0%​	225%​	0.6%	226%​	126.4%​	1.82​	Jágr​
3​	Panarin​	1.38​	135.9%​	361%​	3.1%	372%​	145.6%​	1.58​	Lindros​
4​	MacKinnon​	1.35​	138.9%​	500%​	4.1%	520%​	148.4%​	1.55​	Francis​
5​	Marchand​	1.30​	144.2%​	644%​	5.3%	678%​	157.5%​	1.46​	Sakic​
6​	Matthews​	1.27​	147.6%​	792%​	6.2%	841%​	163.1%​	1.41​	Forsberg​
7​	Rantanen​	1.27​	147.6%​	939%​	7.4%	1009%​	167.9%​	1.37​	Fedorov​
8​	Marner​	1.22​	153.7%​	1093%​	7.7%	1177%​	167.9%​	1.37​	Selänne​
9​	Kane​	1.18​	158.9%​	1252%​	7.6%	1347%​	170.4%​	1.35​	Mogilny​
10​	Barkov​	1.16​	161.6%​	1413%​	7.4%	1519%​	171.6%​	1.34​	Messier​
11​	Scheifele​	1.13​	165.9%​	1579%​	7.2%	1693%​	174.2%​	1.32​	Kariya​
12​	Crosby​	1.13​	165.9%​	1745%​	7.1%	1869%​	175.6%​	1.31​	Oates​
13​	Huberdeau​	1.11​	168.9%​	1914%​	6.9%	2047%​	178.3%​	1.29​	Tkachuk​
14​	Stone​	1.11​	168.9%​	2083%​	6.9%	2227%​	179.7%​	1.28​	Gretzky​
15​	Radulov​	1.09​	172.0%​	2255%​	6.8%	2408%​	181.1%​	1.27​	Weight​
16​	DeBrincat​	1.08​	173.6%​	2429%​	6.8%	2593%​	185.5%​	1.24​	Nedvěd​
17​	Pacioretty​	1.06​	176.9%​	2606%​	6.8%	2783%​	190.1%​	1.21​	Sandström​
18​	Hintz​	1.05​	178.6%​	2784%​	6.8%	2975%​	191.7%​	1.20​	Roberts​
19​	Perron​	1.04​	180.3%​	2965%​	6.8%	3167%​	191.7%​	1.20​	LaFontaine​
20​	Guentzel​	1.02​	183.8%​	3148%​	6.7%	3358%​	191.7%​	1.20​	Turgeon​
21​	Aho​	1.02​	183.8%​	3332%​	6.5%	3550%​	191.7%​	1.20​	Fleury​
22​	Makar​	1.00​	187.5%​	3520%​	6.3%	3743%​	193.3%​	1.19​	Hull​
23​	Pastrňák​	1.00​	187.5%​	3707%​	6.2%	3936%​	193.3%​	1.19​	Verbeek​
24​	Ehlers​	0.98​	191.3%​	3899%​	5.9%	4130%​	193.3%​	1.19​	Bondra​
25​	Landeskog​	0.96​	195.3%​	4094%​	5.6%	4323%​	193.3%​	1.19​	Yzerman​

I prefer to use the cumulative VsX totals as it smooths out the inconsistences you see in say a VsX5 or VsX10. To be sure there's definitely an argument to be made that Lemieux per game rates would be a little lower if he played in all 82 games games due to fatigue factors. But how much lower? 3% 5% 10%? I would agree he almost certainly doesn't get exactly 189 in 82(2.30ppg), but he could go down as low as 177 in 82(2.16ppg 6.8% reduction) and still more or less match McDavid across the board there.

But that also doesn't consider that while it's true the North division scoring was not hugely divergent from the rest of the league in '21, it was still 2% higher, plus arguably Mcdavid's strongest competitor Kucherov didn't play at all(during the regular season) which would have increased the gap between the two towards the top of the chart.

It's certainly quite close between but all the above is my case for a slight edge to Lemieux, at least offensively.

I had the full end of year newspaper stats at one point that included EN goals and points but I’m not sure if I still do. I’ll try to find it

Do you mean scoring for the team playing with the empty net? That'd would be good to know. The NHL has keep track of empty net scoring for a long time but not the other way around until recently.