Post-Game Talk: #17 - 11/10/18 | RANGERS @ blue jackets | 7:00 - MSG

[will1066]

Honestly, I thought about it, and I’m changing. I was as pro-tank as they come, but now I want the team to win for one reason: player happiness. It’s great seeing our players feel good and gain confidence after a win. If they were to lose nearly every game, that confidence and happiness is gone, players begin to question their abilities, the team plays poorly, and ultimately, players don’t develop/improve their game.

*Inb4 it’s June and I’m looking at what position we’re drafting with tears running down my face*

Exactly this.

 

[will1066]

He has, but he was insane for 2 months in 15-16.

His sv pct is back above .920 so far with a 2.65 GAA, which isn't terrible. There's no reason why he couldn't go on like this if the players in front of him keep gelling and improving. He's facing fewer ridiculous HDSCs.

You've been saying that they've had luck and not been playing well and they cannot continue this pace. That's what they said about VGK last year, that they'll bottom out at some point. Not saying we're gonna be this year's VGK but I've always felt like Quinn can get them to be more than their sum of parts and overachieve with a system that provides some protection against individual flaws and on ice mistakes.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

His sv pct is back above .920 so far with a 2.65 GAA, which isn't terrible. There's no reason why he couldn't go on like this if the players in front of him keep gelling and improving. He's facing fewer ridiculous HDSCs.

You've been saying that they've had luck and not been playing well and they cannot continue this pace. That's what they said about VGK last year, that they'll bottom out at some point. Not saying we're gonna be this year's VGK but I've always felt like Quinn can get them to be more than their sum of parts and overachieve with a system that provides some protection against individual flaws and on ice mistakes.

Vegas had a legitimate top line, top 4 defense and their metrics were pretty good.

We're not doing that here. We're the 4th worst team at driving possession in close games (Ahead of Ottawa, Anaheim and the Isles) and are getting by on shootout wins and loser points (those account for 10 of our 17.) We're not bottom of the barrel in this aspect like we were last year, but its not too far off.

Vegas also won their division. I know that they came out of no where and surprised everyone, but they were able to do so over the course of a full season actually winning games because they were good rather than winning games because their goalie stole it or they were better at a skills competition.

We aren't winning our division. We have 3 regulation wins in our first 17 games (one of them against a 3rd string goalie.) I mean there are smoke and mirrors, and then there is what ever the f*** we're doing right now.

 

[will1066]

Vegas had a legitimate top line, top 4 defense and their metrics were pretty good.

We're not doing that here. We're the 4th worst team at driving possession in close games (Ahead of Ottawa, Anaheim and the Isles) and are getting by on shootout wins and loser points (those account for 10 of our 17.) We're not bottom of the barrel in this aspect like we were last year, but its not too far off.

Vegas also won their division. I know that they came out of no where and surprised everyone, but they were able to do so over the course of a full season actually winning games because they were good rather than winning games because their goalie stole it or they were better at a skills competition.

We aren't winning our division. We have 3 regulation wins in our first 17 games (one of them against a 3rd string goalie.) I mean there are smoke and mirrors, and then there is what ever the **** we're doing right now.

Trust me, I see your points. They have blown leads or else those 3 ROWs could be 6. We've also beaten goalies who have been our nemeses in the past. Overall their corsi still sucks yet they've had a few incredible cycle shifts. You know what? That's indicative of a young team that is going to steadily improve as long as they keep learning and growing from mistakes. This is not an AV team where the bad habits became so ingrained into the player fabric you couldn't Clorox it out if you tried. This squad is ahead of the bad habits curve and if Quinn does his job, those bad stretches of hockey will continue to diminish.

 

[will1066]

Make no mistake. I am not anti-tank and if in PO position encouraging them to buy at the deadline. I would stay pat and take my chances. If that's what it comes to. Buying to go for it would be a mistake. I'm just saying that if they wanted to tank and guarantee themselves of not being anywhere near PO position in March, they should've went all in, not end up in this current somewhat competitive and overachieving situation.

 

[Kovalev27]

Last in Regulation or Overtime wins in the whole league and we’ve played more games than most. That’s going to catch up here and soon.

That’s a bad team. And we’re healthy. Really healthy. I think Hayes is going soon too.

 

[Good Intentions]

Bingo.

I truly have a disdain for the attempt to devalue these victories (i.e. it's a shootout win, the wrong players are on the ice). You want the franchise to lose in order to receive a moderate % chance for a handful of draft eligible players? Be my guest - there's a laundry list of franchises that never get off the mat from that type of losing.

The "I know better" *****ery of fist pumping for the 'tank' is chicken ****.

20-year-old Brett Howden is a future A (maybe C). Zibanejad may have an All-Star gear. Kreider. Chytil. Lias. Skjei. etc etc. Do you think being around a semi-successful culture with a heroic Lundqvist impacts the franchise - and every single of these players? Nah, get your 69 point season so that you can draft a kid 4th overall.

Just win.

Following up on this venting session I had last night...
It just occurred to me that I know the 'Tankers' quite well...

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Last in Regulation or Overtime wins in the whole league and we’ve played more games than most. That’s going to catch up here and soon.

That’s a bad team. And we’re healthy. Really healthy. I think Hayes is going soon too.

I remember in 2012 when I thought the Devils sucked because a dozen of their wins came in a shootout. Then they beat the Rangers and went on to the SC Final.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I remember in 2012 when I thought the Devils sucked because a dozen of their wins came in a shootout. Then they beat the Rangers and went on to the SC Final.

They had 2 legitimate star players in Kovalchuk and Parise along with very good metrics.

This years Rangers have been shoot out kings with horrendous metrics. That other shoe is going to drop and drop hard unless they get much better.

 

[ThirdEye]

I think the mindset heading into this season is rebuild and it's not going to change at the deadline. It's clear the staff is trying to ingrain a specific system and work ethic and so far it's been successful, but a good stretch super early in the season is not going to change their long term strategy. For sure Zucc is a goner and Hayes is probable if a desperate team offers a first for him

If we somehow manage to make the playoffs it's going to be due to the futility of the teams around us moreso than us being deserving

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

I remember in 2012 when I thought the Devils sucked because a dozen of their wins came in a shootout. Then they beat the Rangers and went on to the SC Final.

And that's even when we were Tort's Kinda Guys, so we can't even put the blame on "Coach" AV.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

I think the mindset heading into this season is rebuild and it's not going to change at the deadline. It's clear the staff is trying to ingrain a specific system and work ethic and so far it's been successful, but a good stretch super early in the season is not going to change their long term strategy. For sure Zucc is a goner and Hayes is probable if a desperate team offers a first for him

If we somehow manage to make the playoffs it's going to be due to the futility of the teams around us moreso than us being deserving

Build a system + Homegrown + Prospects Work Out = Serious Profit.

Stay the course.

 

[Ori]

We’re making the playoffs

CBJ was unfortunate to not win this game. I admit it`s a strange season, because all teams are losing games, except Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Nashville recently.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

I remember in 2012 when I thought the Devils sucked because a dozen of their wins came in a shootout. Then they beat the Rangers and went on to the SC Final.

It's always good course to focus on the outliers when projecting future successes.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Buchnevich out 4-6 weeks with a broken thumb

 

[Kovalev27]

Last in Regulation or Overtime wins in the whole league and we’ve played more games than most. That’s going to catch up here and soon.

That’s a bad team. And we’re healthy. Really healthy. I think Hayes is going soon too.

And the first significant injury hits. buchy out. Right when he was playing well

 

[Synergy27]

Anti-tankers will constantly point to the Oilers in defense of their desired strategy, but I'm still waiting to see one of them reverse course and concede that the Rangers situation will never be similar, if for no other reason than location.

This team is performing a bit better than everyone projected. Imagine how good they can be with a Crosby/McDavid level talent at the top? How can you possibly not root for that? I just don't get it.

 

[kovazub94]

....
This team is performing a bit better than everyone projected. Imagine how good they can be with a Crosby/McDavid level talent at the top? How can you possibly not root for that? I just don't get it.

Literally noone would deny that adding Crosby / McDavid level talent would be great.

The problem is if the way to get it via a high(est) draft picks then it's virtually impossible to obtain if combined with desire and expectations for the team and the prospects to continue to do well. Essentially in order to obtain these highest draft picks the team and prospects have to be exposed and put in positions where they likely will not be "performing better than projected". The only "natural" way the team to be exposed is if the team WHOLE top-6 (Zibanejad, Kreider, Buch, Hayes, Zuke, Names) are moved or injured.

 

[Edge]

I remain one of those people who is perfectly fine taking one or two steps back to take 5 or 6 forward.

I'm not nearly as interested forcing the issue to take one step forward and then stand in place afterwards. That just screams of instant gratification for me.

In a world where nothing is guaranteed, you go for the approach that gives you the best odds.

The best long-term odds for this team include additional draft picks, additional young talent, and as good of a draft position as possible.

I don't think it requires having the first pick or two in a draft, but I definitely think it typically requires picking higher than 15th.

That is why I am still in favor of moving Hayes, Zucc and others as we move forward this season.

 

[nyr__1994]

Anti-tankers will constantly point to the Oilers in defense of their desired strategy, but I'm still waiting to see one of them reverse course and concede that the Rangers situation will never be similar, if for no other reason than location.

This team is performing a bit better than everyone projected. Imagine how good they can be with a Crosby/McDavid level talent at the top? How can you possibly not root for that? I just don't get it.

Edmonton is the poster child for a failed rebuild with top picks, but for every Pittsburgh, Chicago, LA there are the following:

Florida - Warm, no state income tax, how many top picks and they are still bad
Buffalo - Hockey town, hockey market, has been rebuilding for over a decade
Carolina - Hasn't made the playoffs in 10 years with numerous top 5 and top 10 picks
Islanders - Tavares was a generational player and he couldn't consistently get them to the playoffs
Coyotes - Have been Cellar Dwellars for years

Now I know you can point to this reason or that reason as to why each team has not gotten better, but there are six examples where getting top picks year after year has not produced even playoff caliber teams, let alone one that can go on a run in said playoffs...

You could probably throw Colorado on that list too....

 

[Edge]

Edmonton is the poster child for a failed rebuild with top picks, but for every Pittsburgh, Chicago, LA there are the following:

Florida - Warm, no state income tax, how many top picks and they are still bad
Buffalo - Hockey town, hockey market, has been rebuilding for over a decade
Carolina - Hasn't made the playoffs in 10 years with numerous top 5 and top 10 picks
Islanders - Tavares was a generational player and he couldn't consistently get them to the playoffs
Coyotes - Have been Cellar Dwellars for years

Now I know you can point to this reason or that reason as to why each team has not gotten better, but there are six examples where getting top picks year after year has not produced even playoff caliber teams, let alone one that can go on a run in said playoffs...

You could probably throw Colorado on that list too....

You could also point to many of those teams as not being able to identify talent outside of very high picks, and/or fill holes via free agency.

I think there's a misconception that people who want the high picks view it as beginning and ending there.

It doesn't.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Edmonton is the poster child for a failed rebuild with top picks, but for every Pittsburgh, Chicago, LA there are the following:

Florida - Warm, no state income tax, how many top picks and they are still bad
Buffalo - Hockey town, hockey market, has been rebuilding for over a decade
Carolina - Hasn't made the playoffs in 10 years with numerous top 5 and top 10 picks
Islanders - Tavares was a generational player and he couldn't consistently get them to the playoffs
Coyotes - Have been Cellar Dwellars for years

Now I know you can point to this reason or that reason as to why each team has not gotten better, but there are six examples where getting top picks year after year has not produced even playoff caliber teams, let alone one that can go on a run in said playoffs...

You could probably throw Colorado on that list too....

In the last 10 years there has been one team to win the Stanley Cup without a prominent player who was drafted in the top 2.

When people say it's possible to win without high draft picks, technically they're right. But this is the much harder route to take and requires extreme luck and skill in drafts, FA and trades. Acting as if a rebuild/tank is a terrible idea because other teams have had failures does not negate the clear trend that picking in the top 2 gives you a chance to land a generational player that is nearly impossible through any other aspects.

This isn't the 1980's when star players get traded or hit FA in their primes. The Tavares situation was insane and a rarity, which seemed to happen under really specific circumstances. Players of his caliber just don't become available any other way but through drafts.

 

[will1066]

We're also in 2018, when technology is just bonkers and still accelerating. Youth and junior hockey systems in North America and around the world will produce increasingly better players most often. Generational talents will still be those pearls among oysters, but high-quality to elite oysters will be more plentiful, giving clubs a viable pathway to develop multiple elite players within a competitive window instead of just praying for the less than 20% odds of landing a generational talent to build around.

Once again, I'm not anti-tank. If you want to tank, tank correctly. The current situation is not a tank situation. They should've just bided their time, hire any schmo off the street to coach, and kept any and all promising young players away from this club for 2018.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

We're also in 2018, when technology is just bonkers and still accelerating. Youth and junior hockey systems in North America and around the world will produce increasingly better players most often. Generational talents will still be those pearls among oysters, but high-quality to elite oysters will be more plentiful, giving clubs a viable pathway to develop multiple elite players within a competitive window instead of just praying for the less than 20% odds of landing a generational talent to build around.

Once again, I'm not anti-tank. If you want to tank, tank correctly. The current situation is not a tank situation. They should've just bided their time, hire any schmo off the street to coach, and kept any and all promising young players away from this club for 2018.

I would argue that due to the increased technology and attention being paid, we are actually in an era when it will be far more difficult to acquire generational talents outside of the draft.

We won't ever witness another Red Wings situation again, IMO.

 

[Edge]

Personally, I'm not as focused on picking 1-2, so much as I want to be in a position to actually get the Kellers and Petterssons and not talking about almost getting them.