Prospect Info: #166 Overall, LW Josh Filmon, Swift Current WHL

[Nubmer6]

Ive never seen peanut butter on a restaurant menu aside from the children's menu. It's more of an ingredient. People eat a lot of peanut butter here in the States, just not when theyre dining out.

I think there's actually a place in NYC that specializes in peanut butter. At least there used to be. May be gone now.

 

[RyGuy]

I think there's actually a place in NYC that specializes in peanut butter. At least there used to be. May be gone now.

Must be that swanky high-end Bistro in Manhattan, Jif.

 

[Andre Palot]

I think there's actually a place in NYC that specializes in peanut butter. At least there used to be. May be gone now.

Are you talking about Peanut Butter & Company? They closed shop in 2016 and their restaurant was located in Greenwich Village. However, most if not all of their products are sold in various supermarkets. At least in the North East.

 

[Devs3cups]

Need to know this with the food talk... what's you guys' opinion on the best pizza place in NY/NJ?

 

[Nubmer6]

Need to know this with the food talk... what's you guys' opinion on the best pizza place in NY/NJ?

I'd answer, but I think we've pushed WAY into an OT thread and out of Filmon territory.

 

[Devs3cups]

I'd answer, but I think we've pushed WAY into an OT thread and out of Filmon territory.

Quote me in the OT thread

 

[Xirik]

Wonder what Filmon's reaction to this thread would be if he found it.

 

[Darkauron]

Yeah Id like less food talk and more Filmon talk too.

 

[RyGuy]

Yeah Id like less food talk and more Filmon talk too.

Filmon is short for Filet Mignon.

 

[Devils731]

Filmon is short for Filet Mignon.

So he’s overrated and a bad value?

 

[Nubmer6]

So he’s overrated and a bad value?

And soft.

 

[forceten]

And soft.

Definitely low fat though!

 

[Rhodes 81]

I also think there is such worry over peanut allergies that sone places choose to have nothing peanut related rather than deal with cross contamination concerns.

I didn't appreciate this until I had a son with peanut and egg allergies. It's hard enough to find anything a toddler will eat on a menu, then add in those allergies. Egg is in so many things just as a binder or in sauces, so I'm grateful that many places don't go throwing peanuts around as well.

 

[Guttersniped]

Prospects are not final products. Along their journey to the NHL, their games undergo transformations. They adjust various aspects of their play, acquire new skills, and enhance their technical abilities.

At times, these enhancements are foreseeable; at others, they are not. And it is the latter that adds intrigue to the process of monitoring prospects.

Furthermore, it's this aspect that has continually captivated my interest in meticulously following over 600 CHL games each season.

Utilizing the data gathered from this comprehensive tracking, I have compiled a list of the CHL's most improved players from the previous season. This roster encompasses individuals from both the first-round selections and the late-round talents that you should be aware of.

Here are the biggest improvers and most interesting case studies, minus Connor Bedard and Olen Zellweger, whom we covered earlier.

Devils fans:

If the CHL were to host a Most Improved Player award, my vote would unequivocally go to Josh Filmon. He experienced a remarkable transition, elevating his performance from 0.67 points per game to an impressive 1.17, and his goal tally surged from 23 to an astonishing 47. In terms of tracking data, his ranking soared from the 34th percentile to the 89th, primarily driven by a significant surge in generating scoring chances, amplifying his shooting frequency, and heightening his defensive influence.

What sets apart Filmon's development as particularly intriguing is that he has retained his stylistic identity: a shooter who capitalizes primarily on scoring chances, complemented by a tactically astute off-puck game. However, as he continues to develop physically, he exhibits swifter reactions to loose pucks, greater composure when handling the puck amidst pressure, and a more adventurous inclination towards playmaking. His exceptional hand-eye coordination empowers him to reach across defenders for deflections, corral rebounds deftly, and dispossess adversaries effectively.

Spoiler: That (longish) card explainer here

I chose percentiles for the new stats – it’s easier to understand. If a player ranked in the 99th percentile, they rank higher than 99 percent of their peers in that metric.

The stats shown in the bottom half of the card are in z-score. Z-score shows how many standard deviations a value is from the mean. Positive Z-score indicates a value above the mean, negative Z-score indicates a value below the mean. The further a player’s result is from the mean, the more extreme the result.

With z-scores, the elite/top players look even better. Percentiles remove the distances between stats. For example, the distance between the 50thpercentile xG/60 result at the 90ths is smaller than the difference between the 95th and 100th percentile. The benefit of z-scores for these stats is that they better show the extremes.

However, different metrics have different ranges. For example, a Z-score of 1.5 might be among the top-20 players in the dataset in one stat, but only top-100 in another.

What It Says

The Overall grade is a measure of roundedness and performance within the sample, not a measure of overall ability. Players with high offence but low defence will have their overall take a hit – that doesn’t mean they’re worse prospects than those with higher overall grades.

None of the stats, whether that’s the Overall grade of Expected Goals per 60, suggest Player X is better than Player Y. It’s fair to say that Player X was better at generating scoring chances because of a superior xG/60 in the sample. It provides insight into a player’s style of play and impact in the sample. I find it useful for understanding how a player impacts the game and their ability to do so going forward.

How It Works

Forwards and defencemen are on separate scales.

The Offence grade reflects a player’s scoring chance generation in the sample. Nine different metrics are weighted (see below for a full list), including volume (i.e., how many scoring chances they get), efficiency (i.e., how many passes into the slot they complete), and adjusting for the quality of their team.

The Transition grade includes 11 metrics, that also accounts for volume, efficiency, and their impact relative to their teammates. Exits are weighted heavier for defenceman, entries heavier for forwards. That’s not just the result of (arguably) an exit being more valuable for a defenceman, but also sample size. Defencemen are usually more involved in breakouts to forwards having more entry attempts.

The Defence grade is comprised of different components for forwards and defencemen. For forwards, it’s just break ups (which includes NZ break ups, NZ forced dump ins, DZ break ups, DZ slot pass interceptions, DZ shots against that the player contests) and OZ retrievals. For defencemen, it includes break ups, two rush defence metrics, and DZ retrievals.

The Overall grade is comprised differently for forwards versus defencemen. For forwards, the weighting is offence the highest, followed by transition, defence, and boards-to-middle plays (in that order). Is defence more valuable than transition? Arguably, but defence is weighted less because of the comparatively smaller number of stats that fall into the defence category, and their increased variance.

For defenders, offence, defence, and transition are weighted equally, with boards-to-middle plays filling out the remainder.

Here’s a sheet with the exact weighting. From here on out, all the changes are likely to be minor as I gather more information.

This is, and I cannot stress this enough, manually tracked data. Each game takes anywhere from two to four hours, dependent on the camera angle, video quality, and more. Sample sizes around eight games up and generally the most stable, and thus, the more usable.

Definitions
xG/60: Expected goals per 60; the weighted likelihood of a player's shots resulting a goal, based on shot location, shot type, preceding passes, situation, and rebounds
Shots/60: The player's shots, rated per 60 minutes
xA1/60: Expected primary assists per 60; the weighted likelihood of a player's passes that resulted in a shot becoming a goal, based on shot location, shot type, preceding passes, and situation
Slot Passes/60: The number of times a player passes into or across the slot, regardless of outcome, rated per 60 minutes
Slot Pass Success %: The success rate (i.e., puck lands on a teammate's stick) of a player's passes into or across the slot
Ctrl Entry Rel%: The sum of a player's total controlled (carry or pass) entry attempts, divided by their total attempts, rated relative to team
Ctrl Entries/60: The player's number of carries or passes over the offensive blue line to establish the offensive zone, rated per 60 minutes
Ctrl Exit Rel%: The sum of a player's total controlled (carry or pass) exit attempts, divided by their total attempts while pressured by the opposition, rated relative to team
Ctrl Exits/60: The player's number of carries or passes over the defensive blue line, rated per 60 minutes
Transition Success %: The sum of a player's total successful transition attempts, divided by their total attempts, rated relative to team
Cross Lane Plays/60: Passes or carries that cross the dot lanes, either going outside-to-in, in-to-out, or cross-ice (outside-to-outside), rated per 60.
Entry Prevention %: The number of entry attempts that target the player that failed, rated relative to team
Defensive Plays/CA: The sum of a player's DZ break ups, slot pass interceptions, opposition shots that they pressured, neutral zone break ups, and recovered dump-ins in the defensive zone, rated per corsi against
Retrieval Success %: The percentage of a player’s DZ retrievals that resulted in his team’s possession divided their total number of retrieval.
OZ Retrievals/60: The player's number of puck retrievals (off dump ins) plus the number of steals and interceptions in the offensive zone, rated per 60 minutes.
Advantages Created/60: The number of times a player beats an opponent to successfully create space for themselves or a teammate, rated per 60 minutes.
Boards to Middle Plays/60: The number of times a player successfully takes the puck from the boards to the inside lane under pressure, rated per 60 minutes.
Off-Puck Assists/60: The number of times a player successfully sets a pick, lifts a stick, or drives the net to draw defenders and create shooting lanes for teammates, rated per 60 minutes.
xP1 Involvement %: The player's percentage of the team's total xG that the player either shot or set-up.
Game Score/GP: An all-encompassing metric that weights shot contributions, xP1, exits, entries, rush defence, and in-zone defence to measure impact, rated per game – used to measure volume, not efficiency.

Late in the season, Filmon even started trying more advanced, long possession plays, using look-offs to open passing lanes and weaving rush patterns to get defenders moving in the wrong direction. As he continues to add strength and improve his skating, he should generate even more buzz.

Just a year after being picked in the sixth round, Filmon's become one of the Devils' top prospects with top-nine upside.

Other players covered:
Under “Leap”
Quentin Musty, LW, Sudbury Wolves (San Jose Sharks)
Areas of Improvement: Scoring chance generation, playmaking, overall efficiency
Connor Hvidston, C, Swift Current Broncos (Anaheim Ducks)
Areas of Improvement: Playmaking, transition, scoring chance generation

Under “Bounceback”
Maveric Lamoureux, D, Drummondville Voltigeurs (Arizona Coyotes)
Areas of Improvement: Scoring chance generation, breakouts, advantage creation
He’s that 6’7” guy they got shit for taking at #29 in 2022 from the anti-height police.


Under “Correction”
Amadeus Lombardi, C, Flint Firebirds (Detroit Red Wings)
Areas of Improvement: Playmaking, scoring chance generation

Under “Evolution”
Logan Stankoven, C, Kamloops Blazers (Dallas Stars)
Areas of Improvement: Playmaking, zone entries
Sasha Pastujov, LW, Sarnia Sting (Anaheim Ducks)
Areas of Improvement: Playmaking, zone entries
Joshua Roy, RW, Sherbrooke Phoenix (Montreal Canadiens)
Areas of Improvement: Playmaking, forechecking

The CHL's most improved players and how they did it

Mitch Brown looks at the CHL Prospects that improved the most and how they altered their games for the better.

eprinkside.com

 

[Hisch13r]

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Devils fans:
View attachment 738698


View attachment 738690

Spoiler: That (longish) card explainer here

View attachment 738692



View attachment 738694






View attachment 738695View attachment 738696View attachment 738697

Other players covered:
Under “Leap”
Quentin Musty, LW, Sudbury Wolves (San Jose Sharks)
Areas of Improvement: Scoring chance generation, playmaking, overall efficiency
Connor Hvidston, C, Swift Current Broncos (Anaheim Ducks)
Areas of Improvement: Playmaking, transition, scoring chance generation

Under “Bounceback”
Maveric Lamoureux, D, Drummondville Voltigeurs (Arizona Coyotes)
Areas of Improvement: Scoring chance generation, breakouts, advantage creation
He’s that 6’7” guy they got shit for taking at #29 in 2022 from the anti-height police.


Under “Correction”
Amadeus Lombardi, C, Flint Firebirds (Detroit Red Wings)
Areas of Improvement: Playmaking, scoring chance generation

Under “Evolution”
Logan Stankoven, C, Kamloops Blazers (Dallas Stars)
Areas of Improvement: Playmaking, zone entries
Sasha Pastujov, LW, Sarnia Sting (Anaheim Ducks)
Areas of Improvement: Playmaking, zone entries
Joshua Roy, RW, Sherbrooke Phoenix (Montreal Canadiens)
Areas of Improvement: Playmaking, forechecking

The CHL's most improved players and how they did it

Mitch Brown looks at the CHL Prospects that improved the most and how they altered their games for the better.

eprinkside.com

The xG being off the chart is really promising. That goal scoring leap is no fluke

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

Could be just the beginning for him too, as it sounds like his offensive game improved in a bunch of different ways, and not just his shot.

 

[My3Sons]

View attachment 738686



View attachment 738688

Devils fans:
View attachment 738698


View attachment 738690

Spoiler: That (longish) card explainer here

View attachment 738692



View attachment 738694






View attachment 738695View attachment 738696View attachment 738697

Other players covered:
Under “Leap”
Quentin Musty, LW, Sudbury Wolves (San Jose Sharks)
Areas of Improvement: Scoring chance generation, playmaking, overall efficiency
Connor Hvidston, C, Swift Current Broncos (Anaheim Ducks)
Areas of Improvement: Playmaking, transition, scoring chance generation

Under “Bounceback”
Maveric Lamoureux, D, Drummondville Voltigeurs (Arizona Coyotes)
Areas of Improvement: Scoring chance generation, breakouts, advantage creation
He’s that 6’7” guy they got shit for taking at #29 in 2022 from the anti-height police.


Under “Correction”
Amadeus Lombardi, C, Flint Firebirds (Detroit Red Wings)
Areas of Improvement: Playmaking, scoring chance generation

Under “Evolution”
Logan Stankoven, C, Kamloops Blazers (Dallas Stars)
Areas of Improvement: Playmaking, zone entries
Sasha Pastujov, LW, Sarnia Sting (Anaheim Ducks)
Areas of Improvement: Playmaking, zone entries
Joshua Roy, RW, Sherbrooke Phoenix (Montreal Canadiens)
Areas of Improvement: Playmaking, forechecking

The CHL's most improved players and how they did it

Mitch Brown looks at the CHL Prospects that improved the most and how they altered their games for the better.

eprinkside.com

Thanks for sharing that. Very fun to read. Look at that defensive jump for Filmon. That has to be a statistical anomaly. What a leap. Hopefully he continues to improve.

 

[NJ DevLolz]

I think Filmon is going to be one of the last cuts or even hang around for a few weeks during the regular season. He'll ultimately be sent back, but I wouldn't be surprised if he makes an impression at camp.

 

[Blackjack]

I think Filmon is going to be one of the last cuts or even hang around for a few weeks during the regular season. He'll ultimately be sent back, but I wouldn't be surprised if he makes an impression at camp.

Was thinking the same thing. I wouldn’t be shocked if he stays with the team out of camp, especially if Ruff likes him.

 

[Guadana]

Chances are very slim. Even if they like him, they can easily give him more years for development. They don't need to rush him and he needs to work on the physical side.

 

[NJ DevLolz]

Chances are very slim. Even if they like him, they can easily give him more years for development. They don't need to rush him and he needs to work on the physical side.

Keeping him up here to practice with the team, maybe play a game or two, and collecting ~50k, and then sending him back after two weeks or so is not rushing him. He has to impress in camp and earn it.

 

[HBK27]

Keeping him up here to practice with the team, maybe play a game or two, and collecting ~50k, and then sending him back after two weeks or so is not rushing him. He has to impress in camp and earn it.

There's just no room for him on the roster unless we're hit with injuries or he beats out Holtz, neither of which would be a good sign.

I'm rooting for the kid, but right now I'd consider 11 of the 14 forwards spots already locked.

That leaves the following guys to battle it out for the final 3 spots:
- Lazar (would be surprised to see him waived)
- Foote (would have to clear waivers - highly doubt he's waived)
- Tierney (likely winds up in Utica, but could be kept if injuries happen)
- Holtz (have to hope he cracks the roster by now)
- Clarke (came close last camp)
- Thompson (would have to clear waivers)
- Filmon
- Halonen

I just don't see a scenerio where Filmon sticks. He's still just 19 years old, was a 6th round pick a year ago and just had a breakout season. I know that happened with Bratt, but there was more opportunity to crack the lineup on that 2017 team.

 

[Hisch13r]

There's just no room for him on the roster unless we're hit with injuries or he beats out Holtz, neither of which would be a good sign.

I'm rooting for the kid, but right now I'd consider 11 of the 14 forwards spots already locked.

That leaves the following guys to battle it out for the final 3 spots:
- Lazar (would be surprised to see him waived)
- Foote (would have to clear waivers - highly doubt he's waived)
- Tierney (likely winds up in Utica, but could be kept if injuries happen)
- Holtz (have to hope he cracks the roster by now)
- Clarke (came close last camp)
- Thompson (would have to clear waivers)
- Filmon
- Halonen

I just don't see a scenerio where Filmon sticks. He's still just 19 years old, was a 6th round pick a year ago and just had a breakout season. I know that happened with Bratt, but there was more opportunity to crack the lineup on that 2017 team.

And while Filmon’s good Bratt’s also likely considerably better. A worse player with far less of an opportunity is almost certainly not sticking around. Might be one of the last cuts but he’ll be cut before the season

 

[Guadana]

Keeping him up here to practice with the team, maybe play a game or two, and collecting ~50k, and then sending him back after two weeks or so is not rushing him. He has to impress in camp and earn it.

the problem is limit of roster spots. @HBK27 mentioned all aspects of situation. Again - its not a problem for giving hom more time for both sides. And Devils needs all the depth this year, because they will trying to win SC. It`s more important to have more bodies than give 2-9 games to Filmon. Even if he has potential to look good, he isn`t on the level to compete for more games and longer season right from the beggining.

 

[DevilDog]

Filmon needs more time to develop physically. He’s got some serious muscle he needs to add to that frame.

He may be one of the last cuts at camp, but he WILL be one of the last cuts at camp.