Prospect Info: 122nd overall: Vancouver selects Ethan Keppen (LW, Flint Firebirds)

[tradervik]

A poor man's Matt Tkachuk? I was watching his interview and started thinking this guy gives off a bit of a s**t disturber vibe. Then he mentions Tkachuk as someone he models his game after (along with Jamie Benn).

 

[Brock]

Some additional info:

I had Keppen ranked 14th among OHL'ers
OHL Prospects: My Final Top 50 OHL Players for the 2019 NHL Entry Draft - Part 3: 30-11

He finished 9th in my media/scout poll
OHL Prospects: Final Media/Scout Poll for the 2019 NHL Draft

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

He's got a good center in Flint to play with, Ty Dellandrea. I like seeing that with these later picks.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

Love the reports about his five on five production - definitely a big plus. The size and compete levels are nice to add as well - anyone have any insight into how his skating is?

 

[Craz1bo1]

 

[MS]

Like this pick.

Produced a pile of ES and primary points on a bad team. Also really jacked up his play after a slow start - 51 points in his last 51 games including 22 goals in his last 35 games.

Skating is a bit iffy but not horrible and has a big motor and 3-zone game to go with good size. Probably Troy Brouwer upside but if you can get a big solid bottom-6 guy with a motor like a Barclay Goodrow out of a pick in this range that would be a result.

Flint has been a horrible developmental spot but did finish the year on a 7-6-3 run after starting 9-40-3 and their top 14 scorers are all returning next year so they should turn the corner to become an average OHL team next season, and that shouldn’t be an issue going forward.

 

[Jyrki21]

With the Canucks' OHL prospect stock thinning out and the QMJHL one nonexistent, I'm happy to have at least one guy to watch in juniors if Flint's visit to Ottawa is well-timed.

I know y'all look forward to my annual scouting reports of "He looked alright. Nothing too memorable."

 

[1440]

Watched this and the Podkolzin one. They sound like very similar players stylistically. Can't imagine that its a coincidence that the first three of the Canucks' picks are all aggressive, hard-working, fore-checking "motor" wingers. That billing would also describe J.T. Miller too.

Some additional info:

I had Keppen ranked 14th among OHL'ers
OHL Prospects: My Final Top 50 OHL Players for the 2019 NHL Entry Draft - Part 3: 30-11

He finished 9th in my media/scout poll
OHL Prospects: Final Media/Scout Poll for the 2019 NHL Draft

Here's another quote from Will Scouch in that OHL media/scout poll quoted above:
"If you love Vasily Podkolzin and don’t get him, Keppen is far from a bad alternative, and you could land him far later in the draft than he should go."

 

[Siludin]

I like players who put up a lot of points on bad teams. Especially with late picks.
Mark Scheifele is a good example (though he was taken 7th overall, was a late riser, and probably gets taken even higher in a re-draft)
I liked Peyton Krebs this year too, for instance.

 

[crobro]

interesting pick
"
He is a high-volume shooter, with many of his shots coming from in close, and in the slot, McKeen's Hockey 2019
His frame and willingness to physically engage made him an impressive forechecker as well, Hockeyprospect.com 2019
He has the hockey sense and playmaking ability to make him a dangerous player offensively, Future Considerations 2019
"
Ethan Keppen at eliteprospects.com

Sounds a lot like Dane Fox

 

[CanaFan]

Sounds a lot like Dane Fox

Except Keppen looks like he can skate.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

Watched this and the Podkolzin one. They sound like very similar players stylistically. Can't imagine that its a coincidence that the first three of the Canucks' picks are all aggressive, hard-working, fore-checking "motor" wingers. That billing would also describe J.T. Miller too.



Here's another quote from Will Scouch in that OHL media/scout poll quoted above:
"If you love Vasily Podkolzin and don’t get him, Keppen is far from a bad alternative, and you could land him far later in the draft than he should go."

The big difference between them is that Podkolzin has the skill to complement his power and will, which means that he can occasionally pull a rabbit out of his hat. While he is certainly that gritty, complete forward that will guarantee at least a top-nine role, he can elevate his game at times. He has a big shot and handles the puck far more smoothly than, say, Dylan Cozens.

The technical ability is there for Podkolzin to one day be a strong offensive contributor. He anticipates very well to pressure opponents already, but he needs to learn how to be a more diverse scorer with the puck on his stick. If he can develop that aspect of his game, I can see him being one of the best forwards of the draft class. He is a high-ceiling, high-floor player.

 

[1440]

The big difference between them is that Podkolzin has the skill to complement his power and will, which means that he can occasionally pull a rabbit out of his hat. While he is certainly that gritty, complete forward that will guarantee at least a top-nine role, he can elevate his game at times. He has a big shot and handles the puck far more smoothly than, say, Dylan Cozens.

The technical ability is there for Podkolzin to one day be a strong offensive contributor. He anticipates very well to pressure opponents already, but he needs to learn how to be a more diverse scorer with the puck on his stick. If he can develop that aspect of his game, I can see him being one of the best forwards of the draft class. He is a high-ceiling, high-floor player.

I agree, no doubt Podkolzin is the better player in general. Only makes sense given the draft rankings. Seems like he has better hands, a better shot, and better straight line speed than Keppen.

I like players who put up a lot of points on bad teams. Especially with late picks.
Mark Scheifele is a good example (though he was taken 7th overall, was a late riser, and probably gets taken even higher in a re-draft)
I liked Peyton Krebs this year too, for instance.

In the 4th round you are always going to get a player with some flaws. In this case it is that Keppen points totals were good, but not great. As you mention, he played on a horrendous Flint team, and was one of the few players who was actually driving offense for them. 40+ primary points and a 70% contribution to points scored while he was on the ice are great underlying numbers.

I wanted to do a quick look at what that actually may have meant for his production:
Flint only scored 212 goals but gave up a whopping 350 against in 68 games. League average was 253.5 goals for/against. If Flint had scored 253.5 and Keppen had maintained his 0.28 share of total point involvement (59/212), he would have been a 70 point, 1.04ppg player, which puts him in the same ballpark as players like McMichael, Tomsino and N. Robertson who went in the first and second rounds.

Here is the methodollogy:
If we take all four of those players and divide their point totals (adjusted for games played out of 68) by the team totals, we get values for total point involvement of each player. Multiplying this by 253.5 to correct to league average points gives us a projected point total for each player, which in turn gives a projected points per game.

Here are the OHL results for some of the top U18 players:

Name	Team	GP	G	A	P	PPG	PIM	+/-	Team GF	Team GF/G	Pt Share	Proj Pts	Proj PPG
Arthur Kaliyev (LW)	Hamilton Bulldogs	67	51	51	102	1.52	22	-13	241	3.54	0.43	109	1.60
Ryan Suzuki (C)	Barrie Colts	65	25	50	75	1.15	14	7	221	3.25	0.36	90	1.32
Nicholas Robertson (C/LW)	Peterborough Petes	54	27	28	55	1.02	24	-3	234	3.44	0.30	75	1.11
Marco Rossi (C)	Ottawa 67's	53	29	36	65	1.23	32	51	296	4.35	0.28	71	1.05
Ethan Keppen (LW)	Flint Firebirds	68	30	29	59	0.87	67	-26	212	3.12	0.28	71	1.04
Cole Perfetti (C)	Saginaw Spirit	63	37	37	74	1.17	10	36	294	4.32	0.27	69	1.01
Quinton Byfield (C)	Sudbury Wolves	64	29	32	61	0.95	38	12	254	3.74	0.26	65	0.95
Connor McMichael (C)	London Knights	67	36	36	72	1.07	19	15	299	4.40	0.24	62	0.91
Thomas Harley (D)	Mississauga Steelheads	68	11	47	58	0.85	24	-15	239	3.51	0.24	61	0.90
Philip Tomasino (C)	Niagara IceDogs	67	34	38	72	1.07	32	37	326	4.79	0.22	57	0.84
Cole Mackay (RW)	Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds	65	27	34	61	0.94	38	20	292	4.29	0.22	55	0.81
Jacob Perreault (C)	Sarnia Sting	63	30	25	55	0.87	54	1	271	3.99	0.22	55	0.81

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And, since you mentioned Krebs, WHL players: (WHL average team GF was 221.7)

Name	Team	GP	G	A	P	PPG	PIM	+/-	Team GF	Team GF/G	Pt Share	Proj Pts	Proj PPG
Peyton Krebs (LW/C)	Kootenay Ice	64	19	49	68	1.06	63	-50	181	2.66	0.40	88	1.30
Brayden Tracey (LW)	Moose Jaw Warriors	66	36	45	81	1.23	28	33	234	3.44	0.36	79	1.16
Bowen Byram (D)	Vancouver Giants	67	26	45	71	1.06	80	33	228	3.35	0.32	70	1.03
Dylan Cozens (C/RW)	Lethbridge Hurricanes	68	34	50	84	1.24	30	32	268	3.94	0.31	69	1.02
Kirby Dach (C)	Saskatoon Blades	62	25	48	73	1.18	40	15	259	3.81	0.31	69	1.01

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Obviously one could endlessly manipulate numbers to make certain players look better, but this does give some idea as to how good players on bad teams might be underrated in the draft order.

If you project Krebs to 253.5 goals (say Kootenay was in the OHL) his 68 Kootenay Ice points are equivalent to 101 points in 68 games on an average OHL team.

 

[chum]

die hard canucks fan here, and love the Podkolzin pick.

anyhow, after watching the highlights, there's a funny feeling deep in me that Keppen could end up being a better player than Podkolzin. (and Hoglander better than both Keppen and Podkolzin).

Please, no need to flame. I am just a fan stating an opinion. Hopefully we ended up with 3 really good players. We will see in a decade or so.

 

[biturbo19]

Not the pick i would've made, but it's hard to fault them for grabbing Keppen at this point. Easy to see what they're angling for. He's got a clear skillset and you have to figure his production was suppressed by the Flint factor. A guy like Keppen playing with a legit top-flight playmaker, probably scores a LOT more. He's basically somewhere halfway between the Stukel pick and the Gadjovich pick basically. Who knows where that ends up.

 

[Siludin]

So, Flint is doing better this year but Keppen is clearly not playing top-line minutes.
Judging by his +/- and production, I am guessing he has been in a checking role for most of the season?
Flint has been decent this season. It's a disappointment that Keppen isn't playing top line minutes imo.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Anyone follow Keppen's development this season?
Just from a look at his stats, he looks to have regressed, but that's because he was deployed more defensively? How has his play looked?

 

[VanJack]

Anyone follow Keppen's development this season?
Just from a look at his stats, he looks to have regressed, but that's because he was deployed more defensively? How has his play looked?

No other way to spin it, other than to say a serious regression. Of course by the time you're picking guys in the fourth round, as prospects they can go either way. I'd say that Carson Focht drafted in the fifth round, is probably closer to the NHL than Keppen.

But then you also have to consider that the Canucks record of drafting OHL players in any round, is beyond depressing. A steady string of guys, particularly d-men, who were so bad in the OHL after they were drafted they didn't even earn a contract.

 

[David Bruce Banner]

Never heard why he missed so many games this season. Maybe his lacklustre play was injury related?

 

[MS]

Never heard why he missed so many games this season. Maybe his lacklustre play was injury related?

Yeah, it seems to be impossible to find out what his injury was.

His bigger problem was that he went from being on the top line with Dellandrea for the back half of last season to the 2nd line as a result of the Russian import Oksentiuk coming in and lighting it up on LW.

 

[David Bruce Banner]

Yeah, it seems to be impossible to find out what his injury was.

His bigger problem was that he went from being on the top line with Dellandrea for the back half of last season to the 2nd line as a result of the Russian import Oksentiuk coming in and lighting it up on LW.

Maybe a little of column A and a little of column B. Regardless, his play this year was one of my biggest disappointments. I had him pegged as a bit of sleeper. He's going to really have to turn things around next season to get back on the radar again.

 

[biturbo19]

Yeah, it seems to be impossible to find out what his injury was.

His bigger problem was that he went from being on the top line with Dellandrea for the back half of last season to the 2nd line as a result of the Russian import Oksentiuk coming in and lighting it up on LW.

Yeah. Opportunity can be a real make or break factor for a players' production. Particularly when it comes to a team that isn't especially deep with skilled players to play with. Can kinda get bumped of the edge of a cliff into a wasteland bereft of real skill. It does still speak to something about Keppen, that he's not the sort of player who can really carry a line and drive production on his own and/or with lesser opportunity...but i don't think that was ever really in the profile. He always seemed like more of a "supporting cast" type to me.

 

[VanJack]

A nice article in the Province on Canuck draft pick Carson Focht.....slightly older prospect, but coming off a solid season with Calgary in the Dub. He's far more likely to earn a contract from the Canucks than Keppen imo.

He also more valuable because he's a natural center--where the Canucks have a serious organization weakness. Of course it's too bad that neither guy will have a place to play--at least for the foreseeable future.

 

[MS]

A nice article in the Province on Canuck draft pick Carson Focht.....slightly older prospect, but coming off a solid season with Calgary in the Dub. He's far more likely to earn a contract from the Canucks than Keppen imo.

He also more valuable because he's a natural center--where the Canucks have a serious organization weakness. Of course it's too bad that neither guy will have a place to play--at least for the foreseeable future.

Focht's season was honestly even more disappointing than Keppen's because at least in Keppen's case there is an obvious icetime/usage explanation. Focht was a guy that needed to have a real breakout year and dominate the WHL if he wanted to establish himself as a real prospect, got off to a hot start early ... and then fell on his face.

Focht is undersized ECHL material at this point.

 

[sting101]

Agree @MS

It's too bad the team while watching Woo and Focht couldn't have signed Zamula to a ELC. That kids got some promise.

Keppen is an intriguing Gadjovich to Ferland type prospect.

Needs a huge year this year or he risks not getting signed. I like his potential.