- Jun 25, 2007
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A poor man's Matt Tkachuk? I was watching his interview and started thinking this guy gives off a bit of a s**t disturber vibe. Then he mentions Tkachuk as someone he models his game after (along with Jamie Benn).
Prospect Info: 122nd overall: Vancouver selects Ethan Keppen (LW, Flint Firebirds)
- Thread starter Zombotron
- Start date
Brock
Registered User
Some additional info:
I had Keppen ranked 14th among OHL'ers
OHL Prospects: My Final Top 50 OHL Players for the 2019 NHL Entry Draft - Part 3: 30-11
He finished 9th in my media/scout poll
OHL Prospects: Final Media/Scout Poll for the 2019 NHL Draft
I had Keppen ranked 14th among OHL'ers
OHL Prospects: My Final Top 50 OHL Players for the 2019 NHL Entry Draft - Part 3: 30-11
He finished 9th in my media/scout poll
OHL Prospects: Final Media/Scout Poll for the 2019 NHL Draft
BeardyCanuck03
@BeardyCanuck03
He's got a good center in Flint to play with, Ty Dellandrea. I like seeing that with these later picks.
Mr. Canucklehead
Kitimat Canuck
Love the reports about his five on five production - definitely a big plus. The size and compete levels are nice to add as well - anyone have any insight into how his skating is?
Like this pick.
Produced a pile of ES and primary points on a bad team. Also really jacked up his play after a slow start - 51 points in his last 51 games including 22 goals in his last 35 games.
Skating is a bit iffy but not horrible and has a big motor and 3-zone game to go with good size. Probably Troy Brouwer upside but if you can get a big solid bottom-6 guy with a motor like a Barclay Goodrow out of a pick in this range that would be a result.
Flint has been a horrible developmental spot but did finish the year on a 7-6-3 run after starting 9-40-3 and their top 14 scorers are all returning next year so they should turn the corner to become an average OHL team next season, and that shouldn’t be an issue going forward.
Produced a pile of ES and primary points on a bad team. Also really jacked up his play after a slow start - 51 points in his last 51 games including 22 goals in his last 35 games.
Skating is a bit iffy but not horrible and has a big motor and 3-zone game to go with good size. Probably Troy Brouwer upside but if you can get a big solid bottom-6 guy with a motor like a Barclay Goodrow out of a pick in this range that would be a result.
Flint has been a horrible developmental spot but did finish the year on a 7-6-3 run after starting 9-40-3 and their top 14 scorers are all returning next year so they should turn the corner to become an average OHL team next season, and that shouldn’t be an issue going forward.
With the Canucks' OHL prospect stock thinning out and the QMJHL one nonexistent, I'm happy to have at least one guy to watch in juniors if Flint's visit to Ottawa is well-timed.
I know y'all look forward to my annual scouting reports of "He looked alright. Nothing too memorable."
I know y'all look forward to my annual scouting reports of "He looked alright. Nothing too memorable."
1440
Registered User
- Feb 20, 2013
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Watched this and the Podkolzin one. They sound like very similar players stylistically. Can't imagine that its a coincidence that the first three of the Canucks' picks are all aggressive, hard-working, fore-checking "motor" wingers. That billing would also describe J.T. Miller too.
Here's another quote from Will Scouch in that OHL media/scout poll quoted above:
"If you love Vasily Podkolzin and don’t get him, Keppen is far from a bad alternative, and you could land him far later in the draft than he should go."
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I like players who put up a lot of points on bad teams. Especially with late picks.
Mark Scheifele is a good example (though he was taken 7th overall, was a late riser, and probably gets taken even higher in a re-draft)
I liked Peyton Krebs this year too, for instance.
Mark Scheifele is a good example (though he was taken 7th overall, was a late riser, and probably gets taken even higher in a re-draft)
I liked Peyton Krebs this year too, for instance.
crobro
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- Aug 8, 2008
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Blade Paradigm
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The big difference between them is that Podkolzin has the skill to complement his power and will, which means that he can occasionally pull a rabbit out of his hat. While he is certainly that gritty, complete forward that will guarantee at least a top-nine role, he can elevate his game at times. He has a big shot and handles the puck far more smoothly than, say, Dylan Cozens.
The technical ability is there for Podkolzin to one day be a strong offensive contributor. He anticipates very well to pressure opponents already, but he needs to learn how to be a more diverse scorer with the puck on his stick. If he can develop that aspect of his game, I can see him being one of the best forwards of the draft class. He is a high-ceiling, high-floor player.
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1440
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- Feb 20, 2013
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I agree, no doubt Podkolzin is the better player in general. Only makes sense given the draft rankings. Seems like he has better hands, a better shot, and better straight line speed than Keppen.
In the 4th round you are always going to get a player with some flaws. In this case it is that Keppen points totals were good, but not great. As you mention, he played on a horrendous Flint team, and was one of the few players who was actually driving offense for them. 40+ primary points and a 70% contribution to points scored while he was on the ice are great underlying numbers.
I wanted to do a quick look at what that actually may have meant for his production:
Flint only scored 212 goals but gave up a whopping 350 against in 68 games. League average was 253.5 goals for/against. If Flint had scored 253.5 and Keppen had maintained his 0.28 share of total point involvement (59/212), he would have been a 70 point, 1.04ppg player, which puts him in the same ballpark as players like McMichael, Tomsino and N. Robertson who went in the first and second rounds.
Here is the methodollogy:
If we take all four of those players and divide their point totals (adjusted for games played out of 68) by the team totals, we get values for total point involvement of each player. Multiplying this by 253.5 to correct to league average points gives us a projected point total for each player, which in turn gives a projected points per game.
Here are the OHL results for some of the top U18 players:
| Name | Team | GP | G | A | P | PPG | PIM | +/- | Team GF | Team GF/G | Pt Share | Proj Pts | Proj PPG |
| Arthur Kaliyev (LW) | Hamilton Bulldogs | 67 | 51 | 51 | 102 | 1.52 | 22 | -13 | 241 | 3.54 | 0.43 | 109 | 1.60 |
| Ryan Suzuki (C) | Barrie Colts | 65 | 25 | 50 | 75 | 1.15 | 14 | 7 | 221 | 3.25 | 0.36 | 90 | 1.32 |
| Nicholas Robertson (C/LW) | Peterborough Petes | 54 | 27 | 28 | 55 | 1.02 | 24 | -3 | 234 | 3.44 | 0.30 | 75 | 1.11 |
| Marco Rossi (C) | Ottawa 67's | 53 | 29 | 36 | 65 | 1.23 | 32 | 51 | 296 | 4.35 | 0.28 | 71 | 1.05 |
| Ethan Keppen (LW) | Flint Firebirds | 68 | 30 | 29 | 59 | 0.87 | 67 | -26 | 212 | 3.12 | 0.28 | 71 | 1.04 |
| Cole Perfetti (C) | Saginaw Spirit | 63 | 37 | 37 | 74 | 1.17 | 10 | 36 | 294 | 4.32 | 0.27 | 69 | 1.01 |
| Quinton Byfield (C) | Sudbury Wolves | 64 | 29 | 32 | 61 | 0.95 | 38 | 12 | 254 | 3.74 | 0.26 | 65 | 0.95 |
| Connor McMichael (C) | London Knights | 67 | 36 | 36 | 72 | 1.07 | 19 | 15 | 299 | 4.40 | 0.24 | 62 | 0.91 |
| Thomas Harley (D) | Mississauga Steelheads | 68 | 11 | 47 | 58 | 0.85 | 24 | -15 | 239 | 3.51 | 0.24 | 61 | 0.90 |
| Philip Tomasino (C) | Niagara IceDogs | 67 | 34 | 38 | 72 | 1.07 | 32 | 37 | 326 | 4.79 | 0.22 | 57 | 0.84 |
| Cole Mackay (RW) | Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds | 65 | 27 | 34 | 61 | 0.94 | 38 | 20 | 292 | 4.29 | 0.22 | 55 | 0.81 |
| Jacob Perreault (C) | Sarnia Sting | 63 | 30 | 25 | 55 | 0.87 | 54 | 1 | 271 | 3.99 | 0.22 | 55 | 0.81 |
| Name | Team | GP | G | A | P | PPG | PIM | +/- | Team GF | Team GF/G | Pt Share | Proj Pts | Proj PPG |
| Peyton Krebs (LW/C) | Kootenay Ice | 64 | 19 | 49 | 68 | 1.06 | 63 | -50 | 181 | 2.66 | 0.40 | 88 | 1.30 |
| Brayden Tracey (LW) | Moose Jaw Warriors | 66 | 36 | 45 | 81 | 1.23 | 28 | 33 | 234 | 3.44 | 0.36 | 79 | 1.16 |
| Bowen Byram (D) | Vancouver Giants | 67 | 26 | 45 | 71 | 1.06 | 80 | 33 | 228 | 3.35 | 0.32 | 70 | 1.03 |
| Dylan Cozens (C/RW) | Lethbridge Hurricanes | 68 | 34 | 50 | 84 | 1.24 | 30 | 32 | 268 | 3.94 | 0.31 | 69 | 1.02 |
| Kirby Dach (C) | Saskatoon Blades | 62 | 25 | 48 | 73 | 1.18 | 40 | 15 | 259 | 3.81 | 0.31 | 69 | 1.01 |
If you project Krebs to 253.5 goals (say Kootenay was in the OHL) his 68 Kootenay Ice points are equivalent to 101 points in 68 games on an average OHL team.
die hard canucks fan here, and love the Podkolzin pick.
anyhow, after watching the highlights, there's a funny feeling deep in me that Keppen could end up being a better player than Podkolzin. (and Hoglander better than both Keppen and Podkolzin).
Please, no need to flame. I am just a fan stating an opinion. Hopefully we ended up with 3 really good players. We will see in a decade or so.
anyhow, after watching the highlights, there's a funny feeling deep in me that Keppen could end up being a better player than Podkolzin. (and Hoglander better than both Keppen and Podkolzin).
Please, no need to flame. I am just a fan stating an opinion. Hopefully we ended up with 3 really good players. We will see in a decade or so.
biturbo19
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- Jul 13, 2010
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Not the pick i would've made, but it's hard to fault them for grabbing Keppen at this point. Easy to see what they're angling for. He's got a clear skillset and you have to figure his production was suppressed by the Flint factor. A guy like Keppen playing with a legit top-flight playmaker, probably scores a LOT more. He's basically somewhere halfway between the Stukel pick and the Gadjovich pick basically. Who knows where that ends up.
So, Flint is doing better this year but Keppen is clearly not playing top-line minutes.
Judging by his +/- and production, I am guessing he has been in a checking role for most of the season?
Flint has been decent this season. It's a disappointment that Keppen isn't playing top line minutes imo.
Judging by his +/- and production, I am guessing he has been in a checking role for most of the season?
Flint has been decent this season. It's a disappointment that Keppen isn't playing top line minutes imo.
Frankie Blueberries
Dream Team
- Jan 27, 2016
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Anyone follow Keppen's development this season?
Just from a look at his stats, he looks to have regressed, but that's because he was deployed more defensively? How has his play looked?
Just from a look at his stats, he looks to have regressed, but that's because he was deployed more defensively? How has his play looked?
No other way to spin it, other than to say a serious regression. Of course by the time you're picking guys in the fourth round, as prospects they can go either way. I'd say that Carson Focht drafted in the fifth round, is probably closer to the NHL than Keppen.
But then you also have to consider that the Canucks record of drafting OHL players in any round, is beyond depressing. A steady string of guys, particularly d-men, who were so bad in the OHL after they were drafted they didn't even earn a contract.
David Bruce Banner
Acid Raven Bed Burn
Never heard why he missed so many games this season. Maybe his lacklustre play was injury related?
Yeah, it seems to be impossible to find out what his injury was.
His bigger problem was that he went from being on the top line with Dellandrea for the back half of last season to the 2nd line as a result of the Russian import Oksentiuk coming in and lighting it up on LW.
David Bruce Banner
Acid Raven Bed Burn
biturbo19
Registered User
- Jul 13, 2010
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Yeah. Opportunity can be a real make or break factor for a players' production. Particularly when it comes to a team that isn't especially deep with skilled players to play with. Can kinda get bumped of the edge of a cliff into a wasteland bereft of real skill. It does still speak to something about Keppen, that he's not the sort of player who can really carry a line and drive production on his own and/or with lesser opportunity...but i don't think that was ever really in the profile. He always seemed like more of a "supporting cast" type to me.
A nice article in the Province on Canuck draft pick Carson Focht.....slightly older prospect, but coming off a solid season with Calgary in the Dub. He's far more likely to earn a contract from the Canucks than Keppen imo.
He also more valuable because he's a natural center--where the Canucks have a serious organization weakness. Of course it's too bad that neither guy will have a place to play--at least for the foreseeable future.
He also more valuable because he's a natural center--where the Canucks have a serious organization weakness. Of course it's too bad that neither guy will have a place to play--at least for the foreseeable future.
Focht's season was honestly even more disappointing than Keppen's because at least in Keppen's case there is an obvious icetime/usage explanation. Focht was a guy that needed to have a real breakout year and dominate the WHL if he wanted to establish himself as a real prospect, got off to a hot start early ... and then fell on his face.
Focht is undersized ECHL material at this point.
sting101
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- Feb 8, 2012
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