Prospect Info: 122nd Overall 2024 Draft, LHD Aron Kiviharju

[ijuka]

We have an endless list of LD in the system. We have Brodin-Middleton locked for at least four years. Chisholm will be re-signed. Buium is going to get first dibs at the NHL level of our prospects. Peart. Lambos. O’Rourke. Hunt. Pionk. The depth at LD is so mind numbingly stupid. Kiviharju will be lucky to even play AHL at this point. There’s no room for him. 3-4 LD prospects will need to be traded just to find an AHL spot for him. How do you expect his value to rise if he can’t even find a spot to play?

He can play Liiga, right? Why would AHL or NHL be his only options... Why would there even need to be room for him? If he is good enough to bring him over. If he's not good enough, then you don't bring him over. It's... no spot away from anyone.

Also, on most lists he was on late 1st round, and he was picked in the 4th round. You're talking about need and positions as if that matters... at all. It doesn't. Even if he cannot play LD a single game for the Wild, if he ends up becoming good enough, he can simply be traded for someone in a different role.

Picking for need is such a strange philosophy, I've never understood...

A lot can happen during 5 years. When(if) he comes to NHL at around 23 years of age, who knows what the needs of Wild are at the time? Maybe they'll have an LD drought and are full of wingers. How could you ever know that in advance?

 

[AKL]

Picking for need is such a strange philosophy, I've never understood...

Especially in the 4th round lol

 

[thestonedkoala]

I simply disagree. Hence the reason the discussion is longer…

You guys like the midget that plays a position we have an abundance of and has injury issues.

I like the big right shot forwards that went shortly after him.

Burrows was 72nd in Pronman’s 7 round mock right before the draft. He was there at 122. Patterson was 94th in the mock. Available at 122… Zether was 68th in the mock. Available at 122…

There were other fallers that made more sense for our organization in my personal opinion.

Kiviharju was considered one of the smartest players in this draft; it's just everything else needs to be worked on. Something that Brackett has emphasized is getting players with high IQ and Kiviharji fits that. He also offered tremendous value in the 4th as he was slated to go much, much earlier.

You pick the BPA and he was by far the best player available.

The only player I really disagree with is the 6th rounder as it was a) an overager and b) Satan was still there.

 

[Digitalbooya]

He can play Liiga, right? Why would AHL or NHL be his only options... Why would there even need to be room for him? If he is good enough to bring him over. If he's not good enough, then you don't bring him over. It's... no spot away from anyone.

Also, on most lists he was on late 1st round, and he was picked in the 4th round. You're talking about need and positions as if that matters... at all. It doesn't. Even if he cannot play LD a single game for the Wild, if he ends up becoming good enough, he can simply be traded for someone in a different role.

Picking for need is such a strange philosophy, I've never understood...

A lot can happen during 5 years. When(if) he comes to NHL at around 23 years of age, who knows what the needs of Wild are at the time? Maybe they'll have an LD drought and are full of wingers. How could you ever know that in advance?

People need to stop saying this. I guarantee no one would have been happy with him in the late 1st.

 

[BagHead]

People need to stop saying this. I guarantee no one would have been happy with him in the late 1st.

I said previously that I thought he'd go in the 2nd. Most lists had him between 20-40. I figured his injury and size would result in his being a 2nd rounder, and that's where I'd have become ok with taking him. I have used the words "1st round" in relation to his skill level, because that's what the scouting reports allude to, but his specific risk factors would have kept me away from selecting him there, if I were a GM.

 

[Digitalbooya]

I said previously that I thought he'd go in the 2nd. Most lists had him between 20-40. I figured his injury and size would result in his being a 2nd rounder, and that's where I'd have become ok with taking him. I have used the words "1st round" in relation to his skill level, because that's what the scouting reports allude to, but his specific risk factors would have kept me away from selecting him there, if I were a GM.

I would have been pissed if we took Kiviharju in the 2nd over Ritchie.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I would have been pissed if we took Kiviharju in the 2nd over Ritchie.

I think that goes without saying.

 

[Digitalbooya]

I think that goes without saying.

So can we officially drop the top 40/late 1st schtick that people keep saying? He was picked where he was supposed to be picked. I just think it was bad value for us as an organization.

 

[thestonedkoala]

So can we officially drop the top 40/late 1st schtick that people keep saying? He was picked where he was supposed to be picked. I just think it was bad value for us as an organization.

And the players you listed were picked where they were picked. Central Scouting had Kiviharju listed as the 7th best (probably dropped) for EU. McKenzie had him at 23, Button had him at 21. The lowest was McKeen's Hockey and that was at 45. He was listed as high as 7. Most ranked him in the 20s.

So Minnesota should have passed on Buium because they had a bunch of left-handed defensemen in the system?

The Wild can't pass on skill just because they have an abundance of players at that position. It'd be like passing on a center, because they have a bunch of centers.

 

[Circulartheory]

Im in the camp that position should be a consideration. Not the driving factor but one of the factors.

And that said, I am also in the camp that we do not have any quantity of quality at LD. We have quantity of ... Sad to say ... Busts, AHLnscrubs or at best #6 dmen.

So Im in the middle of the debate. He's a skilled LD, which is exactly what we need.

 

[Digitalbooya]

And the players you listed were picked where they were picked. Central Scouting had Kiviharju listed as the 7th best (probably dropped) for EU. McKenzie had him at 23, Button had him at 21. The lowest was McKeen's Hockey and that was at 45. He was listed as high as 7. Most ranked him in the 20s.

So Minnesota should have passed on Buium because they had a bunch of left-handed defensemen in the system?

The Wild can't pass on skill just because they have an abundance of players at that position. It'd be like passing on a center, because they have a bunch of centers.

What a ridiculous thing to say. Buium is so far ahead of every LD in the organization in terms of skill and ceiling. Kiviharju is not even close to the level of player Buium is. Buium looks like a top pairing guy, something Minnesota needs and covets for future playoff runs. Kiviharju looks like another guy to add to our stack of “meh” guys we have in the AHL.

Can you definitively tell me that Kiviharju is better than Peart/Lambos/Hunt/O’Rourke?

 

[thestonedkoala]

Can you definitively tell me that Kiviharju is better than Peart/Lambos/Hunt/O’Rourke?

Lambos/Hunt/O'Rourke wishes they had Kivihajru's resume before they were drafted. Kivihajru's potential...his ceiling is so much higher at this point then those three who have showed very little development since being drafted. So I can tell you that yes at this point I have him ahead of those three simply because he hasn't shown his potential yet.

 

[Circulartheory]

What a ridiculous thing to say. Buium is so far ahead of every LD in the organization in terms of skill and ceiling. Kiviharju is not even close to the level of player Buium is. Buium looks like a top pairing guy, something Minnesota needs and covets for future playoff runs. Kiviharju looks like another guy to add to our stack of “meh” guys we have in the AHL.

Can you definitively tell me that Kiviharju is better than Peart/Lambos/Hunt/O’Rourke?

I think Peart/Lambos/Hunt/ROR are all safer bets to be NHLers but I don't see any of them being more, at best, to be #5-6 guys. So if we drafted someone like John Whipple at #122 then I would be with you on the LD point. But if we drafted an LD, I would be fine if it was either 1) a player with upside higher than a bottom pairing or 2) 6-3+ physical dmen. We were missing both types of defensemen (now we got Buium, Kiviharju and Soini).

Peart/Lambos/Hunt/ROR are decent prospects but are all trending downwards, are all average size, and now starting to show only average skill. At the point in the 4th round. outside of Buium, we "had" no prospects with any upside, safe or not.

I think there is a time where you can draft in the late rounds for depth players because you need those Duhaimes, Dewars, Middletons on ELCs so I don't agree with some others who think you just draft all high risk/reward types. But like you said, we got tons of LD, but all of them are competitng for bottom pairing roles. None of them are conflict with Kiviharju unless you believe Peart has any PP QB upside.

EDIT: This is where I'll leave the discussion

 

[Jbcraig1883]

Just for the record, I can see where you are coming from. I didn't have him on my draft list (as seen in the draft thread). I had other players I'd have taken as well.

But with that said, I also view the LHD surplus thing differently and know that he was still rated higher than a 4th across the board from most legit scouting services, and since the Wild traded back, it seems to me their list was running dry and he was at the top of it.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

It's the problem with not being able to see their board. If they had Kiviharju at (let's say) #55, do want them to pass on him for RS wingers that they have ranked in the 90's? If so, then you better not be bringing up "BPA" again.

It's just stuff we're never going to know.

I think I'm on record wanting somebody else in the draft GDT (Burrows I think). Slight disappointment that he wasn't their BPA, but I don't expect to win them all.

Again, slight disappointment that they went with Ritchie over Artamonov, but I guess Ritchie has 1 trait that I like (right handed).

The LD logjam only matters if he's good, and then we get to decide if he's better, equal or worse than the guys already there and adjust accordingly. Either way, I'm not expecting anything soon. 5 years and both Brodin and Middleton are likely to be gone.

Hope he has an awesome year this year.

 

[Digitalbooya]

It's the problem with not being able to see their board. If they had Kiviharju at (let's say) #55, do want them to pass on him for RS wingers that they have ranked in the 90's? If so, then you better not be bringing up "BPA" again.

It's just stuff we're never going to know.

I think I'm on record wanting somebody else in the draft GDT (Burrows I think). Slight disappointment that he wasn't their BPA, but I don't expect to win them all.

Again, slight disappointment that they went with Ritchie over Artamonov, but I guess Ritchie has 1 trait that I like (right handed).

The LD logjam only matters if he's good, and then we get to decide if he's better, equal or worse than the guys already there and adjust accordingly. Either way, I'm not expecting anything soon. 5 years and both Brodin and Middleton are likely to be gone.

Hope he has an awesome year this year.

I think BPA is different for rounds 1 and 2 versus rounds 4, 5, 6. The difference in the later rounds is negligible. We will see who has the better career of the players mentioned.

 

[BagHead]

I would have been pissed if we took Kiviharju in the 2nd over Ritchie.

I'm not sure I'd say pissed for myself, but certainly not enthusiastic. I wouldn't be praising that decision. 4th round, however, I think that's good value, maybe even great value depending on how he develops from here. I know he's got a nice skillset and a smart mind, but he definitely needs a lot of development. He's already lost about 2 years of it.

I kind of view Kiviharju like I would a business that is not matured enough yet to be turning a profit. I can see the potential, I can see that it might be explosive, but it's not there yet and if it doesn't get there fast enough it'll run out of time/money and fail. He needs to stay healthy and develop, or the pick will "bust".

 

[DANOZ28]

he could be the next spurgeon or he could be the next filip johansson in the 4th rnd why not take a home run swing? trust in judd! (ps no way stramel was a judd pick)

 

[Digitalbooya]

I'm not sure I'd say pissed for myself, but certainly not enthusiastic. I wouldn't be praising that decision. 4th round, however, I think that's good value, maybe even great value depending on how he develops from here. I know he's got a nice skillset and a smart mind, but he definitely needs a lot of development. He's already lost about 2 years of it.

I kind of view Kiviharju like I would a business that is not matured enough yet to be turning a profit. I can see the potential, I can see that it might be explosive, but it's not there yet and if it doesn't get there fast enough it'll run out of time/money and fail. He needs to stay healthy and develop, or the pick will "bust".

I hope you’re right. I’d love to eat crow like I did with Faber.

 

[Sampe from the 2000s]

I simply disagree. Hence the reason the discussion is longer…

You guys like the midget that plays a position we have an abundance of and has injury issues.

I like the big right shot forwards that went shortly after him.

Burrows was 72nd in Pronman’s 7 round mock right before the draft. He was there at 122. Patterson was 94th in the mock. Available at 122… Zether was 68th in the mock. Available at 122…

There were other fallers that made more sense for our organization in my personal opinion.

You have your own preferences and that's completely fine. But Pronman doesn't make the picks. His opinion doesn't matter any more than ours does. For the purposes of determining "fallers", the only list beyond the NHL teams' actual selections that matters is Bob McKenzie's. On that list, Kiviharju was ranked 52nd, Zether 88th, Burrows had dropped from an honorable mention in January to no mention, and Patterson wasn't mentioned on either list. That's how 10 out of 32 NHL teams roughly valued these players (on average).

In fact, not a single player ranked ahead of Kiviharju on Bob's list was available at #122. Based on the NHL teams' consensus evaluations, he was easily the BPA. Luke Misa I believe was the closest at #72 (he went 150th overall). Tomas Galvas (undrafted) at #82 was third, followed by Colton Roberts at #84 (131st) and then Zether (129th).

Did Kiviharju's stock plummet after McKenzie interviewed the 10 teams? That's entirely possible. But mathematically, it's not necessary. There's also the possibility that every team ranked him close to 52nd overall, and that *this* is the reason he fell in the draft. For an example, Kiviharju was my BPA at #122, but even *after* he was taken my 38th ranked guy was still available for another round and then some! And it wasn't until pick #219 that all the players in my top 64 were gone. That's how draft mathematics work. Beyond the consensus top 15/20 (evidently top 20 this year), the NHL teams disagree so much with one another that their 2nd round picks could be available as late as the seventh round. Which also means that if every team ranks you in the second round, you are guaranteed to "fall" in the draft.

What we can be fairly sure of, however, is that none of the teams had Kiviharju in their first round. Otherwise they probably would have traded up to get him before #122. Even I didn't have him that high (I had him #35/36 depending on the point of view), and I always emphasize talent over size. The way Bob phrased it says it all: "And all but two prospects between 40 and 52 received at least one first-round vote." Kiviharju had been so hyped that he just had to be included there, making people think that such a specific number can only mean that he *did* receive a first round vote. The other guy was most likely Shuravin at #50, as he wasn't taken until #97.

 

[ijuka]

I simply disagree. Hence the reason the discussion is longer…

You guys like the midget that plays a position we have an abundance of and has injury issues.

I like the big right shot forwards that went shortly after him.

Burrows was 72nd in Pronman’s 7 round mock right before the draft. He was there at 122. Patterson was 94th in the mock. Available at 122… Zether was 68th in the mock. Available at 122…

There were other fallers that made more sense for our organization in my personal opinion.

Midget, yes, injuries, yes, but also quite strong talent levels at #122. I think that most would consider this a steal and easily one that warrants overruling some positional considerations(which aren't even that important in the first place). Especially because the position situation right now doesn't matter much for position situation in 5 years.

I find it so strange how disappointed a person can be in a #122 pick for someone who was projected in the top two rounds. You'd imagine they were reaching for someone who wasn't within top 200. Was is Leafs who picked someone who was ranked like #1300? And their pick for him was #120. And there was less outrage for that pick than this one here, just makes no sense.

As for Pronman, wasn't Kiviharju #59 even in his mock?


How about you see how he looks July 9-11 and form an opinion then? Too difficult?

 

[Arturia Pendragon]

Maybe Kiviharju will enroll at the U, leading the team in scoring each year, winning multiple championships in triple OT, scoring the GWG… and all against Wisconsin ironically enough .

Then we can trade him for Fiala, and the boards will explode into a fever-pitch of elation. Knowing both Faber and Fiala are ours; a dream come true at last. Then, and only then, will I be satisfied with the pick.