Prospect Info: 122nd Overall 2024 Draft, LHD Aron Kiviharju

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Wabit

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5'10" defenders that were regulars on the last 10 Stanley Cup Winners.

Panthers: N/A
Golden Knights: N/A
Avalanche: Girard
Lightning: N/A
Lightning: N/A
Blues: N/A
Capitals: N/A
Penguins: N/A
Penguins: N/A
Blackhawks: Timonen (0pts, 8:39 TOI in the playoffs)

I'll save you some time and energy DB. You're pissing into the wind with this topic on the Wild board. Everything you're going to say I've already said at least once, if not many more times.

Even for COL Girard (7 of 20 games played) got injured in the 2nd round and was out the rest of that Cup run.
 
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AKL

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Krug is/was 5'9" 190+lbs. If Kiviharju adds 20lbs or more, I guess that wouldn't be the end of the world. If he's Spurgeon (167lbs) then it is a problem.

Which is funny because Spurgeon is miles better at hockey than Krug
 

Prior

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The best Wild teams of the recent past failed in the playoffs in part because Spurgeon couldn’t hold up physically in the playoffs when the game changes both on the ice and in the rule book. But the same can also be said of Brodin. Two defenders who are quality but have not been able to elevate themselves when the Wild needed them most.

But there were other large factors in their lack of success. Scoring drying up, weak up the middle, lack of ability to win draws, and awful special teams play on both ends.
 

Wabit

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I’m saying there are a lot of reasons that they might’ve lost that game outside of short defensemen.

It didn't help them win, that's for sure. DB's point still stands.

I made that argument with all CF teams and teams with sub 6'0" d-men in the past. I'm not doing it again because it's a waste of my time and energy because Spurgeon is so loved on here that he might as well be made of Teflon.
 

AKL

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It didn't help them win, that's for sure. DB's point still stands.

Guess we can say the same about 6'9 Chara and 6'6 Carlo?

Edmonton had plenty of big D this year and they couldn't win. In fact I don't think they dressed a D under 6'.

I could keep going I'm sure
 
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Dr Jan Itor

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Krug is/was 5'9" 190+lbs. If Kiviharju adds 20lbs or more, I guess that wouldn't be the end of the world. If he's Spurgeon (167lbs) then it is a problem.
The whole 2.0 thing, I wasn't being specific as in matching him measurables-wise Just meant general top 4, #2/#3 defenseman skills.

It didn't help them win, that's for sure. DB's point still stands.

I made that argument with all CF teams and teams with sub 6'0" d-men in the past. I'm not doing it again because it's a waste of my time and energy because Spurgeon is so loved on here that he might as well be made of Teflon.
Thanks.
 
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Digitalbooya

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Which is funny because Spurgeon is miles better at hockey than Krug
Spurgeon is an analytical darling that gets crushed in the playoffs when size actually matters. I cannot recall a single playoff series where his size and soft play weren't a detriment to this team. Maybe the Colorado series? Brodin is the same way. Sure, he skates well and overall skills are fine. But he gets caved in by the physicality of the playoff game despite his 6'2" 196lb frame.

We don't have a 6'9" 250lb Chara or 6'6" 220 lb Carlo to do the heavy lifting in the crease. We've got Middleton and Faber doing that in our current top 4 lol. That's why people wanted guys like Elick, Emery and Kleber to fall to our 2nd round pick. Big bodies that would be bullied.
 

Wabit

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Spurgeon is an analytical darling that gets crushed in the playoffs when size actually matters. I cannot recall a single playoff series where his size and soft play weren't a detriment to this team. Maybe the Colorado series? Brodin is the same way. Sure, he skates well and overall skills are fine. But he gets caved in by the physicality of the playoff game despite his 6'2" 196lb frame.

We don't have a 6'9" 250lb Chara or 6'6" 220 lb Carlo to do the heavy lifting in the crease. We've got Middleton and Faber doing that in our current top 4 lol. That's why people wanted guys like Elick, Emery and Kleber to fall to our 2nd round pick. Big bodies that would be bullied.

No. I did not hack this account.
 

Digitalbooya

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No. I did not hack this account.
I wouldn't have a huge problem with Spurgeon if we had some big bodied dudes everywhere else. Faber and Chisholm are meh sized, not big or small. Brodin plays soft. Middleton is big, but limited puck skills. Bogo is the same with the added negative of injuries.

Shai Buium would be an awesome target for us. 6'3" 209lbs.

Z. Buium-Faber
Middleton-Brodin
S. Buium-Spurgeon

You've got your best skilled dmen on the 1st pair and some nice complements of sandpaper+playstyle with the bottom two pairings.
 

Spurgeon

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Spurgeon is an analytical darling that gets crushed in the playoffs when size actually matters. I cannot recall a single playoff series where his size and soft play weren't a detriment to this team. Maybe the Colorado series? Brodin is the same way. Sure, he skates well and overall skills are fine. But he gets caved in by the physicality of the playoff game despite his 6'2" 196lb frame.

We don't have a 6'9" 250lb Chara or 6'6" 220 lb Carlo to do the heavy lifting in the crease. We've got Middleton and Faber doing that in our current top 4 lol. That's why people wanted guys like Elick, Emery and Kleber to fall to our 2nd round pick. Big bodies that would be bullied.
What specific sequences did Spurgeon’s size directly lead to their losses in the playoffs?
 

Digitalbooya

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What specific sequences did Spurgeon’s size directly lead to their losses in the playoffs?
I'm not going to rehash specifics because this goes back 10+ years. Every playoff series loss always felt like Spurgeon and Brodin left a lot to be desired in terms of their play. They play the game way too soft for playoff hockey.
 

Spurgeon

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I'm not going to rehash specifics because this goes back 10+ years. Every playoff series loss always felt like Spurgeon and Brodin left a lot to be desired in terms of their play. They play the game way too soft for playoff hockey.
If the analytics tell another story though, it’s hard to make the argument that their size was the reasoning for the playoff losses.

Both players have had strong & weak performances in the playoffs. Playoff success goes well beyond the play of singular players though.

Kiviharju developing into a player even half the caliber of defenseman as Spurgeon would be fantastic.
 
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Digitalbooya

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If the analytics tell another story though, it’s hard to make the argument that their size was the reasoning for the playoff losses.

Both players have had strong & weak performances in the playoffs. Playoff success goes well beyond the play of singular players though.

Kiviharju developing into a player even half the caliber of defenseman as Spurgeon would be fantastic.
Do they?
2021-2023 playoffs:
Spurgeon 5v5 had a sub 50% corsi, fenwick, shots for %, xGF %, scoring chances for %, and a crisp 37.5% GF%.

For a reference, Dumba was better in every category during the same time frame. That’s the post injury way less good version of Dumba.

2018-2020 playoffs:
Spurgeon 5v5 just barely over 40% for corsi and fenwick. Sub 40% for shots for % and xGF%. His GF% was 23%….

Dumba’s numbers during that same timeframe are not that great, but they are substantially better than Spurgeon’s.

Would you care to show what analytics you’re looking at?
 

Wabit

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Guess we can say the same about 6'9 Chara and 6'6 Carlo?

Edmonton had plenty of big D this year and they couldn't win. In fact I don't think they dressed a D under 6'.

I could keep going I'm sure

I'm sure you could.
 

Spurgeon

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Do they?
2021-2023 playoffs:
Spurgeon 5v5 had a sub 50% corsi, fenwick, shots for %, xGF %, scoring chances for %, and a crisp 37.5% GF%.

For a reference, Dumba was better in every category during the same time frame. That’s the post injury way less good version of Dumba.

2018-2020 playoffs:
Spurgeon 5v5 just barely over 40% for corsi and fenwick. Sub 40% for shots for % and xGF%. His GF% was 23%….

Dumba’s numbers during that same timeframe are not that great, but they are substantially better than Spurgeon’s.

Would you care to show what analytics you’re looking at?
More so beyond the scope of individual analytics.

I’ll do a breakdown when I’m not tired & can tolerate this site’s refreshing issues.
 

Wabit

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What specific sequences did Spurgeon’s size directly lead to their losses in the playoffs?

He's just really unlucky, that's all.

Career Playoffs he's -12 5v5, -18 ES, and -15 all situations. 2 of 10 Playoff he's had a + gF/gA (ES) total.

VAN series 8 of 12GA he was on the ice (he had a great G1 of that series)
DAL series 14 of 21 GA he was on the ice for

The Blues (21-22) series was the only good series he's had in a season Yeo wasn't the HC.
 

Wabit

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Would you care to show what analytics you’re looking at?
I'll save you the time and energy and play out where this is going to go.

-The x/stats (x/GF, xGA, x+/-). Those are the go to adv stats for Spurgeon. The choice will be either ES or 5v5, whichever looks better will get used. /60 stats may or may not be used personal preference, because they look better, or whatever.
It doesn't matter if the scoreboard ended up a 1GF/6GA, the x/stats will say 3.4 xGF and 3.9 xGA. So the x/stats are the numbers that will be used for a Playoff series. The goalies stunk and the rest of team couldn't score when he was on the ice will be the excuse.
On the flip side the onice totals will be 57GF/35GA (+22) for a season, and the xstats will say 55.1 xGF and 46.6 xGA (x+8.5) so the +22 will be used instead. Both might be used and the "He's just so good the team almost tripled what was expected" will be said.
-QoC faced will not be mentioned, because it's not a readily available stat. If it is somehow brought up and loooks bad for Spurgeon then it'll be the coaches fault for how he's been used.
-5v5 and ES ToI/g won't be used because it shows that Spurgeon is playing somewhere between 4D-6D for the Wild. Overall ToI/g will be used because bumps Spurgeon closer to Brodin/Dumba due to PP time (none of them should be on the PP).
-PK stats other than ToI won't be used for most seasons. Spurgeon, most seasons, has bad GA/60 compared to the other d-men on the team. The goalies need to be better and it's only a small sample size of time tend to get brought up.
-PP stats will be used, they look nice, but that is due to the PP1 FWDs not really the point d-man. The stats are all similar no matter who was on the point for the last few seasons. The with/without backs this up, is the counter argument.
-Spurgeon is a top 20 d-man in the league because he showed up in the Norris voting. The reality is yes somewhere between 0.5% (1 voter) and 2.7% (5 voters) of the Norris award (~190) voters thought he was worth giving a vote to. That's roughly is the amount as the 3rd party candidates share of US Presidential elections.
-If you bring up the team W-L-OTL record being better without Spurgeon than with him the reply will just end up being that the team played easier teams when he was out. If someone does a deep dive they'll say the team GA/g went up without Spurgeon, but they'll leave out the team GF/g went up by a little bit more.
-There are a few others, but they just end up coming back to a point already talked about. And the circle starts again.


I'll tell you again. This isn't the hill you want to die on. You're not going to change anyone's opinion on here. You're fighting a battle of people's feelings about something with logic. The numbers/stats don't really matter; they can be manipulated, spun, ignored in favor of different stats. This isn't just a Spurgeon specific thing it goes for many players/prospects.

If you're feeling feisty and just want to poke the bear, go for it. I still do from time to time. But overall it's really not worth the time and/or energy.


Side note: I just learned that the PHWA has made the award voters ballots public for the last few years.
Awards Archive – Professional Hockey Writers Association If anyone is interested.
 
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