GDT: #12 | Bruins vs Flyers | Saturday, November 2, 2024 | 1:00 PM | NBCSP, 97.5 FM

[Beef Invictus]

It's one thing to take chances in the O-zone, where the benefit should outweigh the cost.
It's quite another to take chances in the neutral zone and D-zone where the reward is less and the risk is higher.
You want Michkov to be aggressive, you don't want him to be stupid.

To play smart hockey, he needs time to understand what he can get away with at this level and when he shouldn't force things. That comes with experience.

I'd point out that TB, a first class organization, brought Kucherov along much slower than Torts is doing with Michkov.
Right now he's playing 18:10 and 14:25 at ES, 2nd to only TK.
And you can see the impact on him. He's not as explosive as he was starting the season.
So Torts should sit him a game here and there, and have him skip some shifts.

The Flyers do not deserve this level of benefit of the doubt considering how they cleanse all prospects of creativity over time.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Which is why they drafted Luchanko and will draft at least one more center this summer.
Same on defense, they drafted Bonk and will draft at least one more D-man this summer.

But you don't need to add a half dozen top six forwards, two solid centers, pushing Frost down to 3C and Couts to LW would make the top 9 much better. Same on defense, add another D-man to pair with Bonk and Andrae, Drysdale, etc. become 3rd pair candidates.

They don't have to hit on every pick this summer, just land 2-3 top 6/top 4 guys and you can whiff or end up with bottom of the roster players with the other picks.

Drafting another 3C isn't going to fix their talent issues.

 

[Larry44]

The Flyers organization deserves nothing but scorn. They can take their room, culture and Gritty dolls and f*** off.

Amen!

 

[Larry44]

So let’s say they draft a center with their pick this year. Next season Luchanko will be 19 and the 2025 draft pick will be 18. Unless their pick is Hagens, the draft pick probably isn’t on the team till he’s around 20. Same with Luchanko. And it will take the players a couple seasons at the minimum most likely till they can be top 6 centers. Let’s say that happens when they are 22, which is somewhat optimistic. That’s 4 years from this season. There is no players coming in to fix this mess right away. Until Luchanko, Bonk, the 2025 nhl draftees are in the NHL for a few seasons the Flyers will have no help coming and no one that can fill shoes adequately

This. They could turn a corner by 2028 and be Cup-Competitive by 2030. Anyone thinking they are a tweak away from contention or that the rebuild is really over is deluding themselves. They SHOULD have really tanked a few years ago, then they might be on the way up by now. Now, they need to swim to the bottom for a couple years and do a proper rebuild.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

This. They could turn a corner by 2028 and be Cup-Competitive by 2030. Anyone thinking they are a tweak away from contention or that the rebuild is really over is deluding themselves. They SHOULD have really tanked a few years ago, then they might be on the way up by now. Now, they need to swim to the bottom for a couple years and do a proper rebuild.

I suppose it’s better late than never. The worst possible moves would be trading for or signing top 6 and top 4 talent. They just need to ride this out till they can fill big holes on the team with draftees. 3-4 years of a top 5 picks can go a long way

 

[DAVIDE1333]

This. They could turn a corner by 2028 and be Cup-Competitive by 2030. Anyone thinking they are a tweak away from contention or that the rebuild is really over is deluding themselves. They SHOULD have really tanked a few years ago, then they might be on the way up by now. Now, they need to swim to the bottom for a couple years and do a proper rebuild.

What is sad is just because they could turn the corner by 2028 doesn't mean they will. Not many of their recent moves make me believe this will be the case.

 

[Larry44]

What is sad is just because they could turn the corner by 2028 doesn't mean they will. Not many of their recent moves make me believe this will be the case.

Agreed, the management clown car does not inspire confidence. I’ve been a fan for 52 years and I don’t think I’ll live to see another Cup no matter how long I live.

 

[BiggE]

This. They could turn a corner by 2028 and be Cup-Competitive by 2030. Anyone thinking they are a tweak away from contention or that the rebuild is really over is deluding themselves. They SHOULD have really tanked a few years ago, then they might be on the way up by now. Now, they need to swim to the bottom for a couple years and do a proper rebuild.

They won’t be competing for a Cup anytime soon because the current management team is incompetent. The only moves I expect them to make between now and the draft are swapping Frost for a 3rd round pick in January and flipping EJ for a 6th at the deadline.

Then after (hopefully) landing a legit prospect with their top 10 1st, I fully expect them to trade one of their remaining firsts for an aging center who used to be a borderline 1C but is now barely a 2C and use the other to draft a Dman with size.

They will improve enough by 2027-28 to sneak into the playoffs a few times over the next half dozen or so seasons but they’ll be lucky to win a round and, by 2033-34, they’ll be right back where they were in 2022.

The organization is a dumpster fire.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

They won’t be competing for a Cup anytime soon because the current management team is incompetent. The only moves I expect them to make between now and the draft are swapping Frost for a 3rd round pick in January and flipping EJ for a 6th at the deadline.

Then after (hopefully) landing a legit prospect with their top 10 1st, I fully expect them to trade one of their remaining firsts for an aging center who used to be a borderline 1C but is now barely a 2C and use the other to draft a Dman with size.

They will improve enough by 2027-28 to sneak into the playoffs a few times over the next half dozen or so seasons but they’ll be lucky to win a round and, by 2033-34, they’ll be right back where they were in 2022.

The organization is a dumpster fire.

facts check out.

 

[BiggE]

Based on tiebreakers the Flyers are currently 31st. C’mon boys, 32nd is there for the taking!

 

[deadhead]

I suppose it’s better late than never. The worst possible moves would be trading for or signing top 6 and top 4 talent. They just need to ride this out till they can fill big holes on the team with draftees. 3-4 years of a top 5 picks can go a long way

Lot's of ways to skin a cap.

If Zavragin is the next Shesterkin, I'll take that over any top 5 pick (except #1 in the right draft).
You need to draft well, find talent on the margin, and make smart trades.

I have no problem trading for a top 6/top 4 player who is under 25.

You don't need to hit on every 1st and 2nd rd pick, you need to hit big on a couple.

 

[freakydallas13]

If Zavragin is the next Shesterkin, I'll take that over any top 5 pick (except #1 in the right draft).

I'd love for Zavragin to become a top 3 goalie in the league, but that is a HUGE "if" in your statement. The chances of that happening seem incredibly......low.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

Lot's of ways to skin a cap.

If Zavragin is the next Shesterkin, I'll take that over any top 5 pick (except #1 in the right draft).
You need to draft well, find talent on the margin, and make smart trades.

I have no problem trading for a top 6/top 4 player who is under 25.

You don't need to hit on every 1st and 2nd rd pick, you need to hit big on a couple.

A great goalie with a mediocre team can have a bit of a Cinderella run but it usually ends in the conference finals or SCF. You’re more likely to win with a bunch of great forwards and defense with a mediocre goalie

Goalies are so volatile, especially as prospects that it almost impossible to predict. I’m not ready to crown a future vezina caliber goalie, especially with Flyers’ goaltending luck. I’m definitely not banking all my stakes on an 18-22 year old goalie who’s never played a single NHL game

 

[deadhead]

I'd love for Zavragin to become a top 3 goalie in the league, but that is a HUGE "if" in your statement. The chances of that happening seem incredibly......low.

I wouldn't say incredibly low, if he can continue this level of play at 19, that's actually better at that age in the KHL than Shesterkin or Sorokin. That doesn't guarantee he'll end up as good as them, but it means he has a good chance of doing so.

But goalies are volatile, which is why a smart team is constantly adding to their goalie stable.
Flyers took Bjarnason in the 2nd rd (who is playing very well this season) and jumped on Zavragin when he was still on the board, even though they had Ersson and Kolosov.

I expect them to draft 1 or 2 more goalies in the middle rounds the next couple drafts for that reason.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

And WE are the ones that overrate prospects.

Sheesh.

 

[deadhead]

And WE are the ones that overrate prospects.

Sheesh.

Ask @Appleyard how rare it is for a 19 year old goalie to be among the league leaders, much less even starting in the KHL.

If he keeps it up, Zavragin is in a very select group, the goalie equivalent of Michkov.

 

[freakydallas13]

I wouldn't say incredibly low, if he can continue this level of play at 19, that's actually better at that age in the KHL than Shesterkin or Sorokin. That doesn't guarantee he'll end up as good as them, but it means he has a good chance of doing so.

But goalies are volatile, which is why a smart team is constantly adding to their goalie stable.
Flyers took Bjarnason in the 2nd rd (who is playing very well this season) and jumped on Zavragin when he was still on the board, even though they had Ersson and Kolosov.

I expect them to draft 1 or 2 more goalies in the middle rounds the next couple drafts for that reason.

Saying he's been great at the KHL for his age is one thing, that's not what anyone is taking issue with. It's your implicit assumption that because of how well he is doing at this age, you can compare him to possibly the best goalie in the world right now. That is a HUGE stretch, and is betting on something like a 98 or 99th percentile outcome of scenarios for how Zavragin develops.

So yes, the chances Zavragin becomes as good as the best goalie in the world are incredibly low. I'm comfortable saying that has a lower chance of occuring than does the Flyers winning the draft lottery, and you are on record saying you think counting on winning the draft lottery is a fool's errand because of how unlikely it is.

 

[Appleyard]

Ask @Appleyard how rare it is for a 19 year old goalie to be among the league leaders, much less even starting in the KHL.

If he keeps it up, Zavragin is in a very select group, the goalie equivalent of Michkov.

Extremely rare. But not as rare as Michkov as that is like a 2x occurrence in 30 years... while Zavragin is a ~4-5x occurrence in same timespan.

In the KHL's almost 20 year history only 7 goalies (Sorokin, Vasilevsky, Samsonov, Ivanov, Kolosov, Denisov and Alistratov) before Zavragin started 20+ games in a season as a "split starter"... let alone be a "Proper" starter.

Of those 7? Samsonov (.936, .925) Vasilevsky (.923) and Ivanov (.930) were the only 3 with above average sv% vs league. Sorokin was solid at .911 and .910 in his 2 years as a starter as a teenager... but both below league average.

Only Ivanov last year and Alistratov back 15 years ago played 30+ games and were a clear starter... Alistratov was basically the worst starter in the league... Ivanov was on a very good defensive team last year and, well, started year with Zavragin on Sochi this season and was outplayed by him!

If go back to old RSL years? And look since the year 1996? You add Bobrovsky and Varmalov to the list as the only other 2 guys who played 20+ games as a teenager. Bob posted .904 and Varlamov .909 and .920.

So the only goalies with a respectable (.900 or better) sv% in 20+ games as a teenager in the last ~30 years? (Denisov and Alistratov both amongst worst in league)

Varmalov (.909, .920)
Bobrovsky (.904)
Vasilevsky (.923)
Samsonov (.925, .936)
Sorokin (.910, .911)
Kolosov (.906)
Ivanov (.930)

with Zavragin set to join them in 5 games.

 

[deadhead]

Extremely rare. But not as rare as Michkov as that is like a 2x occurrence in 30 years... while Zavragin is a ~4-5x occurrence in same timespan.

In the KHL's almost 20 year history only 7 goalies (Sorokin, Vasilevsky, Samsonov, Ivanov, Kolosov, Denisov and Alistratov) before Zavragin started 20+ games in a season as a "split starter"... let alone be a "Proper" starter.

Of those 7? Samsonov (.936, .925) Vasilevsky (.923) and Ivanov (.930) were the only 3 with above average sv% vs league. Sorokin was solid at .911 and .910 in his 2 years as a starter as a teenager... but both below league average.

Only Ivanov last year and Alistratov back 15 years ago played 30+ games and were a clear starter... Alistratov was basically the worst starter in the league... Ivanov was on a very good defensive team last year and, well, started year with Zavragin on Sochi this season and was outplayed by him!

If go back to old RSL years? And look since the year 1996? You add Bobrovsky and Varmalov to the list as the only other 2 guys who played 20+ games as a teenager. Bob posted .904 and Varlamov .909 and .920.

So the only goalies with a respectable (.900 or better) sv% in 20+ games as a teenager in the last ~30 years? (Denisov and Alistratov both amongst worst in league)

Varmalov (.909, .920)
Bobrovsky (.904)
Vasilevsky (.923)
Samsonov (.925, .936)
Sorokin (.910, .911)
Kolosov (.906)
Ivanov (.930)

with Zavragin set to join them in 5 games.

So if Zavragin finishes the year with a .920 Sv % he's in rarified air. Even .910 would be special.