GDT: #12 | Bruins vs Flyers | Saturday, November 2, 2024 | 1:00 PM | NBCSP, 97.5 FM

[deadhead]

Also, I do not believe 24,25,26 should be considered inexperienced in today's NHL. Most teams who develop younger player right get them going at 21,22,23 (and not at 6 min a night) so by 25 ish they should know what to do....

Very few players start at 21 or younger, mostly top picks. This tends to skew perceptions since these are the most notable players.

Most players who are going to start win jobs by 22-23 but don't get to 200 games until 25-26.
This is why prospects lists are generally limited to players 23 and under.

There are a few outliers who make it later, generally 3 year college players who come out at 22-23 years old and need a year or two in the AHL.

Even the high picks who are elite scorers often take a few years to hit their peak, and later picks tend to start later and emerge later.

1st year starting/peak years - leading scorers
top 10 picks:
MacKinnon (18)/(22)
McDavid (19)/(20)
Panarin (24)/(24)
Matthews (18)/(24)
Draisaitl (20)/(23)
Rantanen (20)/(26)
Nylander (20)/(25)
Crosby (18)/(19)
Pettersson (20)/(24)
M Tkachuk (19)/(24)
Marner (19)/(21)
Stamkos (18)/(19)
Barkov (18)/(22)
J Hughes (18)/(21)
B Tkachuk (19)/(22)
Keller (19)/(23)
Raymond (19)/(21)
Scheifele (20)/(23)
Zibanejad (20)/(25)

Other:
Pastrnak (18)/(21)
Miller (22)/(28)
Kaprizov (23)/(24)
Forsberg (20)/(27)
Reinhart (20)/(26)
Point (20)/(22)
Aho (19)/(21)
Thomas (19)/(22)
Bratt (19)/(23)
Barzal (20)/(20)
Robertson (21)/(22)
Hyman (24)/(30)
Suzuki (20)/(22)
Trocheck (22)/(23)
Hagel (23)/(25)
Kadri (22)/(31)
Kempe (21)/(26)
Kreider (22)/(27)
Nyquist (24)/(29)
Boeser (20)/(26)
Fiala (20)/(25)
Verhaeghe (25)/(26)
Kopitar (19)/(23)


Q Hughes (20)/(24)
Makar (21)/(23)
Josi (21)/(24)
Bouchard (22)/(24)
Hedman (19)/(23)
Fox (21)/(23)
Dobson (22)/(24)

 

[BiggE]

Very few players start at 21 or younger, mostly top picks. This tends to skew perceptions since these are the most notable players.

Most players who are going to start win jobs by 22-23 but don't get to 200 games until 25-26.
This is why prospects lists are generally limited to players 23 and under.

There are a few outliers who make it later, generally 3 year college players who come out at 22-23 years old and need a year or two in the AHL.

Even the high picks who are elite scorers often take a few years to hit their peak, and later picks tend to start later and emerge later.

1st year starting/peak years - leading scorers
top 10 picks:
MacKinnon (18)/(22)
McDavid (19)/(20)
Panarin (24)/(24)
Matthews (18)/(24)
Draisaitl (20)/(23)
Rantanen (20)/(26)
Nylander (20)/(25)
Crosby (18)/(19)
Pettersson (20)/(24)
M Tkachuk (19)/(24)
Marner (19)/(21)
Stamkos (18)/(19)
Barkov (18)/(22)
J Hughes (18)/(21)
B Tkachuk (19)/(22)
Keller (19)/(23)
Raymond (19)/(21)
Scheifele (20)/(23)
Zibanejad (20)/(25)

Other:
Pastrnak (18)/(21)
Miller (22)/(28)
Kaprizov (23)/(24)
Forsberg (20)/(27)
Reinhart (20)/(26)
Point (20)/(22)
Aho (19)/(21)
Thomas (19)/(22)
Bratt (19)/(23)
Barzal (20)/(20)
Robertson (21)/(22)
Hyman (24)/(30)
Suzuki (20)/(22)
Trocheck (22)/(23)
Hagel (23)/(25)
Kadri (22)/(31)
Kempe (21)/(26)
Kreider (22)/(27)
Nyquist (24)/(29)
Boeser (20)/(26)
Fiala (20)/(25)
Verhaeghe (25)/(26)
Kopitar (19)/(23)


Q Hughes (20)/(24)
Makar (21)/(23)
Josi (21)/(24)
Bouchard (22)/(24)
Hedman (19)/(23)
Fox (21)/(23)
Dobson (22)/(24)

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Also michkov looked like he’s playing it safe with lots of dump ins and flipping out of the dzone. He looked like a grinder this game. Only flashing skill in the ozone. Wonder if that’s the coaching.

not one person here could have called this..

 

[deadhead]

Also michkov looked like he’s playing it safe with lots of dump ins and flipping out of the dzone. He looked like a grinder this game. Only flashing skill in the ozone. Wonder if that’s the coaching.

Michkov needs to play it safe outside the O-zone. He's easily knocked off the puck, is obviously not used to the smaller windows and physical play in the NHL. He also cherry picks too much, and waits for his linemates to win puck battles for him. What he could get away with in the KHL doesn't always work in the NHL

This is not a surprise, there's a mental adjustment and a physical adjustment.
Notice how much better he is on the PP with time and space to work.
He probably won't become a 100+ point player until he's 22 or so, or 2027-28.

Players like Panarin and Kaprizov came over at 23/24 and were physically mature and far more experienced.

Kucherov is probably a good parallel:
(20) 52g 6-8 14 ES ATOI 13:07
(21) 82g 27-23 50 ES ATOI 14:57
(22) 77g 21-20 41 ES ATOI 18:13 [regular on PP1]
(23) 74g 23-30 53 ES ATOI 19:26
(24) 80g 31-33 64 ES ATOI 19:49 reached 100 points.

 

[bennysflyers16]

They need to cut bait on a lot of guys before their value sinks any further. A perfect example is Drysdale. As bad as he’s been there will be a team out there who will part with a 2nd for him. Guys like Poehling, Laughton, Cates & Hathaway still have some value and all should be on the block right now. Same goes for Seeler. Stockpile as many picks as possible and enjoy drafting in the top 5 this year and next. This is how you rebuild and turn an organization around.

But sadly, this is the Flyers, the culture warriors of the NHL. I fully expect Frost to be dealt for a 3rd round pick and a four year extension for Laughton this summer.

If you trade all those culture vets we will end up being a bottom of the league team , wait nvm.

 

[Adtar02]

Michkov needs to play it safe outside the O-zone. He's easily knocked off the puck, is obviously not used to the smaller windows and physical play in the NHL. He also cherry picks too much, and waits for his linemates to win puck battles for him. What he could get away with in the KHL doesn't always work in the NHL

This is not a surprise, there's a mental adjustment and a physical adjustment.
Notice how much better he is on the PP with time and space to work.
He probably won't become a 100+ point player until he's 22 or so, or 2027-28.

Players like Panarin and Kaprizov came over at 23/24 and were physically mature and far more experienced.

Kucherov is probably a good parallel:
(20) 52g 6-8 14 ES ATOI 13:07
(21) 82g 27-23 50 ES ATOI 14:57
(22) 77g 21-20 41 ES ATOI 18:13 [regular on PP1]
(23) 74g 23-30 53 ES ATOI 19:26
(24) 80g 31-33 64 ES ATOI 19:49 reached 100 points.

He does not need to play safe. He needs to play smart. He looked great early because he was playing to his strengths. His iq. Now he’s not using it to be in the right spots like he was.

 

[FlyerNutter]

Michkov doesn’t need to corral his NHL game.

That’s typical Philadelphia Flyer bullshit. Stay aggressive. Take the chances. Make the mistakes, and learn to execute those creative plays.

A normal development plan, instead of not even attempting shit.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

 

[BiggE]

Michkov doesn’t need to corral his NHL game.

That’s typical Philadelphia Flyer bullshit. Stay aggressive. Take the chances. Make the mistakes, and learn to execute those creative plays.

A normal development plan, instead of not even attempting shit.

Torts would have benched a young Wayne Gretzky for not blocking shots.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

View attachment 925763

peak Flyers to have that sign and then not do any of it..

 

[deadhead]

Michkov doesn’t need to corral his NHL game.

That’s typical Philadelphia Flyer bullshit. Stay aggressive. Take the chances. Make the mistakes, and learn to execute those creative plays.

A normal development plan, instead of not even attempting shit.

It's one thing to take chances in the O-zone, where the benefit should outweigh the cost.
It's quite another to take chances in the neutral zone and D-zone where the reward is less and the risk is higher.
You want Michkov to be aggressive, you don't want him to be stupid.

To play smart hockey, he needs time to understand what he can get away with at this level and when he shouldn't force things. That comes with experience.

I'd point out that TB, a first class organization, brought Kucherov along much slower than Torts is doing with Michkov.
Right now he's playing 18:10 and 14:25 at ES, 2nd to only TK.
And you can see the impact on him. He's not as explosive as he was starting the season.
So Torts should sit him a game here and there, and have him skip some shifts.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I don't know how you could have blind faith in Drysdale magically becoming a valuable contributor based on what he has shown at the NHL level. Being poor defensively is one thing, but he doesn't even really create anything at the other end either. Where is he giving you plus value?

 

[Flyerfan4life]

I don't know how you could have blind faith in Drysdale magically becoming a valuable contributor based on what he has shown at the NHL level. Being poor defensively is one thing, but he doesn't even really create anything at the other end either. Where is he giving you plus value?

just another in the list of broken toy trades for the Flyers..

nothing new here sadly...

 

[FlyerNutter]

It's one thing to take chances in the O-zone, where the benefit should outweigh the cost.
It's quite another to take chances in the neutral zone and D-zone where the reward is less and the risk is higher.
You want Michkov to be aggressive, you don't want him to be stupid.

To play smart hockey, he needs time to understand what he can get away with at this level and when he shouldn't force things. That comes with experience.

I'd point out that TB, a first class organization, brought Kucherov along much slower than Torts is doing with Michkov.
Right now he's playing 18:10 and 14:25 at ES, 2nd to only TK.
And you can see the impact on him. He's not as explosive as he was starting the season.
So Torts should sit him a game here and there, and have him skip some shifts.

The Flyers have barely developed Claude Giroux, Konecny, Couturier, and Sanheim in what 20 years?

Nahh. They don’t know shit about properly cultivating talent.

 

[BiggE]

The Flyers have barely developed Claude Giroux, Konecny, Couturier, and Sanheim in what 20 years?

Nahh. They don’t know shit about properly cultivating talent.

And lets look at those 4
Giroux: thankfully Giroux got to start his career under first, John Stevens, whose best skill was that he worked well with young players and next with Lavi who coached an aggressive uptempo style that was very conducive to skilled players

Couts: give Couts credit, both Lavi and Berube saw him as a checking center. Luckily, he was able to use his innate intelligence and hockey sense to prove that he was more than just a checker once he got a chance to play with more skilled players and on the pp

Konecny and Sanheim were both, especially Sanheim, badly coached in their developmental years. Hell, this dipshit organization actually favored Robert f’n Hagg over Sanheim for years and still, after all this time, he’s an afterthought when it comes to the pp.

The Flyers organization deserves nothing but scorn. They can take their room, culture and Gritty dolls and f*** off.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

Drysdale has sucked but so has everyone else. I’d get a new coach in soon to see if anything can be salvaged. If Drysdale continues to suck just cut bait when his contract is up and don’t make him a sunk cost. If Tippett continues to be a 20-30 goal guy, he’ll be moveable as the cap increases. I probably wouldn’t have signed TK but it’s good to have Michkov playing with at least one legit skilled first liner. Frost is probably what he is. I’d see if either him or Poehling could be moved for a 2nd, or better from a desperate GM. Keep York and Sanheim, the latter can’t be moved anyway unless he wants it. Farabee would be a pretty good trade chip. I’d dangle him and see what offers are out there. Ride out Risto’s and Couts’ contract. They won’t be competing anytime soon anyway. See if you can get a 2nd or better for Laughton and Seeler

The Flyers are actually on the precipice of being a terrible team unlike the mediocrity of the 2010’s and 2020’s. The hope would be that the bulk of the core of the future team isn’t in the organization yet. It will be better to be legitimately bad for a few years and drafting in the top 5 instead of 10-15. Unironically I think the future is much brighter than it’s ever been because we are actually terrible. Barring a sudden reversal we’ll be a cellar dweller for a few years with very high draft picks. The bad news is it will take time as there doesn’t seem to be much on the roster today that we can count on in the future. Part of me doesn’t want Torts to be fired because of the chance of a new coach burst. Just have to weather the storm.

 

[kudymen]

Flyers drafting Kaprizov would have Makar and Reinhart leading the NHL in points nice and clean today

 

[deadhead]

The Flyers are actually on the precipice of being a terrible team unlike the mediocrity of the 2010’s and 2020’s.

A slow start is not a season. We know from last season they can play much better.

This team isn't close to being terrible, once it settles in it'll be mediocre. But the difference between the last decade will be that they're a very young mediocre team, not one patched up with a few prospects and a core of aging veterans.

Michkov will be special, but it'll take 3-4 years.
Tippett, TK and Farabee are proven scorers, b/c they've done it over multiple seasons.
Same with Sanheim.

Players like Frost, Cates are more iffy, they're solid in the right roles but they're not going to be key players going forward (at 25, they're pretty much what they are).

Players like York, Foerster, Brink, Ersson are young enough to have upside left.
Players like Drysdale, Andrae, Kolosov are still unknowns.

The veterans are irrelevant, few have serious (top 40) trade value.
Only Couts and Laughton (by default) are top 9 forwards. Hathaway 4th line.
Seeler (top 4 by default) and Risto.
Delo and Johnson are bench bodies.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

A slow start is not a season. We know from last season they can play much better.

This team isn't close to being terrible, once it settles in it'll be mediocre. But the difference between the last decade will be that they're a very young mediocre team, not one patched up with a few prospects and a core of aging veterans.

Michkov will be special, but it'll take 3-4 years.
Tippett, TK and Farabee are proven scorers, b/c they've done it over multiple seasons.
Same with Sanheim.

Players like Frost, Cates are more iffy, they're solid in the right roles but they're not going to be key players going forward (at 25, they're pretty much what they are).

Players like York, Foerster, Brink, Ersson are young enough to have upside left.
Players like Drysdale, Andrae, Kolosov are still unknowns.

The veterans are irrelevant, few have serious (top 40) trade value.
Only Couts and Laughton (by default) are top 9 forwards. Hathaway 4th line.
Seeler (top 4 by default) and Risto.
Delo and Johnson are bench bodies.

Their good players are 2nd liners mostly. Farabee is 24 and has a career high 50 points. Maybe he has another level he can reach but he isn’t going to move the needle much. Tippett is in a similar boat. Frost has never hit 50 points. Those guys are fine as depth but if they are counted heavily on it’s a bad team.

I’ve said before but I think the killer is the center position and defense. Couts has played in the NHL for 15 years and just got back from a major surgery. He very well might be done, outside of a good game here and there. The 2nd half of last year and the start of this year seems to show that. Frost and Poehling are depth centermen. A defense that counts heavily on such names as Seeler, EJ, Risto, Zamula, Andrae, and Drysdale isn’t going to be very good. There is still time for Drysdale, Andrae, and Zamula but I’m not counting on them being a big piece of a good team. The goaltending might be a problem too but the guys are still young and new. All this adds up to a bad team. Every once in a while they’ll pop off or play a boring game and smother mediocre to bad teams but there will be lots of losses

 

[kp61c]

Michkov needs to play it safe outside the O-zone. He's easily knocked off the puck, is obviously not used to the smaller windows and physical play in the NHL. He also cherry picks too much, and waits for his linemates to win puck battles for him. What he could get away with in the KHL doesn't always work in the NHL

This is not a surprise, there's a mental adjustment and a physical adjustment.
Notice how much better he is on the PP with time and space to work.
He probably won't become a 100+ point player until he's 22 or so, or 2027-28.

Players like Panarin and Kaprizov came over at 23/24 and were physically mature and far more experienced.

Kucherov is probably a good parallel:
(20) 52g 6-8 14 ES ATOI 13:07
(21) 82g 27-23 50 ES ATOI 14:57
(22) 77g 21-20 41 ES ATOI 18:13 [regular on PP1]
(23) 74g 23-30 53 ES ATOI 19:26
(24) 80g 31-33 64 ES ATOI 19:49 reached 100 points.

looked exactly the same in the khl. didn't crack ska roster because of it and played basically for their farm team.

 

[Embiid]

Torts would have benched a young Wayne Gretzky for not blocking shots.

"You miss 100% of the blocks you don't make"

 

[pit]

Remember when statistically poor play but a winning record to start a season was evidence of a successful offseason, the team turning the corner and a team on the rise?

Now statistically wretched and a losing record is a slow start.

Good times.

 

[deadhead]

Their good players are 2nd liners mostly. Farabee is 24 and has a career high 50 points. Maybe he has another level he can reach but he isn’t going to move the needle much. Tippett is in a similar boat. Frost has never hit 50 points. Those guys are fine as depth but if they are counted heavily on it’s a bad team.

I’ve said before but I think the killer is the center position and defense. Couts has played in the NHL for 15 years and just got back from a major surgery. He very well might be done, outside of a good game here and there. The 2nd half of last year and the start of this year seems to show that. Frost and Poehling are depth centermen. A defense that counts heavily on such names as Seeler, EJ, Risto, Zamula, Andrae, and Drysdale isn’t going to be very good. There is still time for Drysdale, Andrae, and Zamula but I’m not counting on them being a big piece of a good team. The goaltending might be a problem too but the guys are still young and new. All this adds up to a bad team. Every once in a while they’ll pop off or play a boring game and smother mediocre to bad teams but there will be lots of losses

Which is why they drafted Luchanko and will draft at least one more center this summer.
Same on defense, they drafted Bonk and will draft at least one more D-man this summer.

But you don't need to add a half dozen top six forwards, two solid centers, pushing Frost down to 3C and Couts to LW would make the top 9 much better. Same on defense, add another D-man to pair with Bonk and Andrae, Drysdale, etc. become 3rd pair candidates.

They don't have to hit on every pick this summer, just land 2-3 top 6/top 4 guys and you can whiff or end up with bottom of the roster players with the other picks.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

Which is why they drafted Luchanko and will draft at least one more center this summer.
Same on defense, they drafted Bonk and will draft at least one more D-man this summer.

But you don't need to add a half dozen top six forwards, two solid centers, pushing Frost down to 3C and Couts to LW would make the top 9 much better. Same on defense, add another D-man to pair with Bonk and Andrae, Drysdale, etc. become 3rd pair candidates.

They don't have to hit on every pick this summer, just land 2-3 top 6/top 4 guys and you can whiff or end up with bottom of the roster players with the other picks.

So let’s say they draft a center with their pick this year. Next season Luchanko will be 19 and the 2025 draft pick will be 18. Unless their pick is Hagens, the draft pick probably isn’t on the team till he’s around 20. Same with Luchanko. And it will take the players a couple seasons at the minimum most likely till they can be top 6 centers. Let’s say that happens when they are 22, which is somewhat optimistic. That’s 4 years from this season. There is no players coming in to fix this mess right away. Until Luchanko, Bonk, the 2025 nhl draftees are in the NHL for a few seasons the Flyers will have no help coming and no one that can fill shoes adequately

 

[BernieParent]

"You miss 100% of the blocks you don't make"

"You block 100% of the prospects you don't play."