GDT: #12 | Bruins vs Flyers | Saturday, November 2, 2024 | 1:00 PM | NBCSP, 97.5 FM

[Gregor Samsa]

ummm this is year 3 of a 3 year rebuild... this is basicly the culture roster they wanted to build..

best #buckle in...

seeing CHI in the league basement you just know they gunna win the Hagens lotto to play alongside Bedard

Eh, I mean whether they want it to be a rebuild or not that’s kinda what it’s shaping into for the next few years. As long as they aren’t trading for or signing veteran players to be a big part of the team I’m fine with a few years of top 5 picks. At this point I’d trade whatever is possible but I’m not sure how much value can be gotten back. I’m content as long as they are picking high in the draft and not signing or trading for top 6 or top 4 players.

I was hoping for a bunch of players improving this year and showing they could be part of the future but so far it’s been the opposite. I’d still get a new coach in there to see how some of these players look in a different system. The center position is dire enough that it probably won’t be fixed for 3-4 years at the minimum, and same with the defense to a slightly lesser extent. During that time they’ll be a bottom feeder

 

[deadhead]

There's no significance to 25 and Under no matter how many listicles they write about it. Same goes for average age.

When your core will be in its prime is your relevant team age.

Generally, the prime for most athletes is 25-30.
Top players are more 23-32, elite players 20-35.

So when "rebuilding," you want a core of players who are between 23-28 (so 20-25 at this point of a rebuild) when you start winning, b/c they'll still be in their prime years for 4-5 years, providing time to develop replacements and keep going.

This applies more to hockey and baseball, football teams are more on 3 year schedules with a handful of core players. NBA is all about the salary cap.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

They're not a good team, this is what rebuilding is all about, play a lot of inexperienced players and watch them struggle.

They'll get it together at some point, they're too talented to be this bad, but the goalies aren't good enough to carry them either.

At some point they'll start making plays, a few goals will go in, and they'll start scoring at a more normal rate. Frost isn't this bad, for example. Tippett makes a beautiful play, puck's on Frost's stick, doesn't get all of it but still goes through goalie's arm, hits his pad and bounces over the cross bar. When things aren't going well . . .

I still think they'll end up with 80-90 points. To get below 80, Ersson would have to be out for a few months.

Stop with the inexperienced BS. Simply not true overall.

they are not too talented. You overrate them 100%

People keep saying they're not rebuilding, then how come they're so young with a lineup full of 1st and 2d rd picks 25 and under?
Andrae (22) #54
Brink (23) #34
Drysdale (22) #6
Farabee (24) #14
Foerster (23) #23
Frost (25) #27
Michkov (20) #7
Tippett (25) #10
York (23) #14
6 of your top 9 forwards, 3 of your 6 D-men.
Along with Ersson (25), Kolosov (23), Cates (25), Zamula (24)
And you wonder why this team is inconsistent?

Bonk (19) #23
Luchanko (18) #13
Berglund (18) #51
Tuomaala (21) #46
Gill (18) #59
Bjarnason (19) #51
along with Zavragin (19), Ciernak (20), Barkey (19), Ruohonen (18), Knuble (20), Bump (21), Sotheran (19), Avon (21). McDonald (22).

3 1sts, 3 2nds in the 2025 draft.

Doesn't mean it'll work out.
Briere has to find a couple top 6/top 4 types in the 2025 draft.
And it would help if 1 or 2 of the "lesser" prospects surprise, the way Zavragin has so far.

Now look at their NHL experience. That paints a diff picture, no?

 

[edbr3ak]

The attendance at this game wouldn’t have filled the entire lower bowl and ~1/3 of it was bruins fans.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Generally, the prime for most athletes is 25-30.
Top players are more 23-32, elite players 20-35.

No.

 

[deadhead]

No.

Age curves. You got one that's different?
Speed peaks in your early 20s, strength in your late 20s. Performance peaks in mid to late 20s.

Allen & Hopkin - Age of Peak Competitive Performance of Elite Athletes- A Systematic Review - Sports Medicine 2015
Brander, Ega & Yeung - Estimating the Effects of Age on NHL Player Performance - J Quantitative Analysis in Sports (10) 2014

 

[BillDineen]

Drysdale single handedly ruined all the PPs.

Drysdale had his way shifts away from Seeler.

Tippett is the one driving me nuts on the pp. Either wide and out or a meh shot.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

What would the reaction here be if the Flyers traded their 1st round pick? Lol

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Age curves. You got one that's different?
Speed peaks in your early 20s, strength in your late 20s. Performance peaks in mid to late 20s.

Allen & Hopkin - Age of Peak Competitive Performance of Elite Athletes- A Systematic Review - Sports Medicine 2015
Brander, Ega & Yeung - Estimating the Effects of Age on NHL Player Performance - J Quantitative Analysis in Sports (10) 2014

That BE&Y study was very good for its time, but it uses data from 1997-2012. That's a markedly different game and career arc.

Every time this gets studied, the answer gets younger.

Schuckers, Lopez, & McDonald 2021: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2110.14017

MBMC 2022: Age and Decay

 

[zizbuka]

They're not a good team, this is what rebuilding is all about, play a lot of inexperienced players and watch them struggle.

They'll get it together at some point, they're too talented to be this bad, but the goalies aren't good enough to carry them either.

So you're saying that during a rebuild, coaching the young guys is very important? I agree, Torts is not the right coach for a rebuild.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Eh, I mean whether they want it to be a rebuild or not that’s kinda what it’s shaping into for the next few years. As long as they aren’t trading for or signing veteran players to be a big part of the team I’m fine with a few years of top 5 picks. At this point I’d trade whatever is possible but I’m not sure how much value can be gotten back. I’m content as long as they are picking high in the draft and not signing or trading for top 6 or top 4 players.

I was hoping for a bunch of players improving this year and showing they could be part of the future but so far it’s been the opposite. I’d still get a new coach in there to see how some of these players look in a different system. The center position is dire enough that it probably won’t be fixed for 3-4 years at the minimum, and same with the defense to a slightly lesser extent. During that time they’ll be a bottom feeder

i dont think you got it..

they are FINISHING year 3... this "rebuild" is essentialy complete..

 

[FLYguy3911]

I literally LOL'd when JJ was stunned to find out the Flyers were underdogs today.

I guess they are going to try to win every game 1-0.

At least they were entertaining for a chunk of last year.

 

[deadhead]

That BE&Y study was very good for its time, but it uses data from 1997-2012. That's a markedly different game and career arc.

Every time this gets studied, the answer gets younger.

Schuckers, Lopez, & McDonald 2021: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2110.14017

MBMC 2022: Age and Decay

The first article pretty much agrees - whether you call the peak 26 or 27 .

I'm skeptical of McCurdy, simply doesn't correspond to what we see.

Now one problem is I don't see these articles focus on the relevant subset, the top group of scorers.
There's a subset of players who have a peak season or two early, but really aren't that good - but in a large population of mediocre players, there will be a few that perform above their "norm" then regress. And because this population peaks at a young age, so will these "outliers."

If McCurdy's model were correct then a list of top scorers any season should be dominate by 23-26 year olds. Instead, a quick glance suggests 26-28 as the peak age, with 24 as the low end and 30 at the high. Hughes is the only under 24 scorer in the top 40.
last year
Kucherov (30)
MacKinnon (28)
David (27)
Panarin (32)
Pastrnak (27)
Matthews (26)
Draistail (28)
Rantanen (26)
Miller (30)
Nylander (27)
Kaprizov (26)
Under 26
#15 Hughes (24)
#16 Makar (25)
#19 Pettersson (25)
#21 Thomas (24)
#25 Bouchard (24)
#29 Robertson (24)
#31 Suzuki (24)
#34 Keller (25)
#35 Hegal (25)
#40 J Hughes (22)

This is a crude check, but still raises eyebrows.

 

[Curufinwe]

Torts has squeezed the life out of this group.

 

[FanForLife]

Tortarella is a horrible coach who seems to lack any vision of what works offensively...or just doesn't care. IMHO, biggest problem right now... and will be going forward. Simply has to go. And as far as all the draft picks....awesome, but I have little faith they'll be used correctly. Always a bit of a crapshoot drafting 18 year old kids, but I feel this organization is lost.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

I literally LOL'd when JJ was stunned to find out the Flyers were underdogs today.

I guess they are going to try to win every game 1-0.

At least they were entertaining for a chunk of last year.

i told ya... they literaly think this roster is the one to complete their rebuild with..

they got MM! thats enuf skill... the rest of the roster can be low skill grinders and try hards.

the cup is surely won by playing honest hockey

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

Torts has squeezed the life out of this group.

But as we've seen, it's given life to the higher ups apparently. So Torts is probably staying.

They will use Ersson's injury as an excuse to keep him around.

 

[trostol]

So serious question..didn't Bee and Foerster like bulk up some in the off-season..could that be why they are sucking so far

 

[Gregor Samsa]

i dont think you got it..

they are FINISHING year 3... this "rebuild" is essentialy complete..

They can say whatever it is they want but that’s clearly not true. There is a good chance we are entering the dark ages now. A few years ago, when we still sucked, we had Couts and hope for Frost. Now that Couts is cooked we are barren down the middle and don’t have many good defensemen. It’s never fun and easy to watch a bottom dweller but this is what the team needs. Mediocrity is purgatory. The good thing is if Briere completely sucks we are still there at the bottom. It looks like we’ll just need patience at this point. We won’t be potentially good till the 2023, 2024, 2025, and maybe 2026 draftees are on the team no matter what the upper brass says

 

[JojoTheWhale]

The first article pretty much agrees - whether you call the peak 26 or 27 .

I'm skeptical of McCurdy, simply doesn't correspond to what we see.

Now one problem is I don't see these articles focus on the relevant subset, the top group of scorers.
There's a subset of players who have a peak season or two early, but really aren't that good - but in a large population of mediocre players, there will be a few that perform above their "norm" then regress. And because this population peaks at a young age, so will these "outliers."

If McCurdy's model were correct then a list of top scorers any season should be dominate by 23-26 year olds. Instead, a quick glance suggests 26-28 as the peak age, with 24 as the low end and 30 at the high. Hughes is the only under 24 scorer in the top 40.
last year
Kucherov (30)
MacKinnon (28)
David (27)
Panarin (32)
Pastrnak (27)
Matthews (26)
Draistail (28)
Rantanen (26)
Miller (30)
Nylander (27)
Kaprizov (26)
Under 26
#15 Hughes (24)
#16 Makar (25)
#19 Pettersson (25)
#21 Thomas (24)
#25 Bouchard (24)
#29 Robertson (24)
#31 Suzuki (24)
#34 Keller (25)
#35 Hegal (25)
#40 J Hughes (22)

This is a crude check, but still raises eyebrows.

Leaguewide sampling and looking at just the top players could easily be different. Feels completely normal to me. Hell, you started this by drawing a line between those things. I’m not sure why you now don’t believe it.

 

[deadhead]

Leaguewide sampling and looking at just the top players should be different. Feels completely normal to me. Hell, you started this by drawing a line between those things. I’m not sure why you now don’t believe it.

Because scorers are treated differently in terms of role and PT, you really need subsamples to do a meaning statistical analysis. If you lump all players together you face left out variable error.

I had enough econometrics in my day not to trust statistical analyses, not that I ignore them, but I've got dozens of articles on how to screw up, or in many cases "cheat."

Trust but verify, and robustness is more important than statistical significance.

 

[Curufinwe]

The 2020s will probably be the Flyers lost decade.

 

[BernieParent]

Torts basically admitting what i was afraid of which is theyre clamping down on defense out of expense of the offense.

I cant stand that. Id rathet lose 7-6 than 1-0.

I'd swear I remember Tortorella saying it was okay for the young players to take chances. Huh, guess I imagined it.

Maybe I missed it. But I think Fredrick hitting TK in the head with his glove on was a bitch move?

Konecny popped him first with a gloved fist.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Looks like a missed a snore fest?

 

[deadhead]

They can say whatever it is they want but that’s clearly not true. There is a good chance we are entering the dark ages now. A few years ago, when we still sucked, we had Couts and hope for Frost. Now that Couts is cooked we are barren down the middle and don’t have many good defensemen. It’s never fun and easy to watch a bottom dweller but this is what the team needs. Mediocrity is purgatory. The good thing is if Briere completely sucks we are still there at the bottom. It looks like we’ll just need patience at this point. We won’t be potentially good till the 2023, 2024, 2025, and maybe 2026 draftees are on the team no matter what the upper brass says

They never said it's a 3 year rebuild, that's some crap people on this board invented.

For one thing, if you trade back into the 2025 draft, you're pretty much saying you're rebuilding into 2027-28, because those 6 picks won't be in the NHL until 2027 or 2028 and won't be major contributors until 2029 or 2030 when they're 22-23 years old.

The only questionable move was the TK extension, but given the lack of firepower, and TK being the only true 1st line wing (until Michkov grows up), it would have been hard to let him walk.

Seeler, Hathaway, much ado about nothing. More value as veteran depth than they'd bring in trade (if someone offers a 2nd . . . but late 3rds or worse have limited value). We're seeing what happens when kids struggle together, sometimes you need a few veterans to hold their hands.

I think Laughton's bounce back season makes him a prime TDL candidate, and if Risto continues to play well (especially in 1st pair role with York out), he may have a market as well.