Prospect Info: 10th overall: Vancouver selects Vasili Podkolzin (RW, SKA St. Petersburg)

[CanaFan]

The videos I reference in my initial post are scouting reports, clips of his play and actual games. I've seen him play. In that sense, my take is not based upon one scouting report.

Granted, I do regard the Scouching report as the best one to date. It delves into the numbers that somewhat explain Podkolzin's lack of production. No other report does this. In that sense, it is definitely the minority. It's the only.

On Hockey IQ: I want to define what "conclusion regarding IQ is not widely held"? What rationale have other reports provided for his lack of production?

Have you checked the Dobber scouting piece I linked above? It gives some possible factors.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Have you checked the Dobber scouting piece I linked above? It gives some possible factors.

Yes, I have read this article before. I also recognize the Andy Lehoux video at the end of the article (I posted it in this thread earlier).

I can see the rationale for the lower MHL production. If Podkolzin only played against higher end teams and was not allowed to pad his stats against the worst teams, this somewhat explains the overall total. Still, I think the author goes a step too far by rationalizing it as a league adjustment. If Podkolzin is a future 1st line talent, he should have powered through it from the start.

Overall, his MHL production is not far enough away from what Kravtsov did in his draft year to set off alarm bells. 8 points in 12 games vs 7 points in 9 games. I do think the splits are curious though: 6 goals and 2 assists.

The VHL play is the larger concern. 5 points in 14 games. 8 in 22 when including the playoffs. Jokke Nevalainen (Author) makes it seem a bit better by dropping the games Pod played less than 10 minutes of ice. Yet, he keeps the 13 games where Pod played 12:40 of ice... Not sure why?

The VHL is considered just above Allsvenskan. It's a lower scoring league, yes, but even if you carried over a .5 PPG and treated the leagues as equal, you get a Jonathan Dahlen level draft year producer. It's decent-good, but is it great? I will have to look into the pGPS to find out.

 

[Icebreakers]

I have a feeling Podkolzins production is going to be average next year but hes going to score some really highlight goals and do well at the WJC.

 

[RandV]

I can actually remember when some posters on this board were wringing their hands about the Canucks picking Horvat ninth overall, while Valeri Nichushkin fell to the Stars at #10.

Now they could get him for nothing because Dallas is buying him out. You just never know with Russian players.

I don't feel like it's quite the same. There's a certain breed of flashy Russian wingers where at the NHL level either they have the talent to be a star like an Ovechkin or Kovalchuk or they bust. Guys with immense skills who like to take the puck and do everything themselves, looks damn impressive at the world juniors but at a level where the opposition can shut them down they become pretty useless. See: Nichuskin, Yakupov, etc etc. Occasionally you get a guy in this category like Alex Radulov who can settle in as merely a decent top six player, but generally with the Russian's it's boom or bust.

Podkolzin has his own flaws that could hold him back but apart from nationality I don't think he falls into the same category here?

 

[CanaFan]

Yes, I have read this article before. I also recognize the Andy Lehoux video at the end of the article (I posted it in this thread earlier).

I can see rationale for the lower MHL production. If Podkolzin only played against higher end teams and was not allowed to pad his stats against the worst teams, this somewhat explains the overall total. Still, I think the author goes a step too far by rationalizing it as a league adjustment. If Podkolzin is a future 1st line talent, he should have powered through it from the start.

Overall, his MHL production is not far enough away from what Kravtsov did in his draft year to set off alarm bells. 8 points in 12 games vs 7 points in 9 games. I do think the splits are curious though: 6 goals and 2 assists.

The VHL play is the larger concern. 5 points in 14 games. 8 in 22 when including the playoffs. Jokke Nevalainen (Author) makes it seem a bit better by dropping the games Pod played less than 10 minutes of ice. Yet, he keeps the 13 games where Pod played 12:40 of ice... Not sure why?

The VHL is considered just above Allsvenskan. It's a lower scoring league, yes, but even if you carried over a .5 PPG and treated the leagues as equal, you get a Jonathan Dahlen level draft year producer. It's decent-good, but is it great? I will have to look into the pGPS to find out.

For me it is just hard to interpret given my general unfamiliarity with the scoring rates of those leagues, the quality of teams he faced, his role and ice time, and general bouncing around between leagues and tournaments.

I can’t say it completely assuages the production concerns, but it provides a possible mitigating factor. On the flip side you have his Hlinka tournament and 5 Nations where he scored at excellent levels and WJC where he did well to make a very senior Russian team at age 17.

I have my own concerns about the pick but i don’t know that they are going to be answered by dissecting his past season. He’ll have to demonstrate scoring next season commensurate with his “top upside” for those optimistic projections to hold.

 

[Siludin]

I have a feeling Podkolzins production is going to be average next year but hes going to score some really highlight goals and do well at the WJC.

KHL production by young players is rarely outstanding, mostly due to team ageism and clubs not wanting to give too much playing time to players they know will soon bolt for the NHL. Podkolzin shouldn't play more than one more year overseas imo. I know there are contractual constraints but if there are opportunities to get out, he should consider it.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

I have a feeling Podkolzins production is going to be average next year but hes going to score some really highlight goals and do well at the WJC.

Which is completely normal for young players.
Ovechikin only scored 18 goals in his draft year, and that was considered to be generational

 

[thefeebster]

Overall, his MHL production is not far enough away from what Kravtsov did in his draft year to set off alarm bells. 8 points in 12 games vs 7 points in 9 games. I do think the splits are curious though: 6 goals and 2 assists.

The VHL play is the larger concern. 5 points in 14 games. 8 in 22 when including the playoffs. Jokke Nevalainen (Author) makes it seem a bit better by dropping the games Pod played less than 10 minutes of ice. Yet, he keeps the 13 games where Pod played 12:40 of ice... Not sure why?

The VHL is considered just above Allsvenskan. It's a lower scoring league, yes, but even if you carried over a .5 PPG and treated the leagues as equal, you get a Jonathan Dahlen level draft year producer. It's decent-good, but is it great? I will have to look into the pGPS to find out.

Their MHL production is very drastic. Kravtsov dominated the MHL in his very small sample size, same ice time in reg season but Kravtsov played 19 min in the playoffs vs Pod's 13. I believe you misread the stats for that part. Statistically, i don't think there is really any good comparable, but i think Denisenko is the closest, based on leagues played and age.

	Podkolzin	Kravtsov	Denisenko	Tarasenko	Kuznetsov
Draft Year Age at start of season	17.26	17.77	17.26	17.79	17.36
KHL Reg Season	0	0.20	DNP	0.57	0.23
KHL Playoffs	DNP	0.69	0.00	DNP	0.25
VHL Reg Season	0.36	0.78	DNP	DNP	DNP
VHL Playoffs	0.38	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
MHL Reg Season	0.67	3.00	0.71	1.00	1.78
MHL Playoffs	1.00	2.00	0.58	DNP	1.50

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Anyways, i don't hate this player, but taking a balanced approach. Just completed his WJC video, if anyone is interested.

 

[Grantham]

Awesome video Feebs. Really shows the style of game he plays in a nutshell. I like the fact that you got the comments and input from Ray Ferraro who I respect I lot as he tells it like it is.

I really hate doing player comparisons, but I’ll do one anyways. Reminds me a bit of Radulov. Same grit and toughness combined with skill. They both seem to thrive from contact and battles.

 

[biturbo19]

Even taking the "Russian Factor" out of it, which i think you can. He's going to come over and play in a couple years, for better or worse. Just seems like a big swing, on a guy who you kinda hope eventually becomes that Kesler-like outlier, but as a winger? I'd take that player every day easy, and sometimes these "types" have a habit of outperforming expectations markedly...but there was a lot of skill left on the board. And the whole "Russian factor" really comes into play if the guy comes over and doesn't immediately find great success. They always have that other out. Or if it goes the other way and they need to leverage a contract situation...they've got that too.


I hope Podkolzin ends up a good enough player to leverage things against the KHL though. Just not sure he's got the vision to be that real NHL star he was projected as at one point. He's got a lot of good tools though. I really hope he's like a Russian Kesler Winger type thing. That'd be perfect for what we seem to need right now.

 

[logan5]

Here's a good highlight package from the WJC that really shows how strong Podkolzin is. Some good commentary from Ray Ferraro as well.

It's hard to see this guy not making the NHL. If he's not a top 6 forward, he will make one hell of a 3rd line player. If this guy can combine that kind of strength with enough skill to be a 60 point man (or more), we've got a guy that wins you Stanley Cups.

 

[The Poacher]

Here's a good highlight package from the WJC that really shows how strong Podkolzin is. Some good commentary from Ray Ferraro as well.

It's hard to see this guy not making the NHL. If he's not a top 6 forward, he will make one hell of a 3rd line player. If this guy can combine that kind of strength with enough skill to be a 60 point man (or more), we've got a guy that wins you Stanley Cups.

^ Thx Feebs

 

[Fatass]

For me it is just hard to interpret given my general unfamiliarity with the scoring rates of those leagues, the quality of teams he faced, his role and ice time, and general bouncing around between leagues and tournaments.

I can’t say it completely assuages the production concerns, but it provides a possible mitigating factor. On the flip side you have his Hlinka tournament and 5 Nations where he scored at excellent levels and WJC where he did well to make a very senior Russian team at age 17.

I have my own concerns about the pick but i don’t know that they are going to be answered by dissecting his past season. He’ll have to demonstrate scoring next season commensurate with his “top upside” for those optimistic projections to hold.

Is it better for us to have Podkolzin coming in two years, or Tyson Barrie here now? Heard an interview with Barrie on 650 radio, and he said Friday, draft day, was the closest he’s been to being traded. He said he knew it was Vancouver, and then something went sideways, and things went quiet. (Then he got traded to the Leafs, which was surprising to him.).
I’m thinking it was Podkolzin being there at 10, that nixed the deal.
So, Podkolzin or Barrie?

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I dont think it is at all unreasonable to worry about his lack of production last year.

I feel like both Podkolzin and Höglander are picks that fell because of their lack of indicative stats; I wonder if Brackett has got some SHL / Russian predictive stats that show that their lack of scoring was more a product of puckluck and lack of talent on their line.

 

[Hansen]

Its really well noted in that video, and I noticed this every time I've seen him play, but the way that he shifts around the ice displays great IQ to me. He is constantly reading the play and adjusting how to position himself, both offensively and defensively, to best attack the puck carrier or break up plays. Its the sort of thing that Virtanen is beyond hopeless at and a huge reason why Jake is low IQ and will never be an impact player (though Jake's rush play is useful).

He's a smart player and does the things away from the puck that you want to see in a young high octane winger. You also notice a few high risk passes getting picked off, and I feel like its difficult to get the chemistry and understanding of systems to make those plays consistently done in tournaments. I like that he's trying some out of the box stuff but hopefully he makes it work better on the team he has more experience with

 

[TomWillander1RD]

Based on some posters' remarks, it sounded like we picked Jake Virtanen 2.0.

But after watching the highlights from WJC, he looks totally different from what JV was before he got drafted. JV had more impressive tools (speed, shot and probably better hitting) but Pod seems to have much better understanding of the game. He wouldn't have been my first option as I don't think he'll be a huge point producer but I'm confident he'll be a much better player than JV. The problem is whether he'll ever have a long career in the NHL.

 

[MS]

Its really well noted in that video, and I noticed this every time I've seen him play, but the way that he shifts around the ice displays great IQ to me. He is constantly reading the play and adjusting how to position himself, both offensively and defensively, to best attack the puck carrier or break up plays. Its the sort of thing that Virtanen is beyond hopeless at and a huge reason why Jake is low IQ and will never be an impact player (though Jake's rush play is useful).

He's a smart player and does the things away from the puck that you want to see in a young high octane winger. You also notice a few high risk passes getting picked off, and I feel like its difficult to get the chemistry and understanding of systems to make those plays consistently done in tournaments. I like that he's trying some out of the box stuff but hopefully he makes it work better on the team he has more experience with

Some players have a much higher positional defensive IQ than they do an offensive IQ/hockey sense with the puck on their stick. Brandon Sutter is the extreme example of this.

From my viewings which are limited to the U18s, he absolutely has a quality motor and understanding of defensive play that is miles beyond anything Virtanen had at the same age, and projects well in this regard moving up levels.

With the puck on his stick - not so much. To me he's a guy who tries to drive the play forward with his athleticism and doesn't have great vision of the ice or ability to use his linemates well. Again, I think a guy like Evander Kane has a very similar skillset/style offensively. That's still better than Virtanen, but I don't see huge offensive upside here at all.

 

[F A N]

Checking my homer views at the door, Kravtsov's offensive upside as a draft-eligible prospect was considered higher than Podkolzin's is and right now you have to give the edge to Kravtsov as a prospect. Kratsov might be seen as a reach at the time he was drafted, but he was easily a guy that if you were high on you were really high on. Podkolzin does play a heavier game so the bust factor in terms of adjusting to the NHL game if he's not scoring is much lower IMO.

 

[flying v 604]

I don't mean to bring politics into this but....

Russia and North America aren't exactly the best buds right now and Putin is a hell of a propagandist...

I mean..

What's the likelihood of a 17 year old kid who grew up in in the capital city of Russia being a Canuck 4 Life?

I don't know.

(we all saw how EASY it was for Tryamkin to peace out of this clustereff of an organization).





Is that you Jake Virtanen?





Maybe it's Jake?





Da.... it's the Russian version of Jake Virtanen.

What a stupid post. There are 2 types of Russian players. Malkin Kuch Bob etc are the type that prefers being here. What do they have in common? There elite, fact is when it comes to evaluting tge flight risk its as easy as that. How many elite players bolt before their decline? Podz had his whooe family forvthe draft, participated in draft week and has stated numerous times his intent to honor his contract because hes loyal and wilo come over after that. The narrative of the Russian factor is stupid. Comparing hin to Jake is misleading, yes he has size and speed with an elite toolbox, is that a bad thing? He has better hands and a better IQ. Jake is still very young and has improved each year to the point he was on pace for 20 goals playing 11 mins on the 3rd/4th line with sub par linemates.

 

[Hansen]

Some players have a much higher positional defensive IQ than they do an offensive IQ/hockey sense with the puck on their stick. Brandon Sutter is the extreme example of this.

From my viewings which are limited to the U18s, he absolutely has a quality motor and understanding of defensive play that is miles beyond anything Virtanen had at the same age, and projects well in this regard moving up levels.

With the puck on his stick - not so much. To me he's a guy who tries to drive the play forward with his athleticism and doesn't have great vision of the ice or ability to use his linemates well. Again, I think a guy like Evander Kane has a very similar skillset/style offensively. That's still better than Virtanen, but I don't see huge offensive upside here at all.

When he's trying to make moves and beat guys with athleticism yeah, he struggles a bit there. I think that his offensive positioning is just as strong as his defensive though, he is shifting around the zone, getting open, creating new passing lanes, he is always looking for ways to create a new scoring opportunity through movement of the puck. You see it a few times in the video where he either shifts around the net to be open in front or shifts to create a lane to the guy in front and rips a pass off. The numbers on his low risk passing plays are strong apparently, and I think it shows in his cycle game. He cycles pretty efficiently.

I don't expect Podkolzin to be the gamebreaking forward on his line, if we can get a 20-30-50~ winger who is a physical force and creates space that's a very good piece for the team. I've been vocal about how he reminds me a lot of Landeskog, and that's a kind of player our forward core is sorely missing. Would be good value for a 10th pick (but not if Caufield becomes a 30+ goal scorer lol)

 

[CanaFan]

Is it better for us to have Podkolzin coming in two years, or Tyson Barrie here now? Heard an interview with Barrie on 650 radio, and he said Friday, draft day, was the closest he’s been to being traded. He said he knew it was Vancouver, and then something went sideways, and things went quiet. (Then he got traded to the Leafs, which was surprising to him.).
I’m thinking it was Podkolzin being there at 10, that nixed the deal.
So, Podkolzin or Barrie?

Well, more accurately ...

1 year of the NHL player that Barrie is currently (then roll the dice on UFA)

OR

7-10 years of whatever NHL player Podkolzin becomes


I’ll take 7-10x the length of service for a player that has a half decent chance (40%? 50%?) of being at least as useful as Barrie.

I’m not sure 1 year of Barrie at this point in our “compete window” even has any meaningful value tbh. Granted, I don’t considering saving the GM’s job to be meaningful.

 

[bandwagonesque]

Is it better for us to have Podkolzin coming in two years, or Tyson Barrie here now? Heard an interview with Barrie on 650 radio, and he said Friday, draft day, was the closest he’s been to being traded. He said he knew it was Vancouver, and then something went sideways, and things went quiet. (Then he got traded to the Leafs, which was surprising to him.).
I’m thinking it was Podkolzin being there at 10, that nixed the deal.
So, Podkolzin or Barrie?

The offer was reported as Virtanen and the 2020 1st. There's no indication this year's 1st was in play for Barrie.

 

[Smeagoal]

The offer was reported as Virtanen and the 2020 1st. There's no indication this year's 1st was in play for Barrie.

Losing that 1st would be steep though...means we'd have no 1st round pick in the NHL Draft till 2022.

We would have a shot at making the playoffs w/ Barrie in 2020 (meaning COL wouldn't get a potentially high pick) but if he left via FA/couldn't afford to resign him, we'd pretty much be handing Tampa a top-3 pick w/ the 2021 1st we gave up for J.T. Miller.

Oof' Benning. C'mon.

 

[Bleach Clean]

When he's trying to make moves and beat guys with athleticism yeah, he struggles a bit there. I think that his offensive positioning is just as strong as his defensive though, he is shifting around the zone, getting open, creating new passing lanes, he is always looking for ways to create a new scoring opportunity through movement of the puck. You see it a few times in the video where he either shifts around the net to be open in front or shifts to create a lane to the guy in front and rips a pass off. The numbers on his low risk passing plays are strong apparently, and I think it shows in his cycle game. He cycles pretty efficiently.

I don't expect Podkolzin to be the gamebreaking forward on his line, if we can get a 20-30-50~ winger who is a physical force and creates space that's a very good piece for the team. I've been vocal about how he reminds me a lot of Landeskog, and that's a kind of player our forward core is sorely missing. Would be good value for a 10th pick (but not if Caufield becomes a 30+ goal scorer lol)

I'm not sure I see a Landeskog comparable. Landy is very smart in the OZone. He has to be, otherwise his skating would marginalize him overall. This intelligence includes offensive positioning, but also creativity with the puck. Quick hands and deft high danger passing. He plays off of more skilled players well.

In contrast, Podkolzin gets tunnel vision and has an impetuous bend to his play. Sometimes he'll be so focused on gaining the zone that once across the line he has skated himself into a corner. Or, he'll take a shot when he has a streaking option on the far side. Or, he won't drop the puck to the middle of the ice and instead tries to beat his defender wide.

All that said, a 50~ point player would be good. Not great, but good.

 

[Nabrules]

Stick him with Pettersson and he’s a 60 point guy at the very least. His skill set is exactly what Pettersson needs as one of his wingers.