Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Entry Draft (Ducks pick #3, They didn’t drop! OMG It’s a Miracle!)

[forever1922]

I keep wondering about Berkly Catton, I have a feeling people are not paying enough attention on him. Had an incredible WHL season on a relatively weak team.

People seem to find a lot to complain about his game - not good enough a skater, not big enough, not physical enough, etc. I’m not a pro scout or anything, but the kid seems very talented to me.

Yeah but no one's doubting his talent.

It's the combination of his skills and stature, skating and likelyhood of moving to wing at next level. That type of player historically slides down closer to the draft, because the other winger start to look more appealing.

To me, the group of Catton, Helenius, Iginla, Eiserman is very much up to preference.

 

[TheGoodShepard1]

oh so the draft order CAN stay the same huh? guess it's a different story when it's not a generational talent. lol

for real tho, kinda shocked no team moved but at least Chicago didn't win it.

I never really follow pre-draft stuff but seems like people have us taking another center. which I feel like we have plenty of already

3 of the last 4 years, the team with the best odds to win the lottery actually won it. Can you guess which team didn’t the year they had the worst record?

 

[Dryish]

3 of the last 4 years, the team with the best odds to win the lottery actually won it. Can you guess which team didn’t the year they had the worst record?

This is a casual reminder that Colorado didn't win either when they had their record-breakingly bad year. They fell to 4 and picked Cale Makar, who has since gone to become by far the best player in that draft.

Not saying the Bedard situation is similar, but pointing out that missing the win isn't necessarily an awful thing.

 

[Gliff]

Do you think that's a special category or something?

No but I think they are what is relevant for the current conversation. Like it or not but famous athletes are different then everyday people.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

We’d be penalized so much for touching either players that we would get killed on the power plays…

True but I figured they would just penalize the Ducks so much anyways because NHL wants Chicago to go far. The Ducks still get so much penalty minutes despite no more Perry, Getzlaf, Beauch,Kesler etc
At least then the penaltys they take would be for dishing out damage instead of little interference/hooking calls.

 

[FiveTacos]

He sort of reminds me of Bryzgalov in personality.

Sold!

"Minus thirty two! It's like North Pole!"

 

[HanSolo]

Sold!

"Minus thirty two! It's like North Pole!"

Everyone loves the humangus big and why you heff to be mad videos but this is my favorite



Whats your mindset going into (the Winter Classic) tomorrow's game?

Ah make sure I am not forgetting tomorrow early in the morning the terrmohs, have some tea and enjoy the bench.

Bonus for: I heard the plan was still for Philadelphia Flyers to win the cup this year

 

[lwvs84]

Demidov, Elick, and Emery with our top 3 picks.
?-Carlsson-Demidov
?-McTavish-Terry
Gauthier-Zegras-?
Fill in the blanks (Colangelo as 3RW?)
LD- Minty, Zellweger, LaCombe
RD- Luneau, Elick, Emery

Get bigger on defense, as skill up front. Or Lindstrom at 3 and just have a huge team. Or Lev and a forward prospect with one of the other two picks (I just trust drafting D over F with late first or second rounders)

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Everyone loves the humangus big and why you heff to be mad videos but this is my favorite



Whats your mindset going into (the Winter Classic) tomorrow's game?

Ah make sure I am not forgetting tomorrow early in the morning the terrmohs, have some tea and enjoy the bench.

Bonus for: I heard the plan was still for Philadelphia Flyers to win the cup this year

I wish the Ducks would get him involved with the organization, either post game shows, interviewing players, helping Russian draft picks adapt to NA. He did interview players during on the NHL allstar break some years back so he's certainly qualified for that. He still lives in the USA even after retirement.

 

[StreetHawk]

3 of the last 4 years, the team with the best odds to win the lottery actually won it. Can you guess which team didn’t the year they had the worst record?

Draft lottery luck has flipped over the past 4 lotteries.

Outright % to win have not changed for the bottom teams. Still 18.5, 13.5, 11.5%.

9 years since they drew more than the 1st pick. Look at the top 2 picks, the results are as follows:

18 draws

Bottom 3 has won it 10/18 times. With 7/8 the past 4 lotteries.
Teams at 4/5 have won it 3/18 times. Spot on their probability of around 17% combined.
Teams at 6 and later won it 5/18 times. None in the past 4 years.

If you were a tank person, the last 4 drafts would reinforce that thought. The first 5 draft lotteries of multiple picks drawn, would not have.

Ebbs and flows of the lottery of a small sample size so far.

 

[ADHB]

Don't know if it was mentioned yet here, but thought it was interesting. After winning the drawing for the #1 pick, the Sharks kept winning the drawing for #2. It took three or four more tries before someone else (Chicago) finally won that one.

While we did win the drawing for #2 last year, would have been nice if we had the same luck as the Sharks this year.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Draft lottery luck has flipped over the past 4 lotteries.

Outright % to win have not changed for the bottom teams. Still 18.5, 13.5, 11.5%.

9 years since they drew more than the 1st pick. Look at the top 2 picks, the results are as follows:

18 draws

Bottom 3 has won it 10/18 times. With 7/8 the past 4 lotteries.
Teams at 4/5 have won it 3/18 times. Spot on their probability of around 17% combined.
Teams at 6 and later won it 5/18 times. None in the past 4 years.

If you were a tank person, the last 4 drafts would reinforce that thought. The first 5 draft lotteries of multiple picks drawn, would not have.

Ebbs and flows of the lottery of a small sample size so far.

The multiple draw draft rules have changed since it's inception in 2016.

2016-2020 was a three draw draft.
2021-2022 was a two draw draft with three new rules:

1) No team can drop lower than two spots from their original spot.​

2) Team can only jump 10 spots.​

3) No single team can "advance" in the draft order by reason of winning a Lottery Draw more than two times in aany five-year period.​

It's not really ebbs and flow, but designed so bottom feeder teams don't get ousted from a top-3 pick, which did happen to the Red Wings in the 2020 draft lottery. They owned the worst record, but ended up dropping to 4th after the lottery. No more playoff or fringe playoff team winning first overall like the NYR did in the 2020 draft.

The oddest part about the multi-draft era was that in 9 years, there hasn't been a draft that stayed the same after the lottery. Those odds are very slim.

 

[StreetHawk]

The multiple draw draft rules have changed since it's inception in 2016.

2016-2020 was a three draw draft.
2021-2022 was a two draw draft with three new rules:

1) No team can drop lower than two spots from their original spot.​

2) Team can only jump 10 spots.​

3) No single team can "advance" in the draft order by reason of winning a Lottery Draw more than two times in aany five-year period.​

It's not really ebbs and flow, but designed so bottom feeder teams don't get ousted from a top-3 pick, which did happen to the Red Wings in the 2020 draft lottery. They owned the worst record, but ended up dropping to 4th after the lottery. No more playoff or fringe playoff team winning first overall like the NYR did in the 2020 draft.

The oddest part about the multi-draft era was that in 9 years, there hasn't been a draft that stayed the same after the lottery. Those odds are very slim.

These last 4 draft lotteries, it's been the bottom 3 winning outright, without the extra 7% help from the 12-16 teams winning and moving up to the 2-6 spot. 7/8 for the bottom 3 with #5 NJ moving up to #2 in 2022.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

These last 4 draft lotteries, it's been the bottom 3 winning outright, without the extra 7% help from the 12-16 teams winning and moving up to the 2-6 spot. 7/8 for the bottom 3 with #5 NJ moving up to #2 in 2022.

I'm not too sure about that b/c we only see the end result with the cards being shown. The #1 overall gets the added 7% from teams 12-16. For the past four drafts, three of the #1 teams retained the #1 status. In the three draw lottery, only 2 out of 5 retained the #1 pick.

 

[Rasp]

I'm not too sure about that b/c we only see the end result with the cards being shown. The #1 overall gets the added 7% from teams 12-16. For the past four drafts, three of the #1 teams retained the #1 status. In the three draw lottery, only 2 out of 5 retained the #1 pick.

They release the actual draw too after they do the card reveal. They assess what team the 4 numbers drawn relates to and call it out.

 

[StreetHawk]

I'm not too sure about that b/c we only see the end result with the cards being shown. The #1 overall gets the added 7% from teams 12-16. For the past four drafts, three of the #1 teams retained the #1 status. In the three draw lottery, only 2 out of 5 retained the #1 pick.

With going back to the cap on how many slots a team can move up, (ala 2014 and earlier which was 4 spots, thus the worst team had their own 24% plus all of 6-14 chances of another 23% to retain top pick, thus a coin flip really), the worst team is now about a 25.5% chance to keep the top pick.

I believe the teams that were outside the top 5 that had gotten a top 2 pick (from the 2016-2020) were Winnipeg at 6 in 2016 to get Laine, Carolina at 11 to get Svech at 2 in 2018, NYR in that odd draw in 2020 so basically one of the 9-15 team got it, NYR at 6 in 2019 got #2, Phi in 2017 was 12th worst, but NHL awarded LV 10.3% odds, same as the #3 worst team.

The odds really have not changed since 2016. Just happens that in the last 4 draft lotteries the bottom 3 have been winning them with just their 43.5% odds. Apparently, SJ's numbers came up 3 straight times and the NHL needed to draw the #2 pick a total of 3 times before Chicago's number came up.

 

[JabbaJabba]

I wish the Ducks would get him involved with the organization, either post game shows, interviewing players, helping Russian draft picks adapt to NA. He did interview players during on the NHL allstar break some years back so he's certainly qualified for that. He still lives in the USA even after retirement.

His son is also a goalie and he's eligible for this year's draft. Vladislav Bryzgalov - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

 

[Gliff]

There are a lot of defensemen I am interested in the 2nd round. Not many forwards this year. The one forward I am f***ing praying the Ducks get is Yegor Surin.
My favorite scouting report says he is a solid 2-way forward with legit offensive upside and "an absolute piece of shit to play against".

 

[MMC]

Am I missing something or are day 2 tickets really only like $50 including fees?

 

[Gliff]

Am I missing something or are day 2 tickets really only like $50 including fees?

Day 2 tickets were $5 last year in Nashville. Pretty sure day 1 tickets were like $75.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Am I missing something or are day 2 tickets really only like $50 including fees?

Tell Henry or Pat to give you a credential.

 

[forever1922]

There are a lot of defensemen I am interested in the 2nd round. Not many forwards this year. The one forward I am f***ing praying the Ducks get is Yegor Surin.
My favorite scouting report says he is a solid 2-way forward with legit offensive upside and "an absolute piece of shit to play against".

Agreed, Surin is who I want to target with the Oilers 1st, but I fear it will be too late.

I've mentioned elsewhere but the MHL profile in Youtube has all the playoff Surin vs Demidov full games. Surin is a handful.

 

[91Fedorov]

So, I think we can all agree, thank god the rigged draft got leaked!

After the leak, they weren't able to just pencil us in for losing 1 spot like usual. It just goes to show that we do Ok, when Bettman isn't allowed to cheat!

 

[KickHisAssZegrass]

The more I watch the D-men in this draft the more I'm confident Buium is the play. Yeah he's average size and shoots left, not ideal, but I'll take the guy with his kind of elite awareness in all zones over guys with physical advantages every time.

Haven't really seen him ranked as high as 3 but I would be stoked to see the Ducks grab him.

Wouldn't mind going with RH D Emery with the late first as well. There's some interesting forwards they can target in the 2nd.

 

[forever1922]

There are a lot of defensemen I am interested in the 2nd round. Not many forwards this year. The one forward I am f***ing praying the Ducks get is Yegor Surin.
My favorite scouting report says he is a solid 2-way forward with legit offensive upside and "an absolute piece of shit to play against".

I went through the stats, since I never bothered to check before.

What I found is that the eye test for Surin being a one man show in the playoffs was more true than I even expected.

Regular season
Surin scored 52pts in 42 games for 1.2 PPG with +35

...and placed 3rd on the team behind Rogovsky 58pts and Yabelov 52pts (ahead on goals).

Postseason
Surin scored 23pts in 19 games, again 1.2PPG with +15

But the rest of team's leading scorers' offense went away and he lead the team in playoff scoring by a massive 9 pts for almost double the points as the next guy Yabelov while also leading the team in +/-, (and yes PIMs aswell).

Now while Demidov basically (because Volgin scored 4 more points in 24 more games he technically didn't) lead the MHL season and postseason scoring by 2PPG and 1.65PPG respectively, in the playoffs Surin was right there with him in terms of impact on the ice. That's why Surin will rise massively in the rankings close to the draft.