Your Team's Top 10 Prospects

[Quinnisinoverhishead]

Sens list with my expectations as far as what the players realistically project as.

1. Jake Sanderson - #1 defenseman
2. Shane Pinto - 2nd line center
3. Erik Brannstrom - 2nd pairing D
4. Egor Sokolov - 2nd line RW
5. Jacob Bernard Docker - 2nd pairing D
6. Tyler Boucher - 3rd line RW
7. Ridly Greig - 3rd line C/LW
8. Alex Formenton - 3rd line LW
9. Tyler Kleven - 3rd pairing D
10. Logan Brown - 2nd line center (but high bust potential)

Brannstrom has already played 63 games in the show. I don't really see him as a prospect. Even if you wanted to make him a prospect - Greig isn't your #7. Sanderson is the only one clearly ahead of him. Docker, boucher and sokolov << Greig

 

[EXTRAS]

No biggie but I think Jones should be 3. I think he showed immense promise in his cameo at the end of last season.

And I think barron should be higher.

 

[AKL]

1. Evan Bouchard
2. Dylan Holloway
3. Philip Broberg
4. Dmitri Samorukov
5. Ryan McLeod
6. Xavier Bourgault
7. Ilya Konovalov
8. Tyler Benson
9. Raphael Lavoie
10. William Lagesson

In my opinion, anyway.

Why are you so low on Bourgault?

 

[Gecklund]

1. William Eklund
2. Thomas Bordeleau
3. Ryan Merkley
4. Ozzy Wiesblatt
5. Jonathan Dahlen
6. Tristen Robins
7. Daniil Gushchin
8. Artemi Kniazev
9. Alex Chmelevski
10. Ivan Chekhovich

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Why are you so low on Bourgault?

Just from looking at his list it looks like he values NHL readiness, or near it, pretty highly.

 

[Osakahaus]

This was hard because Dobson, Wahlstrom, and Sorokin have all graduated IMO. Leaving the team with many B level prospects. Feel free to completely disagree with the following list:

View attachment 458754
1. Samuel Bolduc (D)
2. Robin Salo (D)
3. Bode Wilde (D)
4. Kieffer Bellows (F)
5. Aatu Räty (F)
6. William Dufour (F)
7. Simon Holmström (F)
8. Alexander Ljungkrantz (F)
9. Alex Jefferies (F)
10. Ruslan Iskhakov (F)
11. Otto Koivula (F)
12. Collin Adams (F)

Bellows feels like a massive stretch since he's played NHL games. But I do agree with this. Ishakov is one i hope is retained since he's in manheim this year, after a very strong season for TPS. Biggest upsides are guys like Jeffries and Dufour, while I see Bolduc as someone who might actually make our roster next season

 

[AddyTheWrath]

Why are you so low on Bourgault?

To be honest I haven’t seen enough of his game to rank him accurately. In fact, you could probably rearrange a few of those guys at the bottom of the list and I would be fine with it.

Like @ChaoticOrange said, I place a pretty high value on NHL readiness, just because the Oilers are kind of in a win now mode. I would sooner trade Bourgault (who is still a few years away by all accounts) over McLeod, just to capitalize on McDrai’s prime.

 

[Pavels Dog]

And on the other side it should also be up to the people who are criticizing the models as "bad" to actually learn some more and come up with more coherent arguments other than "you rated this player low = model bad".

Out of 140 draft eligibles from 2008-2021 drafts, only 14 were d-men. (topdownhockey)

Not sure what more of an argument is needed that a model has no idea what it's doing with d-men and isn't much more accurate than pulling names out of a hat.

I don't understand why you're so hung up on drafting fewer defensemen. If any club walked out of the 2014 draft with Nylander, Pastrnak, Point, and Arvidsson (I also believe the Potato was high on Kase, who was also a good player before tough injuries), they would've had the greatest draft of all time. 3 bonafide star players and another 1st line player (at his peak). Who cares if they're not defensemen? You've drafted incredible players and if you need to balance your lineup, find a trade. This draft alone would've made "the Potato" one of the best-drafting teams of the 2010s.

It's not really about what could happen if a team drafted according to these models, those thought experiments are interesting but not much more.
The problem happens when twitter and message boards get swamped with "prospect cards" or "prospect pool rankings" or "who had the best draft" and it's all based on the same flawed model, with the people creating the visualisations trying their best not to be transparent about the underlying issues (such as giving a guy a 0% chance to make the NHL based on a 6 game sample size).

 

[ricky0034]

Because your vast scouting knowledge and immeasurable viewings can impart us with much more wisdom.

Everyone knows what the flaws of NHLe models are. They're not really akin to the "twitter analytics" models you clearly have no idea about considering they basically are purely points-based.

They're ideal use is more for a ballpark likelihood of success, not a granular ranking or evaluation. But of course, the scouts have never been wrong either and are practically infallible, so statistical models I guess are pretty useless.

the 5th,6th,and 8th ranked Defensemen in this years draft with that TopDownHockey model you guys are talking about weren't even drafted at all

it's a joke

 

[Frk It]

Mo Seider, Lucas Raymond, Simon Edvinsson, Sebastian Cossa, Jonatan Berggren, Joe Veleno, Shai Buium, Theodor Niederbach, William Wallinder, Albert Johansson

This would probably be my top 10 for Detroit. Not necessarily in that order. Probably the most quality prospects I have seen this team have that I can remember.

 

[newfy]

Mo Seider, Lucas Raymond, Simon Edvinsson, Sebastian Cossa, Jonatan Berggren, Joe Veleno, Shai Buium, Theodor Niederbach, William Wallinder, Albert Johansson

This would probably be my top 10 for Detroit. Not necessarily in that order. Probably the most quality prospects I have seen this team have that I can remember.

One of, if not the best group in the league. Need a Wright/Savoie/Lambert though

 

[bossram]

Out of 140 draft eligibles from 2008-2021 drafts, only 14 were d-men. (topdownhockey)

Not sure what more of an argument is needed that a model has no idea what it's doing with d-men and isn't much more accurate than pulling names out of a hat.

It's not really about what could happen if a team drafted according to these models, those thought experiments are interesting but not much more.
The problem happens when twitter and message boards get swamped with "prospect cards" or "prospect pool rankings" or "who had the best draft" and it's all based on the same flawed model, with the people creating the visualisations trying their best not to be transparent about the underlying issues (such as giving a guy a 0% chance to make the NHL based on a 6 game sample size).

the 5th,6th,and 8th ranked Defensemen in this years draft with that TopDownHockey model you guys are talking about weren't even drafted at all

it's a joke

Again, you both get hung up on the "no defensemen" thing when these models aren't even intended to draft some kind of well-rounded roster. They're really just a loose evaluation of how efficient a draft pick is (or not). The point of drafting is to find good players. Again, in the hypothetical 2014 example, sure you would draft all forwards, but you'd have 3 legit stars, a 1st liner, and another NHLer. Who cares if there's no defenseman there? Trade for one. This is such an odd criticism.

And again, as I already said, I understand these cards and viz's shouldn't be the end-all of draft analysis. But if you hate them so much, don't participate in their discussion. Or post your own draft list and show that you're better than the models.

Melvin's potato model legit outdrafted NHL teams. If you think that kind of a model is a "joke", I'm not sure what you think of the multi-million NHL scouting teams then.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Sens

1. Jake Sanderson
2. Shane Pinto
3. Tyler Boucher
4. Ridley Greig
5. Jacob Bernard-Docker
6. Alex Formenton
7. Mads Sogaard
8. Tyler Kleven
9. Egor Sokolov
10. Levi Merilainen

 

[NYR425]

1. Vitali Kravtsov
2. Nils Lundkvist
3. Braden Schneider
4. Zac Jones
5. Brett Berard
6. Matthew Robertson
7. Morgan Barron
8. Lauri Pajuniemi
9. Tarmo Reunanen
10. Brennan Othmann

think it is more likely like this......

1 a- Lundkvist
1 b- Schneider
3- Kravtsov
4- Othmann
5- Robertson
6- Grubbe
7- Jones
8- Cuylie
9- Barron
10- Berard

Not a fan of either Pajuniemi and Reunanen, both are liabilities in the defensive zone.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Again, you both get hung up on the "no defensemen" thing when these models aren't even intended to draft some kind of well-rounded roster. They're really just a loose evaluation of how efficient a draft pick is (or not). The point of drafting is to find good players. Again, in the hypothetical 2014 example, sure you would draft all forwards, but you'd have 3 legit stars, a 1st liner, and another NHLer. Who cares if there's no defenseman there? Trade for one. This is such an odd criticism.

And again, as I already said, I understand these cards and viz's shouldn't be the end-all of draft analysis. But if you hate them so much, don't participate in their discussion. Or post your own draft list and show that you're better than the models.

Melvin's potato model legit outdrafted NHL teams. If you think that kind of a model is a "joke", I'm not sure what you think of the multi-million NHL scouting teams then.

You're completely missing the point. It's not about what kind of roster such a model would build, it's about it's value as a tool in rating prospects.

My original argument was that the model used as basis for rating teams' prospect pools is bad, and that it especially has no use in rating d-men.
You've only gone on about how it can outdraft some NHL teams when it comes to forwards, but not addressed why the model should even be applied to defensive prospects if it's clearly failing at it.

As for my "own draft list", I'm not here to outsmart NHL teams - I simply don't agree with a mathematical model that rates Cale Makar as a 4th round pick instead of a #4OA pick.

 

[HighLifeMan]

1. Matthew Coronato
2. Connor Zary
3. Jakob Pelletier
4. Daniel Vladar
5. Dustin Wolf
6. William Stromgren
7. Emil Heinemen
8. Jeremie Poirier
9. Yan Kuznetsov
10. Ryan Francis

HM : Adam Ruzicka

 

[Masked]

Sens list with my expectations as far as what the players realistically project as.

1. Jake Sanderson - #1 defenseman
2. Shane Pinto - 2nd line center
3. Erik Brannstrom - 2nd pairing D
4. Egor Sokolov - 2nd line RW
5. Jacob Bernard Docker - 2nd pairing D
6. Tyler Boucher - 3rd line RW
7. Ridly Greig - 3rd line C/LW
8. Alex Formenton - 3rd line LW
9. Tyler Kleven - 3rd pairing D
10. Logan Brown - 2nd line center (but high bust potential)

I suspect you're not factoring in that Sokolov is 2 years older than the other players from his draft. Jarventie is a very noticeable omission too.

Assen na yo!

 

[Hale The Villain]

I suspect you're not factoring in that Sokolov is 2 years older than the other players from his draft. Jarventie is a very noticeable omission too.

Assen na yo!

Sokolov just finished his 20YR old season but had an excellent first pro season.

If Greig or Jarventie stepped into the AHL next year (same development year as Sokolov was in this past season) and put up the same kind of numbers, I'd be happy with their progress.

Sokolov has top 6 skill and scoring ability and incredible work ethic and off-ice habits. I like his chances of ending up a top 6 player more than Greig or Jarventie, but I'm sure some will disagree.

 

[bossram]

You're completely missing the point. It's not about what kind of roster such a model would build, it's about it's value as a tool in rating prospects.

My original argument was that the model used as basis for rating teams' prospect pools is bad, and that it especially has no use in rating d-men.
You've only gone on about how it can outdraft some NHL teams when it comes to forwards, but not addressed why the model should even be applied to defensive prospects if it's clearly failing at it.

As for my "own draft list", I'm not here to outsmart NHL teams - I simply don't agree with a mathematical model that rates Cale Makar as a 4th round pick instead of a #4OA pick.

The point of the draft is to draft good players. If you outdraft other teams by only drafting forwards (obviously not optimal, but still)...who cares? Acquire some defensemen via trade or free agency. It's incredibly sad for NHL scouting departments that a simplistic model with limited information could outdraft them, even while just ignoring a large segment of available players. Why are conventional scouts so wrong all the time? Why aren't their analytical tools/evaluations invalid considering the incredible "misses" conventional scouts make? Who said the Rangers should choose McIlrath over Cam Fowler? Clearly, those scouts' mental models should not be "applied to defensive prospects".

And Melvin's potato model doesn't really ding defensemen like TDH or the "Sham Sharron" model. You could also modify the results to "boost" defensemen production. The tools do show who could be a value draft prospect (e.g. a Brayden Point, Andrew Mangiapane, Sebastian Aho, etc).

 

[kings11]

The Kings are doing ok prospect wise

Quinton Byfield
Brandt Clarke
Alex Turcotte
Arthur Kaliyev
Brock Faber
Rasmus Kupari
Samuel Fagemo
Tyler Madden
Helge Grans
Francesco Pinelli

 

[Pavels Dog]

The point of the draft is to draft good players. If you outdraft other teams by only drafting forwards (obviously not optimal, but still)...who cares? Acquire some defensemen via trade or free agency.

Not relevant in discussions where these tools are used to rate/project prospects and prospect pools.

And NHL scouts may be wrong frequently, but they still overall do a better job of ballparking prospects.
2015 for example - every guy in the 1st round has NHL games. Topdownhockey's model had at least 5-6 guys rated as 1st round talents who are essentially playing beer league hockey at this point.
2010 - yes their model wouldn't rank McIlrath high. But they'd still have you taking Maxim Kitsyn over Cam Fowler. Who? Exactly.

 

[majormajor]

Not relevant in discussions where these tools are used to rate/project prospects and prospect pools.

I agree it can't be used to compare F heavy pools like Columbus' with D heavy pools like Detroit's.

And NHL scouts may be wrong frequently, but they still overall do a better job of ballparking prospects.

I'm not so sure that's true. Even in 2017 when the NHLe model whiffed on Makar, it still had Pettersson rated #1. They went 4 and 5 but funny enough both players were more frequently ranked in the teens, with Pronman having them around #17-#18, and with hockeyprospect.com I think being the only one to have them close to where they were drafted.

 

[ricky0034]

Again, you both get hung up on the "no defensemen" thing when these models aren't even intended to draft some kind of well-rounded roster. They're really just a loose evaluation of how efficient a draft pick is (or not). The point of drafting is to find good players. Again, in the hypothetical 2014 example, sure you would draft all forwards, but you'd have 3 legit stars, a 1st liner, and another NHLer. Who cares if there's no defenseman there? Trade for one. This is such an odd criticism.

And again, as I already said, I understand these cards and viz's shouldn't be the end-all of draft analysis. But if you hate them so much, don't participate in their discussion. Or post your own draft list and show that you're better than the models.

Melvin's potato model legit outdrafted NHL teams. If you think that kind of a model is a "joke", I'm not sure what you think of the multi-million NHL scouting teams then.

i'm "hung up" on how it ranks defensemen against other Defensemen

it's a joke

....oh and those players I mentioned that weren't drafted at all had a 26th,28th,40th rank overall with that model so there's two first round grades and an early 2nd that weren't drafted at all right there(and I had to stop at 8 because I was using the twitter and it only showed the top 3 undrafted at the position) so it's not even "just draft good players who cares if they are Defensemen lol"

 

[Frk It]

1. Matthew Coronato
2. Connor Zary
3. Jakob Pelletier
4. Daniel Vladar
5. Dustin Wolf
6. William Stromgren
7. Emil Heinemen
8. Jeremie Poirier
9. Yan Kuznetsov
10. Ryan Francis

HM : Adam Ruzicka

Damn you guys draft a lot of players I like. I was very high on Coronato, Zary, and Pelletier. Also liked Stromgren a lot, and liked Wolf.

 

[WiscoJet]

1. LW/C-Cole Perfetti
2. LD-Ville Heinola
3. RW/C-Chaz Lucius
4. C-David Gustafsson
5. LW-Kristian Vesalainen
6. LD-Dylan Samberg
7. RW-Daniel Torgersson
8. LW-Nikita Chibrikov
9. LD-Declan Chisholm
10. G-Mikhail Berdin