Your Rebuild Opinion? Next Move Coming?

[SantosHalper]

Why??? I do not understand at all, why you and others are keen to sign a soon-to-be 30yr old who simply cannot stay healthy. He will wanna cash out and demand term. All the while he has missed close to 60 games over the last 2yrs, has not played 82 games in forever and was just busted with PEDs. Why are we pushing these obvious red flags aside? ASP will be ready soon enough, so taking on a mammoth contract for that very spot is IMO a major mistake born out of growing impatience. We need an LD more urgently anyway and that market is way stronger

1st pair all-situations defenseman whom went to the finals 3 years in a row and won B2B Cups while shutting down the best player in the world. Leadership, winning culture. And like you said soon to be 30, still in his prime. 4 good years left at least.

Kronwall was injury prone in his youth but despite that he was still 0.41 PPG, on a downhill team at age of 34/35. Ekblad in same age would be in a team trending up but in a smaller role than Kronwall was. Ekblad in 2nd pair would also leave ASP in more sheltered role and therefore effecting his next contract. And that would be a very affordable for the Wings.

 

[Winged Wheel Willy]

Dallas is still very much

1st pair all-situations defenseman whom went to the finals 3 years in a row and won B2B Cups while shutting down the best player in the world. Leadership, winning culture. And like you said soon to be 30, still in his prime. 4 good years left at least.

Kronwall was injury prone in his youth but despite that he was still 0.41 PPG, on a downhill team at age of 34/35. Ekblad in same age would be in a team trending up but in a smaller role than Kronwall was. Ekblad in 2nd pair would also leave ASP in more sheltered role and therefore effecting his next contract. And that would be a very affordable for the Wings.

I agree on the intangibles, not on the rest. He maybe has 4 good yrs left, limited to the games he will actually be available for. And by getting older it will hardly result in him being healthier. That is not a security blanket for ASP. He has size, is aggressive and is good offensively. I like that. He'd push GustaMfsson off of the PP, which is good. But when ASP arrives, he will need thos PP minutes. Maybe you go with 2dmen on PP2, that is prob not tenable for long, cuz of the upcoming kids. Long story short: In all likelihood there will not be a spot for Ekblad on the PP within the next 2-3yrs, which will diminish his value further.

PPG does not mean much to me, when you can barely give me 60gms and Ekblad was never the defender Kronwall was.

The key to shutting down McDavid was not Ekblad, but Barkov and partly Lundell. Ekblad's individual defense is not that good.

He is a prime candidate that you'd have to pay to get rid of when we are true contenders. And contenders in their window should use their assets to add, not subract. I am not totally opposed to signing him, but certainly not max term. I'd be willing to give him 7,5x4, if we strike out on the better options, but I doubt Ekblad would take that deal anyway.

 

[TheOctopusKid]

Dallas is still very much

I agree on the intangibles, not on the rest. He maybe has 4 good yrs left, limited to the games he will actually be available for. And by getting older it will hardly result in him being healthier. That is not a security blanket for ASP. He has size, is aggressive and is good offensively. I like that. He'd push GustaMfsson off of the PP, which is good. But when ASP arrives, he will need thos PP minutes. Maybe you go with 2dmen on PP2, that is prob not tenable for long, cuz of the upcoming kids....

All really strong points but I know you agreed to the 'intangibles', but I think maybe underestimate their importance here. I'm kind of neutral on the Ekbald rumors, not because I don't think he can help, but probably for the same reason you are. I think the ideal contract is probably 4x8M AAV, I do not think he will sign for that - I would expect it would take 7x7.5M and the back half is suspect making it a great add in my mind, to a meh one.

All of that to be said, I do think there is more value to bringing him in at a big contract and that's kind of specifically around the 'intangibles'. He's not the elite stud defense at the highest echelon - but he is a true bonafide Top 4D, no questions. We know he's at least that which I cannot say about anyone right now outside of Mo and Ed. So we know he can play that role, and actually carry a pair. Many of the other options out there come with some serious 'what ifs'. So the fact we can place a definitive Top 4 D whose neither a black hole on offense or black hole on defense and can carry a 20min+ pairing a night, brings a lot of confidence.

I think really the bigger value is that... he's done it. He's won the Cup twice. He know what it takes to be a leader, a winner: the commitment, the work, the culture, etc. And he knows how to do it as a defensive player and giving that to Mo and Ed, the Johanssons, and ASP, that is a pretty big step up over.. a Chiarot. This is a guy who still has probably 4-5 really productive years ahead of him and can be the A and leader of the D core to help shape them into a really strong professional unit, to pick them up when they get shelled, to push them to get better, to show them what he did in his career and honestly speak as a 1OA Pick on a really sh**ty Panthers team and how that team, and he helped change that culture, etc. I think that's honestly worth the price of admission for him.

And if we want to get into the numbers - assuming he goes for 8x7.5 and the cap does end up reaching 115 like some are predicting in a handful of season, his deal by 2029, could be worth about 6.5% of relative cap, which puts him into the tier Matt Roy's WAS deal last year a 5.75M. Which in the greatest scheme of things, doesn't feel all that out of sorts as I would see even a declining Ekbald at that approximate level.

 

[DTR]

Dallas is still very much

I agree on the intangibles, not on the rest. He maybe has 4 good yrs left, limited to the games he will actually be available for. And by getting older it will hardly result in him being healthier. That is not a security blanket for ASP. He has size, is aggressive and is good offensively. I like that. He'd push GustaMfsson off of the PP, which is good. But when ASP arrives, he will need thos PP minutes. Maybe you go with 2dmen on PP2, that is prob not tenable for long, cuz of the upcoming kids. Long story short: In all likelihood there will not be a spot for Ekblad on the PP within the next 2-3yrs, which will diminish his value further.

PPG does not mean much to me, when you can barely give me 60gms and Ekblad was never the defender Kronwall was.

The key to shutting down McDavid was not Ekblad, but Barkov and partly Lundell. Ekblad's individual defense is not that good.

View attachment 1052997

He is a prime candidate that you'd have to pay to get rid of when we are true contenders. And contenders in their window should use their assets to add, not subract. I am not totally opposed to signing him, but certainly not max term. I'd be willing to give him 7,5x4, if we strike out on the better options, but I doubt Ekblad would take that deal anyway.

I am not a big proponent of Ekblad but he would be getting a much easier assignment in Detroit, likely on the second pair with Edvinsson. I think it would allow the deal to age a bit more gracefully, but the issue is that you’re paying your #4 D #2D money.

 

[better Red than Dead]

I am not a big proponent of Ekblad but he would be getting a much easier assignment in Detroit, likely on the second pair with Edvinsson. I think it would allow the deal to age a bit more gracefully, but the issue is that you’re paying your #4 D #2D money.

I’m not sure I want a guy for that kind of monetary commitment whose heart is somewhere else and is broken down body wise quite a bit.

 

[SirloinUB]

Probably not worth putting stock into but Bennett was spouting off that Ekblad ain't going anywhere.

 

[DangerMouse]

Gavrikov is a cleaner fit than Ekblad. He and Seider would be an excellent 1st pairing and it leaves a spot open for ASP to slot in next to Edvinsson. The problem is that Ekblad has connections to Detroit and feels more "get-able" than Gavrikov. Maybe Gavrikov really loves McClellan?

However, it seems doubtful that ASP is going to be ready for a top 4 role out of camp so what are the short-term options for RHD that could fill in capably for a year and slide to the 3rd pair?

• Ryan Lindgren can play both sides and has been mentioned several times
• Tony DeAngelo is RH and might sign a short term deal
• Cody Ceci is RH and an FA *ducks*

 

[SantosHalper]

I agree on the intangibles, not on the rest. He maybe has 4 good yrs left, limited to the games he will actually be available for. And by getting older it will hardly result in him being healthier. That is not a security blanket for ASP. He has size, is aggressive and is good offensively. I like that. He'd push GustaMfsson off of the PP, which is good. But when ASP arrives, he will need thos PP minutes. Maybe you go with 2dmen on PP2, that is prob not tenable for long, cuz of the upcoming kids. Long story short: In all likelihood there will not be a spot for Ekblad on the PP within the next 2-3yrs, which will diminish his value further.

PPG does not mean much to me, when you can barely give me 60gms and Ekblad was never the defender Kronwall was.

The key to shutting down McDavid was not Ekblad, but Barkov and partly Lundell. Ekblad's individual defense is not that good.

In Detroit Ekblad would be in 2nd pair, easier work load than he had in Florida. But still takes pressure away from Seider. Which will definitely improve the team and common sense would say that easier deployment would decrease chance of injury. This season Ekblad missed most of his games due to suspension not because of injury.

ASP's ELC ends in 2028, next season goes in GR and probably starts 2026-27 season in GR but most likely will be the 1st call up. I believe he can take permanent spot but PP minutes will be low and not so consistant when/if there is fully healthy roster. So chances of ASP having 50-60 point season is low. 2027-28 use ASP and Ekblad in PP2, maybe ASP racks up around 40-45 points. Wings gets to re-sign ASP couple millions less, than having played all the possible PP minutes between 2026-2028 and racking up points. Offense costs money.

Starting from 2028-29 ASP in 1st PP unit and Ekblad probably one good year left, so he can still man the 2nd pair without PP time for at least 1 more year. 5-on-5 ASP in 3rd pair, adding shit ton of depth. Like Tampa played Hedman, McDonagh and Sergachev in different pairs. Last 2-3 years Ekblad in 3rd pair but i don't see his value dimishing. On the contrary, in more sheltered role he should still be able lift up the 3rd pair after ASP moves up. But if body is broken down, LTIR him.

Barkov was the immediate shadow but Ekblad took the same deployment.

He is a prime candidate that you'd have to pay to get rid of when we are true contenders. And contenders in their window should use their assets to add, not subract. I am not totally opposed to signing him, but certainly not max term. I'd be willing to give him 7,5x4, if we strike out on the better options, but I doubt Ekblad would take that deal anyway.

I don't see Ekblad becoming candidate to get rid off, top pair D since day 1. He will slow down, only natural with age but skill never disappears. When ASP playing cheaper than he should, team cap structure stays in order. Yeah Ekblad is not taking 4 years, this is retirement contract. 6 years sounds realistic.

Better option, means Gavrikov? I don't see him signing here, Wings ain't a playoff team. Ekblad is basically from here, he is more realistic to get. In order to get Gavrikov, it would require a overpayment and i don't see that as a good option for a d-man who doesn't do PP. Gavrikov played a great season, 30 points without PP. Ed did the same and now if we create hypothetical situation where Wings pay 8.5 to get Gavrikov. And next season Ed steals PP2 unit spot from Gus because he's terrible, Ed goes and scores let say 45-50 points. His ELC ends and he wants more than Gavrikov because he scored more and Wings pay 9.25. Then ASP comes in takes the 2nd pair and PP2 unit because there is no one front of him, scores 50 points 1st and next season takes PP1 from Seider, and racks up 60-70 points. He'll be looking +10 after that. Im not in favor of overpaying Gavrikov.

 

[stillwater]

Circling back to roster cancer Tony DeAngelo.

It never ends.

 

[19 for president]

Can Ekblad play his off side? I'd be a lot less against his deal if we could partner him with another RD if needed. I just don't want an 8 mil bottom pair dman in a year.

Like next year we could put Ed with Seider, slide Aljo back over to LD and pair him with Ekblad, but with ASP knocking I need to know we have a plan to put 3 RD in our top 4 sooner rather than later if we sign him.

 

[Winger98]

Can Ekblad play his off side? I'd be a lot less against his deal if we could partner him with another RD if needed. I just don't want an 8 mil bottom pair dman in a year.

Like next year we could put Ed with Seider, slide Aljo back over to LD and pair him with Ekblad, but with ASP knocking I need to know we have a plan to put 3 RD in our top 4 sooner rather than later if we sign him.

They wouldn't all be in the top4. Seider, Ekblad, and ASP could all run out on separate lines and all still get 20+ minutes a night. Like you said, you take Albert and slide him back to the left side, and let him run with Ekblad, and then you just have to find a suitable partner for ASP (Hague?).

what it would really require is someone eating their ego a bit. They could all look fine on the power play, but there just aren't that many spots open. I'm assuming Ekblad would see a ton of PK minutes.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

You are forgetting, how godf***inawful Perron and Ghost were at EV. Perron was basically unplayable 5on5, got demoted to the 4th line and Tarasenko seemed to have significantly more left in that regard at the time (ZOINKS). And they more or less got the same contract nonetheless. Plus, because of Kane Ghost and Perron's PP skills became expandable. And it is not like our PP is anything to complain about. These PP specalists, that crater us at EV have to decrease anyway.

Deployments matter. Both were better at PP than 5V5 for sure.

Ghost's +/- was the victim of a lot of ENGs in the last minute of a game but I'll be the first to admit he wasn't very strong defensively. His offense made up for his defensive warts though. This team lost the ability to move the puck when he left. Gus was a god awful replacement. But as a 3rd pair? Ghost and Maatta would have been a major boost to this team. Instead we got Gustafsson and Holl/petry.

Perron was never a burner and is now as slow as molasses on a winter morning in Michigan. He sometimes took dumb penalties when gassed at the end of a shift. But he worked his ass off, and provided strong board support defensively. He could plug in and provide depth scoring in the top 6 when there was an injury or things weren't working. And was a good mentor for the younger guys, and a glue guy in the locker room. There's value in that. Tank is not that depth guy.

I'd argue that if we kept Perron and Ghost, sat/waived, Holl, didn't sign Tank or Gus, and didn't trade Maatta (who played great for Utah, by the way...) then Detroit would have been a wildcard.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

• Tony DeAngelo is RH and might sign a short term deal

 

[Winged Wheel Willy]

Deployments matter. Both were better at PP than 5V5 for sure.

Ghost's +/- was the victim of a lot of ENGs in the last minute of a game but I'll be the first to admit he wasn't very strong defensively. His offense made up for his defensive warts though. This team lost the ability to move the puck when he left. Gus was a god awful replacement. But as a 3rd pair? Ghost and Maatta would have been a major boost to this team. Instead we got Gustafsson and Holl/petry.

Perron was never a burner and is now as slow as molasses on a winter morning in Michigan. He sometimes took dumb penalties when gassed at the end of a shift. But he worked his ass off, and provided strong board support defensively. He could plug in and provide depth scoring in the top 6 when there was an injury or things weren't working. And was a good mentor for the younger guys, and a glue guy in the locker room. There's value in that. Tank is not that depth guy.

I'd argue that if we kept Perron and Ghost, sat/waived, Holl, didn't sign Tank or Gus, and didn't trade Maatta (who played great for Utah, by the way...) then Detroit would have been a wildcard.

Gotta leave Holl/Petry outta this, they were both unrectifiable mistakes that we were stuck with. Cannot really remember, but didn't we have issues fitting Ghost under the cap? That's why we needed to get the cheaper version in Gus and because of that logjam on the backend? I think that is why we had to move out Olli, who I always liked. Anyway, we surely lost capability to move the puck by losing Ghost, but I do not think that accounts for the scared hockey we all of a sudden played under Lalonde, which lead to basically any bottom 6 player's production regressing. And Ed is maybe not yet on that level puck-moving wise, but close.

About Perron: I was actually shocked to see, that he got to 17/30 last yr without any wheels. But in Ottawa his production fell off of a cliff with 13pts in half a season and I think that was to be expected. I remember me posting that he cannot do more than 4th line and PP2 going forward. And I think we both agree that the Sens overpaid for that (4mil). Now on to Tarasenko: Between OTT and FLA he had 55pts last yr with 9pts in the postseason. I think he looked very decent with FLA, certainly not shot 5on5. And I remember that the reaction to Tank's signing was overwhelmingly positive.

So while I agree to an extent on Ghost, who seemed to be a cap casualty, cuz of other bad signings, I think Stevie did the right thing with Tank, but it just did not work out. Sometimes there are no red flags and a player just falls off the map.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Gotta leave Holl/Petry outta this, they were both unrectifiable mistakes that we were stuck with. Cannot really remember, but didn't we have issues fitting Ghost under the cap? That's why we needed to get the cheaper version in Gus and because of that logjam on the backend? I think that is why we had to move out Olli, who I always liked. Anyway, we surely lost capability to move the puck by losing Ghost, but I do not think that accounts for the scared hockey we all of a sudden played under Lalonde, which lead to basically any bottom 6 player's production regressing. And Ed is maybe not yet on that level puck-moving wise, but close.

About Perron: I was actually shocked to see, that he got to 17/30 last yr without any wheels. But in Ottawa his production fell off of a cliff with 13pts in half a season and I think that was to be expected. I remember me posting that he cannot do more than 4th line and PP2. And I think we both agree that the Sens overpaid for that. Now on to Tarasenko: Between OTT and FLA he had 55pts last yr with 9pts in the postseason. I think he looked very decent with FLA, certainly not shot 5on5. And I remember that the reaction to Tank's signing were overwhelmingly positive.

So while I agree to an extent on Ghost, who seemed to be a cap casualty, cuz of other bad signings, I think Stevie did the right thing with Tank, but it just did not work out. Sometimes there are no red flags and a player just falls off the map.

Regarding Detroit's bottom half of the lineup regressing: That's because we replaced Perron, Sprong, Fabbri, Walman and Ghost with terrible depth.

Regarding Ghost: Rumor was he wanted 3 years, Yzerman only offered him 2. Detroit had cap space to start the year.

Regarding Perron: See my post about how his wife was dealing with a difficult pregnancy and he took time off. When he returned full time he found his groove and scored a lot in the last 25-30 games of the year to help drag Ottawa into the postseason.

I agree that Lalonde was a huge problem in how he made the team play, but the personnel choices by Yzerman and co in the 2024 offseason made that even worse.

 

[SirloinUB]

Before last May/early June I said I was expecting this team to regress.

Given the cap space and Ghost, Sprong, Perron, and Kane were UFAs there just wasn't enough money to go around at the time.

 

[USAHockey97]

Regarding Detroit's bottom half of the lineup regressing: That's because we replaced Perron, Sprong, Fabbri, Walman and Ghost with terrible depth.

Regarding Ghost: Rumor was he wanted 3 years, Yzerman only offered him 2. Detroit had cap space to start the year.

Regarding Perron: See my post about how his wife was dealing with a difficult pregnancy and he took time off. When he returned full time he found his groove and scored a lot in the last 25-30 games of the year to help drag Ottawa into the postseason.

I agree that Lalonde was a huge problem in how he made the team play, but the personnel choices by Yzerman and co in the 2024 offseason made that even worse.

Exactly. Keeping Lalonde half a season was poor management and signing worse depth players is bad asset management. Couple those with making poor trades (Walman, Mrazek, Petry, etc…), not as good drafting in later rounds (since they didn’t get a top 3 pick they need to over perform here) and bad pro scouting/signings puts the Wings in a hard spot.

It’s going to be year 7. Yzerman has to step it up. He knows it, and I hope he does it.

 

[stillwater]

Why was the Mrazek trade a bad trade? Even the Petry trade wasn't a bad trade.

 

[SirloinUB]

Why was the Mrazek trade a bad trade? Even the Petry trade wasn't a bad trade.

Because everything is black and white. If it's not good, it must be bad. If Yzerman doesn't land an upgrade its because he "sat on his hands". Good players are good. Bad players are bad.

Shades of grey, nuance, and things not working out (for any number of reasons) are simply unwelcome here.

Perfection is the expectation and obviously the Arm Chair GMs could have and would have done better.

 

[jkutswings]

Why was the Mrazek trade a bad trade?

Holl:defense::Mrazek: goaltending

 

[USAHockey97]

Why was the Mrazek trade a bad trade? Even the Petry trade wasn't a bad trade.

Why not keep Lyon for less? What does Mrazek bring to the table? Does he improve the goaltending? Same with Petry. What did he improve?

Because everything is black and white. If it's not good, it must be bad. If Yzerman doesn't land an upgrade it’s because he "sat on his hands". Good players are good. Bad players are bad.

Shades of grey, nuance, and things not working out (for any number of reasons) are simply unwelcome here.

Perfection is the expectation and obviously the Arm Chair GMs can and would have done better.

Not black and white, rather progression or stagnation. Neither Mrazek or Petry improve the team. And no one is asking for perfection. I don’t think asking for improvement is a ridiculous ask.

 

[SirloinUB]

Why not keep Lyon for less? What does Mrazek bring to the table? Does he improve the goaltending? Same with Petry. What did he improve?

Not black and white, rather progression or stagnation. Neither Mrazek or Petry improve the team. And no one is asking for perfection. I don’t think asking for improvement is a ridiculous ask.

I completely disagree. This season is the only season the team hasn't improved under Yzerman's tenure and half the forum is ready to sac him. Seems pretty clear that linear progress, 100% of the time, is the only acceptable outcome to many. 1 small setback has been unacceptable to the (vocal) majority around here.

In reality, rebuilding never progresses 100% linearly - Setbacks are inevitable.

 

[USAHockey97]

I completely disagree. This season is the only season the team hasn't improved under Yzerman's tenure and half the forum is ready to sac him. Seems pretty clear that linear progress, 100% of the time, is the expectation of many. 1 small setback has been unacceptable to the (vocal) majority around here.

In reality, rebuilding never progresses 100% linearly - Setbacks are inevitable.

Of course. You are spot on with that. I would suggest it would be one thing if the step back was solely due to bringing up the youth. While it did factor into it, Yzerman’s FA signings definitely played a role in the step back as well.

And let me be clear. I do not want Yzerman fired. I just want him to be more aggressive.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I completely disagree. This season is the only season the team hasn't improved under Yzerman's tenure and half the forum is ready to sac him. Seems pretty clear that linear progress, 100% of the time, is the only acceptable outcome to many. 1 small setback has been unacceptable to the (vocal) majority around here.

In reality, rebuilding never progresses 100% linearly - Setbacks are inevitable.

“You want this team to improve? Too bad! I won’t let it!”

 

[jkutswings]

Of course. You are spot on with that. I would suggest it would be one thing if the step back was solely due to bringing up the youth. While it did factor into it, Yzerman’s FA signings definitely played a role in the step back as well.

And let me be clear. I do not want Yzerman fired. I just want him to be more aggressive.

Exactly. Kids making mistakes while they learn is normal. Continuing to trot boat anchor vets out there is not.

Compher, Gustafsson, and Tarasenko stink.
Holl, Petry, and Mrazek no longer belong in the NHL.