Your Rebuild Opinion? Next Move Coming?

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Excellent point.

Ill also add: What is the historical hit rate of 2nd rounders? 20% comes to my mind?

Well Yzerman has drafted 13 x 2nd rounders. Based off historical data, you could expect him to draft 2.6 NHL players.

We currently have Al Jo showing he is a player and several others on good development paths. Between Buch, Kiisk/Gibson, Plante, Augustine, Cleveland ( ), Buium, Wallinder, etc still in the mix.

That is just the 2nd round.

From there the odds of getting a player go down even further and we still have Becher, Finnie, Guimond, AnJo, Lombardi, and Mazur on top of Soderblom all on positive development tracks.

Look at the last 12-13 drafts. 2nd round hit rate is much better than 20% since methodology and technology has changed.

 

[Frk It]

Robert Mastrosimone, Ethan Phillips, Cooper Moore, Carter Gylander, Cross Hanas, Donovan Sebrango, Sam Strange, Alex Cotton, Kyle Aucoin, Kienan Draper, Chase Bradley, Sebastian Cossa, Shai Buium, Carter Mazur, Red Savage, Oscar Plandowski and Pasquale Zito have played a combined 6 NHL games. These guys are all D+3 to D+5 guys drafted out of NA.

Tyler Wright is gone and no longer employed by an NHL team for a reason.

We will literally have some NA drafted guys get games in next year. And then probably more and more over the next 2-3 years.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Its almost like you can't expect to find more than a player or two after the first round. And even if you do they take years to develop.

Ill point out Gibson, Mazur, Plante, Becher, Lombardi, and maybe Buium look to be on a decent path. That's not including Sebrango who probably won't be a guy but was still a useful asset for us.

I look at facts and draw conclusions. You look to make excuses. Somehow in those drafts we got the following guys from Europe who were not top 10 picks: Albert Johansson (2nd round), Elmer Söderblom (6th round), who have played a combined 108 NHL games.

I get it, you don’t see a problem here. Same as it ever was.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Tyler Wright is gone and no longer employed by an NHL team for a reason.

We will literally have some NA drafted guys get games in next year. And then probably more and more over the next 2-3 years.

You’ve literally been saying this for years. Maybe it will eventually become true, but your track record isn’t good.

 

[Frk It]

Look at the last 12-13 drafts. 2nd round hit rate is much better than 20% since methodology and technology has changed.

Most years you are doing well if there are 10 good players drafted in the 2nd round.

Meaning about 22/32 amount to nothing, which is like 70%. So maybe it is up to like 30% now, but it still not great, and people are really overestimating that to think otherwise.

You’ve literally been saying this for years. Maybe it will eventually become true, but your track record isn’t good.

????

You are very intentionally cherrypicking and you know it. Also no one cares about what happened 10+ years ago at this point.

Also I haven't been saying this for years... I never liked Tyler Wright.

 

[SirloinUB]

Look at the last 12-13 drafts. 2nd round hit rate is much better than 20% since methodology and technology has changed.

This source is saying 34% from 2010 onwards. NHL Draft Pick Probabilities


So you can expect 4 NHL players from all of Yzerman's 2nd round picks, but looking at all of them is flawed because you cannot expect a 2nd rounder to make it in less than 3-4 years (and truthfully you should have more patience than that after the first round) but lets put the cut off at 3 years.

Yzerman has made 7 x 2nd round draft picks that have been in the system for more than 3 years.

With this revised number that means you should expect him to have drafted 2 NHL players in the second round. We have 1. With Mazur looking like a second.

It seems the 2nd round drafting is on track

 

[Run the Jewels]

You are very intentionally cherrypicking and you know it. Also no one cares about what happened 10+ years ago at this point.

Also I haven't been saying this for years... I never liked Tyler Wright.

You have consistently defended Detroit’s NA scouting. This is not cherry picking, this has been your MO for a very long time.

 

[Frk It]

You have consistently defended Detroit’s NA scouting. This is not cherry picking, this has been your MO for a very long time.

Go back and look at what I said about the Rasmussen or Lane Zablocki picks.

Tyler Wright was ass and I said so many times.

 

[stillwater]

Because the results haven't changed at all yet. Mazur is the only NA guy that might be decent. Holland got Bertuzzi. Almost all other teams do way better than have. Knies is probably Toronto's best player this playoffs and they got him for a 2nd in Edvinsson's draft.

Obviously then, it would have been better if they'd passed on Raymond, Kasper, Seider, MBN, Edvinsson, ASP etc, etc and drafted NA players instead so their record of drafting NA guys would look better?

They're drafting predominantly European players ... that's not a secret. They're drafting these players because they think these players are better than their NA counterparts. It's hard to argue the success they've had doing so.

They still have Danielson, Max Plante, Cossa, and Augustine, drafted from NA.

Can you provide a list of the impeccable drafting Blues great NA picks from the 3rd round on?

 

[SirloinUB]

I look at facts and draw conclusions. You look to make excuses. Somehow in those drafts we got the following guys from Europe who were not top 10 picks: Albert Johansson (2nd round), Elmer Söderblom (6th round), who have played a combined 108 NHL games.

I get it, you don’t see a problem here. Same as it ever was.

Nah. I'm just trying to have realistic expectations.

Again, we have 7 x 2nd rounders that have been in the organization for more than 3 years (under Yzerman). With a league average hit rate you should be expecting 2 NHL players from that. We have AlJo. Mazur looks to be a 2nd.

Our non 1st round drafting has been on par with average while they have done excellent work in the 1st round.

 

[Winger98]

Its almost like you can't expect to find more than a player or two after the first round. And even if you do they take years to develop.

Ill point out Gibson, Mazur, Plante, Becher, Lombardi, Guimond and maybe Buium look to be on a decent path. That's not including Sebrango who probably won't be a guy but was still a useful asset for us.

It's funny that one thread I have folks who think we can't count on the kids because not every prospect makes it and in another thread I have people arguing that too many prospects don't make it.

 

[RRhoads]

Because the results haven't changed at all yet. Mazur is the only NA guy that might be decent. Holland got Bertuzzi. Almost all other teams do way better than have. Knies is probably Toronto's best player this playoffs and they got him for a 2nd in Edvinsson's draft.

We have several good prospects drafted from North America.

Finnie, Plante, Augustine, Cossa, Lombardi, and Danielson tracks very well, and in my opinion, all of them are as good, or better, prospects than Mazur, who you mentioned.

 

[RabidBadger]

Just going to chime in on Marner a little here. Always watch every Leaf's playoff game ... forever, this year is no different. I feel like if Marner signs here for the outlandish numbers posters are throwing around, he will be hated more than Stephen Weiss.

His regular season numbers are impressive, that cannot be denied.

But ... he's got no shot really, he's not a fast/great skater at all, he's a perimeter player who's always looking to pass instead of shoot. He almost never wins puck battles along the boards ... especially in the playoffs when the battles are 100% tougher than the regular season. He's been practically invisible this whole series VS Florida. Any line Florida throws out against him and Matthews are absolutely owning them. Matthew Knies for me has been the best player on that line.

I'm not a Marner hater ... I want to like him. He makes a dazzling highlight reel play now and then. He scored in OT in the 4 Nations and passed the puck to McDavid for the winning overtime goal, but really struggled for the other 99% of that tournament.

I can't really think of a good former Red Wing comp for him, so I don't know who to compare him to. He's not Datsyuk or Z. Those guys were smaller players who didn't shy away from the board battles.

I really feel like Marner taking up 13 or 14 million of the Wings cap would be disastrous.

I know you all want to point out his "stats", but watch him play. The posters on the Leaf's board have had it with him ... now, either they're all stupid, or biased or jaded (can't blame them for that) or they're more clued in after watching this guy his whole career, compared to Wings posters watching him a few times and looking at the points column.

Wings fans will despise this guy.

1000x yes to this. I've been beating this drum since the Marner chatter started. I have no clue how anyone thinks paying him a top 5 NHL salary is a good idea.

 

[newfy]

Robert Mastrosimone, Ethan Phillips, Cooper Moore, Carter Gylander, Cross Hanas, Donovan Sebrango, Sam Strange, Alex Cotton, Kyle Aucoin, Kienan Draper, Chase Bradley, Sebastian Cossa, Shai Buium, Carter Mazur, Red Savage, Oscar Plandowski and Pasquale Zito have played a combined 6 NHL games. These guys are all D+3 to D+5 guys drafted out of NA.

Yeah now do the same list for a bunch of other teams. Detroits NA drafting has been fine since Wright left. Lots of picks trending much better than Holland/Wright ever had. Detroit hasnt used any high firsts to really throw a name in there to make it look great though. Raymond, Seider, Kasper and Edvinsson really hold up the weight of the European drafting.

Yzerman also slow rolls prospects. Theyre barely at a point where hardly any of Yzermans later picks should even be making the league

 

[RedHawkDown]

Look at the last 12-13 drafts. 2nd round hit rate is much better than 20% since methodology and technology has changed.

In the 2020 draft we picked Wallinder, Niederbach and Hanas. These are 3 of 9 players in the 2nd to not play an NHL game. In 2019 we picked Tuomisto, Mastrisimone, and Johansson. Johansson is decent, but the other two were 2/8 players in the 2nd round to not play an NHL game.

Completely agree with you. People in here are so deluded lol.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Yeah now do the same list for a bunch of other teams. Detroits NA drafting has been fine since Wright left. Lots of picks trending much better than Holland/Wright ever had. Detroit hasnt used any high firsts to really throw a name in there to make it look great though. Raymond, Seider, Kasper and Edvinsson really hold up the weight of the European drafting.

Yzerman also slow rolls prospects. Theyre barely at a point where hardly any of Yzermans later picks should even be making the league

Give me a team name and I'll do it. I'll do it quickly for our competitors in our division and conference. Guys with a * are major contributors. Players who have played 10+ NHL games in the 2nd round and after:

Montreal:
2022: *Lane Hutson, Owen Beck
2021: Joshua Roy, Oliver Kapanen
2020: *Jakub Dobes
2019: Jayden Struble, Rafael Harvey-Pinard

Columbus:
2022: Luca Del Bel Belluz
2021: Malatesta
2020: Pyyhtia
2019: *Voronkov

Boston:
2022: Poitras
2020: *Lohrei
2019: Beecher

Capitals:
2019: Aliaksei Protas*, Brett Leason

And remember that every single one of these teams had far less picks than we did in 2019, 2020, 2021, etc. The caps especialy had 3-5 picks in the entire draft most years. We had an insane number of picks and screwed them up spectacularly. In 2020 alone, we had 11 picks after the 1st round and every single one of those players is likely a bust. In 2019 it was 10 picks.

Our 2nd round and later drafting under Yzerman has been closer to the bottom of the league than the middle, and it by no means is good/above average. Under Holland it was actually arguable better - got Bertuzzi, Athanasiou, Janmark, Hronek, which is far more than Yzerman can say so far. Though still much worse than teams that are actually good at it .

 

[SirloinUB]

Just going to chime in on Marner a little here. Always watch every Leaf's playoff game ... forever, this year is no different. I feel like if Marner signs here for the outlandish numbers posters are throwing around, he will be hated more than Stephen Weiss.

His regular season numbers are impressive, that cannot be denied.

But ... he's got no shot really, he's not a fast/great skater at all, he's a perimeter player who's always looking to pass instead of shoot. He almost never wins puck battles along the boards ... especially in the playoffs when the battles are 100% tougher than the regular season. He's been practically invisible this whole series VS Florida. Any line Florida throws out against him and Matthews are absolutely owning them. Matthew Knies for me has been the best player on that line.

I'm not a Marner hater ... I want to like him. He makes a dazzling highlight reel play now and then. He scored in OT in the 4 Nations and passed the puck to McDavid for the winning overtime goal, but really struggled for the other 99% of that tournament.

I can't really think of a good former Red Wing comp for him, so I don't know who to compare him to. He's not Datsyuk or Z. Those guys were smaller players who didn't shy away from the board battles.

I really feel like Marner taking up 13 or 14 million of the Wings cap would be disastrous.

I know you all want to point out his "stats", but watch him play. The posters on the Leaf's board have had it with him ... now, either they're all stupid, or biased or jaded (can't blame them for that) or they're more clued in after watching this guy his whole career, compared to Wings posters watching him a few times and looking at the points column.

Wings fans will despise this guy.

Thanks for posting this. Within the context of moving the rebuild forward, this is more interesting to me than bitching about 2nd-7th round draft picks that are a long shot at best.


I like the idea of signing Marner. Here are some thoughts in support of the idea:

• This board has talked ad nausem about a need for a elite talent. He is a consistent 90-100 point player. That's a kind of pure talent we haven't seen since Pav/Z. If not him, when/where else can we find this talent level?
• Looking at the rest of the UFA market we can either over pay for a 60 point player (bennett/ehlers) or give 4-5 million more to Marner and land a 95+ point guy. If im overpaying, I want to do it for the best talent available.
• Despite the criticisms he's still essentially a point/game in playoffs... Is he perfect? No but point/game is still damn good hockey
• Despite that egregious turnover last night Marner has received selke votes over the years. He is more than just a 90+ point guy, he has some solid two way play in him.
• I hope (maybe naively) that getting him out of the bubble that is Toronto would take the pressure off just enough to squeeze a little more out of him
• Yzerman has targeted a lot of high character/high compete guys. Their attitudes and approach could rub off on Marner. If not, I think we can afford to give up a bit of compete in exchange for pure talent.

I'd rather have someone like Rantanen at 12.5, or Draisaitl at 14 or Pastrnak or Nylander or several other guys but they're not available.

To me the strongest argument against signing Marner would be the 2026 UFA class with Eichel, Connor and others but what are the odds any of them make it to free agency. Ultimately, I'd sign Marner if I can because a bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush.

I appreciate that he is imperfect but right now he seems like the best (realistically available option) that can bump everyone down a slot.

 

[minimal]

You only go after Marner if you take the lessons of his almost 10 years of playoff failures to heart and you pair him with a shooter and physicality. We'll see what he turns out to be, but MBN and Marner seem like an ideal pairing.

 

[SirloinUB]

You only go after Marner if you take the lessons of his almost 10 years of playoff failures to heart and you pair him with a shooter and physicality. We'll see what he turns out to be, but MBN and Marner seem like an ideal pairing.

Throw larkin in the middle and you have a crasher/banger/shooter in MBN, two high motor guys in MBN/Larkin, and a pure skill/defensive winger in Marner. I like it. We could move Raymond down making the 2nd line that much more lethal.

MBN Larkin Marner
DBC Kasper Raymond

 

[minimal]

Throw larkin in the middle and you have a crasher/banger/shooter in MBN, two high motor guys in MBN/Larkin, and a pure skill/defensive winger in Marner. I like it. We could move Raymond down making the 2nd line that much more lethal.

MBN Larkin Marner
DBC Kasper Raymond

That for sure sounds fantastic, but can't help but feel like this is pie in the sky. Even if we pull Marner (doubtful to me), I don't think we see MBN on this team for another year or so, not to mention on the top line.

 

[datsyukfan]

Has Marner played off wing at all?

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Throw larkin in the middle and you have a crasher/banger/shooter in MBN, two high motor guys in MBN/Larkin, and a pure skill/defensive winger in Marner. I like it. We could move Raymond down making the 2nd line that much more lethal.

MBN Larkin Marner
DBC Kasper Raymond

Top ling winger when? In 2028 for MBN?

 

[SirloinUB]

Top ling winger when? In 2028 for MBN?

Sure.

Either way I’d like to add marner

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Sure.

Either way I’d like to add marner

I dont see any scenario he would sign with Detroit. He is from Toronto. They are a lot better. Can offer the same money. Just had a kid. Literally why would he come here? I wish he would though but it's a pipe dream...

 

[Winger98]

I dont see any scenario he would sign with Detroit. He is from Toronto. They are a lot better. Can offer the same money. Just had a kid. Literally why would he come here? I wish he would though but it's a pipe dream...

I can see him leaving Toronto if they don't win it this year, but I would still be surprised if he came to Detroit.