Your Rebuild Opinion? Next Move Coming?

[RedHawkDown]

Please note where I said anything relating to this sentence. Without getting into the whole Yzerman debate, which IMO is much more complex than you and others are making it out to be, I'm literally just talking about the Capitals and PLD. For a team trying to open a Cup window, I maintain that we would have collectively lost our shit at taking on PLD's contract. Good for the Caps who took a risk and had it pay off for at least a year.

I guess I just disagree. Taking risks is exactly what a team trying to open a cup window needs to do. Otherwise the window will never open. In the modern NHL, it is impossible to build only through the draft unless you luck into a MacKinnon/McDavid/Drai/Makar talent. Essentially zero teams have done this, other than Boston who drafted extremely well in the later rounds to get a Bergeron and Marchand.

 

[RedHawkDown]

I wouldn't have called him overpaid this year, but he also decided to show up. The guy has a long history of apparent motivation issues and not living up to his abilities, and bottomed out in LA. That's not something I really want around the Wings. At least not right now where he'd be expected to be one of our main guys.

He seems to have ended up in a situation that's good for him, so wish the guy luck.

I agree, it's a risk that worked out. Taking some risks without giving up massive assets (which is what Washington did) is exactly what this team needs to do.

 

[schuelma24]

I guess I just disagree. Taking risks is exactly what a team trying to open a cup window needs to do. Otherwise the window will never open. In the modern NHL, it is impossible to build only through the draft unless you luck into a MacKinnon/McDavid/Drai/Makar talent. Essentially zero teams have done this, other than Boston who drafted extremely well in the later rounds to get a Bergeron and Marchand.

I don't disagree with taking risks, but I don't think PLD is a good example of one to take.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I guess I just disagree. Taking risks is exactly what a team trying to open a cup window needs to do. Otherwise the window will never open. In the modern NHL, it is impossible to build only through the draft unless you luck into a MacKinnon/McDavid/Drai/Makar talent. Essentially zero teams have done this, other than Boston who drafted extremely well in the later rounds to get a Bergeron and Marchand.

Colorado, Edmonton, and Boston made savvy trades and free agent signings on top of their drafting stars.

We’re going on Yzerman’s 7th draft this year. It’s time to be aggressive and start making those trades. This core is ready for more and management needs to support them, not hold them back.

 

[RedHawkDown]

I don't disagree with taking risks, but I don't think PLD is a good example of one to take.

Sure, I don't necessarily disagree with that. It was one meh-ish move among a series of fantastic (Strome, Thompson, Roy, Chychrun) moves. Point is, Washington was aggressive without giving up major assets.

 

[better Red than Dead]

One of the biggest issues with Yzerman has been that when he was hired he got to “inherit “ a lot of the personnel and he made some changes but kept the essential core. When he was hired in a Tampa he basically had to bring in everyone, including the scouting dept. so he’s inherited Holland’s brain trust from the last 10yrs or so. I wish he had cleaned house when he was hired and hire his own team.

 

[Winger98]

I agree, it's a risk that worked out. Taking some risks without giving up massive assets (which is what Washington did) is exactly what this team needs to do.

Don't disagree with making moves, though I don't think we have been in a spot to really push those moves. When we look at Washington and St. Louis (and, imo, even Montreal) they are just in a different spot to make moves. Their prospect pools were never zeroed out like ours, they had more tradeable assets on their parent clubs, and with St. Louis and Washington they had better/more vets to build around.

I look at Detroit, and the past five years has been just rebuilding the prospect pool. Only now is it something I think we can not only pull some guys from to add to Detroit, but also draw pieces from to flesh out trades.

And it's now I think we see the Wings potentially turning that corner, as we've seen Ottawa try with their deals for Chychrun, Debrincat (neither of which really worked), and now Cozens. And how we're seeing Buffalo try with dealing for Norris and seemingly wanting roster upgrades for other deals they make.

But then Larkin may be forcing his way out, so who knows. I don't think Larkin forcing a trade is crippling, but I think it does push us back a bit.

 

[SirloinUB]

Colorado, Edmonton, and Boston made savvy trades and free agent signings on top of their drafting stars.

We’re going on Yzerman’s 7th draft this year. It’s time to be aggressive and start making those trades. This core is ready for more and management needs to support them, not hold them back.

I absolutely agree with the bolded now.

Prior to this point in time I do not think he should have been making aggressive "win now" moves. There are some shades of grey in that (low cost win now moves, ie. giving up a 2nd + 3rd for Broberg and Holloway would have been great) but this team wasn't ready to kick it in to gear before now.

When Yzerman got hired he told you he was going to build through the draft and that is not a 3-5 year process, especially considering where the Red Wings were at.

Prior to this season only two of his drafted prospects had full time roles. To demand "win now" moves earlier would have been a fundamental pivoted from the plan. We were in the foundation building period.

To me the clock starts now.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Don't disagree with making moves, though I don't think we have been in a spot to really push those moves. When we look at Washington and St. Louis (and, imo, even Montreal) they are just in a different spot to make moves. Their prospect pools were never zeroed out like ours, they had more tradeable assets on their parent clubs, and with St. Louis and Washington they had better/more vets to build around.

I look at Detroit, and the past five years has been just rebuilding the prospect pool. Only now is it something I think we can not only pull some guys from to add to Detroit, but also draw pieces from to flesh out trades.

And it's now I think we see the Wings potentially turning that corner, as we've seen Ottawa try with their deals for Chychrun, Debrincat (neither of which really worked), and now Cozens. And how we're seeing Buffalo try with dealing for Norris and seemingly wanting roster upgrades for other deals they make.

But then Larkin may be forcing his way out, so who knows. I don't think Larkin forcing a trade is crippling, but I think it does push us back a bit.

I don't know if this is true IMO. Washington hasn't drafted high since Ovechkin, basically. Until Dvorsky in 2008, St. Louis had zero top 10 picks since Alex Pietrangelo in 2008, and usually only had a late 1st or no 1st. Before Leonard in 2023, Forsberg in 2011 was Washington's only top 15 pick since Karl Alzner.

The difference is that these teams drafted better in the later rounds, and regardless of prospect pool leveraged their picks and existing talent to make moves.

There is really no excuse for the lack of action by Yzerman since 2019.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I absolutely agree with the bolded now.

Prior to this point in time I do not think he should have been making aggressive "win now" moves. There are some shades of grey in that (low cost win now moves, ie. giving up a 2nd + 3rd for Broberg and Holloway would have been great) but this team wasn't ready to kick it in to gear before now.

When Yzerman got hired he told you he was going to build through the draft and that is not a 3-5 year process, especially considering where the Red Wings were at.

Prior to this season only two of his drafted prospects had full time roles. To demand "win now" moves earlier would have been a fundamental pivoted from the plan. We were in the foundation building period.

To me the clock starts now.

The misconception of what “win-now” moves are on this forum is something I’d like to change.

Holland and his 1st and 2nd round picks for a pending UFA is a win-now move. More often than not a team loses the asset after 1 or 2 seasons of use in win-now moves. Erik Cole for the pick that became Hintz, for instance.

Trading picks or prospects for a guy that’s going to stick around 3+ years is not win-now. That’s team building. We need to see more of this throughout the year, any opportunity we get. Sam Bennett was a mid season trade for a bag of pucks. Moves like that create winners.

 

[Winger98]

I don't know if this is true IMO. Washington hasn't drafted high since Ovechkin, basically. Until Dvorsky in 2008, St. Louis had zero top 10 picks since Alex Pietrangelo in 2008, and usually only had a late 1st or no 1st. Before Leonard in 2023, Forsberg in 2011 was Washington's only top 15 pick since Karl Alzner.

The difference is that these teams drafted better in the later rounds, and regardless of prospect pool leveraged their picks and existing talent to make moves.

There is really no excuse for the lack of action by Yzerman since 2019.

It's not regardless of prospect pool. You have to have the players to deal, and enough players that you feel comfortable subtracting from that pool to make moves. Yeah, those teams did a lot better job drafting than us from 2010-2018, they got a bunch of NHLers out of it they either hung onto or moved.

But look at our list. We got...Larkin and Hronek (who we leveraged into ASP and I don't know which 2nd rounder). After then it's...Bert, Jarnkrok, and Mantha? Then AA, Janmark?, Mrazek? Are we going to count Sheahan? Guys who have carved out careers but weren't really good.

If we wanted that five year rebuild where we were potentially competing again, we needed to have started in like 2012. That's closer to what Washington and St. Louis are lately, and where we still had pieces to build around if we were a little smart and a little lucky.

 

[Run the Jewels]

I don’t really view Washington as a comparable, as the last time we had an Ovechkin level player was Lidstrom and he retired in 2012. I think St Louis and Carolina are good comparables for what we can reasonably expect.

The Blues had Pietrangelo and Erik Johnson as top 5 picks, but their North American scouting has been very good: Jaden Schwartz, Joel Edmundsom, Jordan Binnington, Colton Parayko, Jake Walman (Holland could not develop a top 4 dman, hence the Leddy and Walman trades), Ivan Barbashev, Robbie Fabbri, Vince Dunn, Jordan Kyrou, Tage Thompson, Robert Thomas, and Jake Neighbors have all been drafted by St Louis over the past 15 years.

The Canes have had 3 top-5 picks and 5 top-10 picks, but have never drafted a truly elite player. They’ve had success drafting out of Europe like we have, but again their North American scouting has been very good. Here are their guys who were not top 5 picks:

Jeff Skinner, Justin Faulk, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Warren Fogele, Alex Nedeljovic (had to tradde for him since Holland couldn’t draft and develop a goalie since Howard), Jake Bean, Morgan Geekie, and Seth Jarvis. This doesn’t include Noah Hanafin, Andrei Svechnikov or Elias Lindholm.

So teams who have never had an all-time great player and have had success were very good at drafting out of North America, while our drafting and development has been crap. I have pointed this out, but people tend to get upset when I bring this up. We can’t be as bad as we’ve been drafting out of the biggest talent pool in the world. Has Yzerman fixed this? I have my doubts. This has been a problem going back to Holland and Jim Nill. This is my one area of pessimism with Detroit’s rebuild.

 

[RedHawkDown]

It's not regardless of prospect pool. You have to have the players to deal, and enough players that you feel comfortable subtracting from that pool to make moves. Yeah, those teams did a lot better job drafting than us from 2010-2018, they got a bunch of NHLers out of it they either hung onto or moved.

But look at our list. We got...Larkin and Hronek (who we leveraged into ASP and I don't know which 2nd rounder). After then it's...Bert, Jarnkrok, and Mantha? Then AA, Janmark?, Mrazek? Are we going to count Sheahan? Guys who have carved out careers but weren't really good.

If we wanted that five year rebuild where we were potentially competing again, we needed to have started in like 2012. That's closer to what Washington and St. Louis are lately, and where we still had pieces to build around if we were a little smart and a little lucky.

It is regardless lol. They added Strome for free. They added Chychrun for peanuts. St Louis added Holloway for peanuts, and Broberg too. As Ogee mentioned, FLA added Bennett for peanuts. Devon Toews was added for 2 2nds. Teams add significant players all the time without trading top prospects or top picks. It's called good pro scouting.

 

[RedHawkDown]

I don’t really view Washington as a comparable, as the last time we had an Ovechkin level player was Lidstrom and he retired in 2012. I think St Louis and Carolina are good comparables for what we can reasonably expect.

The Blues had Pietrangelo and Erik Johnson as top 5 picks, but their North American scouting has been very good: Jaden Schwartz, Joel Edmundsom, Jordan Binnington, Colton Parayko, Jake Walman (Holland could not develop a top 4 dman, hence the Leddy and Walman trades), Ivan Barbashev, Robbie Fabbri, Vince Dunn, Jordan Kyrou, Tage Thompson, Robert Thomas, and Jake Neighbors have all been drafted by St Louis over the past 15 years.

The Canes have had 3 top-5 picks and 5 top-10 picks, but have never drafted a truly elite player. They’ve had success drafting out of Europe like we have, but again their North American scouting has been very good. Here are their guys who were not top 5 picks:

Jeff Skinner, Justin Faulk, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Warren Fogele, Alex Nedeljovic (had to tradde for him since Holland couldn’t draft and develop a goalie since Howard), Jake Bean, Morgan Geekie, and Seth Jarvis. This doesn’t include Noah Hanafin, Andrei Svechnikov or Elias Lindholm.

So teams who have never had an all-time great player and have had success were very good at drafting out of North America, while our drafting and development has been crap. I have pointed this out, but people tend to get upset when I bring this up. We can’t be as bad as we’ve been drafting out of the biggest talent pool in the world. Has Yzerman fixed this? I have my doubts. This has been a problem going back to Holland and Jim Nill. This is my one area of pessimism with Detroit’s rebuild.

Very good points. People will keep parroting that "most 2nd round picks never make the NHL", but the likelihood of almost none of your 2nd/3rd/4th round picks making the NHL - like with Holland, and so far also Yzerman - is also astronomically low.

 

[stillwater]

Just going to chime in on Marner a little here. Always watch every Leaf's playoff game ... forever, this year is no different. I feel like if Marner signs here for the outlandish numbers posters are throwing around, he will be hated more than Stephen Weiss.

His regular season numbers are impressive, that cannot be denied.

But ... he's got no shot really, he's not a fast/great skater at all, he's a perimeter player who's always looking to pass instead of shoot. He almost never wins puck battles along the boards ... especially in the playoffs when the battles are 100% tougher than the regular season. He's been practically invisible this whole series VS Florida. Any line Florida throws out against him and Matthews are absolutely owning them. Matthew Knies for me has been the best player on that line.

I'm not a Marner hater ... I want to like him. He makes a dazzling highlight reel play now and then. He scored in OT in the 4 Nations and passed the puck to McDavid for the winning overtime goal, but really struggled for the other 99% of that tournament.

I can't really think of a good former Red Wing comp for him, so I don't know who to compare him to. He's not Datsyuk or Z. Those guys were smaller players who didn't shy away from the board battles.

I really feel like Marner taking up 13 or 14 million of the Wings cap would be disastrous.

I know you all want to point out his "stats", but watch him play. The posters on the Leaf's board have had it with him ... now, either they're all stupid, or biased or jaded (can't blame them for that) or they're more clued in after watching this guy his whole career, compared to Wings posters watching him a few times and looking at the points column.

Wings fans will despise this guy.

 

[Winger98]

I don’t really view Washington as a comparable, as the last time we had an Ovechkin level player was Lidstrom and he retired in 2012. I think St Louis and Carolina are good comparables for what we can reasonably expect.

The Blues had Pietrangelo and Erik Johnson as top 5 picks, but their North American scouting has been very good: Jaden Schwartz, Joel Edmundsom, Jordan Binnington, Colton Parayko, Jake Walman (Holland could not develop a top 4 dman, hence the Leddy and Walman trades), Ivan Barbashev, Robbie Fabbri, Vince Dunn, Jordan Kyrou, Tage Thompson, Robert Thomas, and Jake Neighbors have all been drafted by St Louis over the past 15 years.

The Canes have had 3 top-5 picks and 5 top-10 picks, but have never drafted a truly elite player. They’ve had success drafting out of Europe like we have, but again their North American scouting has been very good. Here are their guys who were not top 5 picks:

Jeff Skinner, Justin Faulk, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Warren Fogele, Alex Nedeljovic (had to tradde for him since Holland couldn’t draft and develop a goalie since Howard), Jake Bean, Morgan Geekie, and Seth Jarvis. This doesn’t include Noah Hanafin, Andrei Svechnikov or Elias Lindholm.

So teams who have never had an all-time great player and have had success were very good at drafting out of North America, while our drafting and development has been crap. I have pointed this out, but people tend to get upset when I bring this up. We can’t be as bad as we’ve been drafting out of the biggest talent pool in the world. Has Yzerman fixed this? I have my doubts. This has been a problem going back to Holland and Jim Nill. This is my one area of pessimism with Detroit’s rebuild.

I think this is the issue people have with it. We are only now to the point where we should likely be seeing the 2nd and later rounders making a mark from the start of Yzerman's drafting here. The 2019 and 2020 drafts look pretty rough in general, though Albert and Elmer softened that blow a bit this year.
Though I'm also in the camp that while I'd like to see more success out of north america, we haven't invested a lot of high draft capital in it, and as long as we keep pulling 2 or 3 good NHLers out of the drafts...I have a hard time really caring what continent those NHLers are coming from.

 

[Run the Jewels]

I have a hard time really caring what continent those NHLers are coming from.

This is exactly what I’m talking about. Detroit has spent plenty of good draft capital on North Americans in general and Canadians in particular over the past 30 years and it’s largely been a disaster. So it’s great you don’t care about the continent, that doesn’t change facts and those facts are going to determine the success of the rebuild.

If you want to continue to bury your head in the sand that’s fine I guess.

 

[SirloinUB]

This is exactly what I’m talking about. Detroit has spent plenty of good draft capital on North Americans in general and Canadians in particular over the past 30 years and it’s largely been a disaster. So it’s great you don’t care about the continent, that doesn’t change facts and those facts are going to determine the success of the rebuild.

If you want to continue to bury your head in the sand that’s fine I guess.

I don't understand why you're painting a 30 year window with one brush. Yes the drafting got ugly under Holland. Its part of why I have patience for Yzerman's "foundation building" the last 6 years.

We now have a new GM, a new director of amateur scouting, a new chief amateur scouting, and some new scouts.

 

[RedHawkDown]

I don't understand why you're painting a 30 year window with one brush. Yes the drafting got ugly under Holland. Its part of why I have patience for Yzerman's "foundation building" the last 6 years.

We now have a new GM, a new director of amateur scouting, a new chief amateur scouting, and some new scouts.

Because the results haven't changed at all yet. Mazur is the only NA guy that might be decent. Holland got Bertuzzi. Almost all other teams do way better than have. Knies is probably Toronto's best player this playoffs and they got him for a 2nd in Edvinsson's draft.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I think the best way to fix the NA scouting is to hire me as WHL scout, @newfy for the OHL and @Frk It for QMJHL. Also bring in @Rzombo4 prez to consult on USHL and NCAA scouting.

 

[Run the Jewels]

I don't understand why you're painting a 30 year window with one brush. Yes the drafting got ugly under Holland. Its part of why I have patience for Yzerman's "foundation building" the last 6 years.

We now have a new GM, a new director of amateur scouting, a new chief amateur scouting, and some new scouts.

Robert Mastrosimone, Ethan Phillips, Cooper Moore, Carter Gylander, Cross Hanas, Donovan Sebrango, Sam Strange, Alex Cotton, Kyle Aucoin, Kienan Draper, Chase Bradley, Sebastian Cossa, Shai Buium, Carter Mazur, Red Savage, Oscar Plandowski and Pasquale Zito have played a combined 6 NHL games. These guys are all D+3 to D+5 guys drafted out of NA.

 

[Run the Jewels]

I think the best way to fix the NA scouting is to hire me as WHL scout, @newfy for the OHL and @Frk It for QMJHL. Also bring in @Rzombo4 prez to consult on USHL and NCAA scouting.

Why you doing @Bench like that?

 

[SirloinUB]

I think this is the issue people have with it. We are only now to the point where we should likely be seeing the 2nd and later rounders making a mark from the start of Yzerman's drafting here. The 2019 and 2020 drafts look pretty rough in general, though Albert and Elmer softened that blow a bit this year.
Though I'm also in the camp that while I'd like to see more success out of north america, we haven't invested a lot of high draft capital in it, and as long as we keep pulling 2 or 3 good NHLers out of the drafts...I have a hard time really caring what continent those NHLers are coming from.

Excellent point.

Ill also add: What is the historical hit rate of 2nd rounders? 20% comes to my mind?

Well Yzerman has drafted 13 x 2nd rounders. Based off historical data, you could expect him to draft 2.6 NHL players.

We currently have Al Jo showing he is a player and several others on good development paths. Between Buch, Kiisk/Gibson, Plante, Augustine, Cleveland ( ), Buium, Wallinder, etc still in the mix.

That is just the 2nd round.

From there the odds of getting a player go down even further and we still have Becher, Finnie, Guimond, AnJo, Lombardi, and Mazur on top of Soderblom all on positive development tracks.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Why you doing @Bench like that?

Bench can scout goalies in LNAH.

 

[SirloinUB]

Robert Mastrosimone, Ethan Phillips, Cooper Moore, Carter Gylander, Cross Hanas, Donovan Sebrango, Sam Strange, Alex Cotton, Kyle Aucoin, Kienan Draper, Chase Bradley, Sebastian Cossa, Shai Buium, Carter Mazur, Red Savage, Oscar Plandowski and Pasquale Zito have played a combined 6 NHL games. These guys are all D+4 or D+5 guys drafted out of NA.

Its almost like you can't expect to find more than a player or two after the first round. And even if you do they take years to develop.

Ill point out Gibson, Mazur, Plante, Becher, Lombardi, Guimond and maybe Buium look to be on a decent path. That's not including Sebrango who probably won't be a guy but was still a useful asset for us.