- Aug 4, 2005
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Lots of speculation in recent weeks.. it would be interesting to hear from fans from this type of forum, what their expectations truly were in June of 2019, when the Draft Rebuild was announced??
Most hockey people think they’re actually ahead of schedule. Especially without having any Lottery picks. Unfortunately that’s not always how expectations work.
Generally, if you’re on this type of site, you’re more of an in-depth fan than those just reading Mlive or the Detroit News everyday, like your typical casual fans…
Problem is, there’s a lot more of those casual fans, than those who know the sport in-depth. More than any other major sport, because frankly, most of its fans couldn’t tie a pair of skates. Including in Canada, which might surprise some Americans.
Like it or not, good or bad, right or wrong, the pressure is on Steve Yzerman and the current regime to start delivering. At least more pressure than we’ve ever seen on Yzerman.
Or is it??
That I’ll get to in a second, because some of what I’m hearing, would be the Detroit Red Wings buying time for the front office to complete the rebuild..
The big problem is, they really aren’t done with their rebuild. We’re barely watching the first wave of prospects entering the NHL. Changing course today would be catastrophic for their long term success.
A couple of quick facts…
A “GREAT DRAFT” is getting ONLY THREE 200+ game NHLers. A “GOOD” Draft? One or two.
It then takes an average of 4 years before those prospects play NHL games. 5-6 years for most NHL quality Dmen.
That’s just to play in the NHL. That’s why we’re only now seeing the first big wave of prospects getting ready to become everyday NHLers.
At best, after 6 years, they’d have about 6 players already playing at various levels, on their NHL team. Currently there’s 6 Yzerman drafted players, correct?
That really is best case scenario. The fact they have 4 of those kids who look like they’re of the “Star Variety” is a huge compliment to their drafting strategy. The system is also loaded. All done with only ONE Top 5 pick.
All that said, your normal rebuild needs more than what they have to be sustainable long-term. Even though they’ve yet to have a top pick bust on them. The complete opposite is happening. They’re hitting on their top picks. Kasper just being the newest example and there’s several more to come.
The good thing is, internally, including ownership, Detroit truly believes they need another 2-3 years to keep collecting high-end prospects, and real importantly, ease a pretty large number of prospects into the lineup over the next 2 years. Next year likely being the biggest influx.
What happens with every rebuild, the year they bring in the most rookies, etc??
Teams take a significant step backwards in the standings. Just look at Ottawa and the NJ Devils in recent years. The old “One step backwards, two steps forward” saying is very true.
Not to mention, depending on how the young players do next season, you almost always need a year or two, to make a couple of trades and signings, to really call the rebuild “Complete.” To “even out” the roster.
All of the trades and UFA signings since 2019, minus Debrincat, have been of the “filler player” variety. It’s pointless to judge those signing because of two things really.
First of all, no great free agents ever sign with rebuilding teams, and secondly, they haven’t had the ammunition to make good core trades because they need every high pick they’ve had.
Finally, and very importantly, where the media, podcasters, and the impatient casual fans go terribly wrong??
You quite literally, do NOT want to win during your rebuilding years!!! That’s why you don’t make core trades yet, sign top free agents, or go crazy at any trade deadline.. It’s why Yzerman did nothing at the deadline..
You lose all leverage in the draft if you win too much. You’ll be picking 15th-20th rather than Top 10, and extending the rebuild time. Last year, and likely this year as well, that’s been the case. They actually won too much.
Unfortunately in many ways, the playoff run last season has damaged their rebuild, more than helped it.
It created ridiculous expectations this year from the core media and fans. There’s a lot more of those casual fans, now demanding results, than there are hockey folks who understand what a rebuild needs to look like, and how time consuming a rebuild is.
Well, from what I’m hearing, it’s pretty likely Detroit is set to almost come out and announce, they’ll likely be taking a step backwards next season, as the roster will see an influx of rookies. If they don’t announce it, they’ll certainly leak that being the case.
Not a bad year to go backwards though. Not with Gavin McKenna at the top of the draft, as well as a Swedish kid named Ivar Stenberg, brother of Blues prospect Otto Stenberg.
You might be a little disappointed they internally expect to go backwards next year, or are now asking yourself, how they’ll be able to do so and have Yzerman survive this mounting pressure??
That’s a big question and why many are hearing what we are hearing….
Basically…. Don’t be surprised if right after the season, but more likely, right after the draft, if Yzerman steps down as General Manager and moves into the pretty much vacated spot of Jimmy Devellano, as President of Hockey Operations, and they name Kris Draier the new General Manager.
In doing so, the speculation is, they believe that will buy them another 3 years (Honeymoon for Draper) to complete their rebuild, and give the team it’s best chance to win consistently over the next 10-15 years. Hopefully adding another 2 very high-end prospects.
For those who don’t know, after this draft, there’s 3 Drafts in a row with a Franchise altering player at the top of the draft. MCKenna in 2026, followed by DuPont in 2027 and a kid named Maddox Schultz I’ve watched several times this year, heading the 2028 draft.
The expectation from the front office and ownership is, 2 more years of Top 10 picks, and then a big jump in the 2027-2028 season, as their big wave of prospects will be entering their 2nd and 3rd NHL season. Where we historically see the big jump.
If they play the kids next year and have a great season, even better. That will mean more of their kids are immediate impact NHL players. In 2027-2028 ASP, Edvinsson and Seider will also be entering their big prime years. Same with Kasper, Raymond and others up front.
That’s the speculation I’m hearing from scouts and evaluators. That Detroit isn’t ready to call the rebuild over, but the unexpected expectations after last season, is likely going to cause some changes in the front office. Mostly to buy time, they feel they still need.
Just while I’m on here tonight, I can say, I’ve heard the Larkin speculation but nobody has heard it from any legit source.
I will say, it does happen. Players from bad teams go to these events like 4Nations, the Olympics, etc, and they do get recruited by other players, or figure out they want to play more meaningful hockey sooner than their team will be playing at that level, etc..
I doubt he actually approached Yzerman prior to the deadline, and if he does this summer, I’m sure they won’t have any problems accommodating his request.
If he really thinks Columbus or LA is his best option for his career, I’m sure Yzerman or Draper will make him happy. They won’t go out of their way to plead with him to stay, if he wants out. That I can say with absolute certainty. There were more than a couple in that front office who would’ve preferred to trade Larkin than sign him last year.
After his 4Nations performance, they can name their price in many ways. It would cost LA Byfield, plus 2 other Grade A assets, and Columbus can expect to pay a massive price as well, if it’s so important to play with Werenski down in Columbus. Carolina? Same thing. All 3 of those teams have plenty to offer in a trade for a Larkin.
As for what they might do this summer?? I do think they’ll look at some of the arbitration eligible players, especially Dmen like York, Byrum, K’Andre Miller, and Samberg, and see if they’re available. Those teams have no choice but to sign long term contracts or trade those players this summer. They can’t afford any of them going to arbitration. The player will win a massive 1-2 year deal, and walk away for free after the contract. If there’s one of those they’d like more than others, it’s likely Samberg but I think they’d like to get their hands on a Cam York as well. He’d obviously come much cheaper.
The big thing to watch for is Yzerman though. I’ve heard it from several people that he’s not going to sit there and take all the negative press. While I doubt he just up and quits, taking Jimmy Devellano’s role he had for 25 years, is one of the best jobs in the sport. Running the Detroit Red Wings NEVER being able to be fired??
It’s the goal for these former players. They love the GM jobs too but the ultimate job is what Shanahan, Sakic and Blake now have. From the day Stevie was brought back, that’s been the plan. That he’d be the manager and after the team is back on firm ground, he’d take Jimmy D’s spot as President. The timing probably couldn’t be much better because the media and those casual fans I talked about, will automatically give Draper 3 years before putting any pressure on him to perform.
It’ll be an interesting beginning of the summer for Detroit. I’d call it a 50/50 chance Draper is the Manager after the Draft.
Most hockey people think they’re actually ahead of schedule. Especially without having any Lottery picks. Unfortunately that’s not always how expectations work.
Generally, if you’re on this type of site, you’re more of an in-depth fan than those just reading Mlive or the Detroit News everyday, like your typical casual fans…
Problem is, there’s a lot more of those casual fans, than those who know the sport in-depth. More than any other major sport, because frankly, most of its fans couldn’t tie a pair of skates. Including in Canada, which might surprise some Americans.
Like it or not, good or bad, right or wrong, the pressure is on Steve Yzerman and the current regime to start delivering. At least more pressure than we’ve ever seen on Yzerman.
Or is it??
That I’ll get to in a second, because some of what I’m hearing, would be the Detroit Red Wings buying time for the front office to complete the rebuild..
The big problem is, they really aren’t done with their rebuild. We’re barely watching the first wave of prospects entering the NHL. Changing course today would be catastrophic for their long term success.
A couple of quick facts…
A “GREAT DRAFT” is getting ONLY THREE 200+ game NHLers. A “GOOD” Draft? One or two.
It then takes an average of 4 years before those prospects play NHL games. 5-6 years for most NHL quality Dmen.
That’s just to play in the NHL. That’s why we’re only now seeing the first big wave of prospects getting ready to become everyday NHLers.
At best, after 6 years, they’d have about 6 players already playing at various levels, on their NHL team. Currently there’s 6 Yzerman drafted players, correct?
That really is best case scenario. The fact they have 4 of those kids who look like they’re of the “Star Variety” is a huge compliment to their drafting strategy. The system is also loaded. All done with only ONE Top 5 pick.
All that said, your normal rebuild needs more than what they have to be sustainable long-term. Even though they’ve yet to have a top pick bust on them. The complete opposite is happening. They’re hitting on their top picks. Kasper just being the newest example and there’s several more to come.
The good thing is, internally, including ownership, Detroit truly believes they need another 2-3 years to keep collecting high-end prospects, and real importantly, ease a pretty large number of prospects into the lineup over the next 2 years. Next year likely being the biggest influx.
What happens with every rebuild, the year they bring in the most rookies, etc??
Teams take a significant step backwards in the standings. Just look at Ottawa and the NJ Devils in recent years. The old “One step backwards, two steps forward” saying is very true.
Not to mention, depending on how the young players do next season, you almost always need a year or two, to make a couple of trades and signings, to really call the rebuild “Complete.” To “even out” the roster.
All of the trades and UFA signings since 2019, minus Debrincat, have been of the “filler player” variety. It’s pointless to judge those signing because of two things really.
First of all, no great free agents ever sign with rebuilding teams, and secondly, they haven’t had the ammunition to make good core trades because they need every high pick they’ve had.
Finally, and very importantly, where the media, podcasters, and the impatient casual fans go terribly wrong??
You quite literally, do NOT want to win during your rebuilding years!!! That’s why you don’t make core trades yet, sign top free agents, or go crazy at any trade deadline.. It’s why Yzerman did nothing at the deadline..
You lose all leverage in the draft if you win too much. You’ll be picking 15th-20th rather than Top 10, and extending the rebuild time. Last year, and likely this year as well, that’s been the case. They actually won too much.
Unfortunately in many ways, the playoff run last season has damaged their rebuild, more than helped it.
It created ridiculous expectations this year from the core media and fans. There’s a lot more of those casual fans, now demanding results, than there are hockey folks who understand what a rebuild needs to look like, and how time consuming a rebuild is.
Well, from what I’m hearing, it’s pretty likely Detroit is set to almost come out and announce, they’ll likely be taking a step backwards next season, as the roster will see an influx of rookies. If they don’t announce it, they’ll certainly leak that being the case.
Not a bad year to go backwards though. Not with Gavin McKenna at the top of the draft, as well as a Swedish kid named Ivar Stenberg, brother of Blues prospect Otto Stenberg.
You might be a little disappointed they internally expect to go backwards next year, or are now asking yourself, how they’ll be able to do so and have Yzerman survive this mounting pressure??
That’s a big question and why many are hearing what we are hearing….
Basically…. Don’t be surprised if right after the season, but more likely, right after the draft, if Yzerman steps down as General Manager and moves into the pretty much vacated spot of Jimmy Devellano, as President of Hockey Operations, and they name Kris Draier the new General Manager.
In doing so, the speculation is, they believe that will buy them another 3 years (Honeymoon for Draper) to complete their rebuild, and give the team it’s best chance to win consistently over the next 10-15 years. Hopefully adding another 2 very high-end prospects.
For those who don’t know, after this draft, there’s 3 Drafts in a row with a Franchise altering player at the top of the draft. MCKenna in 2026, followed by DuPont in 2027 and a kid named Maddox Schultz I’ve watched several times this year, heading the 2028 draft.
The expectation from the front office and ownership is, 2 more years of Top 10 picks, and then a big jump in the 2027-2028 season, as their big wave of prospects will be entering their 2nd and 3rd NHL season. Where we historically see the big jump.
If they play the kids next year and have a great season, even better. That will mean more of their kids are immediate impact NHL players. In 2027-2028 ASP, Edvinsson and Seider will also be entering their big prime years. Same with Kasper, Raymond and others up front.
That’s the speculation I’m hearing from scouts and evaluators. That Detroit isn’t ready to call the rebuild over, but the unexpected expectations after last season, is likely going to cause some changes in the front office. Mostly to buy time, they feel they still need.
Just while I’m on here tonight, I can say, I’ve heard the Larkin speculation but nobody has heard it from any legit source.
I will say, it does happen. Players from bad teams go to these events like 4Nations, the Olympics, etc, and they do get recruited by other players, or figure out they want to play more meaningful hockey sooner than their team will be playing at that level, etc..
I doubt he actually approached Yzerman prior to the deadline, and if he does this summer, I’m sure they won’t have any problems accommodating his request.
If he really thinks Columbus or LA is his best option for his career, I’m sure Yzerman or Draper will make him happy. They won’t go out of their way to plead with him to stay, if he wants out. That I can say with absolute certainty. There were more than a couple in that front office who would’ve preferred to trade Larkin than sign him last year.
After his 4Nations performance, they can name their price in many ways. It would cost LA Byfield, plus 2 other Grade A assets, and Columbus can expect to pay a massive price as well, if it’s so important to play with Werenski down in Columbus. Carolina? Same thing. All 3 of those teams have plenty to offer in a trade for a Larkin.
As for what they might do this summer?? I do think they’ll look at some of the arbitration eligible players, especially Dmen like York, Byrum, K’Andre Miller, and Samberg, and see if they’re available. Those teams have no choice but to sign long term contracts or trade those players this summer. They can’t afford any of them going to arbitration. The player will win a massive 1-2 year deal, and walk away for free after the contract. If there’s one of those they’d like more than others, it’s likely Samberg but I think they’d like to get their hands on a Cam York as well. He’d obviously come much cheaper.
The big thing to watch for is Yzerman though. I’ve heard it from several people that he’s not going to sit there and take all the negative press. While I doubt he just up and quits, taking Jimmy Devellano’s role he had for 25 years, is one of the best jobs in the sport. Running the Detroit Red Wings NEVER being able to be fired??
It’s the goal for these former players. They love the GM jobs too but the ultimate job is what Shanahan, Sakic and Blake now have. From the day Stevie was brought back, that’s been the plan. That he’d be the manager and after the team is back on firm ground, he’d take Jimmy D’s spot as President. The timing probably couldn’t be much better because the media and those casual fans I talked about, will automatically give Draper 3 years before putting any pressure on him to perform.
It’ll be an interesting beginning of the summer for Detroit. I’d call it a 50/50 chance Draper is the Manager after the Draft.
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