Your own 'Future Power Rankings'

[Indrid Cold]

Give us your top, and bottom 5 teams in 5 years' time.

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[conFABulator]

Give us your top, and bottom 5 teams in 5 years' time.

Great question. It will likely end up with some great content and also a lot of people justifying why they chose their team as one of the top five in five years.

I think you have to take two lenses to this.

• One is obviously the current young player and prospect roster. Which teams have the best group of players that will be in their primes five years from now.
• The other is cap and economics, not only which teams will have bad contracts holding them back in five years but also who will have spending power. As the cap continues to grow and perhaps exponentially we will see more of a gap between cap teams and budget teams. The Covid flat cap era leveled that paying field. We may go back to a dynamic where the top third of the league's spenders are spending $20M more per year than the bottom third.

Having prefaced with this, her is my quick list but I am sure this will evolve when I read more in depth analysis from others.

TOP FIVE

Vancouver. Cap team that has some nice young pieces. Hughes, Demko, and Petterson will still be in their primes in key positions.

Edmonton. Same as Vancouver. They will spend to the cap and still have McDavid and Draisatl in the tale end of primes. Bouchard looks like something to build around. If Skinner has a decent career these guys will continue to contend.

Toronto. The flat cap hurt the Leafs more than most. They will still have Matthews, Nylander and Marner if they want him. They will have money to spend and some decent young support pieces (strong young goalie prospects).

Buffalo. Probably not a cap team and that will hurt them. Lots of good young D and a couple of young G that could be franchise guys. Lots of F depth hitting prime too.

Rangers. Will always outspend others. Possibly the best goalie in the league for the next five years. Some good young D and F.

LATE EDIT. Chicago could be in here too. It's all about Bedard being the next one. They will have budget and supporting pieces.

BOTTOM FIVE

Ottawa. Not a cap team. They have locked in most of their roster for the next five years and it doesn't seem to have the high end talent to lift them. They will continue to struggle to attract and retain FA without overpay. It's a tough position for a budget team.

Montreal. Similar to Ottawa though they can spend a bit more. What pieces do they have now that are going to lifr then out. Finishing too many seasons where they wer bad, but not bad enough to pick at the top of strong drafts will hurt them.

Tampa. How do they avoid this. Vasilevsky, Hedman, Point will all be old and unless they do a fire sale of these vets they have no way to restock the shelves. No picks or prospects and they seem to be trying to extend the current window rather than building for the next one.

Pittsburgh. See Tampa but happening sooner.

Calgary. Just starting a rebuild now. Can they attract FA or will they have to build through the draft. They have picks but no real young pieces yet. They have to hit on a lot of picks and be patient with their development. Hard to do.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Great question. It will likely end up with some great content and also a lot of people justifying why they chose their team as one of the top five in five years.

I think you have to take two lenses to this.

• One is obviously the current young player and prospect roster. Which teams have the best group of players that will be in their primes five years from now.
• The other is cap and economics, not only which teams will have bad contracts holding them back in five years but also who will have spending power. As the cap continues to grow and perhaps exponentially we will see more of a gap between cap teams and budget teams. The Covid flat cap era leveled that paying field. We may go back to a dynamic where the top third of the league's spenders are spending $20M more per year than the bottom third.

Having prefaced with this, her is my quick list but I am sure this will evolve when I read more in depth analysis from others.

TOP FIVE

Vancouver. Cap team that has some nice young pieces. Hughes, Demko, and Petterson will still be in their primes in key positions.

Edmonton. Same as Vancouver. They will spend to the cap and still have McDavid and Draisatl in the tale end of primes. Bouchard looks like something to build around. If Skinner has a decent career these guys will continue to contend.

Toronto. The flat cap hurt the Leafs more than most. They will still have Matthews, Nylander and Marner if they want him. They will have money to spend and some decent young support pieces (strong young goalie prospects).

Buffalo. Probably not a cap team and that will hurt them. Lots of good young D and a couple of young G that could be franchise guys. Lots of F depth hitting prime too.

Rangers. Will always outspend others. Possibly the best goalie in the league for the next five years. Some good young D and F.

LATE EDIT. Chicago could be in here too. It's all about Bedard being the next one. They will have budget and supporting pieces.

BOTTOM FIVE

Ottawa. Not a cap team. They have locked in most of their roster for the next five years and it doesn't seem to have the high end talent to lift them. They will continue to struggle to attract and retain FA without overpay. It's a tough position for a budget team.

Montreal. Similar to Ottawa though they can spend a bit more. What pieces do they have now that are going to lifr then out. Finishing too many seasons where they wer bad, but not bad enough to pick at the top of strong drafts will hurt them.

Tampa. How do they avoid this. Vasilevsky, Hedman, Point will all be old and unless they do a fire sale of these vets they have no way to restock the shelves. No picks or prospects and they seem to be trying to extend the current window rather than building for the next one.

Pittsburgh. See Tampa but happening sooner.

Calgary. Just starting a rebuild now. Can they attract FA or will they have to build through the draft. They have picks but no real young pieces yet. They have to hit on a lot of picks and be patient with their development. Hard to do.

I doubt the Leafs are a top 5 team 5 years from now with a core of players all over 30. Rielly will be over 30 also. Not a chance.

 

[conFABulator]

I doubt the Leafs are a top 5 team 5 years from now with a core of players all over 30. Rielly will be over 30 also. Not a chance.

Cool. Which teams are you sure will be better. I imagine you have the same opinion of my Edmonton selection? Since their "core" is only two and they are older than the Leafs you reference?

I welcome the feedback and input and was happy to get it started but I think we all prefer to hear who should be in place of picks you don't agree with. This is about relativity. Top five in the league means as compared to other teams. It's easy to say "not them" and maybe a little more challenging to say "but I do think these guys and here's why".

 

[rsteen]

BOTTOM FIVE

Ottawa. Not a cap team. They have locked in most of their roster for the next five years and it doesn't seem to have the high end talent to lift them. They will continue to struggle to attract and retain FA without overpay. It's a tough position for a budget team.

They're within 2M of the cap ceiling with a 21-man roster. Any sign Andlauer is going to run them as a budget team?

 

[Golden_Jet]

They're within 2M of the cap ceiling with a 21-man roster. Any sign Andlauer is going to run them as a budget team?

Ya poster has a lot of wrong teams there, and falsehoods.

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

My Pittsburgh Penguins should be in everyone’s bottom 5 list. Unfortunately, I don’t see anyway that they can avoid it. Would need their prospects to step up and get lucky on multiple others.

 

[MartyOwns]

top 5: my team and 4 others

bottom 5: teams i dislike

 

[conFABulator]

They're within 2M of the cap ceiling with a 21-man roster. Any sign Andlauer is going to run them as a budget team?

I don't know for sure obviously. Yes, they are within $2M of the cap at $88M. If the cap rises 5% to 7% a year that has it at $115M in five years. Are they still spending to the cap?

It's a smaller market with a smaller corporate base, the largest employer/industry is government and they don't spend like the private sector does on sponsorship, etc. The building is old and in a bad location, this could be the source of attendance issues. These have been the issues that have plagued the franchise forever. Maybe the new owner digs deep and finances losses. As I said, I don't know for sure and I am basing my thoughts on the future on data from the past. Things could change.

This is half of the equation, the other half is that they are coming out of a tank rebuild and with some nice pieces + Ullmark they shouldn't be banking on high draft picks for the next few years. Are those pieces good enough to change the trajectory here? They are all locked in (except Ullmark) so they need to hope they have bet on the right horses. Is the new coach a difference maker, more here than he was in Vancouver and NJ? He has coached to one winning season in his career so far.

I may be placing too much currency in economics but I do worry about small Canadian markets. Add in taxes, weather, and playing in a fishbowl and it's tough. I have two of them (+ Montreal) in my bottom five. Winnipeg concerns me too, though I think their current position is strong enough to not be a bottom five in five years.

Ya poster has a lot of wrong teams there, and falsehoods.

Cool. Does this poster have any actual substance to add? Better choices with less falsehoods?

 

[conFABulator]

top 5: my team and 4 others

bottom 5: teams i dislike

It does have the real possibility of going this way. I tried to maintain objectivity.

It's a good question, and I like the way I framed it with roster + economics otherwise it is just a "which teams have the best young players/prospects" discussion which we have seen before.

I guess we could factor in quality of management, but I think that ultimately has a lot to do with economics too.

Bowman in Edmonton is a wild card. I don't like that hire, but Jackson is still there and seems to have done a good job.

My Pittsburgh Penguins should be in everyone’s bottom 5 list. Unfortunately, I don’t see anyway that they can avoid it. Would need their prospects to step up and get lucky on multiple others.

Yeah, the only possible way to avoid this is to sell off Crosby, Malkin, Letang and Karlsson but that is not the direction. I understand this too. Take another shot while you have Crosby. At least the upcoming drought follows cup victories...a trade off most fanbases would happily make.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I don't know for sure obviously. Yes, they are within $2M of the cap at $88M. If the cap rises 5% to 7% a year that has it at $115M in five years. Are they still spending to the cap?

It's a smaller market with a smaller corporate base, the largest employer/industry is government and they don't spend like the private sector does on sponsorship, etc. The building is old and in a bad location, this could be the source of attendance issues. These have been the issues that have plagued the franchise forever. Maybe the new owner digs deep and finances losses. As I said, I don't know for sure and I am basing my thoughts on the future on data from the past. Things could change.

This is half of the equation, the other half is that they are coming out of a tank rebuild and with some nice pieces + Ullmark they shouldn't be banking on high draft picks for the next few years. Are those pieces good enough to change the trajectory here? They are all locked in (except Ullmark) so they need to hope they have bet on the right horses. Is the new coach a difference maker, more here than he was in Vancouver and NJ? He has coached to one winning season in his career so far.

I may be placing too much currency in economics but I do worry about small Canadian markets. Add in taxes, weather, and playing in a fishbowl and it's tough. I have two of them (+ Montreal) in my bottom five. Winnipeg concerns me too, though I think their current position is strong enough to not be a bottom five in five years.


Cool. Does this poster have any actual substance to add? Better choices with less falsehoods?

Andlauer has shown no signs of not spending, and adding to the front office.
Looking at a new building as well.

The building is old lmao, it’s 3 years younger than the leafs building, guess they’ll be building a new one soon as well.

Leafs won’t be top 5 in 5 years, they’re starting to drop in the east.

lol, at the cap hurt the leafs the most. It hurt all cap teams the same.

It does have the real possibility of going this way. I tried to maintain objectivity.

Lmao

 

[conFABulator]

Andlauer has shown no signs of not spending, and adding to the front office.
Looking at a new building as well.

The building is old lmao, it’s 3 years younger than the leafs building, guess they’ll be building a new one soon as well.

Leafs won’t be top 5 in 5 years, they’re starting to drop in the east.

lol, at the cap hurt the leafs the most. It hurt all cap teams the same.


Lmao

No owner shows signs of not spending until they stop spending. It's not good for business to telegraph austerity. As I said, who knows. Maybe he finances losses.

The new building story in Ottawa is just a story until it happens. Then it takes time.

I am not sure why the measure of how old a building is its relative age to the Leafs building. The Leafs building is old too. It's the 16th oldest building in the league. Luckily it is in a fantastic location in a world class city. The Sens building is eighth oldest and not in a good location. These are facts and the reason they are talking about a new building. Everyone in the world worries about the long term viability and competitiveness of the Senators, this is not new or my opinion only.

No, not every team was hurt equally by the flat cap. The big spenders were hurt more because the flat cap brought parity that hadn't previously existed. They couldn't outspend their problems. For the Leafs this was compounded with having locked up four players on deals management hoped would age well as the cap increased. Feel free to tell me which other teams had the same dynamics to deal with.

I am sorry I put your team on this list and a team that you obviously hate on the other list.

Could you maybe provide your top/bottom five so we can have an actual discussion? If you can't do that's tell me who you swap Ottawa out for at the bottom and who you swap Toronto out for at the top. I already added Chicago as honourable mention, but they might be just as likely to take out Edmonton or Vancouver.

 

[ToDavid]

1. Florida
2. Edmonton
3. Colorado
4. Dallas
5. Vancouver

28. Calgary
29. New York Islanders
30. Washington
31. St. Louis
32. Pittsburgh

 

[conFABulator]

1. Florida
2. Edmonton
3. Colorado
4. Dallas
5. Vancouver

28. Calgary
29. New York Islanders
30. Washington
31. St. Louis
32. Pittsburgh

Those are some good choices, especially on the bottom five. Washington seems likely, NYI always seem to stay in the mushy middle. I think St. Louis avoids bottom five because they have great management.

On the top end, the age of Dallas is an issue. Having said this, core key players are young enough. They have good management.

I think Florida starts the cup-hangover cap-related dismantling soon. Do they have any actual young pieces that will augment their aging core? They don't need to be stars, just guys that can help Barkov and Reinhart. Bobrovsky coming off the books helps, but then they need a goalie. They have good management also.

Colorado? I agree they could be there with MacKinnon and Makar. They need more pieces and a goalie.

Edmonton and Vancouver were on my list and pretty interchangeable with the Leafs.

 

[dgibb10]

top 5: my team and 4 others

bottom 5: teams i dislike

You forgot to put team I like in the top 5 wtf

 

[conFABulator]

You forgot to put team I like in the top 5 wtf

Even better is the "grinning idiot" emoji response but no comment. Or the picking one team that's wrong with the list but no alternative.

One guy has posted a list in addition me so far and he had a few good choices on their. It's supposed to be a discussion board.

 

[ToDavid]

Those are some good choices, especially on the bottom five. Washington seems likely, NYI always seem to stay in the mushy middle. I think St. Louis avoids bottom five because they have great management.

On the top end, the age of Dallas is an issue. Having said this, core key players are young enough. They have good management.

I think Florida starts the cup-hangover cap-related dismantling soon. Do they have any actual young pieces that will augment their aging core? They don't need to be stars, just guys that can help Barkov and Reinhart. Bobrovsky coming off the books helps, but then they need a goalie. They have good management also.

Colorado? I agree they could be there with MacKinnon and Makar. They need more pieces and a goalie.

Edmonton and Vancouver were on my list and pretty interchangeable with the Leafs.

Yah, ultimately so much unknown but my general criteria was teams that are good now and who's best players are still young-ish. Florida and Colorado were definitely tougher picks for me. For Florida, I like that most of their core pieces are still under 30 including Tkachuk at 26. Both those teams will need to figure out goaltending in five years. And I like the mangement of both.

Bottom five was probably harder than top five. You never know who might hang on to the middle vs. commit to a rebuild and all it takes is a draft pick hit or two or some hot goaltending and you'll stay out of the true basement (for better or worse).

 

[Snap]

Dallas
Philly
Colorado
Edmonton
Vancouver

Calgary
Columbus
Washington
Montreal
Pittsburgh

 

[conFABulator]

Yah, ultimately so much unknown but my general criteria was teams that are good now and who's best players are still young-ish. Florida and Colorado were definitely tougher picks for me. For Florida, I like that most of their core pieces are still under 30 including Tkachuk at 26. Both those teams will need to figure out goaltending in five years. And I like the mangement of both.

Bottom five was probably harder than top five. You never know who might hang on to the middle vs. commit to a rebuild and all it takes is a draft pick hit or two or some hot goaltending and you'll stay out of the true basement (for better or worse).

I find the fun and value in these types of questions and polls is discussing the criteria and decision making process.

I do think cap, budget and economics play a role. The NHL is the only hard cap league and Covid flattened it. Will we see more disparity now that the cap is ringing again. People seem to forget, but before Covid you had cap teams and budget teams. That's a factor too if we go back to that.

 

[Wayfarer13]

Great question. It will likely end up with some great content and also a lot of people justifying why they chose their team as one of the top five in five years.

I think you have to take two lenses to this.

• One is obviously the current young player and prospect roster. Which teams have the best group of players that will be in their primes five years from now.
• The other is cap and economics, not only which teams will have bad contracts holding them back in five years but also who will have spending power. As the cap continues to grow and perhaps exponentially we will see more of a gap between cap teams and budget teams. The Covid flat cap era leveled that paying field. We may go back to a dynamic where the top third of the league's spenders are spending $20M more per year than the bottom third.

Having prefaced with this, her is my quick list but I am sure this will evolve when I read more in depth analysis from others.

TOP FIVE

Vancouver. Cap team that has some nice young pieces. Hughes, Demko, and Petterson will still be in their primes in key positions.

Edmonton. Same as Vancouver. They will spend to the cap and still have McDavid and Draisatl in the tale end of primes. Bouchard looks like something to build around. If Skinner has a decent career these guys will continue to contend.

Toronto. The flat cap hurt the Leafs more than most. They will still have Matthews, Nylander and Marner if they want him. They will have money to spend and some decent young support pieces (strong young goalie prospects).

Buffalo. Probably not a cap team and that will hurt them. Lots of good young D and a couple of young G that could be franchise guys. Lots of F depth hitting prime too.

Rangers. Will always outspend others. Possibly the best goalie in the league for the next five years. Some good young D and F.

LATE EDIT. Chicago could be in here too. It's all about Bedard being the next one. They will have budget and supporting pieces.

BOTTOM FIVE

Ottawa. Not a cap team. They have locked in most of their roster for the next five years and it doesn't seem to have the high end talent to lift them. They will continue to struggle to attract and retain FA without overpay. It's a tough position for a budget team.

Montreal. Similar to Ottawa though they can spend a bit more. What pieces do they have now that are going to lifr then out. Finishing too many seasons where they wer bad, but not bad enough to pick at the top of strong drafts will hurt them.

Tampa. How do they avoid this. Vasilevsky, Hedman, Point will all be old and unless they do a fire sale of these vets they have no way to restock the shelves. No picks or prospects and they seem to be trying to extend the current window rather than building for the next one.

Pittsburgh. See Tampa but happening sooner.

Calgary. Just starting a rebuild now. Can they attract FA or will they have to build through the draft. They have picks but no real young pieces yet. They have to hit on a lot of picks and be patient with their development. Hard to do.

Little early to put that label on
Montreal

 

[Indrid Cold]

1. Florida
2. Edmonton
3. Colorado
4. Dallas
5. Vancouver

28. Calgary
29. New York Islanders
30. Washington
31. St. Louis
32. Pittsburgh

Can't say my list would look much different, if at all.

 

[conFABulator]

Little early to put that label on
Montreal

Isn't it a little early, five years too early to put that label on anyone?

I worry that Montreal did not maximize their tank window. They have some decent pieces and maybe they get another high pick this year but otherwise I don't see the core there to lift them out. They might not be bottom five, but mushy middle. Then of course, how long does that fanbase tolerate mediocrity?

I don't love their coaching or management to get them out of this and I am not sure what kind of UFA destination they are.

 

[Wayfarer13]

Isn't it a little early, five years too early to put that label on anyone?

I worry that Montreal did not maximize their tank window. They have some decent pieces and maybe they get another high pick this year but otherwise I don't see the core there to lift them out. They might not be bottom five, but mushy middle. Then of course, how long does that fanbase tolerate mediocrity?

I don't love their coaching or management to get them out of this and I am not sure what kind of UFA destination they are.

The thing to remember is that their crash was exasperated by setting records for man games lost to injury. I see at least a 10 point improvement thus year with an upside of a play off spot especially if they can trimm off another 100 man games lost to injury.

 

[squashmaple]

Five years ago was the 2018-19 season. The top five teams that season were by points (best to worst) Tampa, Calgary, Boston, Washington, and the Islanders. The bottom five were (worst to best) Ottawa, LA, New Jersey, Detroit, and Buffalo. How many of these things are still true?

Literally none of them, it turns out.

Top five by points: Rangers, Dallas, Carolina, Florida, and Winnipeg. The bottom five were San Jose, Chicago, Anaheim, Columbus, and Montreal.

Anyone who thinks the 2024 top teams will still be the top teams in 2029 is fooling themselves, same as with the bottom.

(and let's look at the 2013-14 season as five years further back for a greater sample size. Top five: Boston, Anaheim, Colorado, St. Louis, San Jose. Bottom five: Buffalo, Florida, Edmonton, Calgary, Islanders. I think it's interesting that two of the five top are now bottom five and one of the bottom five is now a top five with an honorable mention to Edmonton who were in the Cup final this spring while not finishing top five in points)

Edit: I went into much more detail on this in post #40 of this thread.

 

[emptyNedder]

Top teams:

NJ--if they keep the Hughes brothers and Hischier. As another thread argues, likely the best D in 5 years.

SJ--maybe more like 6 years. Celebrini/Smith/Dickinson/Musty/Eklund is great core, if one of Chernyshov/Bystedt/Wetsch hits for another big winger, they will be really good

StL--Thomas/Kyrou/Neighbors will be in prime. Dvorsky/Jiricek/Stenberg/Lindstein developing nicely. if Snuggerud and Bolduc pan out, a well balanced group.

Edm--dependent on re-signing McD and Drai.

Colo--dependent on Mac, Makar staying and/or staying healthy

HM--Dallas--good already and pipeline is still promising.

Bottom:

Pitt--as other have stated

Cal--Lack of prime-age top line players

Wash--Same as Calgary