Value of: Your Cap Dumps/Casualties to the Wings

[Toby Flenderson]

Nick Bjugstad (4.1m for 1 year) + Matt Murray for pick 45OA?

Bjugstad with only 1 year left means absolutely nothing to Detroit. They get Murray at a discount for taking him on. Clears cap and solves the goalie issue for Pitt. Win-Win

 

[StreetHawk]

Nick Bjugstad (4.1m for 1 year) + Matt Murray for pick 45OA?

Bjugstad with only 1 year left means absolutely nothing to Detroit. They get Murray at a discount for taking him on. Clears cap and solves the goalie issue for Pitt. Win-Win

Honestly, I think with how few teams out there that can take on cap hits, there might only be room for around 12 or so guys with around $5 mill cap hits that can be moved to the likes of Det, LA, Ott, NJ, etc. Plus, in some situations, we are talking about real money and there have been reports that some owners want to shed real cash.

So, if teams who wish to move guys out, might have to be willing to take less to ensure that they move the contracts out. Is Pitt going to QO Murray? If they do, Murray might just sign it, then the Pens are tied to him.

I think Murray on his own would return #45, but having to take on Bjudstad, would push that price down to round 3. I think the Pens would prefer to go cheap in net with Jarry/DeSmith. Unlikely that JJ with that term and cap hit is going to be moved. Only a couple more years left in Sid's prime. I doubt 20 odd spots in the draft is going to make or break the Pens in these next 2 seasons as anyone they pick likely isn't going to play until 2022 at the earliest.

If the Wings truly wanted a future netminder, the places to call to take a cap hit and get a goalie are like NYR with Georgiev and take B. Smith as an example or Vancouver for Demko and Eriksson. Murray isn't old however.

 

[Toby Flenderson]

Honestly, I think with how few teams out there that can take on cap hits, there might only be room for around 12 or so guys with around $5 mill cap hits that can be moved to the likes of Det, LA, Ott, NJ, etc. Plus, in some situations, we are talking about real money and there have been reports that some owners want to shed real cash.

So, if teams who wish to move guys out, might have to be willing to take less to ensure that they move the contracts out. Is Pitt going to QO Murray? If they do, Murray might just sign it, then the Pens are tied to him.

I think Murray on his own would return #45, but having to take on Bjudstad, would push that price down to round 3. I think the Pens would prefer to go cheap in net with Jarry/DeSmith. Unlikely that JJ with that term and cap hit is going to be moved. Only a couple more years left in Sid's prime. I doubt 20 odd spots in the draft is going to make or break the Pens in these next 2 seasons as anyone they pick likely isn't going to play until 2022 at the earliest.

If the Wings truly wanted a future netminder, the places to call to take a cap hit and get a goalie are like NYR with Georgiev and take B. Smith as an example or Vancouver for Demko and Eriksson. Murray isn't old however.

Bolded is the issue. Murray holds more value than a mid 2nd round pick. He is absolutely worth in the pick #27-31 range


Adding a 1 year cap dump to him brings him down. 45 should be the sweet spot

 

[Dr Quincy]

how about just cutting thru needless chatter and getting to the point by listing your ideas for both casualties and or dumps

Seabrook to DET.

There, happy?

 

[StreetHawk]

Bolded is the issue. Murray holds more value than a mid 2nd round pick. He is absolutely worth in the pick #27-31 range


Adding a 1 year cap dump to him brings him down. 45 should be the sweet spot

I would say that if I’m Detroit, I’m not going to be a PO team anyways, so I’m hunting the best value deals I can get. No shortage of teams will come calling them to take guys off their roster.

I would give up assets if I truly believe in what I’m getting back.

I’ve already committed to paying Bernier next season. Ideally my goal is to develop someone who is a long term solution.

It’s the competition from Other teams looking to move their guys that the Pens face in moving salary. With or without Murray doesn’t change how next season ends up for Detroit. A flat cap puts them in an excellent position to either add more future assets or get quality players on the cheap. Depends which option they want and what areas they eye and the prices they are willing to pay.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Honestly, I think with how few teams out there that can take on cap hits, there might only be room for around 12 or so guys with around $5 mill cap hits that can be moved to the likes of Det, LA, Ott, NJ, etc. Plus, in some situations, we are talking about real money and there have been reports that some owners want to shed real cash.

So, if teams who wish to move guys out, might have to be willing to take less to ensure that they move the contracts out. Is Pitt going to QO Murray? If they do, Murray might just sign it, then the Pens are tied to him.

I think Murray on his own would return #45, but having to take on Bjudstad, would push that price down to round 3. I think the Pens would prefer to go cheap in net with Jarry/DeSmith. Unlikely that JJ with that term and cap hit is going to be moved. Only a couple more years left in Sid's prime. I doubt 20 odd spots in the draft is going to make or break the Pens in these next 2 seasons as anyone they pick likely isn't going to play until 2022 at the earliest.

If the Wings truly wanted a future netminder, the places to call to take a cap hit and get a goalie are like NYR with Georgiev and take B. Smith as an example or Vancouver for Demko and Eriksson. Murray isn't old however.

@StreetHawk Agreed with most of it, except: Demko & Loui...we don't need a backup goalie that badly, though I'm sure it was just an example off the top of your head. We can sign one for free UFA.

I think you're spot on about the Pens situation & Murray also. A late 3rd sounds about right.

Lastly, I read an aritcle a few months ago, it showed a chart of the remaining cap space b/w all 31 teams combined, minus ~20 who were up against it, then I factored in the Internal Cap + 3yr Flat Caps & you're Spot On, only ~$50-$70M in Cap Space available between the remaining ~7 teams. Also consider a few of those 7 teams will probably wanna shed from current payrolls & it becomes like 4-5 teams that are open for business.....Lots of people will be very surprised at how expensive it'll be to move a $5M/yr player, especially with remaining term (2-5yrs). Since there is a Finite amount of Cap, the longer a team waits to trade a Cap Dump & to a lesser degree Cap Casualty, the more it'll cost. As a Red Wings fan I feel like Clark W. Griswold @ Wally World.

Just guessing cost to move a player based on what we know so far:
(+/- NHL ready/near ready prospect(s) to even it out, based on current health/use-ability/position & caliber of player)

$6m@1yr = mid-lateish 1st or equivalent prospect
$5m@1yr = late 1st or equivalent prospect
$4m@1yr = mid-late 2nd or equivalent prospect
$3m@1yr = late 2nd/early 3rd or equivalent prospect
etc...

Then add for each additional year.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I would say that if I’m Detroit, I’m not going to be a PO team anyways, so I’m hunting the best value deals I can get. No shortage of teams will come calling them to take guys off their roster.

I would give up assets if I truly believe in what I’m getting back.

I’ve already committed to paying Bernier next season. Ideally my goal is to develop someone who is a long term solution.

It’s the competition from Other teams looking to move their guys that the Pens face in moving salary. With or without Murray doesn’t change how next season ends up for Detroit. A flat cap puts them in an excellent position to either add more future assets or get quality players on the cheap. Depends which option they want and what areas they eye and the prices they are willing to pay.

Exactly, perfect explanation.

 

[deca guard]

Seabrook to DET.

There, happy?

not really as obviously people would like hearing all the peices you'd think would be shuffled in the trade

 

[mrinsane]

Habs could give you Domi+Mete and a 3rd on 2020 and a 4th for Mantha

 

[Syckle78]

Jack Johnson + 3rd for a cheap 4th liner and a 5th?

So we take johnson to upgrade a 5th to a 3rd? holy shit where can I sign up?

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

So we take johnson to upgrade a 5th to a 3rd? holy shit where can I sign up?

...and we get the privilege of giving a cheap 4th liner in a Cap Squeeze to a mortal enemy within our conference so they can acquire more assets for their closing Cup window.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

If you want to take Seabrook the Hawks will happily give you 17 OA to do so.

While we're not talking about pipedreams,
What would it take to dump Zack Smith for 1 year at full cap hit(3.25M) or at 50%? (1.625M)

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

Even though it happened last season I would expect to see a Marleau + 1st for nothing type trade this offseason. That was special circumstances due to Marner needing to get paid and Toronto not having the option to buyout Marleau (a buyout wouldn’t have saved any cap).

I feel like this off-season we are more likely to see Mason + Armia type moves

 

[Sam Pollock]

If you want to take Seabrook the Hawks will happily give you 17 OA to do so.

While we're not talking about pipedreams,
What would it take to dump Zack Smith for 1 year at full cap hit(3.25M) or at 50%? (1.625M)

What would you give as a sweetener and want for Smith at 50% retained from any team?

 

[dredeye]

John Moore from Boston. Three years left at 2.75 per. What’s the cost to take him on?

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

John Moore from Boston. Three years left at 2.75 per. What’s the cost to take him on?

@dredeye

J.Moore wouldn't likely be in our Top6D, but tied for #7 w/Biega & Bowey, so...

Our needs are NHL ready prospects for 2C & Top4 LD, both preferably 23 or younger. Also prefer RHS on 2C if possible. Who do you have that fits?

What does Forsbacka-Karlsson project as?

Gryzelczyk? Zboril? Vaakinainen?

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Canes would be looking to move Gardiner and Nino Neiderreiter for cap relief to sign young guys and extend Dougie.

Here’s the term remaining for each.

Gardiner - 3 years @ $4.05 mil
Nino - 2 years @ $5.25 mil

Both still relatively young and capable players and can be worth their cap hits but need the right situation and usage for that to happen. It doesn’t seem to be the case in Carolina.

We wouldn’t attach a big asset to move them as we aren’t in a dire situation and again, they aren’t AHLers or anything but we wouldn’t need much of a return either as cap space would be the gain for Carolina.

To a lesser extent Mrazek/Reimer would also be available to be moved if the Canes look to change up their goalie situation and also Dzingle. They all only have 1 year left on their deals at pretty low value so it definitely wouldn’t be a dump situation.

 

[Dr Quincy]

J.Moore wouldn't likely be in our Top6D, but tied for #7 w/Biega & Bowey, so...

Our needs are NHL ready prospects for 2C & Top4 LD, both preferably 23 or younger. Also prefer RHS on 2C if possible. Who do you have that fits?

What does Forsbacka-Karlsson project as?

Gryzelczyk? Zboril? Vaakinainen?

Yeah you aren't getting anything like that for a 2 year contract under 3m. Good luck.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Canes would be looking to move Gardiner and Nino Neiderreiter for cap relief to sign young guys and extend Dougie.

Here’s the term remaining for each.

Gardiner - 3 years @ $4.05 mil
Nino - 2 years @ $5.25 mil

Both still relatively young and capable players and can be worth their cap hits but need the right situation and usage for that to happen. It doesn’t seem to be the case in Carolina.

We wouldn’t attach a big asset to move them as we aren’t in a dire situation and again, they aren’t AHLers or anything but we wouldn’t need much of a return either as cap space would be the gain for Carolina.

To a lesser extent Mrazek/Reimer would also be available to be moved if the Canes look to change up their goalie situation and also Dzingle. They all only have 1 year left on their deals at pretty low value so it definitely wouldn’t be a dump situation.

@ GIN ANTONIC
possible slight interest in Gardiner, how's his skating now? his back injury iirc?

I doubt any picks & prospects would be paid for Jake, but maybe Darren Helm (cup vet, PK, decent speed still, glue guy), 1 yr left, cheap deal. Carolina needs some sandpaper, 110% effort types (that aren't total pylons).

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

What would you give as a sweetener and want for Smith at 50% retained from any team?

Late pick downgrade at 50% (Smith+4th for a 5th or something like that)

At full hit I'd give a 4th for a 7th or a 5th for future considerations. If it would take a 3rd for the full hit I'd consider it because the Hawks have 2.

Smith is a decent 4th liner he's just severely overpaid.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Yeah you aren't getting anything like that for a 2 year contract under 3m. Good luck.

@Dr Quincy

Not in the normal world, but we're far from that. That realization is gonna come hard & fast for many fans, even some GM's. Now I'm not saying we'd get both 2C & Top4 LD for taking on J.Moore 3yrs/$2.75, but as Cap space starts to dwindle & # of possible dance partners start to ghost, 1 of those isn't out of realm of possibilities. Guess we'll find out soon enough though.

P.S. you stated 2 yrs, but it's actually 3 yrs.

 

[Sam Pollock]

Late pick downgrade at 50% (Smith+4th for a 5th or something like that)

At full hit I'd give a 4th for a 7th or a 5th for future considerations. If it would take a 3rd for the full hit I'd consider it because the Hawks have 2.

Smith is a decent 4th liner he's just severely overpaid.

One last question. How bad is Seabrook's injury? Is he out for next season whenever that will start? Is it career threatening?

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

@ GIN ANTONIC
possible slight interest in Gardiner, how's his skating now? his back injury iirc?

I doubt any picks & prospects would be paid for Jake, but maybe Darren Helm (cup vet, PK, decent speed still, glue guy), 1 yr left, cheap deal. Carolina needs some sandpaper, 110% effort types (that aren't total pylons).

Yeah, I could see something like that. Carolina lost some grit form last year to this year and it showed. Rod likes players who will skate through the boards for the team and he trusts vets. We’re a young team and with Williams maybe not being back full time or at all next year I could see the org wanting to bring in more leadership and hard nosed players. I think someone who can bring that type of play to the 3rd/4th line or 3rd D pair is exactly the right fit so maybe Helm makes sense.

I would defer to my other Canes fans on Gardiner skating as I didn’t get to see a ton of games this year. He wasnt good the first half of the season but after Jan 1 he played MUCH better and was contributing in a positive way. He still had a great stretch odd and is fine skating towards the offensive zone but I think the real issue is getting back into the D zone and recovery. When he turns to skate backwards it looks really awkward and painful. I don’t know if his back is 100% or if it will get there. If you can give him solid PP time and some sheltered minutes/zone starts with a reliable defensive defensive man he could flourish. Also having speedy forward that can take a long pass and break into the zone would magnify his skill set

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Yeah, I could see something like that. Carolina lost some grit form last year to this year and it showed. Rod likes players who will skate through the boards for the team and he trusts vets. We’re a young team and with Williams maybe not being back full time or at all next year I could see the org wanting to bring in more leadership and hard nosed players. I think someone who can bring that type of play to the 3rd/4th line or 3rd D pair is exactly the right fit so maybe Helm makes sense.

I would defer to my other Canes fans on Gardiner skating as I didn’t get to see a ton of games this year. He wasnt good the first half of the season but after Jan 1 he played MUCH better and was contributing in a positive way. He still had a great stretch odd and is fine skating towards the offensive zone but I think the real issue is getting back into the D zone and recovery. When he turns to skate backwards it looks really awkward and painful. I don’t know if his back is 100% or if it will get there. If you can give him solid PP time and some sheltered minutes/zone starts with a reliable defensive defensive man he could flourish. Also having speedy forward that can take a long pass and break into the zone would magnify his skill set

If healthy & no skating issues etc, ideally, he'd be our 2nd pairing LD with rookie Mo Seider, while Mo is very good defensively, he dominated the AHL @age 18, he may not be ready to shelter a poor skating defensive liability just yet at the NHL level. If he has skating/liability issues he'd be our 3rd pairing LD, but fighting for that spot with Cholowski & replaced by Nemeth on the 2nd.

We do have some speedy F's though, so that'd fit.

 

[Go Wings]

Canes would be looking to move Gardiner and Nino Neiderreiter for cap relief to sign young guys and extend Dougie.

Here’s the term remaining for each.

Gardiner - 3 years @ $4.05 mil
Nino - 2 years @ $5.25 mil

Both still relatively young and capable players and can be worth their cap hits but need the right situation and usage for that to happen. It doesn’t seem to be the case in Carolina.

We wouldn’t attach a big asset to move them as we aren’t in a dire situation and again, they aren’t AHLers or anything but we wouldn’t need much of a return either as cap space would be the gain for Carolina.

To a lesser extent Mrazek/Reimer would also be available to be moved if the Canes look to change up their goalie situation and also Dzingle. They all only have 1 year left on their deals at pretty low value so it definitely wouldn’t be a dump situation.

No anywhere including GM thinks Gardiner is young and capable or did you forget how long it took him to sign?

Even with Detroit's awful defense we do not want Gardiner. Unless Carolina attaches a good asset to move him you are stuck with him. I highly doubt Seattle is going to take him in the expansion draft either.

But I do love your audacity lmao young and capable I am going to remember that one