Post-Game Talk: YOLO and HNY HFOIL

[Drivesaitl]

I think you can see my point.

The position is about working what you got. Find perfection in your own game.

Stu was one goal away from the biggest prize and it was a goal he is quite capable of stopping (sadly Kulak backing up was partly screening him, Skinner overcompensated by backing up too far and handcuffed himself shrinking back into the post)

If you are one goal away in this game of inches you are objectively good enough, it coulda broken either way. He was outlasted by a first ballot HoF who is at the tail end of his peak (ie all of the experience Stu doesn't have yet).

This basically conflates association vs causation. That the Oilers went to the SC final game 7 is due to yeoman work of the best players in the world. Players that would have won the Cup, and possiblly year prior as well with anything better than Skinner. The Oilers get as far as they do because no other team in the world have 1,2 centers as good and dominant as McD and Drai. Period. Odd that you absolve Skinner (or seemingly) on the goal that decided who won the SC. ON a goal a decent goalie should have.

In regards to my prior post you seem not to understand my points about flexibilty in the butterfly and being able to spread pads out. Stu Skinner is 6ft5 and somehow unable to spread his pads post to post despite having long legs. Its because he lacks even basic flexibility to do so. The best goalies in the world can contort their pads across, on ice, to an inverted T. Skinner barely manages a V, and Sometimes his pads are almost parallel instead of across. What this means is Skinner, down in butterfly, even despite his size advantage lets a lot of pucks in on ice, inside post, on either side or that he's also susceptible to wraps because he can't stretch out to cover posts. With Skinner in his butterfly theres a full 18inches-2ft that he leaves open on ice due to his inadequate butterfly. Again what I mean is Skinner with pads down on ice is a V instead of a T. The whole point of a butterfly, as developed by goalies like Tretiak over half a century go is to maximize on ice pad coverage. You do this because hockey is unpredictable. On ice shots can be deflected, tap ins can go bar in, unexpected wraps can occur. Many reasons why you want maximum post to post pad coverage on ice in the butterfly. Ask me if this isn't clear.

I made some basic comments about Skinner lacking up and down strength commensurate to move his size. he stays down too long in instances and stays there because he lacks ability to spring back up. So that he's caught down. Most goalies will be up and down a lot based on situation in front of them. Very apparent that Skinner stays either down or up a lot more than premium goalies do. He's more static in either position because he has trouble with up down mobility. I've seen Skinner crawling up on some plays like a 70's goalie. Seems to fatigue easy as well.

I agree Skinner can't do butterfly pushes either. Just another lacking skillset. Because obtaining these requires years of work.

Finally with the edgework Skinner has often been seen tumbling when he tries to practices this. In a game in Carolina last season Skinner is trying to do some basic edges and he tumbles over like a tea kettle, slides into Carolina side and the Canes are laughing at him. They proceed to pump 4 pucks past an embarrassed Skinner in the first period of that game. Another game last year between whistles Skinner trying to find his water bottle and his skates just pop forward and he lands on his butt. Kinda funny. This not isolated. Several instances where Skinner will lose his balance and fall down untouched during play. Not sure how you wouldn't notice it. Twice this season he's almost fell backwards into his post. He looks like somebody that isn't even a good basic skater.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Skinner played 13 games that season, not much of a sample size

My point isn’t that he’s not better than Koskinen, it’s that he’s not consistent or athletic enough to be the starter. And also that if he wasn’t a hometown kid he wouldn’t have such a fanbase

Yeah. Plus the same posters will say you CANNOT use Pickards better record or stats as comparison because he plays less games and easier games but I guess in comparison to when Koski was the starter its fair and notable point to make. haha.

I agree that in no way is Skinner a better goalie than Koski. They are the same. The diff as you noted is we have a better team now, and certainly with better D and defensive play. I mean the presence of Ekholm alone is a quantum difference. He added a shutdown D element to the club that it just didn't have.

I think the strangest thing I see in this thread is suggestions of attribution, that Skinner should be evaluated, or is by some on the basis of his W-L record. A point that even dubiously misses that Pickards record is almost always better. With Pickard being an imminently available goalie that still manages to elicit convo on who's better.

 

[TB12]

I think you can see my point.

The position is about working what you got. Find perfection in your own game.

Stu was one goal away from the biggest prize and it was a goal he is quite capable of stopping (sadly Kulak backing up was partly screening him, Skinner overcompensated by backing up too far and handcuffed himself shrinking back into the post)

If you are one goal away in this game of inches you are objectively good enough, it coulda broken either way. He was outlasted by a first ballot HoF who is at the tail end of his peak (ie all of the experience Stu doesn't have yet).

I know, I'm just bugging ya. I get your point.

 

[TheNumber4]

There is a lot of Strawman and a good deal of traditional Replacement bias in the above. I feel like there are probably a half-dozen of your posts on various players you decided to pick on (including several on RNH, who you now seem to finally appreciate... perhaps only because he took a discount) that start with: "This is a working class town and player so and so is lazy... don't ask me to dig up a link, you can see it in their demeanor"

To rebut a few of your actual in-good-faith points:

1) No, a modern 6'5 NHL goalie DOES NOT need to be particularly flexible. They are already big, they need a super strong core, super strong glutes and hips. That often comes at the expense of flexibility so you prioritize the former.

2) Jonathan Quick is probably the WORST comparable to Skinner in this modern era. I know you did it to contrast, but they are like an ENTIRELY DIFFERENT CLASS of goaltender. What 5'11 (if that) Quick needs to do to be successful at the NHL level and what Skinner needs to do, are entirely different. Quick does need to get up and down into butterfly twice as fast because he's going to need to do it twice as often... he can't see otherwise.

3) To the above, much of what you want out of Skinner is stylistic. You prefer J Quick's style of goaltending. Me too, I'm a huge FAN of small goalies who (absolutely have no choice but to) play with that level of agility. I am not a FAN of Skinner's style, but I do ADMIRE it. The record shows that HUGE, reasonably skating goalies are THE phenotype that is successful in the NHL. I wish this style would die off, but there is no question that it works and it's very clear that smaller, more athletic goalies have difficulty rising the ranks.

4) I do agree that skating and edge work is critical for NHL goaltending... I don't agree that Skinner is particularly a bad skater... at least I haven't noticed it at all. I will bookmark this point and have a more critical eye... but my eye test is perhaps biased by the fact that, unlike Smith and Koskinen before him, Skinner actually DOES play at the top of the crease and cut angles moreso than many HUGE goalies. To me that implies that he has the skating to patrol the full scope of the crease, whereas other big guys tend to stay deep since i) they can and ii) it reduces the lateral distance one needs to cover. I hate it... cut the damn angle like a smaller goalie would and you'd be unbeatable down-low and anywhere except top corners. Skinner generally gets this... he's not perfect, but he's much better than most.

5) What's "micro up/down". Are you talking about "V-H" = post leg up and far-side leg down or "Reverse V-H" (opposite of VH)?? Skinner doesn't do any V-H (it's very out of fashion) and does a tonne of RVH... actually (like many NHL goalies) he over-relies on it. That's why he gets sniped up by his earlobes on the short side. I hate it... but he definitely relies heavily on it, so not sure what you mean.

6) Maybe you mean butterfly pushes (some people call it pro-fly)? Like when you are down in butterfly, but raise one knee slightly to edge yourself and slide from one slide to another? To your skating point above, Skinner doesn't do a lot of pro-fly, but he's so big the distance from one post to the other when in RVH isn't much, so those pushes are much less obvious than for a smaller guy. I do think he could probably benefit from adding more of that to his bag of tricks for recovery pushes when he's out on top of the blue paint.



I still don't get this. When does a modern goalie actually need to to the splits? Even on a 2-1 cross ice pass, I'd much rather have my goalie sell out fully with a full-stretched leading leg and a foundational knee on the trailing leg (like a classic "half butterfly") so that they can have their upper body and gloves in the play, be able to jam the breaks on with leading edge if required, and flop forward only if necessary. That's how most guys do it and it doesn't require a huge amount of flexibility... just basic flexibility...

Here's a few good examples from Bobrovsky last year. He's in the midst of his trailing leg push, so his leading knee is on the ice first (his trailing knee would start baring weight next, so that he could lift his leading knee if he needed to stretch any further)... but the point is look at the groin, that's nowhere near a splits. It isn't required, and in any case it limits what you can do next because if you don't have either knee bearing weight, so you can't edge anymore.

View attachment 955519
^ look at this one, groin is a pretty comfortable 90 degrees
View attachment 955518
^ This one isn't full stretch yet, if he needs to, trailing knee goes down and leading knee rises slightly to kick toward post (as below). Plus if McAvoy makes the cut, trailing knee takes weight, leading skate edges in and he's ready to push the opposite way. This requires F'N HUGE POWER in your hips and groin, but not necessarily flexibility.

View attachment 955516
^ Here he's at his limit, trailing knee is down, but leading knee is up... you can't see it because of the way pads work these days (they are on very loose), but his leading leg is fully straight from ankle to hip and his hip is still 6-12" off the ice... ie not splits.

Interesting Post. Appreciate the perspective of someone who's played the position.

On your phenotype/stylistic comment. I particularly agree, while Skinner just isn't the same type of goalie Quick is or say the upcoming Wolf. Stylistically he's much more like a Kuemper or Hellybucyk, who despite being one of the best goalies in the League, isn't really known for those game saving cross crease robbery type saves. He's huge, and nearly positionally perfect, and his economy of movement puts him in the right spots quickly and concisely almost all the time. Of course not saying Skinner is anywhere as good as Helly, but stylistically that's who his benchmark should be. Not someone like Quick. On that front, I'm happy to hear Skinner has started working with the same guy who's been with Helly since day 1, in Francillia.

When I say splits I don't mean full on splits, more so just using the word as a short hand to say flexibility. You are right that full splits doesn't happen often in the modern game and if it did you'd be exposing the top of the net cause you lose the ability to cover the ice while also maintaining as high of an upright position your physicality allows. I believe Mike Smith worked specifically one season on this and it was noticeable in the results. No longer belly flopping off a lateral moving butterfly, and with much more top of the net coverage.

But in terms of Stu's flexibility though, I think we can see limitations. When he does need to go into as extended of a butterfly, you can see a limit in his stretch and sometimes he needs to recoil his legs back to comfortable position after making that stretch. Whereas other goalies can sit into the position more smoothly and comfortably and can sustain the position longer. That's my eye assessment anyways. Thoughts on that?

 

[K1984]

Maybe you haven't seen the posts (here and elsewhere) but there are a number of fans that refuse to assign any blame to Skinner when he has a bad game, regardless with him being one of the statistically worst goalies in the league this season, and inconsistent in years past

Sure. Do you think they make it to the Finals if they keep Skinner in for the Vancouver series? He was horrendous in that series and in the series vs Vegas the year before.

I think there might be one or two fans like that.

If anything it's the other way around. Pretty much any loss with Skinner in net is met with "it's all his fault" ad nauseam in the post game thread no matter how much that is actually true or not. Just look at the PGT of the last three games we lost with Skinner in net (they're few and far between lately). The overarching theme seems to be that losses are only because of Skinner among a significant portion of fans.

 

[TheNumber4]

Yeah. Plus the same posters will say you CANNOT use Pickards better record or stats as comparison because he plays less games and easier games but I guess in comparison to when Koski was the starter its fair and notable point to make. haha.

I agree that in no way is Skinner a better goalie than Koski. They are the same. The diff as you noted is we have a better team now, and certainly with better D and defensive play. I mean the presence of Ekholm alone is a quantum difference. He added a shutdown D element to the club that it just didn't have.

I think the strangest thing I see in this thread is suggestions of attribution, that Skinner should be evaluated, or is by some on the basis of his W-L record. A point that even dubiously misses that Pickards record is almost always better. With Pickard being an imminently available goalie that still manages to elicit convo on who's better.

There's no perfect statistic to determine goaltender quality outside of team context. But the best we have is GSAX. Which Stu haters will use all the time to say he's worse than this or that goalie? But when it comes to Kosko all of a sudden we can't use those numbers?

On that front we have clear indication of who is better over a long sample size (2 seasons worth):

Kosko:
-6.8
-10.2

Stu:
+6.8
+2.0

Now if these numbers were close, you can shrug it off as errors in the Gsax stat itself or it's inability to capture team quality differences. But this margin is enormous. Kosko sucked balls. Stu has been average for us.

On Picard, the largest sample we have is last year. Playing on the exact same team. Pickard obviously getting the easier starts (which i believe you only recently admitted him as having). And Stu was 2.0 vs. Pickard's 0.1 Gsax. This year is a different story, but this year isn't over yet either, with Stu trending up just like last year.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I think there might be one or two fans like that.

If anything it's the other way around. Pretty much any loss with Skinner in net is met with "it's all his fault" ad nauseam in the post game thread no matter how much that is actually true or not. Just look at the PGT of the last three games we lost with Skinner in net (they're few and far between lately). The overarching theme seems to be that losses are only because of Skinner among a significant portion of fans.

As one of his "Supporters" I recognize that no, he's not a great goalie. He's inconsistent and prone to bad stretches. In an ideal scenario he's still backing up Campbell and brought along slowly but here we are. I point the finger squarely at management and the scout who thought Jack Campbell was the solution. I also point the finger at the crap goalie coach who has overseen a carousel of mediocre goalies that haven't improved under his tutelage.

At the same time many people around here treat him as the sole reason we don't have a Cup. There are so many factors that go into winning or losing a Cup. This team has been consistently called a Cup contender for many years after that first playoff run in 2016-17. Man, some people in the media thought we'd win the Cup the following year and we know what happened there. f***ing Chiarelli. In 2020 we got embarrassed by a terrible Blackhawks team that was nowhere near a playoff spot. We should've beaten the pants off them but didn't. Same with the Jets the following year. A complete paper tiger that, outside of 2017-18 has been a complete afterthought in the playoffs. We weren't beating the Avs in 2022. We just weren't. (Also Mike Smith lol but even then we still weren't beating them)

McDavid and Draisatl are a wondrous pair but they don't guarantee us anything. It takes everyone on the ice and a bit of luck to win the Cup. If you hate Skinner, hate the circumstances that placed a rookie backup as the starter in the first place. Hate the team that can't draft or scout worth a damn.

 

[TheNumber4]

I think there might be one or two fans like that.

If anything it's the other way around. Pretty much any loss with Skinner in net is met with "it's all his fault" ad nauseam in the post game thread no matter how much that is actually true or not. Just look at the PGT of the last three games we lost with Skinner in net (they're few and far between lately). The overarching theme seems to be that losses are only because of Skinner among a significant portion of fans.

Agreed. On the spectrum between irrational defense of Stu vs. irrational blame of Stu, it's skewed much much towards irrational blame from what i've seen.

Alot of the "irrational defence" of Stu is misunderstood as well, as it's just plain old defensive breakdown analysis, that would be and should be done with ANY goaltender in net if you want to figure out how well our team is playing and how we can improve. It's obviously what Knob will focus on too.

 

[Oilhawks]

I think there might be one or two fans like that.

If anything it's the other way around. Pretty much any loss with Skinner in net is met with "it's all his fault" ad nauseam in the post game thread no matter how much that is actually true or not. Just look at the PGT of the last three games we lost with Skinner in net (they're few and far between lately). The overarching theme seems to be that losses are only because of Skinner among a significant portion of fans.

To be fair, his horrendous start and history of inconsistency have provided some fuel for that fire. I just want them to start Pickard more to give Stu a rest, and if Pickard can’t handle tandem duties, get someone who can.

No big fan of Skinner but I’d like to see another tandem goalie brought in than just ditch him altogether (also because IMO the new meta of cup winning teams is having a solid tandem instead of “elite” starter). When he’s on and not overworked he’s a solid (if overrated) goalie

 

[Drivesaitl]

Interesting Post. Appreciate the perspective of someone who's played the position.

On your phenotype/stylistic comment. I particularly agree, while Skinner just isn't the same type of goalie Quick is or say the upcoming Wolf. Stylistically he's much more like a Kuemper or Hellybucyk, who despite being one of the best goalies in the League, isn't really known for those game saving cross crease robbery type saves. He's huge, and nearly positionally perfect, and his economy of movement puts him in the right spots quickly and concisely almost all the time. Of course not saying Skinner is anywhere as good as Helly, but stylistically that's who his benchmark should be. Not someone like Quick. On that front, I'm happy to hear Skinner has started working with the same guy who's been with Helly since day 1, in Francillia.

When I say splits I don't mean full on splits, more so just using the word as a short hand to say flexibility. You are right that full splits doesn't happen often in the modern game and if it did you'd be exposing the top of the net cause you lose the ability to cover the ice while also maintaining as high of an upright position your physicality allows. I believe Mike Smith worked specifically one season on this and it was noticeable in the results. No longer belly flopping off a lateral moving butterfly, and with much more top of the net coverage.

But in terms of Stu's flexibility though, I think we can see limitations. When he does need to go into as extended of a butterfly, you can see a limit in his stretch and sometimes he needs to recoil his legs back to comfortable position after making that stretch. Whereas other goalies can sit into the position more smoothly and comfortably and can sustain the position longer. That's my eye assessment anyways. Thoughts on that?

Pretty much the same thing I was saying in my reply to buck. I've added that Stu's pads across isn't wide even when he's stretching in butterfly he can't stretch into a full inverted T so he just does a v and as you mention he has trouble remaining in that position.

Agreed. On the spectrum between irrational defense of Stu vs. irrational blame of Stu, it's skewed much much towards irrational blame from what i've seen.

Alot of the "irrational defence" of Stu is misunderstood as well, as it's just plain old defensive breakdown analysis, that would be and should be done with ANY goaltender in net if you want to figure out how well our team is playing and how we can improve. It's obviously what Knob will focus on too.

Can't speak for all but for me part of it is just the overvaluation and polishing of Stu that goes on in the telecasts and that I just love quality goalies. So that I really want one, and see them as so important. Really miss that aspect and in my book the last wizard we had was Cujo. The last decent goalie we had was Talbot. Just such a shame we've gone the entire McDrai are without a quality goalie.

 

[Soundwave]

If we're not doing f*** all else, I'd be OK with Quick. His age is far from ideal and he'll probably gas out but it's better than nothing if Stu runs into a shit stretch.

 

[TheNumber4]

Pretty much the same thing I was saying in my reply to buck. I've added that Stu's pads across isn't wide even when he's stretching in butterfly he can't stretch into a full inverted T so he just does a v and as you mention he has trouble remaining in that position.


Can't speak for all but for me part of it is just the overvaluation and polishing of Stu that goes on in the telecasts and that I just love quality goalies. So that I really want one, and see them as so important. Really miss that aspect and in my book the last wizard we had was Cujo. The last decent goalie we had was Talbot. Just such a shame we've gone the entire McDrai are without a quality goalie.

Yeh, i know years ago we already had this conversation about Stu's overall ability. The funny thing is, your scouting report and mine on his physical ability are not that far off. Lateral movement and overall athleticism are the knocks. But whereas I give him credit for positioning and being solid on muffin shots, you do not. Like you don't really see straight on shots beating him under the pad, or beating him between body and arm. I see these more frequently in much more athletic goalies than Stu. So I contend that that HAS to be an pro of Stu's game otherwise how does he get to average if the other parts of his game are sub-average.

Telecasts, especially home-town ones will always pump home town players. Especially if that player had a good game. Just the nature of the beast, I don't see why that should frustrate anyone. Atleast not to the point where it seems like you have a personal beef with that player.