Post-Game Talk: YOLO and HNY HFOIL

iCanada

Registered User
Feb 6, 2010
20,882
22,356
Edmonton
I've never seen it. There's a ton of noise but the loudest is generally for the wobbles in his game. He can make spectacular gaffes and that often dominates the conversation. We're having this convo in a game thread in which the goalie's save% was .963.

He's not 'the man' on this team. That's McDavid and the organization has shovelled its money on forward depth; will need to upgrade this defense for a deep Cup run; and figure out their collective confidence with the imperfect development phase goaltender behind the talent and money on this roster. There's lots that bugs me about the Skinner persona but I try to step back from these prejudices to both critique and praise. But what I never do is let management off the hook for brutal decisions and choices that have this team running with a wildcard in net.

That's the thing though - sure the .963 number is exceptionally impressive, but the actual game Skinner played - while good - wasn't all that impressive.

Utah had nothing on the night. 5 high danger scoring chances and 1.6 expected goals.

That's not on Skinner - that's on our team being the best defense in the league analytically. We're in a league of our own in terms of chances we give up while being top three in chances generated.

Screenshot_20250102-152439.png


I don't think we do need to upgrade the defense - that's a luxury. We need a backup plan for if Skinner faulters come playoff time like he did against Vancouver, and we need to have confidence we can win a goaltending battle in atleast one game in the finals.
 

Dazed and Confused

Ludicrous speed, GO!
Aug 10, 2007
6,493
3,116
Berlin, Germany
Regarding the lines, I don't mind swapping things up and getting Hyman away from McDavid.

Though I feel like Hyman should be with Drai and Podz, giving you a line that can physically dominate, à la the Foegele-Byfield-Jeannot line we saw in LA.

And although I like giving Brown a few games in the top 6 as a reward for his strong play, I want to see Arvidsson get an extended look with McDavid, as I think he's a better fit there vs. with Drai.

RNH-McDavid-Arvidsson
Podz-Drai-Hyman
Janmark-Henrique-Brown (by far the best 3rd line we've seen this season)
Perry(Kane)-Philp-Kap
 
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Behind Enemy Lines

Registered User
Feb 19, 2003
17,295
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Vancouver
That's the thing though - sure the .963 number is exceptionally impressive, but the actual game Skinner played - while good - wasn't all that impressive.

Utah had nothing on the night. 5 high danger scoring chances and 1.6 expected goals.

That's not on Skinner - that's on our team being the best defense in the league analytically. We're in a league of our own in terms of chances we give up while being top three in chances generated.

View attachment 954968

I don't think we do need to upgrade the defense - that's a luxury. We need a backup plan for if Skinner faulters come playoff time like he did against Vancouver, and we need to have confidence we can win a goaltending battle in atleast one game in the finals.
It's not exceptionally impressive. The Oilers played their dominant game and limited their breakdowns. The goal Utah scored was a stoppable puck imo, though with two defensive breakdowns that created the high danger opportunity. I like x-stats mostly at a team level to reinforce quality of play. Less as a definite tool to provide certainty on individual performance (within a high speed, collision sport with tons of randomness and variables).

This organization in its budgeting and deployment have invested its money on tilting ice with elite forwards. They give up way fewer chances which speaks to their strategy and talent. However few defensive breakdowns are often collassal gaffes which lead to high danger opportunities and often goals. The ask has been for the window replacement, development phase goaltender to provide average goaltending while letting the money pucks to be the difference. Following an awful personal and team crater in October, the goaltending has largely held up to the average expectation (per pedigree and salary/cap investment).

If you look at the Knoblauch's defense deployment, it is very clear that they are pushing a heavy top four group with Kulak elevated for 3+ minutes per game and utilized with Nurse for key situational in-game play. They're establishing Emberson as a reliable 3RD with top PK responsibilities. Stetcher is being deployed as he has been on playoff type teams (which he's been as a cheap deadline depth add several times) with limited minutes within the 10 - 14 minute range (last night under 11 toi. against a non playoff, road team on a back end of a back to back. He'll be a #7 or #8 dman after trade deadline. Which is fine, Oiler management did their depth d buying on July 1 with waiver poison pill multi-year deals for Stetcher and Brown.

As I've said I'd upgrade to a veteran 1A goaltender but this team will be upgrading its d-corp without question. But again this is a management group fail on goaltending that now spans Holland, Jackson, and is in Bowman/Jackson's court regarding Skinner or chase a new guy.
 

bucks_oil

Registered User
Aug 25, 2005
8,833
5,216
Goalies have always been credited for Ws though. The Wins column for a goalie is about as flawed as a stat +/-. Wins are obviously the result of everything that happened in the game and encompasses much more than what the goalies did or didn’t do. But just traditionally they make “wins” a goalie stat, and it’s spoken like that by media, even though it doesn’t make much sense.

Well… as a goalie… I’ve always hated “wins” as a goalie stat… my first season I had only one win, a 1-0 shutout…. But then, as I got older, I didn’t hate it quite as much.

Ultimately, as Fuhr would say, you gotta stop the last/next one… nothing else really matters as long as you win.

And that’s true… this game is a pile of errors by all players on the ice… on good teams errors are followed by good coverage and compensation, often but not always including the goalie.

On bad teams one guys error begets another error and it only typically takes 2-3 in succession before you are down a goal.

Experienced coaches and players (especially goalies) know this. And it’s ultimately the wins that matter (and implicit in this is how you all support each other).

Just keep swimming baby

I would say that’s one strength of Skinner, he’s not a crybaby… he just keeps playing and typically doesn’t crater even after a bad goal. (While meanwhile this board goes apoplectic)
 

The Panther

Registered User
Mar 25, 2014
20,320
17,459
Tokyo, Japan
The crap Stu Skinner takes on forums like this, from Oilers" "fans", is staggering to me.

Let me preface this by saying I don't particularly like Skinner, nor do I think he's a particularly good goalie. However, we do know that he (with some help from Pickard) is good enough to take the current-era club to the 7th game of the Stanley Cup Finals. I mean, we know that. We also know that he outduelled Cam Talbot and Jake Oettinger in the 1st and 3rd rounds last spring. He also allowed fewer goals against and had a better save percentage than Sergei Bobrovsky in the Cup Finals last spring.

But Oilers' fans (most of you) will never acknowledge this. You will simply beat Skinner to death for every bad goal he allows, allowing your confirmation bias to rule over your rational judgement.

In Skinner's last 11 games, he is 8-2-1 with a .921.

In Skinner's last four seasons (three as the top guy), he has gone 85-44-13. During these four seasons, he has the 21st-best save percentage of 69 goalies who've played 50+ games. The Oilers are around a league-average defensive club, I'd say, during those four seasons (half of which was without Ekholm and thus no legit top-shutdown D on the club), so I think it's fair to say S. Skinner has been about the 20th-best goalie in the League the past four seasons. (This is not even taking into account that be backstopped a team to the 7th game of the Finals.)

Of course, these statistical facts will be ignored by Skinner's many detractors, who will whip him for weeks for a bad goal allowed while ignoring the bigger picture.

More to the point, though (and to show how disingenuous some of you are): SKINNER WAS NOT SUPPOSED TO BE THE TOP GUY. Skiner was drafted 78th overall and was expected to be the back-up for sure in 2023 and 2024, and probably to still be the back-up now or at least the co-top goalie. Yet he has performed as the 20th best goalie in the NHL for four seasons, most of those as the top guy, facing the League's best teams.

I'd say that is extrememly good 'bang-for-buck' and the fanbase, if at all rational, should be thankful of Skinner's above-expected level of performance.

______________________

Anyway, back to the Oilers at large: I'm enjoying the club as usual this season, but I feel they're too slow and old in the bottom-six. Need a little more zip and zoom than fossils like Perry and Ryan can provide. On the other hand, we do want a strong veteran presence heading into the playoffs.

Jeff Skinner seems okay to me, but the club clearly hasn't given him any chance to do what he does (i.e., play big minutes on the PP and score). So, like most fans, I'm kind of not getting why they signed him at all, if Knoblach never wanted to give him a chance. Given this, and given that they have too many soft-ish skilled forward, and given that Evander Kane will presumably be back before the playoffs, it seems to me the org should be looking for a way to phase-out J. Skinner (trade, buyout) and Derek Ryan (retirement, probably) to make room for Kane. Even better would be if they can get a younger, more physical forward to join the bottom six.

And yeah, they'd obviously like to get one more strong Dman on that blue-line. But wow, the team's collective defense has been WAY better than I'd expected so far this season, so...
 

Oilhawks

Like Some Snow-White Marble Eyes
Nov 24, 2011
29,319
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Counterpoint for the Stu apologists (and blamers of the rest of the team)

I posit that if Stu wasn't the feel gud hometown kid, he would be treated like Koskinen was (who I actually felt bad for).
 
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OilerTyler

Disgruntled
Jul 5, 2009
17,268
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Edmonton
Counterpoint for the Stu apologists (and blamers of the rest of the team)

I posit that if Stu wasn't the feel gud hometown kid, he would be treated like Koskinen was (who I actually felt bad for).

Nah, Koskinen was a below average goalie in three of his four seasons here and was being paid starter money. That's why the fans turned on him.

Skinner is being paid backup money and has still put up above average numbers every year while playing as our starter. Not to mention we've had way more team success with Skinner in net. He isn't really comparable to Koskinen at all.
 

TheNumber4

Registered User
Nov 11, 2011
47,756
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Counterpoint for the Stu apologists (and blamers of the rest of the team)

I posit that if Stu wasn't the feel gud hometown kid, he would be treated like Koskinen was (who I actually felt bad for).
I was a Kosko hopeful at the beginning but completely done with him after his last 2 years with us. I was on the Mike Smith train when peeps were still advoacting to put Kosko back in. And his last 2 years for us Kosko was way worse than anything Skinner provided for us. And Kosko was visually the better “big save” goalie but he was also much much worse at the muffin soft goals which Stu is solid on, but the Stu haters won’t admit it.

We got Stu haters saying Kosko was better. That’s not true AT ALL. But it’s been spoken about around here like that’s gospel by some just to take shots in on Stu.

Here’s Koskos numbers GSAx for his last 2 years, compared to Stu in the last 2 years:

Kosko:
-6.8
-10.2

Stu:
+6.8
+2.0

Here’s Koskos save percentages in those years compared to league average:

.899 vs. .908 (League Average)
.903 vs .907 (League Average)

Here’s Stu’s:
.914 vs. .904 (League Average)
.905 vs .903 (League Average)

Kosko was below league average and had horrific GSAx in his last 2 years here. Stu’s were average to above average. Kosko was paid a ridiculous and stupid $4.5M per year, and Stu is paid a cheap and a slightly undervalued 2.75M.

But the Stu haters will say inaccurately that Kosko was even better than Stu just to get some more shots in on Stu. When it’s objectively not true.

Also, this notion that Stu support automatically means you are “blamers of the rest of the team” needs to be put to rest. There is no truth in it. Just cause a fan cares about defensive breakdowns and thinks it’s a thing to address in our team doesn’t mean they are doing that for the express and sole purpose to defend Stu. I did the same shit for Smith and Kosko and Pickard, cause surprise surprise I give a shit if our team is playing like crap defensively or if we have shitty defenceman like Matt Benning in the line up.

Im a big believer in this TEAM and what this TEAM can do, which is why I think we can win with an Average to above average goalie in net. Stu support does not equal shitting on the rest of team.
 

Oilhawks

Like Some Snow-White Marble Eyes
Nov 24, 2011
29,319
53,387
Nah, Koskinen was a below average goalie in three of his four seasons here and was being paid starter money. That's why the fans turned on him.

Skinner is being paid backup money and has still put up above average numbers every year while playing as our starter. Not to mention we've had way more team success with Skinner in net. He isn't really comparable to Koskinen at all.

To the bolded, yup.

Koskinen was not good. But he had a much worse defense and forward corps in front of him.
 

Oilhawks

Like Some Snow-White Marble Eyes
Nov 24, 2011
29,319
53,387
I was a Kosko hopeful at the beginning but completely done with him after his last 2 years with us. I was on the Mike Smith train when peeps were still advoacting to put Kosko back in. And his last 2 years for us Kosko was way worse than anything Skinner provided for us. And Kosko was visually the better “big save” goalie but he was also much much worse at the muffin soft goals which Stu is solid on, but the Stu haters won’t admit it.

We got Stu haters saying Kosko was better. That’s not true AT ALL. But it’s been spoken about around here like that’s gospel by some just to take shots in on Stu.

Here’s Koskos numbers GSAx for his last 2 years, compared to Stu in the last 2 years:

Kosko:
-6.8
-10.2

Stu:
+6.8
+2.0

Here’s Koskos save percentages in those years compared to league average:

.899 vs. .908 (League Average)
.903 vs .907 (League Average)

Here’s Stu’s:
.914 vs. .904 (League Average)
.905 vs .903 (League Average)

Kosko was below league average and had horrific GSAx in his last 2 years here. Stu’s were average to above average. Kosko was paid a ridiculous and stupid $4.5M per year, and Stu is paid a cheap and a slightly undervalued 2.75M.

But the Stu haters will say inaccurately that Kosko was even better than Stu just to get some more shots in on Stu. When it’s objectively not true.

Also, this notion that Stu support automatically means you are “blamers of the rest of the team” needs to be put to rest. There is no truth in it. Just cause a fan cares about defensive breakdowns and thinks it’s a thing to address in our team doesn’t mean they are doing that for the express and sole purpose to defend Stu. I did the same shit for Smith and Kosko and Pickard, cause surprise surprise I give a shit if our team is playing like crap defensively or if we have shitty defenceman like Matt Benning in the line up.

Im a big believer in this TEAM and what this TEAM can do, which is why I think we can win with an Average to above average goalie in net. Stu support does not equal shitting on the rest of team.

I believe in the team as well. I don't believe in Stu as the starter

They need a more consistent and athletically gifted goalie that doesn't give up so many of the few high danger chances he sees.

This team wins a Cup with him as backup / 1B
 
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TheNumber4

Registered User
Nov 11, 2011
47,756
59,246
I believe in the team as well. I don't believe in Stu as the starter

They need a more consistent and athletically gifted goalie that doesn't give up so many of the few high danger chances he sees.

This team wins a Cup with him as backup / 1B
And that’s what it pretty much boils down to between the Stu supporters and Stu haters. Your belief in whether this team can win with him or not. Personally, I believe we can for various reasons.

For example, the goalie opposite from Stu in the finals had a lower save percentage than Stu and they won. And despite the narrative, Bob gave up more muffin back breaking goals than Stu gave up. Plus we were f***ed by the refs hard throughout that series but credit to Maurice on being more experienced on that front. They won with a bad Bob, so why can’t we?

Avs, which I think are team most similar to our team build of elite superstars and high powered offence and speed, won with a relative nobody Francouz in net. So why can’t we?

Another reason I think we can win is that every single odds maker and analytical model has us as the cup favorites by a decent margin and they are making that analysis WITH Stu in net. Are these maths and professionals odds makers all wrong?

In any case to each his own. If there was a goalie out there that is realistically available thats for sure a better bet than Stu. Go get him and our chances only increase.

Regardless of this difference of opinion I think people get a bit tired of the seemingly seething hate for Stu. None of it he has personally earned, he was our back plan and essentially the McDavid era saviour after the Campbell fiasco. He’s paid appropriately as well. I get not thinking Stu is the guy, he has only shown to be average to sometimes above average, but the seething hate he gets around here seems over the top.

For years I wanted to get rid of Ceci, but i didn’t call him a fat faced piece of crap with a stupid big head after every single game, good or bad performance. I didn’t relish and celebrate when he failed. When this place sounds off on Stu it’s almost like reading CP sound off on their hatred for Oil. That kind of negativity gets tiring. But it is what it is i guess.

To the bolded, yup.

Koskinen was not good. But he had a much worse defense and forward corps in front of him.
This is true. But GSAx stats, which Kosko was caved in compared to Stu mitigates for some of those team quality effects.
 

TheNumber4

Registered User
Nov 11, 2011
47,756
59,246
Well… as a goalie… I’ve always hated “wins” as a goalie stat… my first season I had only one win, a 1-0 shutout…. But then, as I got older, I didn’t hate it quite as much.

Ultimately, as Fuhr would say, you gotta stop the last/next one… nothing else really matters as long as you win.

And that’s true… this game is a pile of errors by all players on the ice… on good teams errors are followed by good coverage and compensation, often but not always including the goalie.

On bad teams one guys error begets another error and it only typically takes 2-3 in succession before you are down a goal.

Experienced coaches and players (especially goalies) know this. And it’s ultimately the wins that matter (and implicit in this is how you all support each other).

Just keep swimming baby

I would say that’s one strength of Skinner, he’s not a crybaby… he just keeps playing and typically doesn’t crater even after a bad goal. (While meanwhile this board goes apoplectic)
I would agree that there’s truth in that often quoted Fuhr saying. And he no doubt gained the necessary reputation to say that credibly cause when the chips were down and it was two mostly even teams, he was the one that could make that extra save over that opposing goalie.

Or it definitely may seem so, cause on the other hand I’m sure the other goalie aren’t facing Gretzky and friends level scoring ability and clutch factor lol. So a higher level view of what goes into Ws of course makes sense too.

And yeh I would agree that while Skinner probably will never have the big save ability of Fuhr, he does have the ability to bounce back from bad goals or bad games. That’s a good quality to have mentally as a goalie. Something I do think Stu works on and tries to improve.
 

TheNumber4

Registered User
Nov 11, 2011
47,756
59,246
The crap Stu Skinner takes on forums like this, from Oilers" "fans", is staggering to me.

Let me preface this by saying I don't particularly like Skinner, nor do I think he's a particularly good goalie. However, we do know that he (with some help from Pickard) is good enough to take the current-era club to the 7th game of the Stanley Cup Finals. I mean, we know that. We also know that he outduelled Cam Talbot and Jake Oettinger in the 1st and 3rd rounds last spring. He also allowed fewer goals against and had a better save percentage than Sergei Bobrovsky in the Cup Finals last spring.

But Oilers' fans (most of you) will never acknowledge this. You will simply beat Skinner to death for every bad goal he allows, allowing your confirmation bias to rule over your rational judgement.

In Skinner's last 11 games, he is 8-2-1 with a .921.

In Skinner's last four seasons (three as the top guy), he has gone 85-44-13. During these four seasons, he has the 21st-best save percentage of 69 goalies who've played 50+ games. The Oilers are around a league-average defensive club, I'd say, during those four seasons (half of which was without Ekholm and thus no legit top-shutdown D on the club), so I think it's fair to say S. Skinner has been about the 20th-best goalie in the League the past four seasons. (This is not even taking into account that be backstopped a team to the 7th game of the Finals.)

Of course, these statistical facts will be ignored by Skinner's many detractors, who will whip him for weeks for a bad goal allowed while ignoring the bigger picture.

More to the point, though (and to show how disingenuous some of you are): SKINNER WAS NOT SUPPOSED TO BE THE TOP GUY. Skiner was drafted 78th overall and was expected to be the back-up for sure in 2023 and 2024, and probably to still be the back-up now or at least the co-top goalie. Yet he has performed as the 20th best goalie in the NHL for four seasons, most of those as the top guy, facing the League's best teams.

I'd say that is extrememly good 'bang-for-buck' and the fanbase, if at all rational, should be thankful of Skinner's above-expected level of performance.

______________________

Anyway, back to the Oilers at large: I'm enjoying the club as usual this season, but I feel they're too slow and old in the bottom-six. Need a little more zip and zoom than fossils like Perry and Ryan can provide. On the other hand, we do want a strong veteran presence heading into the playoffs.

Jeff Skinner seems okay to me, but the club clearly hasn't given him any chance to do what he does (i.e., play big minutes on the PP and score). So, like most fans, I'm kind of not getting why they signed him at all, if Knoblach never wanted to give him a chance. Given this, and given that they have too many soft-ish skilled forward, and given that Evander Kane will presumably be back before the playoffs, it seems to me the org should be looking for a way to phase-out J. Skinner (trade, buyout) and Derek Ryan (retirement, probably) to make room for Kane. Even better would be if they can get a younger, more physical forward to join the bottom six.

And yeah, they'd obviously like to get one more strong Dman on that blue-line. But wow, the team's collective defense has been WAY better than I'd expected so far this season, so...
Agreed with all. And specifically to the bolded I will say, Yes, it's true. How can it not be, we saw it with our own eyes.

So while I understand that people say he's not an elite goalie. That's true. And I understand wanting a better goalie (if we can find one and afford one) to increase our chances. What I don't understand is this notion that we have NO chance with Stu in Net.

If it was the case that we have NO chance with Stu in net, then why were we 1 goal/save away from winning it all? Why are all oddsmakers and analytical models saying we have not only a chance, but the BEST chance at the Cup WITH Stu in net?
 

Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
26,953
22,942
Waterloo Ontario
The crap Stu Skinner takes on forums like this, from Oilers" "fans", is staggering to me.

Let me preface this by saying I don't particularly like Skinner, nor do I think he's a particularly good goalie. However, we do know that he (with some help from Pickard) is good enough to take the current-era club to the 7th game of the Stanley Cup Finals. I mean, we know that. We also know that he outduelled Cam Talbot and Jake Oettinger in the 1st and 3rd rounds last spring. He also allowed fewer goals against and had a better save percentage than Sergei Bobrovsky in the Cup Finals last spring.

But Oilers' fans (most of you) will never acknowledge this. You will simply beat Skinner to death for every bad goal he allows, allowing your confirmation bias to rule over your rational judgement.

In Skinner's last 11 games, he is 8-2-1 with a .921.

In Skinner's last four seasons (three as the top guy), he has gone 85-44-13. During these four seasons, he has the 21st-best save percentage of 69 goalies who've played 50+ games. The Oilers are around a league-average defensive club, I'd say, during those four seasons (half of which was without Ekholm and thus no legit top-shutdown D on the club), so I think it's fair to say S. Skinner has been about the 20th-best goalie in the League the past four seasons. (This is not even taking into account that be backstopped a team to the 7th game of the Finals.)

Of course, these statistical facts will be ignored by Skinner's many detractors, who will whip him for weeks for a bad goal allowed while ignoring the bigger picture.

More to the point, though (and to show how disingenuous some of you are): SKINNER WAS NOT SUPPOSED TO BE THE TOP GUY. Skiner was drafted 78th overall and was expected to be the back-up for sure in 2023 and 2024, and probably to still be the back-up now or at least the co-top goalie. Yet he has performed as the 20th best goalie in the NHL for four seasons, most of those as the top guy, facing the League's best teams.

I'd say that is extrememly good 'bang-for-buck' and the fanbase, if at all rational, should be thankful of Skinner's above-expected level of performance.

______________________

Anyway, back to the Oilers at large: I'm enjoying the club as usual this season, but I feel they're too slow and old in the bottom-six. Need a little more zip and zoom than fossils like Perry and Ryan can provide. On the other hand, we do want a strong veteran presence heading into the playoffs.

Jeff Skinner seems okay to me, but the club clearly hasn't given him any chance to do what he does (i.e., play big minutes on the PP and score). So, like most fans, I'm kind of not getting why they signed him at all, if Knoblach never wanted to give him a chance. Given this, and given that they have too many soft-ish skilled forward, and given that Evander Kane will presumably be back before the playoffs, it seems to me the org should be looking for a way to phase-out J. Skinner (trade, buyout) and Derek Ryan (retirement, probably) to make room for Kane. Even better would be if they can get a younger, more physical forward to join the bottom six.

And yeah, they'd obviously like to get one more strong Dman on that blue-line. But wow, the team's collective defense has been WAY better than I'd expected so far this season, so...
Ultimately, my issue with Skinner is that he is inconsistent. He is capable of playing very well for long stretches but when he is bad he loses you a game you should win. And unfortunately that happens more than him winning you a game you should lose. The main problem is that in the playoffs his inconsistency can be fatal. Last year he was good enough to get them to game 7 of the final but also nearly saw them eliminated by the Canucks.

But he also makes $2.6M on the cap and that matters. It is the price of a solid backup and it allows the team cap space to spend elsewhere. Moreover, right now I don't see any reasonable alternative.
 
Apr 12, 2010
76,329
35,443
Calgary
Nah, Koskinen was a below average goalie in three of his four seasons here and was being paid starter money. That's why the fans turned on him.

Skinner is being paid backup money and has still put up above average numbers every year while playing as our starter. Not to mention we've had way more team success with Skinner in net. He isn't really comparable to Koskinen at all.
To be fair, it wasn't his fault he was paid what he was. Chiarelli was allowed free reign to throw grenade after grenade at the team before he was mercifully canned. Would've liked to see him start after we went down 2-0 to Colorado but it is what it is.

But goaltending has been an issue more often than it hasn't been since the dynasty ended. For every Cujo and Roloson and 2016-17 Talbot there's....

1735915824107.png
 

K1984

Registered User
Feb 7, 2008
16,016
18,104
Ultimately, my issue with Skinner is that he is inconsistent. He is capable of playing very well for long stretches but when he is bad he loses you a game you should win. And unfortunately that happens more than him winning you a game you should lose. The main problem is that in the playoffs his inconsistency can be fatal. Last year he was good enough to get them to game 7 of the final but also nearly saw them eliminated by the Canucks.

But he also makes $2.6M on the cap and that matters. It is the price of a solid backup and it allows the team cap space to spend elsewhere. Moreover, right now I don't see any reasonable alternative.

I think that some perspective is required with Skinner that has seemed to have completely left some people.

How many goalies in this league period have a record over their past ~10 games like this?

SS.png


He has a single bad game* (which coincided with decade of darkness level of team defence incompetence) against the Panthers and people here were absolutely skewering him. It was ridiculous. Every goalie in the league have bad games, the best just don't do it as often (hint - maybe once every 10 games like we see above).

I have no problem ragging on him when he's bad (and he can be bad), and I do think that a better backup should be a top priority. However, if he's playing well some people seem to struggle to admit it, and those same folks seem to sit in the weeds and pounce whenever Skinner gives them anything at all to chew on.

If he goes back to the worst version of himself, or something in between, or starts a cycle of 2-3 good games and 2-3 bad games again I'll be the first to jump on the wagon skewering him. However, he's been very good since mid-November. Wish more of us could have the collective maturity to not go "SEE I TOLD YOU!" if he happens to have a single bad game among a bunch of good games around it. He's objectively playing well right now no matter how much some refuse to acknowledge it.

*In before "HE HAD A BAD GAME IN LA TOO!" as if that eliminates all the .925+ games surrounding it.
 

bucks_oil

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And yeh I would agree that while Skinner probably will never have the big save ability of Fuhr, he does have the ability to bounce back from bad goals or bad games. That’s a good quality to have mentally as a goalie. Something I do think Stu works on and tries to improve.

I agree on the bolded... to me that's his biggest strength. As you say, he only rarely makes "HUGE" saves, but his strength is that mostly he puts himself in position to make easy saves and he does that pretty consistently, whether he was outcompeted athletically on the last play, or exposed the last game, or not... Skinner always gets right back to doing what he can do.

That's pretty rare, it's an emotional position, so that's a huge skill he can trade on. If he keeps working on other elements of his game, he will be a solid, never HOF-level, but solid, NHL starter.

I personally think it's gonna take him a while, since a goalie like him really needs to pair his mental resilience with tactical experience. He needs a few more years of reps for that.

That's why, no fault of Pickard, I'm fully on board with bringing in a 1B. I think Talbot would be an obvious answer given his chemistry with the boys.
 

bucks_oil

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I think that some perspective is required with Skinner that has seemed to have completely left some people.

How many goalies in this league period have a record over their past ~10 games like this?

View attachment 955481

He has a single bad game* (which coincided with decade of darkness level of team defence incompetence) against the Panthers and people here were absolutely skewering him. It was ridiculous. Every goalie in the league have bad games, the best just don't do it as often (hint - maybe once every 10 games like we see above).

I have no problem ragging on him when he's bad (and he can be bad), and I do think that a better backup should be a top priority. However, if he's playing well some people seem to struggle to admit it, and those same folks seem to sit in the weeds and pounce whenever Skinner gives them anything at all to chew on.

If he goes back to the worst version of himself, or something in between, or starts a cycle of 2-3 good games and 2-3 bad games again I'll be the first to jump on the wagon skewering him. However, he's been very good since mid-November. Wish more of us could have the collective maturity to not go "SEE I TOLD YOU!" if he happens to have a single bad game among a bunch of good games around it. He's objectively playing well right now no matter how much some refuse to acknowledge it.

*In before "HE HAD A BAD GAME IN LA TOO!" as if that eliminates all the .925+ games surrounding it.

100% agree

I often compare modern goaltending to golf, since that's how it feels to me as I continue working on my own game... You need that level of "how can I approach this next game, and be that much closer to perfect, given my own physical limitations".

Most of the Skinner haters see his obvious athletic limitations, but they don't see his strengths.

Skinner haters are out there wishing for a player nailing 400 yard drives that land in the fringe, and nailing one 25 foot beauty of a putt every 5 holes.

And Skinner is out there poking 200 yard drives down the fairway, 9 times out of 10, and missing every single 25 foot putt but placing it 12-18 inches from the pin for a gimme every time... and you end up having to buy his burger and beer every time you play him and can't figure out why.
 
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TB12

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100% agree

I often compare modern goaltending to golf, since that's how it feels to me as I continue working on my own game... You need that level of "how can I approach this next game, and be that much closer to perfect, given my own physical limitations".

Most of the Skinner haters see his obvious athletic limitations, but they don't see his strengths.

Skinner haters are out there wishing for a player nailing 400 yard drives that land in the fringe, and nailing one 25 foot beauty of a putt every 5 holes.

And Skinner is out there poking 200 yard drives down the fairway, 9 times out of 10, and missing every single 25 foot putt but placing it 12-18 inches from the pin for a gimme every time... and you end up having to buy his burger and beer every time you play him and can't figure out why.
Bad analogy lol. If a guy only hits it 200 yards, he's not winning his club championship, let alone a major (Stanley Cup). So in this scenario Stuuuu is like a 5 handicap at best? That isn't much of a compliment.
 
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bucks_oil

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here I'll help you out with my own mindset. Edmonton is a working class city. Most people develop an interest in career and prepare for that for years.

Particular to sports anybody that endeavors to have that as a career, and particularly in hockey, they train and play and do everything possible to be the best at that and often starting even preschool. Those that want to go pro, I've never heard athletes in present day say they never trained, never took it seriously, and couldn't even go up one flight of stairs without that being challenging.

The trouble with this is the years of his life (vast majority) where Skinner didn't train and prep in every bit of flexibility, strength, conditioning that are assets to pro goalies you can't just make that all up in the now. Supreme flexibility is had through mostly lifetime endeavor. Conditioning takes years.

Watch Skinner's poor butterfly form. (he's poor at stretching pads across relative to other NHL goalies and for his size, and thats just one aspect where not working on that for years has left him this terrible flexibility. Its just one example.

Thats the thing though. For his craft at this age he can only work on certain things. Some things are always going to be a problem, and deficiency because he didn't work on those lifelong as you have to to have supreme flexibility which is a major goalie requisite.

As far as training and prep right now I've been specific. Skinner has the laziest warmups and pregame of any goalie I've seen, ever, with the NHL Oilers. Its like he pretends at pregame edgework, flexes, skating etc. Very clear he half asses it and very clear as well when he tries to do lateral edgework with some force he often loses balance. This more than indicative he doesn't have it down. he doesn't do it enough to be consistent in movement. He has even fundamental skating difficulty. This features even in games where he's slow lumbering out or back in cage.

Another thing to watch for is how quickly proficient goalies can get up out of the Butterfly, and how many times without looking fatigued or cheating up or down. Skinner will often just stay down, or up, even as the situation in front of him requires one or the other. For instance Vasi or Quick may be up and down 5X times as much as situation merits because they have the athleticism to do that. They also feature micro up/down or one leg up or down that Skinner doesn't even have as a skillset. Skinner stays up or down with more latency because he can't spring up efficiently from butterfly. Again this is something that takes years of training.

Theres no excuse for stuff like that. Especially with the best training availability that NHL goalies have.

You can feel free to disagree with every point I've raised here but its the closest I'm prepared to go right now in speaking of the limitations

There is a lot of Strawman and a good deal of traditional Replacement bias in the above. I feel like there are probably a half-dozen of your posts on various players you decided to pick on (including several on RNH, who you now seem to finally appreciate... perhaps only because he took a discount) that start with: "This is a working class town and player so and so is lazy... don't ask me to dig up a link, you can see it in their demeanor"

To rebut a few of your actual in-good-faith points:

1) No, a modern 6'5 NHL goalie DOES NOT need to be particularly flexible. They are already big, they need a super strong core, super strong glutes and hips. That often comes at the expense of flexibility so you prioritize the former.

2) Jonathan Quick is probably the WORST comparable to Skinner in this modern era. I know you did it to contrast, but they are like an ENTIRELY DIFFERENT CLASS of goaltender. What 5'11 (if that) Quick needs to do to be successful at the NHL level and what Skinner needs to do, are entirely different. Quick does need to get up and down into butterfly twice as fast because he's going to need to do it twice as often... he can't see otherwise.

3) To the above, much of what you want out of Skinner is stylistic. You prefer J Quick's style of goaltending. Me too, I'm a huge FAN of small goalies who (absolutely have no choice but to) play with that level of agility. I am not a FAN of Skinner's style, but I do ADMIRE it. The record shows that HUGE, reasonably skating goalies are THE phenotype that is successful in the NHL. I wish this style would die off, but there is no question that it works and it's very clear that smaller, more athletic goalies have difficulty rising the ranks.

4) I do agree that skating and edge work is critical for NHL goaltending... I don't agree that Skinner is particularly a bad skater... at least I haven't noticed it at all. I will bookmark this point and have a more critical eye... but my eye test is perhaps biased by the fact that, unlike Smith and Koskinen before him, Skinner actually DOES play at the top of the crease and cut angles moreso than many HUGE goalies. To me that implies that he has the skating to patrol the full scope of the crease, whereas other big guys tend to stay deep since i) they can and ii) it reduces the lateral distance one needs to cover. I hate it... cut the damn angle like a smaller goalie would and you'd be unbeatable down-low and anywhere except top corners. Skinner generally gets this... he's not perfect, but he's much better than most.

5) What's "micro up/down". Are you talking about "V-H" = post leg up and far-side leg down or "Reverse V-H" (opposite of VH)?? Skinner doesn't do any V-H (it's very out of fashion) and does a tonne of RVH... actually (like many NHL goalies) he over-relies on it. That's why he gets sniped up by his earlobes on the short side. I hate it... but he definitely relies heavily on it, so not sure what you mean.

6) Maybe you mean butterfly pushes (some people call it pro-fly)? Like when you are down in butterfly, but raise one knee slightly to edge yourself and slide from one slide to another? To your skating point above, Skinner doesn't do a lot of pro-fly, but he's so big the distance from one post to the other when in RVH isn't much, so those pushes are much less obvious than for a smaller guy. I do think he could probably benefit from adding more of that to his bag of tricks for recovery pushes when he's out on top of the blue paint.

I stated on Skinner very early on that he doesn’t have great flexibility or athleticism, calling out his inability to do the splits.

I still don't get this. When does a modern goalie actually need to to the splits? Even on a 2-1 cross ice pass, I'd much rather have my goalie sell out fully with a full-stretched leading leg and a foundational knee on the trailing leg (like a classic "half butterfly") so that they can have their upper body and gloves in the play, be able to jam the breaks on with leading edge if required, and flop forward only if necessary. That's how most guys do it and it doesn't require a huge amount of flexibility... just basic flexibility...

Here's a few good examples from Bobrovsky last year. He's in the midst of his trailing leg push, so his leading knee is on the ice first (his trailing knee would start baring weight next, so that he could lift his leading knee if he needed to stretch any further)... but the point is look at the groin, that's nowhere near a splits. It isn't required, and in any case it limits what you can do next because if you don't have either knee bearing weight, so you can't edge anymore.

1735926886090.png

^ look at this one, groin is a pretty comfortable 90 degrees
1735926842969.png

^ This one isn't full stretch yet, if he needs to, trailing knee goes down and leading knee rises slightly to kick toward post (as below). Plus if McAvoy makes the cut, trailing knee takes weight, leading skate edges in and he's ready to push the opposite way. This requires F'N HUGE POWER in your hips and groin, but not necessarily flexibility.

1735926764734.png

^ Here he's at his limit, trailing knee is down, but leading knee is up... you can't see it because of the way pads work these days (they are on very loose), but his leading leg is fully straight from ankle to hip and his hip is still 6-12" off the ice... ie not splits.
 
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bucks_oil

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Bad analogy lol. If a guy only hits it 200 yards, he's not winning his club championship, let alone a major (Stanley Cup). So in this scenario Stuuuu is like a 5 handicap at best? That isn't much of a compliment.

I think you can see my point.

The position is about working what you got. Find perfection in your own game.

Stu was one goal away from the biggest prize and it was a goal he is quite capable of stopping (sadly Kulak backing up was partly screening him, Skinner overcompensated by backing up too far and handcuffed himself shrinking back into the post)

If you are one goal away in this game of inches you are objectively good enough, it coulda broken either way. He was outlasted by a first ballot HoF who is at the tail end of his peak (ie all of the experience Stu doesn't have yet).
 
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Oilhawks

Like Some Snow-White Marble Eyes
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Skinner and Koskinen played on the exact same team and it was very apparent that Skinner was the much better goalie.

Skinner played 13 games that season, not much of a sample size

My point isn’t that he’s not better than Koskinen, it’s that he’s not consistent or athletic enough to be the starter. And also that if he wasn’t a hometown kid he wouldn’t have such a fanbase
 

Arpeggio

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Jul 20, 2006
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Skinner played 13 games that season, not much of a sample size

My point isn’t that he’s not better than Koskinen, it’s that he’s not consistent or athletic enough to be the starter. And also that if he wasn’t a hometown kid he wouldn’t have such a fanbase
What fanbase? I don't see a lot of people saying Skinner is a top five goalie or anything crazy like that. What I see most often (and agree with) is that he is an above average goalie (which he is) who outperforms his contract (which he does). That's not exactly a high bar lol. If he gets a $5+ million contract, the advantage that Skinner brings kind of disappears in my opinion.

Also, I don't think you said this, but the idea that the Oilers can't win with Skinner is ludicrous to me. They were just in game 7 of the finals, and lost by a single goal. Obviously they can win with him.
 

Oilhawks

Like Some Snow-White Marble Eyes
Nov 24, 2011
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What fanbase? I don't see a lot of people saying Skinner is a top five goalie or anything crazy like that. What I see most often (and agree with) is that he is an above average goalie (which he is) who outperforms his contract (which he does). That's not exactly a high bar lol. If he gets a $5+ million contract, the advantage that Skinner brings kind of disappears in my opinion.

Also, I don't think you said this, but the idea that the Oilers can't win with Skinner is ludicrous to me. They were just in game 7 of the finals, and lost by a single goal. Obviously they can win with him.

Maybe you haven't seen the posts (here and elsewhere) but there are a number of fans that refuse to assign any blame to Skinner when he has a bad game, regardless with him being one of the statistically worst goalies in the league this season, and inconsistent in years past

Sure. Do you think they make it to the Finals if they keep Skinner in for the Vancouver series? He was horrendous in that series and in the series vs Vegas the year before.
 
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