Proposal: Would you Make this Deal?

[trentmccleary]

Lets say we make a play on draft day for a player like Bobby Ryan. We begin with the assumption that we have to give something to get something, and we start with Silf or Zibby, include Wiercioch plus our 1 round pick this year. They counter with specifying Zibby and taking out Wiercioch and adding Cowen.

You're complaining that we don't have any top end talent and offering up any player 22 and under, most of whom are rookies... such that we have no idea what their top end talent is for a player in his prime. Do you not see the problem with your logic here?

 

[DylanSensFan]

Problem with that line of thinking is, if you had Benn or Hall already, there's no way you'd want to trade them for Zibby or Silf.

reverse that for me... we have two rooks who have barely begun to touch on their potential in the NHL.

 

[BonkTastic]

reverse that for me... we have two rooks who have barely begun to touch on their potential in the NHL.

That argument would hold a lot more weight if Benn and Eberle weren't both only 23 years young and still developing themselves.

 

[StefanW]

You're complaining that we don't have any top end talent and offering up any player 22 and under, most of whom are rookies... such that we have no idea what their top end talent is for a player in his prime. Do you not see the problem with your logic here?

Rather than accusing people of problems with logic, maybe a more accurate assessment would be that we start with different assumptions. The first assumption is about timelines, the second is about how many will actually blossom in huge pieces that can be central to a cup run.

Yes, we have some young players who may be good down the road. My assumption is that it will take quite a while. Zibby will be peaking in about 3 years or so, same with Silf. The player I want is a power forward, and the only ones in the system are just starting their pro careers down in Bingo. A power forward typically takes longer to mature than, say, a scoring winger. Let's say for the sake of argument that it takes about 5 years, possibly 7 if we figure in that the scoring will come before the maturity in that position. So we stay with the youngsters, watch them grow, scrape into the playoffs for the next 3-5 years, and maybe get out of the first round if we happen to run against a team in the 1st with poor coaching and whiny soft prima donna players.

So 3-5 years later, when these players mature, do we have Perry and Getlaf clones? Maybe, but it is just as likely that one out of Zibby and Silf becomes a reliable 20 goal scorer while the other just can't climb over the hump and pot goals on a regular basis. Maybe that power forward we are grooming has a good heart, but he tend to hit the goalie in the pads a lot when he shoots and the numbers just aren't there. My assumption is that not all wonderful prospects turn into star players. Some keep growing, some plateau, and others may even regress and end up eking out a living in playing for a team with an unpronouncable name in some European league.

I'm not saying we should dump every young player we have. My position is that even if we wait for them to mature there is still no guarantee that we are grooming a star rather than a Latendresse Mark II. We are in a good spot in terms of organizational depth, so why not part with some young unproven players in exchange for proven guys who can take us a step further while we still have Alfie, Phillips, and Neil to lead the way?

 

[operasen]

Took us how long to get the depth we have, and some want to trade it away for one guy that may not work.

Keep your Cowen, Wiercioch, Stone, Hoffman, Pageau, Puempel, Prince, etc. If you move someone it is someone you do not miss - Michalek, OBrien, Conacher, Regin, DaCosta, etc

 

[trentmccleary]

Took us how long to get the depth we have, and some want to trade it away for one guy that may not work.

Keep your Cowen, Wiercioch, Stone, Hoffman, Pageau, Puempel, Prince, etc. If you move someone it is someone you do not miss - Michalek, OBrien, Conacher, Regin, DaCosta, etc

Michalek has averaged 82-28-22-50, 1:43 SH per game as a Sen.

Beyond Spezza, he looks like the only Senator forward next season to have ever had a 40 point season... let alone a 60+ point season.

Actually, as things stand; Greening would have the 3rd highest career season at 37 points. Michalek had 35 goals in his career season. They were born a year apart.

We would miss him.

Yes, we have some young players who may be good down the road. My assumption is that it will take quite a while. Zibby will be peaking in about 3 years or so, same with Silf. The player I want is a power forward, and the only ones in the system are just starting their pro careers down in Bingo. A power forward typically takes longer to mature than, say, a scoring winger. Let's say for the sake of argument that it takes about 5 years, possibly 7 if we figure in that the scoring will come before the maturity in that position. So we stay with the youngsters, watch them grow, scrape into the playoffs for the next 3-5 years, and maybe get out of the first round if we happen to run against a team in the 1st with poor coaching and whiny soft prima donna players.

Ryan is a more of a sniper than a power forward and he barely outscored the players that you are trying to trade for him this year.

B. Ryan = 46-11-19-30, 0.65 (*82-20-33-53)
M. Zibby = 42-7-13-20, 0.48 (*82-14-25-39)
Silfverbrg = 48-10-9-19, 0.40 (*82-17-15-32)
Wierioch = 42-5-14-19, 0.45 (*82-10-27-37)

So 3-5 years later, when these players mature, do we have Perry and Getlaf clones? Maybe, but it is just as likely that one out of Zibby and Silf becomes a reliable 20 goal scorer while the other just can't climb over the hump and pot goals on a regular basis. Maybe that power forward we are grooming has a good heart, but he tend to hit the goalie in the pads a lot when he shoots and the numbers just aren't there. My assumption is that not all wonderful prospects turn into star players. Some keep growing, some plateau, and others may even regress and end up eking out a living in playing for a team with an unpronouncable name in some European league.

A 20yo was on pace for 14 goals in his rookie season.
A 22yo was on pace for 17 goals in his rookie season.

I wouldn't be surprised if both eclipsed 20 goals this upcoming season.

 

[aragorn]

Tomas Fleischmann LW
- 29 yrs old, 7 yr veteran, Czech, 6'1", 200 lbs
- led Florida in scoring with 35 pts, has had a 61 pt & 51 pt season.
- is a good two way player
- has a very affordable contract with a yr left on it
- could be re-signed, if he does well here.

 

[StefanW]

Punidts, who are never wrong of course, have said that the biggest thing missing in the Sens lineup is a power forward who can play on Spezza's wing. Many fans agree with this. Of the UFAs available Iginla, Horton, or Dupuis fit the bill well enough and would only cost us salary, so that is probably our first choice. However, none of those players are likely to sign here.

So what happens then? I'll start with a scenario that played out with fans in general on the main boards, and put it out there to see what Sens fans in particular think.

Lets say we make a play on draft day for a player like Bobby Ryan. We begin with the assumption that we have to give something to get something, and we start with Silf or Zibby, include Wiercioch plus our 1 round pick this year. They counter with specifying Zibby and taking out Wiercioch and adding Cowen.

Gulp.

If you were the GM of the Sens what would you do? Is it a Hell yeah, a stand firm, or a "we can grow our own, the original offer was already too much"?

I think I came pretty close with what we would offer. I got Silfverberg, got the first, but missed by assuming they would ask for Wiercioch instead of Noesen.

 

[Xspyrit]

I think I came pretty close with what we would offer. I got Silfverberg, got the first, but missed by assuming they would ask for Wiercioch instead of Noesen.

Yep and I wasn't far off in terms of value. lol thought I could have been way off when I opened the thread...

Zibanejad + Cowen + 18th overall pick for Ryan?

No thanks

Was not prepared to give up any of Cowen or Zibanejad. Thanks Murray, we didn't!

Makes a bit more sense but Zibanejad should be a keeper

I'd do Stone + Wiercioch + 1st

Wiercioch and Stone have a bit less value than Silfverberg and Noesen, but not a lot. And we were talking about our 17th overall pick THIS year, so it could have more value than next year's pick.

 

[sens2k9]

I'll eat some crow here, didn't think the cost would be so high.

 

[Icelevel]

The key thing here is that we gave up forwards and not d depth. We are still deep at forward.

 

[John Holmes*]

We kept our best prospects.

Silf instead of Zibanejad....that's brilliant.

Zibanejad really grew on me last season. He's clearly got a much higher ceiling than Silf.

 

[Milan the God*]

We kept our best prospects.

Silf instead of Zibanejad....that's brilliant.

Zibanejad really grew on me last season. He's clearly got a much higher ceiling than Silf.

Agreed. I'm not going to throw Silfverberg under the bus, but the fact we kept Zibanejad is huge. I love Silf but Zibanejad was clearly better.

We kept Zibanejad and Cowen. We spent a first round pick and Noesen to upgrade Silfverberg to Bobby Ryan.

The fact that our prospect pool is still nice with Lazar, Ceci, Puempel, Prince and Pagueau is a huge bonus. A lot of teams, trading three futures like this could cripple their future. We took a hit in our prospect pool, but we got a proven top six forward to play with Spezza and is pretty young.

We dealt a position of strength (futures/prospects) for a position of need (big, young scoring winger).

 

[Laphroaig]

I didn't respond to this initially because Bobby Ryan being traded to Ottawa was just too far fetched. Shows what I know.

Nice job by the OP in approximating the return Anaheim would demand. I'm very happy to have retained Zibby and all our young defensemen. It was a steep price but one I'm very comfortable with.

 

[God Says No]

It's weird. I'm fine with losing Silf, but losing Noesen hurts.

 

[danishh]

It's weird. I'm fine with losing Silf, but losing Noesen hurts.

noesen has huge upside. Potentially bobby ryan level top-six forward. We've already seen silfverberg. He's a 2nd line winger.