I think we're trending towards more sensible contracts and away from overpaying UFA's but I don't think we're there yet. I think your numbers are reasonable but someone will overpay (as always seems to be the case), hard to say how much though. If I had to guess, I would say he gets a minimum of 5 years and 6 is more likely with 7 being a possibility. The money of course depends on term, maybe something like 5 years of 6m or 6 years at 5.5m. I do think your 5.5 for 4 years if low, 5.5 for 5 years I think is the absolute minimum, we'll see.
The question is, how many Lucik type catastrophes have to happen before everyone smartens up? I don't think we're quite there yet.