Would you give Stamkos away?

[glenngineer]

This is exactly the kind of thinking I'm talking about, that we'd have to adopt if we wanted to really "moneyball" a turnaround. Stamkos sucks up a lot of primo ice and opportunity and Cap space... but there are loads of replacement-level players who could put up similar numbers if granted all that same opportunity. We won't actually be able to get away from the Stamkos contract in all likelihood. But he's just another layer of the same mindset that says McCarron and Jankowski and Smith are better than our youngsters. It all comes from the same place. If you could let go of that mindset, that'd be the first step towards turning things around. Because there are lots of players out there, and lots of other NHL coaches and GMs who get stuck in that mindset too. Tolvanen has 15 goals to Stamkos' 17, with a lot less opportunity.

Who's out there that's going to put up 60ish points yearly? We certainly don't have anyone in the system ready to do that. Marchessault? Who were the FA's that are putting up these numbers?

I hate that Stamkos is on the downside of his career. 91,81&9 caught lighting in a bottle for a small stretch and now they've gone dry. Why is that? I just don't buy that all of these guys have gone to hell in a hand basket over the course of an offseason. Fil is the only one that has a chance to match his numbers from last year, everyone else, old and new are nowhere close to where they need to be.

Bring in a coach with an actual system and things will change. If they don't, then start moving on from these guys.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Who's out there that's going to put up 60ish points yearly? We certainly don't have anyone in the system ready to do that. Marchessault? Who were the FA's that are putting up these numbers?

I hate that Stamkos is on the downside of his career. 91,81&9 caught lighting in a bottle for a small stretch and now they've gone dry. Why is that? I just don't buy that all of these guys have gone to hell in a hand basket over the course of an offseason. Fil is the only one that has a chance to match his numbers from last year, everyone else, old and new are nowhere close to where they need to be.

Bring in a coach with an actual system and things will change. If they don't, then start moving on from these guys.

I mean, you can't move on from these guys. You can only wait out their contracts.

But I do believe that if you just threw Evangelista/Tomasino/Tolvanen/Novak types into the exact same role as Stamkos... give them PP1, no fears, no second-guessing if they ever make a mistake, 18 mins a night... they'll put up the same numbers as Stamkos.

And most good teams would be like, OMG, those players aren't actually good enough to get that kind of leeway. Right? Yeah, but that's the point... neither is Stamkos, because at this stage they are all equivalent. Just one guy gets the hall pass and earns $8M, the others don't.

And that's just our internal guys. There are probably dozens of equivalents around the league.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Who's out there that's going to put up 60ish points yearly? We certainly don't have anyone in the system ready to do that. Marchessault? Who were the FA's that are putting up these numbers?

Stamkos is on pace for 52 points. Maybe he gets hot again and gets off that pace but that remains to be seen Like I mentioned if you look at his scoring rates he's not doing any better than Tomasino last season and marginally better than Novak this season and that's with far better linemates, generally favorable deployment, and a PP designed to try and get him the puck.

Why is that? I just don't buy that all of these guys have gone to hell in a hand basket over the course of an offseason.

A lot of our players including Stamkos are in their mid-30s and have played a lot of hockey. Father time comes for everyone at some point no matter if they are a legend or not. Maybe it's entirely coaching but I don't think its that insane to suggest maybe it's also age catching up with Stamkos.

 

[Kat Predator]

I'd love to hear your explanation of how we turn things around quickly.

Our D corp is a mess. Molendyk and Gibson are at least a full season away from playing together as a pair and even then, they'll be young and green coming into the NHL. Outside of Wilsby and Stastney, I'm not excited about anything else in the system.

Forward wise, say Svechkov, Novak, Evangelista and ZLH keep progressing, are these 4 middle six guys? With who we've drafted/acquired, we'd have to hit on Wood, Kemell, Surin, Edstrom and Stiga to round out a top 9. None of these guys are top 3 guys. So we've got a roster full of top 6 guys, maybe. I've said this in the past that if you have a really solid top 9 filled with true second line talent, you can compete at a high level, at least statistically speaking.

If we get a top 3 pick this year and can draft Hagens or Misa, that certainly helps. All that to say, if what I said is true about three second lines, that means these 9 guys would be averaging around 50-60 points each in the NHL and Hagens or Misa is over a PPG. No offense but when was the last time we drafted a player who's average 50-60 points a season that's stayed on the roster? Smith and Fiala are the only immediate two that come to mind.

So what gives you hope that we can turns this around quickly with certain guys aging out of this team and replacing them with the pieces we currently have in the system? Maybe, if Hagens or Misa comes in immediately and is a PPG player playing with Forsberg and other guys step up dramatically, it's a possibility. I just don't see it. I'd love to be wrong but how many times do we as a fan base get all excited about a prospect to be let down? Too often.

To riff on your post a bit: you really don't need an elite top line to be a good team. A team can get to the playoffs and win a playoff series by stacking depth. More precisely, if you can put together 4 lines that'd be 2nd/3rd line players on most teams, and they are all excellent skaters, you can overwhelm other teams like, oh say, the Oilers, by rolling those lines. The Oilers have superstars, but (for argument's sake) don't have a lot of depth. So if your 4th line is head and shoulders above the Oilers garbage on their 4th line, you can score goals there. You just need your generic 2nd line to match up enough against McJesus to slow him down a bit.

That said, I don't think that is at all the way Trotz is looking at this. He's throwing together a team of UFAs paid like superstars and rounding the roster out with pressbox warmers, who he plans to dump sooner rather than later, etc. He's running around looking for his own McJesus. But even if he gets McJesus 2.0 in this draft, the roster looks like Swiss cheese with all the holes, poor coaching, and suspect systems.

 

[Armourboy]

I mean, you can't move on from these guys. You can only wait out their contracts.

But I do believe that if you just threw Evangelista/Tomasino/Tolvanen/Novak types into the exact same role as Stamkos... give them PP1, no fears, no second-guessing if they ever make a mistake, 18 mins a night... they'll put up the same numbers as Stamkos.

And most good teams would be like, OMG, those players aren't actually good enough to get that kind of leeway. Right? Yeah, but that's the point... neither is Stamkos, because at this stage they are all equivalent. Just one guy gets the hall pass and earns $8M, the others don't.

And that's just our internal guys. There are probably dozens of equivalents around the league.

And ultimately that is the problem. There is no " moving on" they are here as long as they want to be here. You can't even use the threat of sending them to the minors because of the contract structure.

Whether any of the players have negative or positive value doesn't mean a thing, because you can't do anything with them without their permission. The only hope of changes from a player stand point is hoping one of them wants out, otherwise you have this same basic roster for the next 3-4 years whether you like it or not.

Trotz rolled his dice and got snake eyes, now he has to let the rest of the board play before he can roll them again.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

And ultimately that is the problem. There is no " moving on" they are here as long as they want to be here. You can't even use the threat of sending them to the minors because of the contract structure.

Whether any of the players have negative or positive value doesn't mean a thing, because you can't do anything with them without their permission. The only hope of changes from a player stand point is hoping one of them wants out, otherwise you have this same basic roster for the next 3-4 years whether you like it or not.

Trotz rolled his dice and got snake eyes, now he has to let the rest of the board play before he can roll them again.

Exactly. Which is why this whole thread is just a thought experiment really. You MUST give a Stamkos away for free IF any other team is ever willing to take him.

Of course, no team ever will be willing.

But you just have to have that understanding of what your assets represent and just how screwed you are in order to be able to plan forward.