Would Ovechkin get 70 goals if he didn't get injured?

[Video Nasty]

Probably not, he's the greatest goal scorer of all time in my eyes but he's out of his prime. Matthews in his prime scored 69 last year, OV is almost 40 now, that would be insanely difficult to do at this age and point in his career. Good chance he hits 60 if not injured, 70 is insane.


Easily, he hit 65 in a way harder era.

Nothing easy about it. He hit 65 once and passed 53 twice in 20 years.

His strength is that he mostly plugged along at 48-51, regardless of age and scoring levels.

How many more shots could he possibly rip off to achieve 70+? He needed 446 to get those 65 and 528 the following year to get 56.

Nothing easy about it, not when he has anomaly seasons, in both positive and negative directions.

 

[shello]

He’s on pace for 55 goals now isn’t he? Not sure how there’s so many definitive no’s in this thread. I definitely think it was possible

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Before Ovechkin got injured he was on pace for 68 goals, if he didn't get injured would he get 70 goals?

I know we won't know now but if he didn't get injured do y'all think he would have reached 70 goals?

I'm going to say no

 

[RayMartyniukTotems]

Before Ovechkin got injured he was on pace for 68 goals, if he didn't get injured would he get 70 goals?

I know we won't know now but if he didn't get injured do y'all think he would have reached 70 goals?

Sometimes I think about the 2004 season and whether Ovie could have scored 40-50 goals had there not been a strike and maybe Alexander could on pace for scoring almost 1000 goals

 

[Bruce Granville]

Of course not.

 

[RayMartyniukTotems]

No, but he probably would’ve finished with 55ish goals. It’s a shame about his injury, I hope he still breaks the record this season

All hockey fans are pulling for Ovie to break 99's record and then continue toan assault on it for another 2-3 seasons would put him near and over 1 thousand goals

 

[BallardEra]

All hockey fans are pulling for Ovie to break 99's record and then continue toan assault on it for another 2-3 seasons would put him near and over 1 thousand goals

He has one year left after this season and I don't really see him sticking around beyond that.

If he beats the record this season then I think next season is his farewell tour.

 

[Fatass]

No.

 

[Avs2022]

I keep thinking how many goals past the record he would be if not for lock outs.

 

[Kennedys]

Ahh yes cherrypick literally the only player in the league with that stat over 1 and half seasons of games played currently. I think you will find even for the best scorers over a 20% rate is an anomaly.

Furthermore, magnified into just Ovechkin, he has never had a season over 20%, and most skaters will have great runs of shots falling in, then some coldish spells, or vice versa, which is why over 82 games you get the average you get.

I would place a bet that Ovie finishes with under 20% by year's end, assuming no more month absences to ensure him an adequate sample size. He is currently taking 4 shots a game, which is roughly on par with his career averages

Maybe it WAS an anomaly. SV% is way down in recent years. Craig Simpson ended his career with a 23.7% SH%. OMG i'm cherry picking again

 

[Toby91ca]

Why would we seriously consider whether 70 goals is likely when using 15 actual goals as the starting point. I get pace after 18 games, but what was his pace after 16 games?

 

[EXTRAS]

No. But young him probably would in this era.

 

[Calderon]

He has one year left after this season and I don't really see him sticking around beyond that.

If he beats the record this season then I think next season is his farewell tour.

I agree. While 1000 is a magical milestone looming at a plausible distance, gunning for that number just won't garner the hearts of the hockey world the same way that passing Gretzky will. Besides, breaking a record of that magnitude will almost certainly have some kind of deflating effect on him emotionally, it's just human nature to have improvements occur incrementally.

An intriguing what-if scenario would have been if Ovi didn't have to miss so many games due to lockouts and covid and actually already had the record in the bag: what if he had 900+ goals after 2023-24, would he have come back this season or call it quits and head to the KHL? Retiring from the NHL at his current 50+ goal pace form would've been a difficult, rather unprecedented decision.

 

[BallardEra]

I agree. While 1000 is a magical milestone looming at a plausible distance, gunning for that number just won't garner the hearts of the hockey world the same way that passing Gretzky will. Besides, breaking a record of that magnitude will almost certainly have some kind of deflating effect on him emotionally, it's just human nature to have improvements occur incrementally.

An intriguing what-if scenario would have been if Ovi didn't have to miss so many games due to lockouts and covid and actually already had the record in the bag: what if he had 900+ goals after 2023-24, would he have come back this season or call it quits and head to the KHL? Retiring from the NHL at his current 50+ goal pace form would've been a difficult, rather unprecedented decision.

I prefer he finishes at 894 this year.

Last thing I want to see is him hit 895 this season and come into camp at 300 pounds next year.

 

[kugelbahn]

I prefer he finishes at 894 this year.

Last thing I want to see is him hit 895 this season and come into camp at 300 pounds next year.

300 pound OV will score 20 goals easy, so he could start enjoying those pizza deals soon

 

[kugelbahn]

I keep thinking how many goals past the record he would be if not for lock outs.

These things are not straightforward, there is extra wear and tear from those missed games which could sometime snowball. What-ifs are fun but should not be taken seriously by judging a player, eg with those virtual awards.

 

[Video Nasty]

These things are not straightforward, there is extra wear and tear from those missed games which could sometime snowball. What-ifs are fun but should not be taken seriously by judging a player, eg with those virtual awards.

This.

It’s not a coincidence that Ovechkin returned to form during the shortened 2012-2013 season after the two back to back worst goal scoring seasons of his career up to that point.

As for the lost 2004-2005 season, a normal one would have seen Ovechkin enter a league that was circling down the drain in terms of scoring. Who knows how long that would have been allowed to continue without the push to bring the fans back.

He has been remarkably healthy and consistent regardless. I can’t help but imagine this is one of the best outcomes there could be, so I’ve never really understood the wistful feelings about an alternate reality where he’s flirting with 1000 as of today.

 

[Calderon]

This.

It’s not a coincidence that Ovechkin returned to form during the shortened 2012-2013 season after the two back to back worst goal scoring seasons of his career up to that point.

As for the lost 2004-2005 season, a normal one would have seen Ovechkin enter a league that was circling down the drain in terms of scoring. Who knows how long that would have been allowed to continue without the push to bring the fans back.

He has been remarkably healthy and consistent regardless. I can’t help but imagine this is one of the best outcomes there could be, so I’ve never really understood the wistful feelings about an alternate reality where he’s flirting with 1000 as of today.

Good point. Without the changes facilitated by the 2004-05 lockout we might not get the Ovi we did. With all the clutching, grabbing, fewer PPs and old rules maybe he tops out at, say, Kovalchuk level instead (like mostly finishing in the 40-45 goal range of 9x50+). Though being a very physical player the Rockets might still come but instead chasing Gretzky he'd barely catch Brett Hull.

 

[RayMartyniukTotems]

No. But young him probably would in this era.

In the early 80's during Gretzky's time Ovie would have scored a hundred goals 2-3 maybe 4 times

 

[Midnight Judges]

He’s on pace for 55 goals now isn’t he? Not sure how there’s so many definitive no’s in this thread. I definitely think it was possible

Cause he's played a quarter season's worth of games?

 

[Avs2022]

These things are not straightforward, there is extra wear and tear from those missed games which could sometime snowball. What-ifs are fun but should not be taken seriously by judging a player, eg with those virtual awards.

Um, in this case i disagree, but i get what you're trying to say.

He missed 155 games due to two different lockouts. Had those lockouts not occurred, he would have broken the record barring injury.

 

[sxvnert]

Before Ovechkin got injured he was on pace for 68 goals, if he didn't get injured would he get 70 goals?

I know we won't know now but if he didn't get injured do y'all think he would have reached 70 goals?

Not a chance.

 

[KaraLupin]

Maybe it WAS an anomaly. SV% is way down in recent years. Craig Simpson ended his career with a 23.7% SH%. OMG i'm cherry picking again

Yes you are indeed cherry picking again. He is 1 of what, 5 players ever to do that with a decent amount of NHL Games played? Just accept that 20 games above 20% is commonly considered a hot streak, and the likelihood of someone keeping that pace with no regression over 82 games is very unlikely. Like my initial statement you replied to, I don't think Ovi would have kept 70 goal pace because of the insane shooting percentage. You replied like it was a fallacy among hockey stats, but feel free to bump this post at Ovi's 50 game mark and we'll see where he is at!

 

[Video Nasty]

In the early 80's during Gretzky's time Ovie would have scored a hundred goals 2-3 maybe 4 times

How do highs of 65, 56, 53, and 51 goal seasons in an era where scoring is about 40% lower morph into multiple 100 goal seasons?

 

[TheBig08]

Good point. Without the changes facilitated by the 2004-05 lockout we might not get the Ovi we did. With all the clutching, grabbing, fewer PPs and old rules maybe he tops out at, say, Kovalchuk level instead (like mostly finishing in the 40-45 goal range of 9x50+). Though being a very physical player the Rockets might still come but instead chasing Gretzky he'd barely catch Brett Hull.

I think he would still produce the same, I think whether they changed the rules or not it wouldn't have really affected his playstyle.