Hockey Outsider
Registered User
- Jan 16, 2005
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In a recent thread, I made an offhand comment stating that Adam Oates was an "incredibly poor goal-scorer by the standards of HOF forwards". I wanted to see if I could quantify that.
Population - I'm looking at HOF forwards who had substantially all of their prime post-expansion. I excluded players who had most (or all) of their prime prior to the 1967-68 season (including, for example, Gordie Howe and Bobby Hull). This is because it was easier to get closer to the top of the scoring race pre-expansion. I also included players who are locks for the Hall and who have had careers that are 10+ years long (thereby excluding McDavid, Matthews, MacKinnon, Kucherov, etc).
Method - I looked at where each of these players finished in goals in their top seven seasons in goal-scoring. (Why seven? Why not, seven?) The top seasons, as I've defined it, are based on where they ranked in goal-scoring (not raw totals). Therefore Steve Yzerman's 35 goal 2000 campaign (where he ranked 11th in goals) is included, but his 39 goal 1984 season (where he ranked 25th) isn't.
Example - Mats Sundin finished 2nd, 8th, 10th, 11th, 14th, 15th and 17th in goals in his seven best seasons. His "score" is 11.0.
Disclaimers - as is usually the case with big tables of statistics, there's important context that isn't necessarily captured in the numbers. This is based on scoring finishes; it doesn't take into account a player's innate talent, or artistry (hence Pavel Bure is ranked behind Jarome Iginla). There's also a margin of error that should be applied (nobody should argue that, say, Steve Shutt is better than Mark Messier because 13.3 < 13.9). Playoffs are excluded in this analysis.
Population - I'm looking at HOF forwards who had substantially all of their prime post-expansion. I excluded players who had most (or all) of their prime prior to the 1967-68 season (including, for example, Gordie Howe and Bobby Hull). This is because it was easier to get closer to the top of the scoring race pre-expansion. I also included players who are locks for the Hall and who have had careers that are 10+ years long (thereby excluding McDavid, Matthews, MacKinnon, Kucherov, etc).
Method - I looked at where each of these players finished in goals in their top seven seasons in goal-scoring. (Why seven? Why not, seven?) The top seasons, as I've defined it, are based on where they ranked in goal-scoring (not raw totals). Therefore Steve Yzerman's 35 goal 2000 campaign (where he ranked 11th in goals) is included, but his 39 goal 1984 season (where he ranked 25th) isn't.
Example - Mats Sundin finished 2nd, 8th, 10th, 11th, 14th, 15th and 17th in goals in his seven best seasons. His "score" is 11.0.
Disclaimers - as is usually the case with big tables of statistics, there's important context that isn't necessarily captured in the numbers. This is based on scoring finishes; it doesn't take into account a player's innate talent, or artistry (hence Pavel Bure is ranked behind Jarome Iginla). There's also a margin of error that should be applied (nobody should argue that, say, Steve Shutt is better than Mark Messier because 13.3 < 13.9). Playoffs are excluded in this analysis.