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Worst first round picks

LoiltyAtItsFinest

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Aug 18, 2014
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What were the worst first round picks in history? And I don’t mean busts, I mean on draft day what were picks that GMs thought they were outsmarting everyone but were dead wrong? Inspired by looking at the 2021 draft and seeing Tyler Boucher being drafted at 10th, which was a total reach on draft day looking at rankings, and rankings were proven right. I know the bruins have probably heard enough of the 2015 draft, but I was 13 years old, and I remember thinking what the hell are they doing. Zboril was actually the pick that made the most sense compared to rankings and Debrusk was the one that turned out good, but still what the hell were they doing lol, makes me laugh when GMs think they’re out smarting everyone, I would’ve made better picks at 13 years old than Sweeney did and I’m no genius. Also feel free to add times when GMs actually didn’t prove all the scouts and fans and rankings wrong.
 
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In terms of draft day profiles with truly minimal chances of success, without ANY hindsight.

Colton Gillies was pretty damn ridiculous. 0% chance he was ever going to be more than a 4th liner. #16 pick, with legit projectable players in droves behind him.

Zachary Senyshyn, Tyler Biggs, Philippe Paradis, Carter Ashton, Sam Morin, Patrick White, Joe Finley, Sasha Pokulok, David Fischer, Colten Teubert, Daultan Leveille, Henrik Samuelsson, Stefan Matteau, Riley Tufte, Shane Bowers, Liam Foudy...

are also guys in the last 20 years who, well... were longshots to actually be NHLers on draft day from their profile so far but were taken 1st round.
 
Sweeney going with Zboril and Senyshyn in 2015 has proven to be disasterclass of bad decisions.
I think Senyshyn is one of the worst when you factor in context.

Zboril busted but he was at least consistently ranked in round 1 IIRC.

Senyshyn was:
- Well below a ppg in the OHL and playing in a middle 6 role on his own teams
- Was ranked in like the 2nd/3rd round
- Went directly before Barzal and Kyle Connor

The dude wasn't even someone you could say had all the tools but just missed. The only thing I distinctly remember being a plus with him was his skating. He was a vanilla player and aside from a short stretch in the Covid era was never even a difference maker in the AHL.
 
At least for me there could be two buckets. One where a highly ranked player didn't pan out versus a team taking somebody unexpected and then it didn't work out. OP seems to want the latter.

1995 was the first draft I watched, but I probably wasn't following closely until I got internet access in 1997. If only for the excuse to walk down memory lane:

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1995: Teemu Riihijarvi (12th overall) - San Jose was entering the final year of the weird management setup where Dean Lombardi and Chuck Grillo were essentially co-GMs. Grillo had a fascination with European players. He wasn't necessarily wrong as they hit on some later picks, but in this case the Sharks went for a toolsy 6'5 forward. Although according to an article from the time, the Islanders apparently had a deal in place for #15 and were targeting Riihijarvi as well. Scottie Bowman also congratulated the Sharks on the pick.

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1998: Mike Rupp (9th overall) - Maybe similar to Riihijarvi, Rupp was a toolsy power forward who didn't have the production. There had been rumblings that Rupp would go higher on draft day since it was a middling draft class and he had higher theoretical upside. Nik Antropov (ranked #53 by THN) went #10 for similar reasons.

According to the draft broadcast, the Islanders table was debating between Rupp and Robyn Regehr at #9. Presumably since they were loaded with young D, they went with Rupp who'd they chose not to sign by 2000. Rupp would get re-drafted in the third round and he'd have a decent enough career as a bottom six role player.

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2001: Adrian Foster (28th overall) - Maybe not as high of expectations for a late 1st, but apparently the Devils didn't love the crop and decided to take a home run swing. Foster had only played in 12 WHL in the previous two seasons combined due to injuries. When he was younger, he held his own with Dany Heatley and Krys Kolanos (who was looking good at this point in 2001). According to Gare Joyce's book "Future Greats and Heartbreaks", New Jersey knew they had a 2003 2nd round pick as compensation in their back pocket if they didn't sign Foster. But they'd end up signing him and Foster didn't pan out as he battled through a myriad of injuries as a pro.

Although with hindsight there wasn't that much to lose sleep over. I just remember the confusion on the broadcast as there was a delay. I forget if the pick was so unexpected that Central Registry had to double check that Foster's paperwork was in order.
 
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Duncan Siemens. Has the creepiest NHL profile photo you will ever see. Just google him.
He's like a scary version of John Connors step dad in Terminator 2 played by Xander Berkley.

Logan MacMillan aka MacBust.
 
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I think Senyshyn is one of the worst when you factor in context.

Zboril busted but he was at least consistently ranked in round 1 IIRC.

Senyshyn was:
- Well below a ppg in the OHL and playing in a middle 6 role on his own teams
- Was ranked in like the 2nd/3rd round
- Went directly before Barzal and Kyle Connor

The dude wasn't even someone you could say had all the tools but just missed. The only thing I distinctly remember being a plus with him was his skating. He was a vanilla player and aside from a short stretch in the Covid era was never even a difference maker in the AHL.

I'll admit that I was advocating for Senyshyn for the Devils pick at #36. One reason I liked him was that while his production didn't look great on paper, he was on a 1st place team and didn't get PP time. It seemed a decent bet that his production would ramp up when older guys graduated. For similar reasons I liked Luke Evangelista in 2020.

In the moment, I wonder if Christian Dvorak was on anybody's mind. Arizona took him in the late 2nd round in 2014 despite meager production in the OHL. The following year, Dvorak's numbers exploded after he inherited more time with Bo Horvat and Chris Tierney going pro.

2013-14: 33 GP 6G - 8A - 14P
2014-15: 66 GP 41G - 68A - 109P

If I searched, I'm sure there'd be a few posts by me on the Devils board suggesting Senyshyn as a guy with potential to see his D+1 stats increase. While that wasn't necessarily wrong, that obviously wasn't a guarantee for success going forward.
 
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There are a good bit of underwhelming CHL guys drafted too high when some team were a bit slow on the uptake that new development paths had really emerged compared to the days of 90 % of players being former CHL guys.

Brett Connolly, Griffin Reinhart, Slater Koekkoek, Michael Dal Colle, Jake Virtanen, Haydn Fleury, Alex Nylander were all underwhelming picks from the moment they were made as good players for their age in the junior ranks rather than really great pro prospects, rather than guys that surprisingly busted or had really bad luck after their draft.
 
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Arizona's GM in 2019 (Chayka ?) said they had Soderstrom #3 on their list and traded up to draft him.
They passed on Boldy, Caufield, Harley.
 
Thomas hickey? Man I remember the shock of that pick.

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Was just about to post about Hickey. Apparently the pick (or at least the process) continues to be used as a lesson learned for the Kings scouts who are still with the team today.

The story is kinda interesting. Dean Lombardi had to explain the thought process to outraged season ticket holders.

As a young GM in San Jose, he had the #2 pick in the 1996 Draft. The consensus pick was Andrei Zyuzin, but Lombardi and his staff weren't particularly sold. In the end, Lombardi didn't have the nerve to go off the board; Although he happily swapped Zyuzin in 1999 while he had theoretical value. Lombardi then cited how Calgary "reached" for Derek Morris at the same draft but nobody remembers that.

So in essence, he was calling Thomas Hickey his Derek Morris. Word was that Boston would have taken Hickey at #8, so that limited LA's trading options.

Unfortunately in hindsight, Lombardi had pigeonholed the team into taking a puck moving D since their system was lacking outside of a young Jack Johnson. They talked themselves into Hickey being that guy. Unfortunately for Hickey, LA then got Drew Doughty and Slava Voynov the following draft and both leapfrogged Hickey who got squeezed out.

Hickey had a decent run after being waived by LA at least.
 
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