Witnessing the End of Paying a Premium for Goalies?

[Penguin Suited Up]

This thread is a bit weird considering it wa just several months ago that Shesterkin “reset” the goalie market.

One playoffs doesn’t dictate how general managers choose to spend their cap dollars.

 

[DieSendungmitderMaus]

It was over the moment their equipment got smaller 5-6 years ago. SV% has gone down ever since. Elite golies used to have 0.930 and now they have 0.915-.920.
The game is also more offence orientated and less pshysical than 10 years ago with a lot of small and skilled defenders that would have a been a target for fast predatory hitters like Cooke, Torres, Tootoo or Cluterback.

I'm not sure about this argument. Yeah no one's putting up .930 anymore, but it's all about how it compares to the league environment. When the top guys were putting up .930, league average was like .915. You won't get those top numbers anymore, but in contrast to ten years ago you run a real risk of getting sub .900 goaltending with a plug. It's really no different than scoring levels, Crosby wasn't any less valuable winning his 2nd Art Ross than his first despite getting 120 points the first time around and just over 100 the second.

Not to mention this whole thing came up before when the cup final was Niemi vs Leighton. Back then people were arguing you shouldn't pay for goaltending BECAUSE any bozo could put on that oversized equipment and give you .915.

 

[SteelCityCannon]

Yeah, they're going the way of the running back.

 

[ijuka]

I've been against paying a premium for goalies since ever. Too inconsistent, too short-lived.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

This discussion us brought up annually.

 

[NoName]

Wild how Florida manages to ice such a strong roster with some star power at the top while also paying Bob $10million a season.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Here's the thing.. Yes if you can pay a Stolarz 2.5 instead of Hill 5 it makes sense.

The problem is you hit on a Stolarz once every 5 tries and the rest of the time you get a sieve. Goaltending isn't important until you don't have it, then it is everything

 

[Gregor Samsa]

All it takes is one goalie who is the backbone of his team to win the Stanley Cup. I see a parallel between goalies in the NHL and running backs in the NFL. You can argue they are a product of their team but a good one will make a difference

 

[Fatass]

Is this year the beginning of the trend of NOT paying a premium for goalies?

Only 3 of the top 20 highest paid goalies are still in the playoffs:

Bobrovsky $10,000,000
Hellebuyck $8,500,000
Hill $4,900,000

All three losing in their second round of the series. The other 17 highest paid goalies:

Golfing.

Stick tech and reduction of goalie equipment size has increased scoring. Athleticism will return to goalies. Imo we are in a transitional phase. Some clubs have a lot invested in goalies during this transition.

 

[Frank Drebin]

I have nothing but respect for Carey Price and without him we didn't have that 2021 run but I don't ever want a team built around a goalie ever again.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Thanks for clarifying. Since that win, he hasn't been worth that contact given their plight in the first round exits. Price was derailed by injuries that come with the job and position and is still being paid.

Pickard has a .954 save % in the 3rd period the last six games. Who saw that coming?

Seems like any average to good goalie can get hot and that's enough to win.

For sure, but they’re less likely to get hot, and if they don’t you end up with a Skinner.

But like you said, and completely agree with, even an expensive goalie can get inconsistent and that’s a much harder position to insulate when your highly paid goalie is blowing it.

It’s one of the many reasons it’s so hard to win a cup. It really just comes down to players getting hot at the right time

 

[Leonardo87]

Wish someone gave this memo to Chris Drury in the beginning of the season.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Teams don't get much of a say. It's better to have a cheap goaltender than an expensive one, but once the (good) cheap goaltender is up, you have to pay him or roll the dice again. Those years you spend wandering the desert waiting to land on a (good) cheap one could mean you've wasted your whole core if that's your window. Goaltenders should not be held uniquely responsible for their cap hit "preventing" the team, more than any other player that is on a UFA Contract and secures UFA contract value consistent with their value.

Florida and Tampa show you absolutely can pay your premium goaltender a premium amount and make multiple Cup finals. So the notion that an expensive goaltender precludes you from winning is illogical. This isn't that fundamentally different than Colorado being in a better position to win a Cup when MacKinnon was at $6.3 million instead of $12.6 million. Would I rather have MacKinnon at half the cost? You betcha, but I'm not gonna let him walk.

 

[Neil Racki]

Yes ....

until a goalie stands on his head stealing a Cup

Then it will be back in vogue

 

[D1az]

It's easy for me to say as some random ice hockey fan, but I definitely fall into the category of people who would spend more on defense instead, and make sure that the goalies just have good coaches and sport psychologists who try to keep their heads cold and focused.

 

[BonMorrison]

I've watched enough hockey at this point in my life to comfortably say that goalies is truly the most overrated position. A team that has an elite system from both forwards and defense that compliments the goalies can overcome having a mid goalie in net. All's that to say, having a good goalie helps but it's not a dealbreaker.

 

[DownIsTheNewUp]

Basing this thread off of one year is almost meaningless. Do you have stats for the last 10 years? That might mean something.

Teams have their own statistical models that go way deeper than anything we’re doing here and base what they pay their goalie on that. Do you think they’re all just spending close to $100mil per years on player salary without any analysis?

 

[JKG33]

I remember in the NFL when teams were winning with journeyman QBs the whole “don’t pay QBs” was also all the rage.

You don’t need an elite goalie to win, but if you have a crappy one it can certainly stonewall you. Most goalies today are paid well because they aren’t a sieve, not because they consistently put up shutouts.

If you can somehow find a journeyman goalie that can give you decent nights without breaking the bank it’s probably the best way to go, but you still need to find them.

Someone mentioned Chris Osgood, it’s not exactly a secret that you just need okay goaltending to win and it’s been that way for a while, but we never hear about teams winning with horrendous goaltending for a reason.

I have to agree with this. QBs and goalies as far as contracts go are a great analogy.

If you have a truly elite one, youre fine paying them and will find success. Vasi, Bob, Shesterkin, Otter. They won't be perfect all the time but you'd rather have them than not.

But you dont wanna be stuck paying a mid/bottom tier guy top dollar, because that can absolutely tank a team. Grubauer, Elvis, Campbell, Jarry.

And then theres the hilarious Dak/Hellebuyck comp.. playoff frauds relative to their regular season system "success"

 

[shaner8989]

Agreed. Goaltending has been atrocious. They literally all suck. Sure everyone gets a good game here and there but as a whole it’s trash.

Even the supposed elite guys are shit.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Feel like we've had this debate for almost two decades now. I remember arguing about how dumb some contracts were like Bobrovsky's and Quick's were and they turned out to be at worst fine.

At this point I think the issue isn't so much paying big for goalies, but giving term to goalies who can't stay above replacement level. Seattle's Grubauer contract was much more devastating than paying Bob 10m a year. Seems like teams get themselves into trouble giving term to borderline starters when they need goalies (Tristan Jarry, Merzlikins, etc) and then they fall off.

 

[NVious]

There's not even so many goalies to "pay a premium" for to begin with.

But bad cheap goaltending isn't a problem until you have it, then you're paying 3-5 for some AHL sieve because you wanted to save 3-5 from paying someone 8-10 because "it doesn't make that much of a difference."

Yeah it doesn't make much of a difference.......until it does.

 

[soothsayer]

If you win by your goalie, you die by your goalie. I think some teams that spent big on their goalies have neglected to improve their team and system enough that they aren't a boom or bust in goal.

 

[Laus723]

Teams that would be goalie cap compliant with an 8% goalie salary cap:

Las Vegas Golden Knights $6,700,000
Edmonton Oilers $3,600,000
Dallas Stars $5,000,000
Toronto Maple Leafs $3,266,667
Washington Capitals $2,641,667
Carolina Hurricanes $5,400,000

Yet, in the last 5 years only 1 of those teams (the one with the highest cap) have a Cup. Three of those 5 years were Bob and Vasi, and both played huge roles in their teams getting Cups.

That said, like other positions, there are goalies who are overpaid and some who are underpaid. It’s hard to find the right mix sometimes.

 

[ViD]

Wild how Florida manages to ice such a strong roster with some star power at the top while also paying Bob $10million a season.

That’s the two time Vezina winner, a Stanley cup champ, Bob for you

 

[ViD]

This thread is hilarious considering what we hear every year

Edmonton wins the cup with elite goaltending

Toronto wins the cup with elite goaltending

Well, guess what, elite goaltending ain’t cheap