CSB and McKenzie are the least likely to overrate. Could they eventually be wrong? Sure. But Demidov could be the next Yakupov once he starts playing against men rather than boys in a cr@ppy junior league.
Speculation: With the third pick in the 2024 NHL draft the Anaheim Ducks select...(Plus other Draft talk)
- Thread starter Rasp
- Start date
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
The problem with your premise is that many of the scouting report aren't trusting the offense to blossom. I watched several scouting reports say similar things about that offense not being there. It's possible that you're reading scouting reports done in Sept/Oct, where Silayev's offense did pop off.
| Silayev | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Set | Games | G | A | Pts | PPG | +/- | |
| Total | 63 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 0.17 | -9 | |
| 1 to 9 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.67 | 1 | |
| 10 to 63 | 54 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.09 | -10 |
Which sample are you hedging your bet on, the 9-game sample or the 54-game sample?
What about his D-1 offensive production?
- 41 games, 2g + 6a = 8 pts (0.195 ppg rate), and -3 rating.
The sample size of his offense not blossoming becomes larger when extended to his D-1 season.
Defensively is where Silayev will make his mark. At 6'7 height, he will have a stick taller than some NHL'ers. Which means his disrupt radius (wingspan + stick length) has a humongous range! If we project that onto NA ice instead of Euro ice, then he should control a fourth of the ice in the D-zone. And the fact some scouts love his backward skating more than forward skating, means he might be able to defense 1v2 better than most - especially when including his disrupt radius.
Anaheim did take a shutdown D 6th overall in 2012 with Hampus. We say shutdown b/c Hampus made a huge mark playing in the men's league (2nd Swedish tier, HockeyAllsvenskan) with his defense. Several accounts say without Lindholm's defense, they never would have been pushing for the SHL level in the playoffs. Yet, Lindholm did have offense developing in lower leagues. And once Lindholm adjusted to playing against men in 20 regular season games, his offense starting showing up in the playoffs.
| Hampus Lindholm | D+0 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League | Games | G | A | Pts | PPG | +/- | |
| J18 Elit | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4.00 | 7 | |
| J 20 Super Elit | 28 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 0.61 | 25 | |
| HockeyAllsvenskan | 20 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.20 | -1 | |
| HA playoffs | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.50 | 5 |
If Silayev's offense is that projectably great, then a majority of the scouting media would have him ranked in the top-3 often. Is that the case? Here's a compilation of rankings gathered on his Elite Prospects page:
Only four scouting media listed have Silayev in the top-3 in McKenzie (TSN), Kennedy (THN), FC Hockey, and CSB (EU). There are many who like Silayev's defense very much, but something is preventing them to want to rate him into the top-3 comfortably... which is his lack of offensive projection.
Schenn had 28 points in the WHL.
Silayev is playing top 4 minutes in the second best men’s league in the world.
They are not the same.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
I think a lot of fans are sleeping on Cayden Lindstrom. Guess the injuries this year have scared many away, but there are recent tweets of that his hand is almost 100% healed and his back issue is a common thing that doesn't need surgery. (I can't find the tweet, but it's been shared on here a couple of times.)
For myself, I'm a huge fan of Lindstrom.
1. C Celebrini
2. RD Levshunov
3. C Lindstrom or LD Dickinson (if we're still focused on improving the defensive side with some offense)
I would think the Hawks would have some interest in Lindstrom. Here is Elite Prospect's scorecard on Lindstrom.
You get high-end/elite offense, you get size with 6'4 and 216 lbs, you get good skating, and he plays center! With the 'Hawks, that would be a great 1-2 punch down the middle with Bedard-Lindstrom. He's over 50% in the FO dot as well in the WHL in the regular season and post-season.
With Anaheim, Lindstrom would be a LW. He can take the faceoffs if Carlsson or Zegras are still deficient on the dot. One way of playing good-great defense would be to always be playing in the offensive zone. Lindstrom would factor into that greatly.
- Ducks' Youth forward group
- RW Terry (6'0)
- C/LW Zegras (6'0)
- C McTavish (6'0)
- LW/C/RW Cutter Gauthier (6'2)
- C Carlsson (6'4)
- RW Colangelo (6'2)
Talk about being spoiled if the Ducks grab Lindstrom!
It's certainly possible and he is a legit top 5 candidate. I just wonder if PV would take a future top 6 winger over a top 2 D (either AL or AS). Oh, to be a fly on the wall of these draft meetings!
To me, all the top defensemen this year have offense that I don't see how they bring it to the NHL. This is the order I have them, and it's not very high up in the draft for me, for any of them. I'd rather have Demidov, Lindstrom over all and I have a feeling the rest of the defensemen in the 1st will end up better than this whole bunch. That is why I am not on board with "D on #3".
Dickinson is the one who most scouts cite as the questionable offense but while I agree somewhat, he loses the least if his offense doesn't necessarily translate. He is the one I find is the most consistent at doing things he could use in the NHL.
Levshunov I've watched quite a bit after the season to see what the Ducks are potentially getting and I have to say, for as much good as he brings, he has just as many blank spots and questionmarks around his play. I don't know who he would be in the NHL, he can transition quickly, play physical, big but he has kind of rough stickhandling and he won't beat guys from the blueline like a Mintyukov or Zellweger. And the stuff he does being is inconsistent. He could be the best of the draft but man, he is quite a project to me for a top3 pick.
Silayev, I don't understand how a guy can be so hyped for simply being big and fast. Talk about projects, at least Levshunov will become an NHL player. Silayev could aswell but he is not one now.
Dickinson is the one who most scouts cite as the questionable offense but while I agree somewhat, he loses the least if his offense doesn't necessarily translate. He is the one I find is the most consistent at doing things he could use in the NHL.
Levshunov I've watched quite a bit after the season to see what the Ducks are potentially getting and I have to say, for as much good as he brings, he has just as many blank spots and questionmarks around his play. I don't know who he would be in the NHL, he can transition quickly, play physical, big but he has kind of rough stickhandling and he won't beat guys from the blueline like a Mintyukov or Zellweger. And the stuff he does being is inconsistent. He could be the best of the draft but man, he is quite a project to me for a top3 pick.
Silayev, I don't understand how a guy can be so hyped for simply being big and fast. Talk about projects, at least Levshunov will become an NHL player. Silayev could aswell but he is not one now.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
This McKenzie who wrote on his May 6th ranking article:
Buckle up because it looks like it’s going to be an unpredictable ride.
As one scout put it, “Celebrini is going No. 1, but the next five or six teams [picking after No. 1] might all get the No. 2 prospect on their [respective] lists. There’s that much varied opinion [on the top prospects after Celebrini].”
The lack of clear consensus beyond Celebrini — from No. 2 through to No. 10 and beyond — would be unprecedented. I’ve been doing draft rankings like this one for more than 35 years, and I don’t recall a year where the Top 10 is such a hodgepodge of opinion.
Bob McKenzie's NHL Draft Ranking: An 'unpredictable ride' after Macklin Celebrini | TSN
Ten out of 10 NHL club team scouts surveyed in the past week by TSN have Macklin Celebrini as the undisputed No. 1 draft prospect. Beyond Celebrini, though? Buckle up.
www.tsn.ca
CSB (NA) Final Ranking has Lev 2nd behind Celebrini. There is no CSB (NA + EU) ranking. It's possible that Lev ranks ahead of Silayev within the CSB community, but we'll never know.
I do trust watching several scouting videos that identify the same flaws of a prospect that also is reflected in the production, or there lack of. IMO, Silayev was rushed to the KHL due to his defense (mainly size + skating). And because of his defense being more important to the KHL team, it has stunted that potential offense - though, that wasn't much of an offensive outburst in his D-1 season. We did that to our own Lundestrom on NA ice.
The offensive hype happened in a 9-game stint early in the season. That's not a large enough sample to go overboard about his potential offense. His defense, however, might be devastatingly great due to his skating and disruption radius (wingspan + stick length) on a smaller rink. He's a shutdown D with minimal offense. That's fine, but at #3 overall? It is too rich for me. I'd rather go with Dickinson if we want top-end defense b/c he at least has shown offensive growth.
The MHL and OHL/CHL have similar age range players of 16-20, iirc.
| D-1 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prospect | League | Games | G | A | Pts | PPG | +/- | |
| Silayev | MHL | 41 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0.20 | -3 | |
| Dickinson | OHL | 62 | 9 | 14 | 23 | 0.37 | 5 |
Problem with Dickinson is if he plays too fast with the puck in transition, then he might get into trouble b/c he is still a work in progress in processing the ice that fast offensively. Best to give it up to an actual OFD early in the Dzone at the NHL level. Then again, he offense took a huge step forward as he went from 0.37 ppg to 1.03 ppg between one summer. Maybe he can adapt better as he grows more comfy with that offense, but I won't be expecting him to turn into scoring phenom at all. If he can produce similar to Hampus offensively and be stout defensively, then that's a better investment.
Or go Lindstrom, if Lev is gone by #3. Lindstrom's EP scorecard is damned impressive. As McKenzie shared in his article, there's a jumble after Celebrini and just comes down to preference.
How could that not be exciting? A big, fast, physical D could put this team over the top. He’s playing in the 2nd best league on the planet, he’s less of a project than Levshunov who you are certain will become an NHL player.
The guys over at NHL.com have an interesting mock...the top 5 has all the usual suspects but the two big D go 2nd and 3rd. It's a little surprising that both Kimmelman and Morreale are in agreement.This McKenzie who wrote on his May 6th ranking article:
Buckle up because it looks like it’s going to be an unpredictable ride.As one scout put it, “Celebrini is going No. 1, but the next five or six teams [picking after No. 1] might all get the No. 2 prospect on their [respective] lists. There’s that much varied opinion [on the top prospects after Celebrini].”The lack of clear consensus beyond Celebrini — from No. 2 through to No. 10 and beyond — would be unprecedented. I’ve been doing draft rankings like this one for more than 35 years, and I don’t recall a year where the Top 10 is such a hodgepodge of opinion.
Bob McKenzie's NHL Draft Ranking: An 'unpredictable ride' after Macklin Celebrini | TSN
Ten out of 10 NHL club team scouts surveyed in the past week by TSN have Macklin Celebrini as the undisputed No. 1 draft prospect. Beyond Celebrini, though? Buckle up.
CSB (NA) Final Ranking has Lev 2nd behind Celebrini. There is no CSB (NA + EU) ranking. It's possible that Lev ranks ahead of Silayev within the CSB community, but we'll never know.
I do trust watching several scouting videos that identify the same flaws of a prospect that also is reflected in the production, or there lack of. IMO, Silayev was rushed to the KHL due to his defense (mainly size + skating). And because of his defense being more important to the KHL team, it has stunted that potential offense - though, that wasn't much of an offensive outburst in his D-1 season. We did that to our own Lundestrom on NA ice.
The offensive hype happened in a 9-game stint early in the season. That's not a large enough sample to go overboard about his potential offense. His defense, however, might be devastatingly great due to his skating and disruption radius (wingspan + stick length) on a smaller rink. He's a shutdown D with minimal offense. That's fine, but at #3 overall? It is too rich for me. I'd rather go with Dickinson if we want top-end defense b/c he at least has shown offensive growth.
The MHL and OHL/CHL have similar age range players of 16-20, iirc.
D-1 Prospect League Games G A Pts PPG +/- Silayev MHL Dickinson OHL
Problem with Dickinson is if he plays too fast with the puck in transition, then he might get into trouble b/c he is still a work in progress in processing the ice that fast offensively. Best to give it up to an actual OFD early in the Dzone at the NHL level. Then again, he offense took a huge step forward as he went from 0.37 ppg to 1.03 ppg between one summer. Maybe he can adapt better as he grows more comfy with that offense, but I won't be expecting him to turn into scoring phenom at all. If he can produce similar to Hampus offensively and be stout defensively, then that's a better investment.
Or go Lindstrom, if Lev is gone by #3. Lindstrom's EP scorecard is damned impressive. As McKenzie shared in his article, there's a jumble after Celebrini and just comes down to preference.
Mock 2024 NHL Draft: Experts split after Celebrini, Levshunov, Silayev go top 3 | NHL.com
1st set of NHL.com predictions surrounded by intrigue on what happens next
www.nhl.com
Yeah, regarding their full potential. I trust neither and prefer the forwards. Essentially Dickinson is what Silayev could become, just 4 inches shorter. And that development is something I don't see happening in the KHL, where he unfortunately finds himself, so there you go.
Ducks DVM
sowcufucakky
I remember a team taking a for sure shutdown guy allowing us to take Fowler
Emerald Duck
Registered User
If Chicago take Levshunov then I'm listening to offers from teams who really want Demidov at #3.
I see Silayev, Lindstrom and Dickinson going in the top 6. All 3 of them would be valuable in our pipeline, but probably won't play at the NHL level for 2-3 years.
What does Columbus, Montreal or even Utah have to offer to swap picks and move up to #3 ? We need young NHL ready talent now while we keep our pipeline strong.
I see Silayev, Lindstrom and Dickinson going in the top 6. All 3 of them would be valuable in our pipeline, but probably won't play at the NHL level for 2-3 years.
What does Columbus, Montreal or even Utah have to offer to swap picks and move up to #3 ? We need young NHL ready talent now while we keep our pipeline strong.
Interesting that the player in question was ranked 17th for N/A skaters in the final CSB rankings. Fowler was ranked 5th. In McKenzie's rankings the player in question was ranked 15th while Fowler was 5th. Looks like the Rangers may have reached a bit.
In any event, I'm having a hard time processing how taking a guy who is #1 (Euro) in CSB rankings and #3 in McKenzie's ranking is at all similar to the situation you are referring to.
Hard pass on that little midget. No more midgets we already have Zegras and Terry who are both smaller finness players. That’s probably 1 to many for our Gm liking already:
Demidov is 5’11 190 as a 17 year old.
Calling him a midget is a bad look.
I think that is a little extreme of an example.
We took Lindholm over Trouba and Dumba who were both looked at as offensive guys.
This is true.
At some point, a team needs some defensemen who can really play defense. Warren, Moore, Smith and Hinds are the only defense first D in the system and they are all far far away from making a contribution at the NHL level.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
We thought Lindholm was just a shutdown guy, but he had offensive potential. He's a two-way guy with a forte on defense. That's kinda like how Dickinson is built, but I don't know if he is on the same level as Hampus defense coming out from the draft. Silayev does not currently possess the same offensive production as Lindholm did when he came out.
| Hampus, D+0 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League | Games | G | A | Pts | PPG | +/- | |
| J18 Elit | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4.00 | 7 | |
| J20 Super Elit | 28 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 0.61 | 25 | |
| HockeyAllsvenskan | 20 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.20 | -1 | |
| playoffs Kvalserien SHL | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.50 | 5 |
That is the proof about Lindholm's offense existing pre-draft. Below is proof that his offense did carry over to the NHL.
| NHL Career | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GP | G | A | Pts | PPG | +/- | |
| Lindholm | 745 | 70 | 236 | 306 | 0.411 | 151 | |
| Dumba | 674 | 83 | 165 | 248 | 0.368 | 11 | |
| Trouba | 748 | 73 | 236 | 309 | 0.413 | 56 |
The one time an NHL team told him to play offensive was last year with the Bruins, who were without McAvoy for a month or so.
Ducks DVM
sowcufucakky
Yes and no. Lindholm had put up at least offense previous to being drafted. Everything about Silayev says he COULD be a unicorn IF he develops some offense. He’s absolutely jot done that to this point though. 6 points in his first 6 KHL games this year followed by 5 in the next 57.
I don’t watch any of these prospects, I don’t actually have an opinion on this. I don’t think anyone on these boards, or likely most of the pundits, have actually seen these prospects enough to have a useful opinion that’s not dripping with conjecture. I do see people saying he’s got a floor of a bottom pairing D, which, to me, waiting until 3-4 seasons from now for something that you can get for a 5th round pick or UFA with the 3rd overall pick would be massively underwhelming. The “he will automatically get points playing on a top pairing” doesn’t work for me.
I’m also concerned with having to wait until the ‘26-27 season to get what people want as our top pairing D does to the rebuild. Do we just not look for that guy until then? It’s a valid question to take under consideration.
Edit - floor not ceiling
Ducks DVM
sowcufucakky
Accurate, but they have 2 full seasons to figure that out before this guy could first conceivably be in North America.
Oh I agree but when you can draft one who could be a cornerstone on D for the next dozen years you've got to do it...those opportunities are few and far between...like a getting a cornerstone 1C in Carlsson last year.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
We're talking about a shutdown D at this moment and we're equating a shutdown D with a cornerstone 1C like Carlsson? Finding 1C is mostly done in the top-10, usually in the top-3. Finding a top-end, shutdown defense can be found outside the top-10 a lot more often than you think. Silayev isn't even on Hampus' defensive level coming out at the draft b/c Hampus willed his HockeyAllsvenskan team into the SHL. But Hampus had shown he can produce offensively at a far higher rate than Silayev.
| Silayev (KHL) | D+0 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Set | Games | G | A | Pts | PPG | +/- | |
| Total | 63 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 0.17 | -9 | |
| 1 to 9 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.67 | 1 | |
| 10 to 63 | 54 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.09 | -10 | |
| . | |||||||
| Playoffs | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 |
| Hampus | D+0 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League | Games | G | A | Pts | PPG | +/- | |
| J18 Elit | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4.00 | 7 | |
| J 20 Super Elit | 28 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 0.61 | 25 | |
| HockeyAllsvenskan | 20 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.20 | -1 | |
| playoff Kvalserien SHL | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.50 | 5 |
For recent example of finding a top-end, shutdown D outside the top-10, the Blackhawks drafted 6'6 Alex Vlasic in the 2nd round, #43 overall in the 2019 draft. He's looking very good and played top pairing minutes in his full rookie, NHL year this past season. It just takes time for shutdown defensemen to get to the NHL level b/c it's Vlasic's D+5 season.
Chicago might have another potential top-4 defensive d-man in 6'4 Del Mastro. He got his first taste in the NHL at the end of this season and might be starting full time next season as a rookie. His first year in the AHL was great, finished 2nd in +/- with +14 (high = +20, low = -19) and tied for 5th in scoring with 37 points (high = 63 pts), as per AHL.com. Del Mastro was drafted in the 4th round of the 2021 draft.
airforceones25
Registered User
All the "Russian factor" posters in shambles with the rumors Mitchkov coming over early after getting his contract terminated....
Riggins
Registered User
If Levshunov goes #2, Montreal would probably be motivated to get to #3 for Demidov. Maybe #5 + Winnipeg 1st which will be #26 or #27 + a 3rd rounder or B prospect?
I could see Anaheim going for this if they aren't enamored with Demidov and they value Silayev and Dickinson similarly. They would be guaranteed one of those two at #5 in this scenario.
The Ducks could get aggressive having the Jets and Oilers 1sts and two 2nds in trying to move up to target someone in the teens.
Ad
Upcoming events
-
French Open - Women's Olga Danilovic vs Marketa VondrousovaWagers: 3Staked: $1,659.00Event closes- Updated:
-
-
French Open - Men's Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos TsitsipasWagers: 3Staked: $1,040.00Event closes- Updated:
-
French Open - Women's Coco Gauff vs Elisabetta CocciarettoWagers: 1Staked: $600.00Event closes- Updated:
-
