Speculation: With the third pick in the 2024 NHL draft the Anaheim Ducks select...(Draft is June 28th @ 4pm PT. ESPN. ESPN+)

[Ducks DVM]

His groupings (he doesn't call them tiers) are as follows:
1-7
8-11
12-24

He says a substantial drop-off after 24...yes, the same 24 the Ducks would have had if the Oilers hadn't gone crazy.

I saw that, and lamented.

Maybe we can salvage a 4th round pick out of it if Florida goes full Toronto.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Bpa is a 2nd round and after term/strategy imho

Top 3 is statistically a team’s best chance to get an all star player. Top 5 best chance for a legit 1st liner, top 10 is the major cutoff. You absolutely take BPA there.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

He is worth checking out as he gives a lot of detail and also had Carlsson #2 last year.

The list lines up with what people have been saying about us too. Lindstrom injury knocks him down and if we dont want a Russian then its Sennecke and Yakemchuk next. Going to be some crazy curveballs this draft.

1. Celebrini
2. Lindstrom
3. Demidov
4. Silayev
5. Sennecke
6. Yakemchuk
7. Iginla
8. Dickinson
9. Levshunov
10. Buium
11. Catton
12. Solberg
13. Parekh
14. Luchanko
15. Vanacker
16. Greentree
17. Jiricek
18. Helenius
19. Miettinen
20. Eiserman
21. Freij
22. Pulkkinen
23. Chernyshov
24. Brandsegg-Nygard
25. Marques
26. Hage
27. Basha
28. Boisvert
29. Brunicke
30. Connelly
31. Hemming
32. Surin

I watched his video breakdown of Lev and he is very critical as well as including a comparison to a Montreal draft pick, which goes off the rails a bit. Then he recently put out a video on Sennecke and it's like 180° video where it's roses everywhere.

But reading his scouting report on Lev, the guy goes flips back and forth on Lev. I don't believe he knows that Lev was an OFD trying to become a 2-way D whereas Reinbacher is a DFD trying to become a 2-way D. He calls Lev not competitive partially comparing him to Reinbacher, but then identifies that Lev is actually communicating nonverbally all the time on the ice that Lev is like a coach on the ice. He dings Lev's offense for being simple and very efficient as opposed to going 1v1 like a Parekh or Yakemchuk, but also dings Lev's defense... yet Lev the team in +/- as a rookie in the NCAA. In his conclusion, he give importance to Lev's tool box for his defense than his offense. Also in his conclusion, he only focuses on Lev's D+0 season as he doesn't identify Lev's improvement defensively between his USHL and NCAA seasons. From his write up:

"Levshunov won’t have been one of my favorites this season, but when I look at the projection of his toolbox, I give more importance to the impact he will have defensively than other players can achieve with the puck. He was in his first steps in the NCAA and it remains possible that he will improve in the coming years."​

It feels like he doesn't want to give Lev's improvement over the season as his early season scouting really stuck on him, especially when being compared to Reinbacher. St. Simon just doesn't want to let go. But his video scouting review on Sennecke is all roses and his write up on Sennecke. Here's what St. Simon wrote up for Sennecke:

"As mentioned in the introduction, Sennecke’s progression curve wasn’t all Smooth Sailing. At the start of the second half of the season, he was demoted from his line and his playing time decreased. At times, his time on the power play was even taken away (at least, a good part of it). On the other hand, when you draft a player, it is not based on what he looked like in February. You draft him for the promise he showed at the end of the season and for the future.​

​

It is also true that Sennecke did not have a very productive season offensively. This worried me myself during the year. Especially since I consider that the OHL, overall, is possibly weaker than what we were used to before. Decent players, nothing more, accumulated very inflated statistics at times, and on the other hand, I watched Sennecke, who is much more talented, struggling to have more than a point per game. The big click happened when we paired him with Calum Ritchie. I understand people being concerned based on this fact, however, when we look at Sennecke’s individual skills, we have the right to expect him to be placed with the best offensive elements of his tea, so, in the end, does it really matter if his offensive production wasn’t so good during the regular season?"​

What a huge difference in scouting between the two prospects! Sennecke's late scoring binge only happened because of another player raising his game. Lev was carrying his team offensively and defensively as well as improved his game throughout the NCAA season! So Sennecke's is ranked higher than Lev because of a small sample surge that only occurred by being paired with a talented team player in Calum Ritchie. A top-5 pick that needs talent to carry him instead of him carrying the team is sus.

I am in awe of his detailed scouting, but turned away with is biases simultaneously.

 

[Son of Gib]

For me, this sums up the logic of the Zegras trade rumors.

 

[Rasp]

I watched his video breakdown of Lev and he is very critical as well as including a comparison to a Montreal draft pick, which goes off the rails a bit. Then he recently put out a video on Sennecke and it's like 180° video where it's roses everywhere.

But reading his scouting report on Lev, the guy goes flips back and forth on Lev. I don't believe he knows that Lev was an OFD trying to become a 2-way D whereas Reinbacher is a DFD trying to become a 2-way D. He calls Lev not competitive partially comparing him to Reinbacher, but then identifies that Lev is actually communicating nonverbally all the time on the ice that Lev is like a coach on the ice. He dings Lev's offense for being simple and very efficient as opposed to going 1v1 like a Parekh or Yakemchuk, but also dings Lev's defense... yet Lev the team in +/- as a rookie in the NCAA. In his conclusion, he give importance to Lev's tool box for his defense than his offense. Also in his conclusion, he only focuses on Lev's D+0 season as he doesn't identify Lev's improvement defensively between his USHL and NCAA seasons. From his write up:

"Levshunov won’t have been one of my favorites this season, but when I look at the projection of his toolbox, I give more importance to the impact he will have defensively than other players can achieve with the puck. He was in his first steps in the NCAA and it remains possible that he will improve in the coming years."​

It feels like he doesn't want to give Lev's improvement over the season as his early season scouting really stuck on him, especially when being compared to Reinbacher. St. Simon just doesn't want to let go. But his video scouting review on Sennecke is all roses and his write up on Sennecke. Here's what St. Simon wrote up for Sennecke:

"As mentioned in the introduction, Sennecke’s progression curve wasn’t all Smooth Sailing. At the start of the second half of the season, he was demoted from his line and his playing time decreased. At times, his time on the power play was even taken away (at least, a good part of it). On the other hand, when you draft a player, it is not based on what he looked like in February. You draft him for the promise he showed at the end of the season and for the future.​

​

It is also true that Sennecke did not have a very productive season offensively. This worried me myself during the year. Especially since I consider that the OHL, overall, is possibly weaker than what we were used to before. Decent players, nothing more, accumulated very inflated statistics at times, and on the other hand, I watched Sennecke, who is much more talented, struggling to have more than a point per game. The big click happened when we paired him with Calum Ritchie. I understand people being concerned based on this fact, however, when we look at Sennecke’s individual skills, we have the right to expect him to be placed with the best offensive elements of his tea, so, in the end, does it really matter if his offensive production wasn’t so good during the regular season?"​

What a huge difference in scouting between the two prospects! Sennecke's late scoring binge only happened because of another player raising his game. Lev was carrying his team offensively and defensively as well as improved his game throughout the NCAA season! So Sennecke's is ranked higher than Lev because of a small sample surge that only occurred by being paired with a talented team player in Calum Ritchie. A top-5 pick that needs talent to carry him instead of him carrying the team is sus.

I am in awe of his detailed scouting, but turned away with is biases simultaneously.

You can ask him about it if you wanted clarity on it. He regularly posts on the forum. The Most In-Depth Analysis of the 2024 NHL Draft, by Simon St-L.

 

[Gliff]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1803752700447752288

 

[airforceones25]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1803752700447752288

But he's a midget and can't grow. lol I wonder why people can't use their own eyes. The kid is legit.

 

[Gliff]

It's the Ducks so I'm sure I am wrong, but this just seems like a no brainer to me. Either they get the best defensemen available or they get a potential top line RW.

All the criticism of Demidov has either been dispelled (Russian factor, size) or is out of his control (competition). If he was John Daniels from London Ontario and played in the OHL he would be closer to #1 then #3.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

I went from leaning Silayev to now Demidov. It'll take only 1 year before he arrives (1 year left in KHL) & he's the kind of prospect that I think he makes the team in 2025-26 season.

BUT Chicago is probably gonna draft him especially since he's 6'05 tall.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Dibs on "Carlsson2Demidov", sorry @Zegs2sendhelp

 

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[Perry was Here]

It is also true that Sennecke did not have a very productive season offensively. This worried me myself during the year. Especially since I consider that the OHL, overall, is possibly weaker than what we were used to before. Decent players, nothing more, accumulated very inflated statistics at times, and on the other hand, I watched Sennecke, who is much more talented, struggling to have more than a point per game. The big click happened when we paired him with Calum Ritchie. I understand people being concerned based on this fact, however, when we look at Sennecke’s individual skills, we have the right to expect him to be placed with the best offensive elements of his tea, so, in the end, does it really matter if his offensive production wasn’t so good during the regular season?

Huh?

This the thing about "detailed analysis". All the rest is fluff and the bolded part is what counts. Yes it really does matter when a team like Anaheim might consider him 3rd OA. Not every prospect is going to have a post season bump.

 

[lwvs84]

I think I'm still traumatized by all the injuries, so I don't want Lindstrom (to be clear, the only reason is the injury issues, not the upside). If they go forward at 3, hopefully it's Demidov. Run something like:
Gauthier-Carlsson-RW (Colangelo? That would make that line big)
LW-McTavish-Demidov
LW-Zegras-Terry
Probably having bigger, physical, puck retrieval/net crashing LW on those other two lines. By the way, this is more of a long term idea which is why I'm not putting in Killorn/Vatrano/etc.

Defense would be an issue, Ducks would maybe have 3 pairs that pay relatively similar minutes instead of a real top pair? But mix and match at end of games depending on what you need.
Mintyukov-? (Roy/Pesce?)
LaCombe-Luneau
Zellweger-DFD (Hinds?)

One of the big defensive RD might be a good target Anaheim trades up a bit from the Oiler pick. Flip side is if Ducks draft D, there could be a true 24 min a night top pair, Verbeek needs to find more complimentary forwards in FA or draft and/or load up the top 6 instead of spreading the wealth. I like the idea of 3 lines that can cause matchup nightmares and 3 pairs that are solid. It makes it harder for other teams to match up, any of the 3 lines/pairs can get hot in any given game, and it reduces fatigue by keeping minutes down.

This obviously doesn't take into account who we take next year (even under ideal situations, we're picking in the top half of the first round) and any forward/D that breaks out and shows they are legit top 6/4 players.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I think I'm still traumatized by all the injuries, so I don't want Lindstrom (to be clear, the only reason is the injury issues, not the upside). If they go forward at 3, hopefully it's Demidov. Run something like:
Gauthier-Carlsson-RW (Colangelo? That would make that line big)
LW-McTavish-Demidov
LW-Zegras-Terry
Probably having bigger, physical, puck retrieval/net crashing LW on those other two lines. By the way, this is more of a long term idea which is why I'm not putting in Killorn/Vatrano/etc.

Defense would be an issue, Ducks would maybe have 3 pairs that pay relatively similar minutes instead of a real top pair? But mix and match at end of games depending on what you need.
Mintyukov-? (Roy/Pesce?)
LaCombe-Luneau
Zellweger-DFD (Hinds?)

One of the big defensive RD might be a good target Anaheim trades up a bit from the Oiler pick. Flip side is if Ducks draft D, there could be a true 24 min a night top pair, Verbeek needs to find more complimentary forwards in FA or draft and/or load up the top 6 instead of spreading the wealth. I like the idea of 3 lines that can cause matchup nightmares and 3 pairs that are solid. It makes it harder for other teams to match up, any of the 3 lines/pairs can get hot in any given game, and it reduces fatigue by keeping minutes down.

This obviously doesn't take into account who we take next year (even under ideal situations, we're picking in the top half of the first round) and any forward/D that breaks out and shows they are legit top 6/4 players.

Kings might be able to hold onto Roy if they want with the PLD trade…. But maybe they feel they can fill that internally and let him go. And it sounds like pesce is signing long term in Carolina.

Rhd is going to actually be tough to fill, I’d argue rh shot dmen is hardest position to fill in league…. Part of the reason I don’t mind going levshunov/yakemchuk

 

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[Smirnov2Chistov]

I say F it and have zero expectations going into this.

 

[Dostwall]

I think I’m all in on whichever of Demidov/Levshunov that Chicago doesn’t take.

Verbeek always talks about hockey sense and compete, and Pronman rated Demidov as above average in both.

 

[SingDomestica]

It's the Ducks so I'm sure I am wrong, but this just seems like a no brainer to me. Either they get the best defensemen available or they get a potential top line RW.

All the criticism of Demidov has either been dispelled (Russian factor, size) or is out of his control (competition). If he was John Daniels from London Ontario and played in the OHL he would be closer to #1 then #3.

If he played in the OHL, would he have put up the same numbers or highlights? I don’t understand how it’s disregarded that he played against competition that is at a lower level than the CHL. The video out on him is, quite frankly, the most impressive out of all the prospects out there. But if you’re doing it against mediocre competition, it just brings more question marks.

 

[lwvs84]

Kings might be able to hold onto Roy if they want with the PLD trade…. But maybe they feel they can fill that internally and let him go. And it sounds like pesce is signing long term in Carolina.

Rhd is going to actually be tough to fill, I’d argue rh shot dmen is hardest position to fill in league…. Part of the reason I don’t mind going levshunov/yakemchuk

Agreed, which is another reason I hope we get one of the big RHD with one of our other picks even if we get Lev/Silayev

 

[DavidBL]

Isn't Demidov a LW, not a RW?

 

[ScarTroy]

Isn't Demidov a LW, not a RW?

No he’s a left shot but plays right wing I’m fairly certain

 

[tomd]

No he’s a left shot but plays right wing I’m fairly certain

He does want to play center though

 

[Dirk316]

He's still below a below average sized soft player on an already top 6 lacking any kind of toughness. Lindstrom or Silayev make the most sense, comparable bpa and exact fits the team is missing

 

[airforceones25]

He's still below a below average sized soft player on an already top 6 lacking any kind of toughness. Lindstrom or Silayev make the most sense, comparable bpa and exact fits the team is missing

Have you even wathched him play? lol You'll see he is not those things. The kid doesn't shy away from contact and not afraid to take a hit. He's constantly the first one in after pucks along the boards. Just because you have skill doesn't make you soft. He's also has a very strong base, he backchecks and does a lot little things right. If people want to actually criticize Demidov it should be his top end speed or the fact he tries to make the highlight real play (similar to Zegras) Everyone has a comment when it comes to Demidov without ever actually watching the kid play. Open your eyes people.

Lindstrom and Silayev would be great options as well but I'm so tired of the Demidov slander. It's gotten way out of hand.

 

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