Prospect Info: With the #24 pick, the Wild select (D) Filip Johansson (Allsvenskan, Leksands IF)

[DeagleJenkins]

It’s not just poster opinions though. Brodin was regarded as a solid pick by the draft analysts and wasn’t a reach based on draft rankings, and most of the confusion was due in large part to not knowing who he was.

Sure he’s a defenseman, but when he’s got 1 point in 23 games both of the last seasons in Sweden’s B league, while a potentially dynamic center that we passed on has 45 points in 25 games (5th in the Q), it doesn’t look good. We need a high end center replacement sooner than we need a #4 RD.

is it fair to judge a center in a high scoring league vs a defenseman in the swedish b league point for point? there was clearly something in valenos game that many teams did not like.

 

[AKL]

is it fair to judge a center in a high scoring league vs a defenseman in the swedish b league point for point? there was clearly something in valenos game that many teams did not like.

Imagine if we passed in every player that other teams didn’t like.

Imagine that.

We wouldn’t be having this conversation right now because we wouldn’t have taken Johansson.

I didn’t say it was fair to compare them point for point, but all things considered, the ONLY argument for Johansson is “let’s wait and see, the Wild must have seen something in him that none of the other teams saw” (which is a horrible defense).

 

[123TripleDoge]

There's a google doc out there (which I can't link on these boards) of compiled draft boards from 30 NHL writers. Not a single one had him in the 1st round, only 1 had him in the first half of the 2nd round. His average ranking was a very late 2nd or early 3rd.

Maybe the Wild found something in him that no one else saw, I just have no idea what you are seeing to think that they deserve the benefit of the doubt here. If he was having a good or even okay season then sure, I'd give credit to the Wild scouting staff. So far he is having a worse year than last year, no one is talking about him, and his biggest measuring stick of making the WJC roster against his peers has been failed.

He's having a worse year than last year? Have you watched his games?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Fire the scouting staff, save some coin, let McKenzie do the legwork.

Profit.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Imagine if we passed in every player that other teams didn’t like.

Imagine that.

We wouldn’t be having this conversation right now because we wouldn’t have taken Johansson.

I didn’t say it was fair to compare them point for point, but all things considered, the ONLY argument for Johansson is “let’s wait and see, the Wild must have seen something in him that none of the other teams saw” (which is a horrible defense).

theres more argument then just wait and see approach but its being ignored and thats fine. i only brought up other teams passing on him as certain scouts opinions of this dynamic center made them pass on him even though by the ratings he should of went top 15, the same ratings and opinions saying FJ is a stupid pick in the 1st and should of went in the 3rd.

 

[AKL]

theres more argument then just wait and see approach but its being ignored and thats fine. i only brought up other teams passing on him as certain scouts opinions of this dynamic center made them pass on him even though by the ratings he should of went top 15, the same ratings and opinions saying FJ is a stupid pick in the 1st and should of went in the 3rd.

What are legitimate arguments to be made in the case of Johansson being better than Veleno?

 

[Bazeek]

What are legitimate arguments to be made in the case of Johansson being better than Veleno?

This isn't a great analog for a few reasons, but what was the argument in December of 2011 for Oscar Klefbom being better than Zack Phillips?

 

[AKL]

Fire the scouting staff, save some coin, let McKenzie do the legwork.

Profit.

If I were you I would retire the narrative that McKenzie can’t fathomably be knowledgeable about prospect rankings.

I’d also encourage you to consider that far more sources than McKenzie felt this pick was a massive reach.

Johansson was ranked significantly lower across the board than where he was taken. And there’s a reason that these outlets can usually reasonably predict the players taken in the first two rounds.

Fenton doesn’t automatically get the benefit of the doubt just because of what Nashville’s defense looks like, and if it was Flahr’s pick well, honestly his track record isn’t that great either.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

What are legitimate arguments to be made in the case of Johansson being better than Veleno?

there are none as comparing a center to a defenseman in different leagues is rather pointless. the only argument for either is based off of points and many people have said the league veleno is in is highly offensive leading to stat boost him even if he is sub par.

 

[AKL]

This isn't a great analog for a few reasons, but what was the argument in December of 2011 for Oscar Klefbom being better than Zach Philips?

I am not familiar enough with the 2011 draft to answer this question.

I will say that Veleno and Phillips are not the same player and Veleno generally excels at the things that held Phillips back. Namely, skating.

 

[AKL]

there are none as comparing a center to a defenseman in different leagues is rather pointless. the only argument for either is based off of points and many people have said the league veleno is in is highly offensive leading to stat boost him even if he is sub par.

I promise you can compare centers to defensemen to figure out which player you’d rather have. Teams do it all the time.

We have a history of Flahr drafting “smart character guys” over dynamically skilled guys with maybe a couple “flaws” and it typically not turning out as well as we hope. Now we have another “smart character guy.” Every player is different, but when the draft strategy is the exact same mediocre strategy as past years, you don’t get the benefit of the doubt and the fan base has no obligation to “wait and see.”

We’ve waited and seen for like 7 years now. The safe guy isn’t always the best pick. Just look at how the one non-safe player we took in the first round turned out.

 

[57special]

there are none as comparing a center to a defenseman in different leagues is rather pointless. the only argument for either is based off of points and many people have said the league veleno is in is highly offensive leading to stat boost him even if he is sub par.

You judge them by how they are doing relative to their peers.

Johansson is about 100th in points for Dmen within his league. Veleno is 5th in points, tied, or near tied with wunderkind Lafreniere.

I am all for defensive Dmen, but having one assist in 22 games is anemic by any standard.

It's not like MN is swimming in young , potentially elite, forward prospects.

I am not against getting picking a guy like Johansson, but not in the 1st round. Even he was surprised he was picked.
Any comparisons to Brodin are ridiculous. He was picked 10th, and was considered to be a good pick at the time. NOBODY was saying that about FJ.

 

[AKL]

You judge them by how they are doing relative to their peers.

Johansson is about 100th in points for Dmen within his league. Veleno is 5th in points, tied, or near tied with wunderkind Lafreniere.

I am all for defensive Dmen, but having one assist in 22 games is anemic by any standard.

It's not like MN is swimming in young , potentially elite, forward prospects.

I am not against getting picking a guy like Johansson, but not in the 1st round. Even he was surprised he was picked.
Any comparisons to Brodin are ridiculous. He was picked 10th, and was considered to be a good pick at the time. NOBODY was saying that about FJ.

+1

We have 0 solutions for top 6 centers in two years assuming Koivu and Staal leave/retire

We have the top pairing RD

Why are we taking a huge risk on a project RD that we hope can one day fill our second pairing when we have 0 solutions for top 6 centers in as little as 2 years?

 

[Bazeek]

I am not familiar enough with the 2011 draft to answer this question.

I will say that Veleno and Phillips are not the same player and Veleno generally excels at the things that held Phillips back. Namely, skating.

I get that, and Klefbom did have more marks in his favor when he was drafted than Johansson's got. He'd spent some time in the top Swedish league and did end up on the Swedish WJC team that year. And Phillips had red flags about his game and production that Veleno doesn't seem to have.

It's just hard to compare a guy that was drafted as a defensive defenseman and is playing in a notoriously low-scoring Swedish league to a an offensive forward playing the Q.

I do get being disappointed by this pick right now though. What little info we have isn't exactly cause for excitement.

 

[AKL]

I get that, and Klefbom did have more marks in his favor when he was drafted than Johansson's got. He'd spent some time in the top Swedish league and did end up on the Swedish WJC team that year. And Phillips had red flags about his game and production that Veleno doesn't seem to have.

It's just hard to compare a guy that was drafted as a defensive defenseman and is playing in a notoriously low-scoring Swedish league to a an offensive forward playing the Q.

I do get being disappointed by this pick right now though. What little info we have isn't exactly cause for excitement.

It’s anout 50/50 position and what we know about their abilities so far for me. There weren’t many potential top end centers available when we picked, and they don’t usually fall into your lap. Instead of jumping at the opportunity, we take a project RD knowing full well Dumba is filling the first pairing role for the next decade. So we drafted him to fill the second pairing and we still have the hole at C?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

If I were you I would retire the narrative that McKenzie can’t fathomably be knowledgeable about prospect rankings.

I’d also encourage you to consider that far more sources than McKenzie felt this pick was a massive reach.

Johansson was ranked significantly lower across the board than where he was taken. And there’s a reason that these outlets can usually reasonably predict the players taken in the first two rounds.

Fenton doesn’t automatically get the benefit of the doubt just because of what Nashville’s defense looks like, and if it was Flahr’s pick well, honestly his track record isn’t that great either.

Who do think helps gather the “consensus” around draft day?

 

[Bazeek]

It’s anout 50/50 position and what we know about their abilities so far for me. There weren’t many potential top end centers available when we picked, and they don’t usually fall into your lap. Instead of jumping at the opportunity, we take a project RD knowing full well Dumba is filling the first pairing role for the next decade. So we drafted him to fill the second pairing and we still have the hole at C?

Don't get me wrong, it doesn't make a ton of sense to me right now either

 

[AKL]

Who do think helps gather the “consensus” around draft day?

A variety of sources including, but certainly not limited to, brief conversations with the clubs about how they feel about a prospect

 

[2Pair]

What are legitimate arguments to be made in the case of Johansson being better than Veleno?

What are legitimate counter arguments?

 

[2Pair]

You judge them by how they are doing relative to their peers.

Johansson is about 100th in points for Dmen within his league. Veleno is 5th in points, tied, or near tied with wunderkind Lafreniere.

I am all for defensive Dmen, but having one assist in 22 games is anemic by any standard.

It's not like MN is swimming in young , potentially elite, forward prospects.

I am not against getting picking a guy like Johansson, but not in the 1st round. Even he was surprised he was picked.
Any comparisons to Brodin are ridiculous. He was picked 10th, and was considered to be a good pick at the time. NOBODY was saying that about FJ.

One guy is playing Pro hockey and one is playing high school.

 

[AKL]

What are legitimate counter arguments?

You have to make the arguments before I can make the counter arguments.

One guy is playing Pro hockey and one is playing high school.

The league Johansson is playing in is a step below the SHL, which is a step below the AHL, which is multiple steps below the NHL. Let's not give Johansson too much credit for his 1 assist in 23 games against men.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

I promise you can compare centers to defensemen to figure out which player you’d rather have. Teams do it all the time.

We have a history of Flahr drafting “smart character guys” over dynamically skilled guys with maybe a couple “flaws” and it typically not turning out as well as we hope. Now we have another “smart character guy.” Every player is different, but when the draft strategy is the exact same mediocre strategy as past years, you don’t get the benefit of the doubt and the fan base has no obligation to “wait and see.”

We’ve waited and seen for like 7 years now. The safe guy isn’t always the best pick. Just look at how the one non-safe player we took in the first round turned out.

i dont disagree with what you say about flahrs drafting philosophy, but what fenton said about FJ and what i did see in the scrimmage was good puck retrieval, quick to move the puck up ice and has good defensive positioning. i understand we have not gone for the elite skill with a few red flags or whatever it may be and i was all for bokk or veleno over FJ but i can see why they like this kid from what i have seen not including point production.

 

[2Pair]

You have to make the arguments before I can make the counter arguments.



The league Johansson is playing in is a step below the SHL, which is a step below the AHL, which is multiple steps below the NHL. Let's not give Johansson too much credit for his 1 assist in 23 games against men.

What are the arguments that Veleno is/was a better pick than Johansson?

 

[DeagleJenkins]

You judge them by how they are doing relative to their peers.

Johansson is about 100th in points for Dmen within his league. Veleno is 5th in points, tied, or near tied with wunderkind Lafreniere.

I am all for defensive Dmen, but having one assist in 22 games is anemic by any standard.

It's not like MN is swimming in young , potentially elite, forward prospects.

I am not against getting picking a guy like Johansson, but not in the 1st round. Even he was surprised he was picked.
Any comparisons to Brodin are ridiculous. He was picked 10th, and was considered to be a good pick at the time. NOBODY was saying that about FJ.

define peers? one league has older men in it, the other has high school kids. if you look at his past stats with his peers he does quite well. U20 U18 U16 teams like that meaning around his age level he produces well, when there is a bigger age gap which i dont see any facts on it yet but can almost be certain his current league is wider than just 18-20 year olds he is struggling to adapt currently. thats where his development will come into play. learn to play a mans game not a boys game.

 

[AKL]

What are the arguments that Veleno is/was a better pick than Johansson?

Veleno has incredible skating, a great hockey IQ, great playmaking ability, good goal scoring ability, a good two-way game, good vision, and is generally seen as a dynamic center with top-6, if not #1 potential by a majority of reports. Looking at highlights you can corroborate all those traits. I mean, there's a reason he was drafted as an exceptional player into the CHL. His weaknesses at the draft were considered to be strength (which at 17 shouldn't even be considered a weakness) and the question of his offensive potential (which he helped squash at the end of last season and certainly this season).

Johansson was a reach, plain and simple. He's a safe, smart, defensive, maybe two-way defenseman. His weaknesses at the draft were speed and balance which are harder to improve (especially speed). His offense was severely lacking in an inferior league. He has no outstanding qualities. By comparison, Brodin performed roughly the same in the junior tournaments, and actually performed better offensively in a better league, and was noted to be better defensively as well, and he turned into a 4, maybe 3 guy who scores 20 points.

When the potential of a guy like Veleno is still on the board and address positions of dire need, why are we reaching with this pick? If Dumba is assumed to be playing the 1RD position for the long term, is addressing the guy behind him really as important as addressing the fact that our top 2 centers are 35+ and our only real replacement option is maybe Ek if he figures out how to be an NHL player?

When looking at all of this, would YOU have picked Johansson?