Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season

[KingBogo]

Ok. I guess I’m on an island with my take. Perhaps I’m reading too much into Chevy’s comments about opportunity for young players. If a young player doesn’t have a chance to crack the lineup this year, then his comments ring pretty hollow.

I'm with you on his comments - he was purposefully stating that the youth will have an opportunity. How that plays out of course depends on the performance of the younger players themselves and the coaching staff's willingness to use them. But I'm very hopeful that one or two players can become a regular.

I'm on the same page. I also don't see it as some sort of youth movement. I see it as promoting your best young players on your farm team that are clearly better than the worst players on the NHL team. Our forward group is not some sort of juggernaut that can't be messed with. We have 5 point Axel and 1 point Kupari still listed on our roster. Both players with little value now and no role in our future. If we look at Lambert and Chibirkov, neither are still fresh faced kids. They are in D+3 and D+4. One will be 21 in a couple months the other 22 in February. Both have played multiple years of pro hockey in Europe and in the AHL. Just my opinion, but we need to start inserting our next generation of skilled players if we ever hope to mesh the older core with a group of young players with enough skill to actually compete.

 

[surixon]

Chevy practically says that every season so for me that is either just motivation for young players or the coach/GM are not on the same page. If these guys have good camps and still don't make the team that would lead me to believe that the words are just that as Scott Arniel is not the type of coach who can override the GM at this stage of his career.

They will want Salomonsson to play big minutes in all roles in NA this year which to me makes it almost 100% certain he's Moose bound. I doubt they are interested in him playing 15 minutes on the third pair.

Lambert I see as 50/50 to crack the roster.

They will likely give Ville a big push this year, so there is your young player on the roster playing regularly.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I am still wondering what is going to happen with Ehlers. Do we get another double long term signing announcement with him and Cole over the next few days to a week or does he start the season unsigned?

The reason why I think this is important is if he's unsigned I see them dealing him mid season and then inserting Brad in his spot.

If he's inked long term then it's once again fourth line minutes for a prospect and the team doesn't like doing that.

If Jets had received any decent offers for Ehlers I'm pretty sure he would be gone by now. Will the offers get better mid-season? Has his health status impeded a trade?

I think that if Chevy doesn't get an offer he likes Ehlers will be an own rental and walk after the season.

Maybe good early season performance will encourage traders. Just one more reason to give him 1st line minutes. Pump up his value.

 

[DRW204]

Chevy tried to sign both monahan and henrique... so that wasn't really signaling a youth movement. I fully expect ehlere as an own rental and a TD trade to add.

Even 10 years ago, tried to extend frolik or Ladd.
The team will fall into a youth movement with vets moving on, as long as Helle is here and playing at a high level I doubt they'll be like "oh gee time to rebuild"

 

[Howard Chuck]

There is a lot of debate on when to insert young players into the lineup, and I am far from a prospect hawk, but IMO Chevy needs to find a balance here. I'll argue over and over again for the importance of development, but IMO Chevy slow plays the introduction of young players to too great of an extent. I'll take Lambert as an example. He is now going into his D+3 season after a breakout AHL season. This is the same season Schiefele and Connor became regulars. Ehlers and Perfetti a year earlier. Just my opinion, but if you have a prospect ready you need to let him jump to the next level. Sure there will be a few growing pains, but the rewards for exceed the risks IMO.

Yes, and start early in the season so we can work out any growing pains before the end of regular season. We have to take a chance on an internal solution to 2C, and stop spending assets every year trying to rent one.

 

[KingBogo]

If Jets had received any decent offers for Ehlers I'm pretty sure he would be gone by now. Will the offers get better mid-season? Has his health status impeded a trade?

I think that if Chevy doesn't get an offer he likes Ehlers will be an own rental and walk after the season.

Maybe good early season performance will encourage traders. Just one more reason to give him 1st line minutes. Pump up his value.

Or it ends up just like Helly and Scheifele last season, where there was endless debates on trade value and what was offered or if they will be own rentals or be traded at the TDL. And it turned out the organization wanted to re-sign them and long term deals were in place by the start of the season.

 

[tbcwpg]

I'm on the same page. I also don't see it as some sort of youth movement. I see it as promoting your best young players on your farm team that are clearly better than the worst players on the NHL team. Our forward group is not some sort of juggernaut that can't be messed with. We have 5 point Axel and 1 point Kupari still listed on our roster. Both players with little value now and no role in our future. If we look at Lambert and Chibirkov, neither are still fresh faced kids. They are in D+3 and D+4. One will be 21 in a couple months the other 22 in February. Both have played multiple years of pro hockey in Europe and in the AHL. Just my opinion, but we need to start inserting our next generation of skilled players if we ever hope to mesh the older core with a group of young players with enough skill to actually compete.

But Kupari is in the PB most of the time and Axel spent most of the time with the Moose. If those are the guys being replaces then best to just leave the younger guys in the AHL.

 

[surixon]

But Kupari is in the PB most of the time and Axel spent most of the time with the Moose. If those are the guys being replaces then best to just leave the younger guys in the AHL.

He os going to have to beat out Namestnikov for 2C to make the team imo.

 

[Whileee]

If Jets had received any decent offers for Ehlers I'm pretty sure he would be gone by now. Will the offers get better mid-season? Has his health status impeded a trade?

I think that if Chevy doesn't get an offer he likes Ehlers will be an own rental and walk after the season.

Maybe good early season performance will encourage traders. Just one more reason to give him 1st line minutes. Pump up his value.

If the Jets are cooking and Ehlers is having a strong season then I could see the Jets trying to re-sign him during the season.

If the Jets are really struggling early on and Ehlers doesn't have a good productive role, I could see the Jets looking at a blockbuster mid-season trade to restructure the roster.

If the Jets are generally meandering and on the playoff bubble, I could see the Jets moving Ehlers and others at the TDL and hastening the youth movement.

Ultimately, I think the future directions will be strongly determined by how the Jets perform in the first 30-40 games.

 

[KingBogo]

He os going to have to beat out Namestnikov for 2C to make the team imo.

Why? That is a mighty big ask. Most centers spend at least some time on the wing in the NHL before moving back to center.

 

[surixon]

Why? That is a mighty big ask. Most centers spend at least some time on the wing in the NHL before moving back to center.

Who's spot at wing does he take in the top 9? The org seems to greatly overvalue Appelton. Or do you believe the org will be ok with him playing 8 to 10 minutes on the fourth?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Or it ends up just like Helly and Scheifele last season, where there was endless debates on trade value and what was offered or if they will be own rentals or be traded at the TDL. And it turned out the organization wanted to re-sign them and long term deals were in place by the start of the season.

In both cases it was not about whether or not the organization wanted to re-sign them. It was about whether or not the players wanted to sign here.

In Scheifele's, and especially Helle's cases the org needed to convince the players that the team would strive to win a Cup. The key appears to have been that each see the other signed. Thus the identical contracts signed at the same time.

In Ehlers' case it may not be nearly as simple to persuade him to sign here. Or the org may not be willing to step up with a contract he will accept. Or maybe everything is rainbows and unicorns and he signs as you suggest. But the similarity to last years situation is too superficial to use that as a guideline. It may or may not happen that way. We can only speculate about why he is not signed yet.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If the Jets are cooking and Ehlers is having a strong season then I could see the Jets trying to re-sign him during the season.

If the Jets are really struggling early on and Ehlers doesn't have a good productive role, I could see the Jets looking at a blockbuster mid-season trade to restructure the roster.

If the Jets are generally meandering and on the playoff bubble, I could see the Jets moving Ehlers and others at the TDL and hastening the youth movement.

Ultimately, I think the future directions will be strongly determined by how the Jets perform in the first 30-40 games.

A strong start to the season might help Ehlers decide that he wants to be here. I still think that is the key point. Maybe the coaching change influences him. Maybe his usage improves (from his POV). Maybe his health issues influence both parties one way or another.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm still not sure how much of the "slow play" of prospects is Chevy, and how much is on the coaches. I think it's also a function of where the Jets' management and coaches see the team and its contention window.

Recall that after the 2015 playoffs (Jets swept by Anaheim) the Jets realized that they didn't have enough talent in their core and needed to spend a couple of seasons transitioning to younger and more talented players. Over the next 3 seasons they traded Ladd and transitioned to younger players (Ehlers/Copp, then Morrissey/Hellebuyck, Connor/Laine, etc.). At the time, Chevy and Maurice were clear that they were transitioning to their youth because they realized the core wasn't good enough.

The big question right now is what Chevy and the coaches think about the potential of this roster. Do they think they can take another run in the next couple of seasons with this core, or do they think they need to add some youth and skill to get to the next level? I think they are much more confident in this core / roster than they were after 2015, which might mean that they slow-play Lambert and some of the youth a bit more than they did in the seasons after 2015.

I think this will be a pivotal season. If they have another really strong regular season, then I think they'll try again to make a run (which might mean rentals or "own rentals"). If they look like they aren't really competitive, then I could see them making fundamental changes mid-season or at the TDL to accelerate youth and maybe to change the roster structure (i.e. add a top RD and/or 2C). That might mean trading a core player (Ehlers?) or selling at the TDL (Iafallo, Pionk, Appleton, etc.) to get some draft pick capital for off-season restructuring.

This team finished in a tie for 4th overall in the league last season, winning 4th on tie-breakers. The team they tied with went on to win the Cup.

The only player they are missing from the roster that started that season is Dillon. I think he will be missed but he needed to go to open room for younger Dmen. With some prospects applying pressure from below, this year's team should be as good, or very nearly as good, as last year's.

But my optimism is tempered, no obliterated, by the memory of yet another no-show in the PO. Maybe they really were frauds in the regular season. I guess we'll find out since they are clearly running it back.

I hope they are for real and PO'ed at getting hammered as soon as the real season starts. This could be either a very good season or the last gasp before real change starts.

 

[DRW204]

Chevy practically says that every season so for me that is either just motivation for young players or the coach/GM are not on the same page. If these guys have good camps and still don't make the team that would lead me to believe that the words are just that as Scott Arniel is not the type of coach who can override the GM at this stage of his career.

So much this. Ppl put way to much stock into sometimes off-the hip comments and expect to hold for an entire year, as if shit doesn't change. Then sometimes even completely ignoring transactions or transaction attempts.

 

[Whileee]

This team finished in a tie for 4th overall in the league last season, winning 4th on tie-breakers. The team they tied with went on to win the Cup.

The only player they are missing from the roster that started that season is Dillon. I think he will be missed but he needed to go to open room for younger Dmen. With some prospects applying pressure from below, this year's team should be as good, or very nearly as good, as last year's.

But my optimism is tempered, no obliterated, by the memory of yet another no-show in the PO. Maybe they really were frauds in the regular season. I guess we'll find out since they are clearly running it back.

I hope they are for real and PO'ed at getting hammered as soon as the real season starts. This could be either a very good season or the last gasp before real change starts.

I think the Jets playoff performance vs. the Avs was also related to some self-inflicted problems. First, by replacing Namestnikov and Perfetti in the top 9 with Monahan and Toffoli they became a lot slower. They had already lost pace of play by reuniting Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi. So they went from a fast, pressure team to a slow cycling team. Avs just turned it into a track meet with efficient retrievals, fast transition, and activating their D. The Jets forwards had no answer.

Second, they inexplicably broke up a very effective and mobile D pair in Samberg-Schmidt and inserted Stanley. Stanley can play okay in some situations, but he was outmatched in speed and took a couple of bad penalties at crucial times. By the time Bowness swapped him out, the series had turned.

I still think the Avs were a better team and would have been a first-round challenge for any team. They tired in round 2 by using McK and Makar so much, and losing Nikishkin hurt them.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think the Jets playoff performance vs. the Avs was also related to some self-inflicted problems. First, by replacing Namestnikov and Perfetti in the top 9 with Monahan and Toffoli they became a lot slower. They had already lost pace of play by reuniting Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi. So they went from a fast, pressure team to a slow cycling team. Avs just turned it into a track meet with efficient retrievals, fast transition, and activating their D. The Jets forwards had no answer.

Second, they inexplicably broke up a very effective and mobile D pair in Samberg-Schmidt and inserted Stanley. Stanley can play okay in some situations, but he was outmatched in speed and took a couple of bad penalties at crucial times. By the time Bowness swapped him out, the series had turned.

I still think the Avs were a better team and would have been a first-round challenge for any team. They tired in round 2 by using McK and Makar so much, and losing Nikishkin hurt them.

It is understandable why Jets picked up Mono and Toffoli and I was in favour at the time, at least with Mono. But hindsight reveals what poor decisions they were. The pros should be making better decisions than us, at least most of the time.

It is not reassuring that Chevy tried to retain Monahan and to sign Henrique. Lets hope that he doesn't repeat the mistake.

 

[DRW204]

I think the Jets playoff performance vs. the Avs was also related to some self-inflicted problems. First, by replacing Namestnikov and Perfetti in the top 9 with Monahan and Toffoli they became a lot slower. They had already lost pace of play by reuniting Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi. So they went from a fast, pressure team to a slow cycling team. Avs just turned it into a track meet with efficient retrievals, fast transition, and activating their D. The Jets forwards had no answer.

Second, they inexplicably broke up a very effective and mobile D pair in Samberg-Schmidt and inserted Stanley. Stanley can play okay in some situations, but he was outmatched in speed and took a couple of bad penalties at crucial times. By the time Bowness swapped him out, the series had turned.

I still think the Avs were a better team and would have been a first-round challenge for any team. They tired in round 2 by using McK and Makar so much, and losing Nikishkin hurt them.

Since you love giving out reminders. Remind us the score and lineups of the Jets vs Avs game a week before the playoffs? They played Perfetti as well and nothing changed and he In fact he rated the worst Jets Fwd analytically that game.

 

[Bob E]

After hearing Scheifele’s interview today I think Lambert would be a serious candidate to start the season with the Jets. If he struggles early, then he’s back to the Moose. The players seem to be anticipating young guys stepping in, if they are ready.

Did Chevy try to get veteran FAs to sign to fill a few spots? Yes. But the org and players seem to be embracing plan B, having the kids come in to fill spots.

Will be an interesting preseason.

And is it just me or does Heinola look like he’s aged 5 years this offseason?

 

[Buffdog]

And is it just me or does Heinola look like he’s aged 5 years this offseason?

Yes, he looks 19 now lol

 

[LowLefty]

I think the Jets playoff performance vs. the Avs was also related to some self-inflicted problems. First, by replacing Namestnikov and Perfetti in the top 9 with Monahan and Toffoli they became a lot slower. They had already lost pace of play by reuniting Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi. So they went from a fast, pressure team to a slow cycling team. Avs just turned it into a track meet with efficient retrievals, fast transition, and activating their D. The Jets forwards had no answer.

Second, they inexplicably broke up a very effective and mobile D pair in Samberg-Schmidt and inserted Stanley. Stanley can play okay in some situations, but he was outmatched in speed and took a couple of bad penalties at crucial times. By the time Bowness swapped him out, the series had turned.

I still think the Avs were a better team and would have been a first-round challenge for any team. They tired in round 2 by using McK and Makar so much, and losing Nikishkin hurt them.

We were outmatched in all areas in that series - I see no point in picking a couple of areas when we were completely outskilled and out competed in that series - it was happening all over the place.

I agree that adding the two slow dudes to the roster didn't help - but it wasn't the major issue. By playing Perfetti and Names, how much difference in speed would be have gained against a really fast team like the Aves? Honestly, it wouldn't have mattered.
And calling out Stan as the weakness on our D is just funny IMO - our d was crushed up and down the pairings.

As for the major issue? We didn't compete at the level the Aves did - or at least try to. I agree that it was "deer in the headlights" out there - call out coaching if we really need to lay blame. Because we did not bring the level of compete needed to have a chance against the Aves.

And then there was Helle - who we count on all season to be the difference maker - and then he wasn't.

 

[KingBogo]

After hearing Scheifele’s interview today I think Lambert would be a serious candidate to start the season with the Jets. If he struggles early, then he’s back to the Moose. The players seem to be anticipating young guys stepping in, if they are ready.

Did Chevy try to get veteran FAs to sign to fill a few spots? Yes. But the org and players seem to be embracing plan B, having the kids come in to fill spots.

Will be an interesting preseason.

And is it just me or does Heinola look like he’s aged 5 years this offseason?

Where was Scheifele interviewed and are you able to share basic premise?

 

[DRW204]

But Kupari is in the PB most of the time and Axel spent most of the time with the Moose. If those are the guys being replaces then best to just leave the younger guys in the AHL.

IIRC there was a comment about perfetti recently by the coach which I got the impression was "top 6 or bust" for Perfetti. I think you can say similar narrative for any 1st round caliber prospect on this team.

There's no top 6 wing spot available. Obviously no top line C spot available, and it seems like the early narrative is that it's Names' spot to lose at 2C.

So you're left with a 4th line that barely plays. Or playing with Lowry who IMO I don't think is a great match of skillset for those type of young players.

Just to go a bit further on this:
I'm old enough to remember Kristian Vesalainen being rated #1 prospect according to HF prospect experts on here going into 2019. Lots of hype on him at the time.

Gets into the lineup in 2021 as probably many were clamoring for, and is a tire fire next to Lowry.

A huge mismatch IMO of skills and player strengths or weaknesses. For 1st round caliber prospect of strong offensive skills and whatnot honestly think the third line with Lowry is not a good fit, which is why that it's top 6 or nothing for those kind of players.

 

[surixon]

Where was Scheifele interviewed and are you able to share basic premise?

The illegal curve has it in their informal skate interview post.

 

[KingBogo]

Who's spot at wing does he take in the top 9? The org seems to greatly overvalue Appelton. Or do you believe the org will be ok with him playing 8 to 10 minutes on the fourth?

We will see what Arniel does but giving Lambert some middle 6 opportunities on wing would be a good way to ease him into the lineup.