Oh yeah, it's always been a pretty rough guesstimate and heavily dependent on the sample size of players going straight from one league into the NHL.
Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season
- Thread starter GJF
- Start date
I'm just not sure where it's coming from. The UFA crop is pretty mid and our biggest weakness is the right side where nearly every team has a weakness there and those that don't aren't looking to move anyone.
I think Ehlers return will be underwhelming. He's not a big sexy C like Dubois.
Blue Shakehead
because lol Jets
This is why I give Bones more rope than most. Even with Josh Morrissey, who is a top 5 defenseman in the league right now imo- our defense roster is bottom 5 in the NHL.
There have been several years where Connor Hellebuyck completely covered up for the shambolic defense. But this wasn't one of them. Helle was great, but the team defense was the best its been in the 2.0 era.
Thats not to excuse his basically fireable handling of the 2024 playoffs.
Oh it 100% will be but I forsee Ehlers not resigning after his contract is up. So I'd rather we make a move and try and get some picks and prospects now. Sooner the better.
He's also likely going to want a decent raise and I don't think we should do it.
Blue Shakehead
because lol Jets
If there is one benefit to stapling Ehlers to slow 2nd line centers over his entire career, it should be that we get to underpay him if he wants to extend. He's a 80 point talent but a career 60 point player.
On the other hand, by underplaying him, we have also diminished his trade value.
I want to keep Ehlers, because the odds of any of our current prospects replacing him are near zero. And on the off-chance Lambo turns into Ehlers, the worst problem we will have is having too many elite wingers and having to trade one.
I'd put the Jets D at below average but not bottom 5. Morrissey is elite and DeMelo's a very good partner for him. Pionk is intermittently total garbage, but Dillon is an okay 2nd pairing guy. Samberg-Schmidt are fine for a 3rd pair.
MelikeJets
Registered User
I'm not even really sure Ehlers is that. His style of play is eye popping but he suffers from over thinking and generally looks like he is doing a lot more than he actually is.
You look at his advanced stats and say wow this guy should be doing so much but really he's just great at moving through zones. His shot is quick but incredibly innacurate and he often misses the forest for the tree's. Skating circles around the zone looks fun, but unlike MacK and McDavid he never actually does anything with it.
If we are trading Ehlers, I want a player, not picks.
We are going to need to see some things to push this forward imo.
We need some youth to take a step up and Carry more of the load (This also falls on whoever is coaching us to give them more responsibility as well):
Perfetti showed signs of being able to carry the second line this past year. After another offseason of training I think he's poised to drive it full time. We will need that from him as imo Fly is gone this summer. If the org wants him at C then give him his homework right now and allow him to train for it all Summer.
We need Snerg to also take a step forward. We need him to show he can be an everyday second pairing shut down dmen. He showed some signs of it but has been less then steller once the playoffs come along. Big year for him next year, is he a legit top 4 guy on a good team or is he just a very good third pairing dmen.
Heinola needs his chance. He's baked enough in the minors and he has the tools this d is really lacking in terms of retrieval and puck movement. We need to see if he can translate and be a plus player for us.
I think Lambert may also be ready to be sheltered by a vet ala Cole in his rookie year. I'd put him with Mark on RW to start as Mark was good for Perfetti last year and imo Mark needs a fast play driver through the nz to get the most out of him. It also takes the pressure off of Brad to need to drive the offense while he adjusts.
Personnale:
We need to fundamentally rebuild our dcore as it's not good enough. We can't keep liabilities like Pionk and overplay them. I'd be moving Ehlers, next year's 1st, Stanley and a prospect for a top pairing RD. NYI are desperate for scoring, maybe we can get Poluck or Pelech for a package around fly.
I also think we need to go for a gritty LW that plays both ways for the top line to add some dimension. Not sure who that would be atm.
Coaching:
The axe should fall on Lauer and a comprehensive search needs to go on for a PP coach. We are going to need plus special teams to do any damage moving forward and he has proven not capable. Im willing to give Arniel a mulligan on the PK as last year and historically it has been good under him.
I am not sure if they move on from Bones or not but if they don't he is going to have to modify his schemes and deployment a bit.
My lineup to start:
Xxx Scheifele Lambert
Connor Perfetti Vilardi
Nino Lowry Appelton
Barron Namestnikov Iafallo
JoMo yyyyy
Snerg zzzz
Heinola DeMelo
Schmidt
Helle
B/U
We need some youth to take a step up and Carry more of the load (This also falls on whoever is coaching us to give them more responsibility as well):
Perfetti showed signs of being able to carry the second line this past year. After another offseason of training I think he's poised to drive it full time. We will need that from him as imo Fly is gone this summer. If the org wants him at C then give him his homework right now and allow him to train for it all Summer.
We need Snerg to also take a step forward. We need him to show he can be an everyday second pairing shut down dmen. He showed some signs of it but has been less then steller once the playoffs come along. Big year for him next year, is he a legit top 4 guy on a good team or is he just a very good third pairing dmen.
Heinola needs his chance. He's baked enough in the minors and he has the tools this d is really lacking in terms of retrieval and puck movement. We need to see if he can translate and be a plus player for us.
I think Lambert may also be ready to be sheltered by a vet ala Cole in his rookie year. I'd put him with Mark on RW to start as Mark was good for Perfetti last year and imo Mark needs a fast play driver through the nz to get the most out of him. It also takes the pressure off of Brad to need to drive the offense while he adjusts.
Personnale:
We need to fundamentally rebuild our dcore as it's not good enough. We can't keep liabilities like Pionk and overplay them. I'd be moving Ehlers, next year's 1st, Stanley and a prospect for a top pairing RD. NYI are desperate for scoring, maybe we can get Poluck or Pelech for a package around fly.
I also think we need to go for a gritty LW that plays both ways for the top line to add some dimension. Not sure who that would be atm.
Coaching:
The axe should fall on Lauer and a comprehensive search needs to go on for a PP coach. We are going to need plus special teams to do any damage moving forward and he has proven not capable. Im willing to give Arniel a mulligan on the PK as last year and historically it has been good under him.
I am not sure if they move on from Bones or not but if they don't he is going to have to modify his schemes and deployment a bit.
My lineup to start:
Xxx Scheifele Lambert
Connor Perfetti Vilardi
Nino Lowry Appelton
Barron Namestnikov Iafallo
JoMo yyyyy
Snerg zzzz
Heinola DeMelo
Schmidt
Helle
B/U
Wouldn’t McGroarty have been a nice add to the top 6 for next year. Oh well. Maybe in spring 2025.
Definitely could have been, but I think it might be smart to add one guy at a time. Cole is integrated and doesn't need to be carried by a vet so now is a good time to add Lambert. By the following year you shouldn't have to shelter Brad as much and can insulate McGroarty while he adapts.
I agree with all of this. But I'm not sure that the Isles will move off the anchors on their 2nd pairing in order to get the scoring. Plus both Pulock and Pelech have full NTC's which eventually become 16 team NTC's down the line, which basically means unless they want to come to Winnipeg, they aren't going to be coming here. I think they like playing with each other on the Island and probably aren't all that willing to move, nor do I think the Isles are keen on moving them to fix their holes.
I think both Chibrikov and Lambert could get long looks in camp. Perfetti will be expected to claim a spot and Heinola should be given every single opportunity to earn a spot and if he does not then it's time to make a change of scenery trade with another tweener.
If Chychrun is available from Ottawa at the deadline we could maybe target him. Not sure what it would cost but I'd imagine Ottawa would like to make some kind of turnaround. Perhaps we could try and get him this offseason.
gojetsgo
Registered User
- Nov 1, 2015
- 9,948
- 27,954
cbcwpg
Registered User
If Brind'Amour becomes available, TNSE should have been on the phone last week.
WolfHouse
Registered User
- Oct 4, 2020
- 9,423
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There has to be something more to the connor-scheif pairing and pionks usage... it doesn't make any sense that coaches keep hammering a square peg into a round hole - until that's solved this team will collapse in the postseason
Might as well trade ehlers if scheifele doesn't want him on his line and coaches still don't trust him... try to get something for iafallo
Just buy out pionk - accept we lost the trouba trade
Team needs to finally maximize the talent Chevy drafts and spread out our scoring and go with a youth movement
Nino-scheif-vilardi
Connor-gus-perfetti
Ajf-lowry-apples
Names-lambert-chib
Jomo-demelo
Samberg-heinola
Capo-schmidt
Not very scary but maybe the ehlers return beefs things up
I don't see a rhd out there that the Jets will be able to compete to sign... Miller would have been a good option but I wouldn't stay here if I was him
Might as well trade ehlers if scheifele doesn't want him on his line and coaches still don't trust him... try to get something for iafallo
Just buy out pionk - accept we lost the trouba trade
Team needs to finally maximize the talent Chevy drafts and spread out our scoring and go with a youth movement
Nino-scheif-vilardi
Connor-gus-perfetti
Ajf-lowry-apples
Names-lambert-chib
Jomo-demelo
Samberg-heinola
Capo-schmidt
Not very scary but maybe the ehlers return beefs things up
I don't see a rhd out there that the Jets will be able to compete to sign... Miller would have been a good option but I wouldn't stay here if I was him
Huffer
Registered User
- Jul 16, 2010
- 16,726
- 6,438
I think inquiring about a guy like Pulock isn't a bad idea, but I think some Jets fans might want to read some of the comments from Islander fans who watch their team more closely. Not saying everything they say is gospel, or that it reflects their management or value in the league, but there is a stark difference to their comments and some on here.
Some examples:
"Let's be honest...The best hockey is behind Palmieri, Pageau, Lee, Pelech, Pulock, and probably Nelson. That's very bad when those are the guys who should be making up your top forwards and defense pairs. Other than Nelson it will be hard to trade any of those players and get anything of value...At a time when the Isles are despreate to get younger, faster, and more skilled."
"I don't know about Pelech and Pulock. They seem more like the type that would need to be swapped in a change of scenery scenario because there can't be any salary retention with them since their deals are too long."
"Why the heck would the Leafs trade Nylander, whom they just signed to a mega deal) for Pelech or Pulock?? The Islanders are dealing from a position of weakness in all these matters and probably the only players they can get their hands on are players on similarly or even worse deals, think Huberdeau or Kotkaniemi."
"I would rather move Pelech but I am trying to be realistic in the sense that you won't be getting a game breaking talent for Pelech. Pulock is solid but he is not a game breaking talent. Even in the "dream" scenario I outlined it still needs the isles to make low cost high upside pickups."
"How in the world are you trading a fading Pelech, and his 5.75M cap hit through 2029, for anything of value - Much less anything near the talent of Ehlers?
*You're not. We're stuck with Pelech."
"Totally agree on discussion.
My take on Pelech/Pulock is less about the players (although Pulock has become incredibly average and Pelech is like half the player he used to be), and more about their contracts. Both are around 6M a year until 2029 and 2030 respectively. That's horrible for trade value and why I think they don't have any.
I mean if you're the Islanders and you even had 20+ million in cap space, why would you use up 6M of it for the next 6 years on an average defenseman who, in both cases, the skills will only erode during the remainder of the contracts?
You wouldn't...And that's the point as all teams will think this way.
When you can find someone like Mike Reilly off the scrap heap for nothing - Both in terms of assets given up and cap space taken up, then there's no way Pelech and Pulock have value."
"It is quite hard to gauge Pulock and Pelechs trade value due to their deals. Six more years is a long, long time, yet at the same time they'd easily get that if they were UFAs this offseason. I believe they can both be traded but it would be hugely complicated deals with lots of moving parts, unless the Isles are taking a similar contracts back straight up.
But, the problem with all the extensions Lou signed is not just term itself but the NMCs and NTCs that come with them. Unless they are going to a contender, why would these players even consider going elsewhere?"
"Rielly looks great but he is also getting much easier minutes. Pulock is averaging 25 minutes per game. Pelech 22 minutes. Rielly is not even at 19 minutes per game. If Mike Rielly was a top four defenseman he would not have ever been placed on waivers.
Pulock is a step above Pelech and three steps about Rielly to me.
Oh I agree...And if Pulock only had 2 years left on his deal as opposed to 6 then I'd agree he'd have some decent trade value.
Alas he is signed until 2030 (with an NTC that kicks in the last 3 years of a deal meaning any acquiring team will have even a harder time dumping his contract if his play falls off later), so when you take into account Pulock's financial/contract situation that really mitigates any real value he has.
And Pelech's situation is even worse as his 16-team NTC kicks in July 1, 2025 (when he still has 4 years left on his deal).
We're all out in the cheap seats proposing this move or that move that the Isles should do, but the reality of the situation is that Lou has boxed this team in a corner today and it's going to take literal years to undo the damage he's done."
"Pelech's contract is unfortunately quite underwater right now and NYI shouldn't be dealing draft picks (which would surely need to be a 1st rounder at least) to dump Pelech. It's part of why retooling this team is going to be so difficult for a while.
Best thing NYI can hope for is that Roy is able to figure out why he's underperforming. If it's physical, how can we recover to get back where he was a few years ago. If it's mental, then that's easier and the coaching staff can work on that. He's still only 29, so should have 3-5 more full prime years left. Not too long ago he was one of the top shut down d-men in the entire league. Too early to say he's washed up based on a couple of down years."
Some examples:
"Let's be honest...The best hockey is behind Palmieri, Pageau, Lee, Pelech, Pulock, and probably Nelson. That's very bad when those are the guys who should be making up your top forwards and defense pairs. Other than Nelson it will be hard to trade any of those players and get anything of value...At a time when the Isles are despreate to get younger, faster, and more skilled."
"I don't know about Pelech and Pulock. They seem more like the type that would need to be swapped in a change of scenery scenario because there can't be any salary retention with them since their deals are too long."
"Why the heck would the Leafs trade Nylander, whom they just signed to a mega deal) for Pelech or Pulock?? The Islanders are dealing from a position of weakness in all these matters and probably the only players they can get their hands on are players on similarly or even worse deals, think Huberdeau or Kotkaniemi."
"I would rather move Pelech but I am trying to be realistic in the sense that you won't be getting a game breaking talent for Pelech. Pulock is solid but he is not a game breaking talent. Even in the "dream" scenario I outlined it still needs the isles to make low cost high upside pickups."
"How in the world are you trading a fading Pelech, and his 5.75M cap hit through 2029, for anything of value - Much less anything near the talent of Ehlers?
*You're not. We're stuck with Pelech."
"Totally agree on discussion.
My take on Pelech/Pulock is less about the players (although Pulock has become incredibly average and Pelech is like half the player he used to be), and more about their contracts. Both are around 6M a year until 2029 and 2030 respectively. That's horrible for trade value and why I think they don't have any.
I mean if you're the Islanders and you even had 20+ million in cap space, why would you use up 6M of it for the next 6 years on an average defenseman who, in both cases, the skills will only erode during the remainder of the contracts?
You wouldn't...And that's the point as all teams will think this way.
When you can find someone like Mike Reilly off the scrap heap for nothing - Both in terms of assets given up and cap space taken up, then there's no way Pelech and Pulock have value."
"It is quite hard to gauge Pulock and Pelechs trade value due to their deals. Six more years is a long, long time, yet at the same time they'd easily get that if they were UFAs this offseason. I believe they can both be traded but it would be hugely complicated deals with lots of moving parts, unless the Isles are taking a similar contracts back straight up.
But, the problem with all the extensions Lou signed is not just term itself but the NMCs and NTCs that come with them. Unless they are going to a contender, why would these players even consider going elsewhere?"
"Rielly looks great but he is also getting much easier minutes. Pulock is averaging 25 minutes per game. Pelech 22 minutes. Rielly is not even at 19 minutes per game. If Mike Rielly was a top four defenseman he would not have ever been placed on waivers.
Pulock is a step above Pelech and three steps about Rielly to me.
Oh I agree...And if Pulock only had 2 years left on his deal as opposed to 6 then I'd agree he'd have some decent trade value.
Alas he is signed until 2030 (with an NTC that kicks in the last 3 years of a deal meaning any acquiring team will have even a harder time dumping his contract if his play falls off later), so when you take into account Pulock's financial/contract situation that really mitigates any real value he has.
And Pelech's situation is even worse as his 16-team NTC kicks in July 1, 2025 (when he still has 4 years left on his deal).
We're all out in the cheap seats proposing this move or that move that the Isles should do, but the reality of the situation is that Lou has boxed this team in a corner today and it's going to take literal years to undo the damage he's done."
"Pelech's contract is unfortunately quite underwater right now and NYI shouldn't be dealing draft picks (which would surely need to be a 1st rounder at least) to dump Pelech. It's part of why retooling this team is going to be so difficult for a while.
Best thing NYI can hope for is that Roy is able to figure out why he's underperforming. If it's physical, how can we recover to get back where he was a few years ago. If it's mental, then that's easier and the coaching staff can work on that. He's still only 29, so should have 3-5 more full prime years left. Not too long ago he was one of the top shut down d-men in the entire league. Too early to say he's washed up based on a couple of down years."
Maukkis
EZ4ENCE
- Mar 16, 2016
- 10,625
- 7,417
Among all Jets' skaters in the last three years at 5v5 (500+ minutes), Ehlers is...
- 1st in CF%
- 1st SF%
- 2nd in GF/60 (behind Vilardi)
- 1st in GF% (62.07%!!!)
- 1st in xGF/60
- 3rd in xGF% (behind Nino and Lowry)
- 2nd in SCF% (behind Nino)
- 4th in high danger chances/60 (behind PLD + a collection of bottom sixers)
- 7th in high danger chances % (again, behind PLD + a collection of bottom sixers)
He's not doing much with the puck, but somehow we keep scoring a lot more with him on the ice than without him. We shoot the puck more, we get more high danger chances. For those who prefer actual goals over possession numbers, Ehlers ranks 11th in GF% and 28th in goals for per 60 league-wide. The other team gets less of them than us on Nik's watch. Is that nothing?
Replacing Ehlers will barely be a question of "who can score as much as him". Instead, you'd have to find someone to replace that ability to tilt the ice, which nobody else on this team possesses. And if you don't, then what?
But again it all falls apart time and time and time and time and time again in the playoffs.
But sure lets run it back again, maybe he figures it out next time. Why do we insist on beating our heads against a wall and expecting it to not hurt? We are no different than the Leafs at this point.
But look at these numbers in the regular season!!!
Okay great now do it when it actually matters.
I think this post probably highlights why Pionk is probably more valuable than he looks on the outside. RHD are f***ing hard to come by, especially RHD that aren't completely lost in their own zone. And while Pionk certainly struggles, it's going to be hard to even replace what he is doing.
The real trouble is we all know what a really competent group of defencemen looks like because we had it for a short period of time. We have been chasing that high for 6 seasons now. But it's such a rarity to assemble a group like that, and is generally done through the draft, that it's unlikely we see it again for some time.
MardyBum
Registered User
The Jets fall apart time and time again in the playoffs. 5+ years since you can argue they outplayed their opponent in a series. But you focus on Ehlers because you have a narrattive you want to focus on after THEY ALL SUCKED. Your favourite player? They SUCKED. You're posting like a guy who didn't watch PLD and Wheeler(the cancers) leave and NOTHING CHANGE :LAUGH:.
We need less speed says Dax! More Monahan and Toffoli! *trade Ehlers* is a move, not a solution. And its a strange move, but the Jets love those
Duke749
Savannah Ghost Pirates
Don't put words in my mouth because what I'm saying is what you don't want to hear. Point to the post where I said I want Monahan and Toffoli. f*** off with that bullshit.
Huffer
Registered User
- Jul 16, 2010
- 16,726
- 6,438
Agree, and it could be even for a guy like Pulock that his value in the league is more than it should be due to the scarcity of the position.
I was mainly trying to say that we can sometimes have a "grass is greener" mentality here in regards to trades and values, and a guy like Pulock has things like a long term deal that he is not currently outplaying, and a NTC that could affect his value.
I'm also starting to wonder in some sort of scenario where the org does decide to move off from Pionk next year (not saying they will), and we can also re-sign Demelo, is there a better opportunity to find an available LHD that is capable to play in the top 4 that can play on his offside, opposed to trying to find an available RHD? It's not ideal, but from a purely talent upgrade perspective I wonder about it.
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