Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season

[kanadalainen]

I don't even care at this point if Chibrikov is "ready", anything is better than the heartless cowards on this team who fold every post season without even putting up a fight.

I just want to see some change. But Apples out is an extremely minor change, there needs to be much bigger change than that.

I'd love to see Helle gone, wish he was traded last off-season. We have a large enough sample size to say with great confidence that he is one of those players who does not show up for high pressure games. We will never get anywhere with him, so I already know what the next seven years will bring.

BUT ... since that isn't happening, at least take a chainsaw to the rest of this roster. I'd keep Scheifele, Morrisey, and Lowry and literally get rid of everyone else to remove the stench of the past few seasons and do a major re-set. I know lots of people love Ehlers, but I'd trade him not because anything against him but because MASSIVE changes are needed not this BS nibbling around the edges we get every off-season.

Pionk is the biggest recipient of the chainsaw potential in my books. I've seen enough. And (another minor tweak) try to hang onto Miller.. he was decent in his one gifted game (forced by injuries and a certain Tree like sod).

Hopefully Chevy can get that bastard started.

 

[cbcwpg]

The problem is the NHL is two separate distinctive seasons, and to succeed to the fullest in each requires two different types of teams, or if you are lucky, a team built that can succeed in both.

The Jets are built for succeeding in the regular season, but not the playoffs. Chevy needs to build a team that succeed in the playoffs, but is still good enough during the 82 game play-in tournament , to make the playoffs.

The problem , as I see it, with the Jets is TNSE has mandated to Chevy that their only goal is making the playoffs. They have so much as said this themselves, and they measure success just on that one goal. Making the playoffs is all they care about. Succeeding in the playoffs is just a lucky coincidence.

 

[Daximus]

#1: over the last three seasons, Scheifele and Connor without Ehlers have consistently been out-everything'd at 5v5, including actual goals, scoring chances, xG and, most importantly, goaltending.
#2: Scheifele and Connor with Ehlers outscore their opponents and win the xG battle. The sample size is somewhat limited, but goaltending has also been significantly better with all three on the ice.
#3: Ehlers without Scheifele and Connor dominates the opposition in all the relevant metrics.
#4: Ehlers and Scheifele without Connor... need I say anything about this combo?

I'm not saying that all our woes are going to be fixed by hockey trades, but if we're going to make one to get the top 6 going, it just has to be Connor going out of the door. It's not even only about the on-ice results, but he'd also get us much more in a trade with an extra year on his contract.

Now do the same thing but in the playoffs. Connor has almost as many goals in the abomination of a playoffs as Ehlers has in his entire playoff career. One certainly steps up more than the other.

 

[jungles]

Now do the same thing but in the playoffs. Connor has almost as many goals in the abomination of a playoffs as Ehlers has in his entire playoff career. One certainly steps up more than the other.

Ehlers really was a mess. Not just ineffective but at times a complete gong show of swimming on the ice, flailing limbs and bad decisions.

 

[Daximus]

Ehlers really was a mess. Not just ineffective but at times a complete gong show of swimming on the ice, flailing limbs and bad decisions.

Yeah he just tries to do way to much and accomplishes very little. I have no doubts that we will trade him away and he could find playoffs success elsewhere but he is in the same boat as Marner although less effective on the scoreboard overall. The team needs a shakeup and hes the one guy that just never shows up when the cards are on the table.

 

[Maukkis]

Now do the same thing but in the playoffs. Connor has almost as many goals in the abomination of a playoffs as Ehlers has in his entire playoff career. One certainly steps up more than the other.

Over the sample size of... *reads notes*... six minutes and twenty-one seconds, 81-55-27 has been outstanding in the last three playoffs.

The best way to f*** up an NHL team is to overreact to playoff results. This isn't to say that Ehlers was some magical beast this time around, but trading him would literally not solve a single one of our problems. We struggled with breakouts, lacked footspeed, and couldn't get offense from the top 6 - why do we consider dealing our best playmaker, who also happens to be the fastest skater and a proven generator of chances and offense?

 

[Daximus]

Over the sample size of... *reads notes*... six minutes and twenty-one seconds, 81-55-27 has been outstanding in the last three playoffs.

The best way to f*** up an NHL team is to overreact to playoff results. This isn't to say that Ehlers was some magical beast this time around, but trading him would literally not solve a single one of our problems. We struggled with breakouts, lacked footspeed, and couldn't get offense from the top 6 - why do we consider dealing our best playmaker, who also happens to be the fastest skater and a proven generator of chances and offense?

Because he only does it in the regular season. He's our Marner but somehow hes worse.

 

[rkp]

PLease.....no more "all in trades..." at the TDL unless they need to get rid of someone....

 

[DRW204]

Ehlers really was a mess. Not just ineffective but at times a complete gong show of swimming on the ice, flailing limbs and bad decisions.

i don't think he was a huge liability out there on the defensive side. 3 GA this series on ~3xGA w/ him on the ice, that's not terrible vs rest of the team.

however offensively he didn't have much going. another PO series and another huge under-performance. Monahan as well did nothing.

since 17-18: of players with regular season PPG of 0.7 or higher - Ehlers has the lowest PO PPG, and the 2nd lowest difference b/w RS and POs. he is a farcry from his regular-season proficiency.

 

[Channelcat]

PLease.....no more "all in trades..." at the TDL unless they need to get rid of someone....

In my opinion, it was a worthwhile gamble. It's not like we were sacrificing Celebrini.

 

[ERYX]

Over the sample size of... *reads notes*... six minutes and twenty-one seconds, 81-55-27 has been outstanding in the last three playoffs.

The best way to f*** up an NHL team is to overreact to playoff results. This isn't to say that Ehlers was some magical beast this time around, but trading him would literally not solve a single one of our problems. We struggled with breakouts, lacked footspeed, and couldn't get offense from the top 6 - why do we consider dealing our best playmaker, who also happens to be the fastest skater and a proven generator of chances and offense?

Agreed BUT ... we're not talking about (over)reacting to one bad playoff result. We're talking about six years consecutive of the same crap. It's time to overreact, because not reacting at all has not helped anything.

 

[10Ducky10]

KC and Lucius for Brady Tkachuk
Ehlers and Stanley for Konecny

Tkachuk Scheif Volare
Perfetti Monahan Konecny
Nino Names Lambert
Barron Lowry Apples

JMo Pesce
Ville DeMelo
Samberg Miller

Helle ?

 

[jungles]

Konecny

Drink!

 

[Daximus]

KC and Lucius for Brady Tkachuk
Ehlers and Stanley for Konecny

Tkachuk Scheif Volare
Perfetti Monahan Konecny
Nino Names Lambert
Barron Lowry Apples

JMo Pesce
Ville DeMelo
Samberg Miller

Helle ?

I don't think Ottawa trades their captain and heart of their team for anything short of a massive overpay and I don't think we have the pieces that will even make them answer the phone.

 

[JetsUK]

Bones needs to go.

You thank him for his work on instilling defensive commitment -- in the regular season -- and team camaraderie, and on bringing the team a trophy.

And then you look at the perplexing decisions of this series alone, including looking at a game through 2 periods in which the Jets were at least playing as well as the Avs, and arguably controlling play despite being down a goal --

And decides on the basis of "not liking" what he sees, to go back to the crap he's run thus far, minus Miller and Perfetti, and hands the game and series to the Avs.

Thank him, and move on.

 

[Buffdog]

2C and RHD are shaping up to be long term issues. I think it's time to look at Lambert and Solo in those roles as rookies

I'm not sure how the SEL compares to the AHL in terms of quality, but solomansson showed extremely well there vs grown men

I do have some reservations about rushing Lambert after his history of playing at levels before he might have been 100% ready

 

[Bigfish]

For those expecting big changes this offseason i think you are going to be disappointed. After all, this is the Jets you are talking about. I believe the Jets brass view this season as a huge success. After watching Boneheads post game interview I have no doubt that he will be back. Bones return will lead Cole Perfetti to ask for a trade and I don't blame him. Bones completely f***ed Cole over this year. Ehlers, who is no doubt tired of Bones different standards for different players, will not sign an extension and will be traded this offseason.

 

[JetsUK]

2C and RHD are shaping up to be long term issues. I think it's time to look at Lambert and Solo in those roles as rookies

I'm not sure how the SEL compares to the AHL in terms of quality, but solomansson showed extremely well there vs grown men

I do have some reservations about rushing Lambert after his history of playing at levels before he might have been 100% ready

I reckon Salmo is a decent bet for the NHL; less sure about Lambert, much as I like and rate him. I don't think the team can afford to park a talent like Salmo for 2-4 years in the A.

IIRC the SEL has a good NHL equivalency. Not sure how current this is but can certainly see Sal doing just fine on a sheltered 3rd pairing. Can also see Heinola doing just fine with Samberg as he learns the NHL game.

Pionk can no longer play 17-22 mins all-situations anymore. I thought he was healthily worse than Schmidt for the season and playoffs.

This confirms what we know about European hockey – Russia has produced the bestplayers, while the Czechs, Swedes and Finns have high-quality leagues that allow theirbest professionals to step directly into the NHL. Germany and Switzerland are clearlywell below the level of the six-best countries in the world. The World Championshipsmake it clear that an AHL All-Star team is nearly as good as the Swiss or GermanNational teams, and, barring a miracle, better than an NCAA All-Star team

EDIT: Looks like the above is way out of date. Soz!

http://hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/League_Equivalencies.pdf

 

[Gm0ney]

I wonder if we can move Ehlers at the draft and maybe recoup some draft capital we moved out for this year and save $6m heading into next season there.

With Lambert and Chibrikov likely getting solid looks next year and Perfetti possibly taking a step forward moving a winger who chronically under preforms in the playoffs for a pick and prospect doesn't seem all that bad.

San Jose might be looking for someone with a vet presence to help lift the team out of the funk. They have 14th OA so possible target there. Possible chance Ehlers didn't put them on his 10 team NTC in July.



It's to late now. With low attendance figures there is zero chance they ever do this now. The only time was during the honeymoon period and they dragged their heels. Only shot this ever happens is if we just happen to be legitimately bad.

Maybe Chevy can get our 1st and Kovacevic back from Montreal for Ehlers. They'd probably throw in Dvorak and Gallagher too!

 

[Gm0ney]

I reckon Salmo is a decent bet for the NHL; less sure about Lambert, much as I like and rate him. I don't think the team can afford to park a talent like Salmo for 2-4 years in the A.

IIRC the SEL has a good NHL equivalency. Not sure how current this is but can certainly see Sal doing just fine on a sheltered 3rd pairing. Can also see Heinola doing just fine with Samberg as he learns the NHL game.

This confirms what we know about European hockey – Russia has produced the bestplayers, while the Czechs, Swedes and Finns have high-quality leagues that allow theirbest professionals to step directly into the NHL. Germany and Switzerland are clearlywell below the level of the six-best countries in the world. The World Championshipsmake it clear that an AHL All-Star team is nearly as good as the Swiss or GermanNational teams, and, barring a miracle, better than an NCAA All-Star team

http://hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/League_Equivalencies.pdf

That Hockeyanalytics stuff is way out of date. NHLe fancystatistician Chance McCallum has noticed other leagues getting worse relative to the NHL over the last few years in terms of NHLe. I think he got hired by someone and took down all his NHLe data, but that's what he was saying as of a few months ago.

 

[JetsUK]

That Hockeyanalytics stuff is way out of date. NHLe fancystatistician Chance McCallum has noticed other leagues getting worse relative to the NHL over the last few years in terms of NHLe. I think he got hired by someone and took down all his NHLe data, but that's what he was saying as of a few months ago.

Fair enough -- wasn't sure if it was current, just trying to help out. Will edit to add that rider.

 

[Blue Shakehead]

That Hockeyanalytics stuff is way out of date. NHLe fancystatistician Chance McCallum has noticed other leagues getting worse relative to the NHL over the last few years in terms of NHLe. I think he got hired by someone and took down all his NHLe data, but that's what he was saying as of a few months ago.

Even in its heyday, NHLe was largely hocus pocus. I knew it had problems when it was projecting Burmistrov's KHL production as a 45-50 point NHLer despite having laid several eggs in the NHL and AHL. NHLe never adjusted for PP production and so the only way it could even remotely translate would be to give the same player the same usage from league to league. Its basically impossible to properly adjust scoring rates within the NHL from era to era (as hard as they try) let alone from league to league.

 

[cbcwpg]

Bowness staying on and coaching again will totally be up to himself.

IMO If he wants to stay on, TNSE will let him. But, given health issues ( himself and his wife ) , and given his age, he might just decide to retire. If not, he will be back.

 

[MelikeJets]

We need toughness - physically and mentally.
Our forwards currently and hopefully upcoming (Lambert, McGroarty, Barlow etc.) are pretty darn good but our defense needs a complete overhaul or we are never going deep in the playoffs. Yes Helly was below average but holy smokes he was hung out to dry! Start clearing bodies from in front of him and results will be way different.
I hope "big" change happens on d this summer.

 

[Daximus]

Maybe Chevy can get our 1st and Kovacevic back from Montreal for Ehlers. They'd probably throw in Dvorak and Gallagher too!

I think targeting San Jose's 14th is a really solid start. I think San Jose's attendance took a big hit and with a high end lottery ball this season and a bunch of prospects already in the system the might be itching to turn the page a little bit. Ehlers is an exciting player to watch and he fits their speed system they are trying to build. If they land Celbrini they may want to add some vet presence to help him out.

I think we could potentially land 14th and a prospect from them for Ehlers, though they may try and make a bigger splash for a bigger fish.

There is also Chicago's 20th overall pick but I'm not sure the Jets want to trade Ehlers in division.