Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season

[ps241]

Yep, read the article and not a single thing I could disagree with in evaluating Scheifele’s contract vs. actual/projected value.

That contract and cap hit will stink at some point. “How soon” and “how bad” are the only questions left.

I run hot and cold on Dom but in this case I thought his summary of #55 was spot on.

 

[tbcwpg]

I run hot and cold on Dom but in this case I thought his summary of #55 was spot on.

I think it was accurate as well but I'm not sure it's 10 worst bad.

 

[10Ducky10]

So, Scheif is worth less than what Monahan signed for...gotcha.

 

[surixon]

The problem with his model is it is so dependent on usage. Mark isn't amazing defensively but he's been stuck with one of the leagues worst defensive players in KC and as a result he continuously loses his matchups. But we've seen him win his matchups and and his line have much better d when one of Ehlers/Perfetti take KC's spot. How different does this model look with one or the other getting the same minutes that KC got with Scheifele.

Every player that plays with McDavid or Crosby look like God's according to his model.

But I thought his writeup on Mark was well balanced.

 

[WolfHouse]

The problem with his model is it is so dependent on usage. Mark isn't amazing defensively but he's been stuck with one of the leagues worst defensive players in KC and as a result he continuously loses his matchups. But we've seen him win his matchups and and his line have much better d when one of Ehlers/Perfetti take KC's spot. How different does this model look with one or the other getting the same minutes that KC got with Scheifele.

Every player that plays with McDavid or Crosby look like God's according to his model.

But I thought his writeup on Mark was well balanced.

Superstars make everyone look good - with or without a model... ask Jake guentzel

 

[Weezeric]

The problem with his model is it is so dependent on usage. Mark isn't amazing defensively but he's been stuck with one of the leagues worst defensive players in KC and as a result he continuously loses his matchups. But we've seen him win his matchups and and his line have much better d when one of Ehlers/Perfetti take KC's spot. How different does this model look with one or the other getting the same minutes that KC got with Scheifele.

Every player that plays with McDavid or Crosby look like God's according to his model.

But I thought his writeup on Mark was well balanced.

When a model that claims to judge the value of a total contract has a contract go from one of the worst to one of the best in a short time, I’d start to question the value of such a model.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This is not a huge surprise. The Jets haven't really lost that much from the beginning of last season. Monahan and Toffoli replaced Namestnikov and Perfetti in the line-up. Samberg replaces Dillon. Miller replaces Schmidt. The main gap will be at 6D (Heinola or Stanley) and at back-up goalie (Kahkonen or Comrie for Brossoit).

Vilardi missed 35 games via injury.

I think the Jets' roster is a bit weaker than the start of last season without Dillon and Schmidt on D, but if Heinola, Miller and maybe Stanley fill the 3rd pair gap, they might not be that much worse. Biggest lost might be back-up goalie. I'm hoping that they don't suffer too much there.

I don't think you can say that Samberg replaces Dillon. He moves into Dillon's spot on the depth chart but then you need someone to fill his spot.

Vilardi missed 35 games - and probably will again.

Brossoit will be missed.

Overall, I think the D corps is weaker if we go into the season as it is today. The F corps is no change. Goal is weaker. Can't expect Helle to win the Jennings and Vezina every year and backup is weaker.

 

[Whileee]

I don't think you can say that Samberg replaces Dillon. He moves into Dillon's spot on the depth chart but then you need someone to fill his spot.

Vilardi missed 35 games - and probably will again.

Brossoit will be missed.

Overall, I think the D corps is weaker if we go into the season as it is today. The F corps is no change. Goal is weaker. Can't expect Helle to win the Jennings and Vezina every year and backup is weaker.

Well, it really depends on whether Heinola can fill the 3LD position. If not, then a lot of the hype and angst will have been for no reason. I actually think Samberg might be better than Dillon, particularly as a partner for Pionk. If he can raise that 2nd pair into a positive level then it will offset if there are losses on the 3rd pair. Regardless, the impact of the top two pairs is more significant than the 3rd pair, which can be more sheltered.

Well, if you want to project long-term injuries to key players, then of course the season will look bleak. Conversely, maybe there won't be injuries to Vilardi and Connor and Perfetti and Ehlers will get more minutes.

 

[ps241]

The problem with his model is it is so dependent on usage. Mark isn't amazing defensively but he's been stuck with one of the leagues worst defensive players in KC and as a result he continuously loses his matchups. But we've seen him win his matchups and and his line have much better d when one of Ehlers/Perfetti take KC's spot. How different does this model look with one or the other getting the same minutes that KC got with Scheifele.

Every player that plays with McDavid or Crosby look like God's according to his model.

But I thought his writeup on Mark was well balanced.

Its a good point but at the end of the day that is how the organization has decided to deploy him for the vast majority of his time so it is what it is. I don't sense they are taking Mark anywhere he doesn't want to go. He seems to be more comfortable with KC which might indicate Mark is not as concerned about their defensive liability.

 

[LowLefty]

The problem with his model is it is so dependent on usage. Mark isn't amazing defensively but he's been stuck with one of the leagues worst defensive players in KC and as a result he continuously loses his matchups. But we've seen him win his matchups and and his line have much better d when one of Ehlers/Perfetti take KC's spot. How different does this model look with one or the other getting the same minutes that KC got with Scheifele.

Every player that plays with McDavid or Crosby look like God's according to his model.

But I thought his writeup on Mark was well balanced.

I struggle with the concept that we should be measuring our 1C based on who he is playing with - if anything, you'd want or expect that 1C to offset the D shortfall of a pure goal scorer (KC) - not blame him for what is an obvious weakness in the player.
You could flip the scenario and ask what KC's value would be if he was playing with a center with more defense in his toolbox. But is that really a reflection of KC or the defensive center?

As a stand alone player, what is he? We know he isn't "amazing" defensively - but what does that mean exactly?
Scheif could be a top center in this league if he put more effort into his defensive game - but he doesn't and that's all this ranking is about.
I still hope that at some point, he evens out his game as two way center - but I don't get the impression he is even aware of any defensive shortfall.
Either that or he simply has no interest in that aspect of the game.
Not beating up on 55 - he is what he is - and the back half of this contract will not be pretty IMO.

 

[ps241]

I think it was accurate as well but I'm not sure it's 10 worst bad.

I agree with that for sure at this snapshot in time I don't have an issue with what Mark is getting paid for this season. I think the piece is taking into account the entire term of the contract.

 

[surixon]

I struggle with the concept that we should be measuring our 1C based on who he is playing with - if anything, you'd want or expect that 1C to offset the D shortfall of a pure goal scorer (KC) - not blame him for what is an obvious weakness in the player.
You could flip the scenario and ask what KC's value would be if he was playing with a center with more defense in his toolbox. But is that really a reflection of KC or the defensive center?

As a stand alone player, what is he? We know he isn't "amazing" defensively - but what does that mean exactly?
Scheif could be a top center in this league if he put more effort into his defensive game - but he doesn't and that's all this ranking is about.
I still hope that at some point, he evens out his game as two way center - but I don't get the impression he is even aware of any defensive shortfall.
Either that or he simply has no interest in that aspect of the game.
Not beating up on 55 - he is what he is - and the back half of this contract will not be pretty IMO.

Elite centers can elevate their linemates but Mark is well past that point in his career. At this point we should be about trying to maximize the efficiency of each of those players and we have seen both do better away from each other.

It isn't just about offsetting defense, it's also about the two of them together resort to a more passive perimeter offensive game where they look for the perfect opportunity.

When separated KC plays more assertively and is a much better puck hound and it increases his efficiency. Mark also plays a fast game.

Its a good point but at the end of the day that is how the organization has decided to deploy him for the vast majority of his time so it is what it is. I don't sense they are taking Mark anywhere he doesn't want to go. He seems to be more comfortable with KC which might indicate Mark is not as concerned about their defensive liability.

Yeah I
get that. I just found the model to be a microcosm of the line he's predominantly played on. Clearly he is also comfortable with it but I think it points to future issues if we deploy as is. Only so much you can ask of your made 6 to prop up a poor first line.

 

[LowLefty]

Elite centers can elevate their linemates but Mark is well past that point in his career. At this point we should be about trying to maximize the efficiency of each of those players and we have seen both do better away from each other.

It isn't just about offsetting defense, it's also about the two of them together resort to a more passive perimeter offensive game where they look for the perfect opportunity.

When separated KC plays more assertively and is a much better puck hound and it increases his efficiency. Mark also plays a fast game.

I don't want to go too far down any rabbit holes about his game with/without certain players - that was kind of the point in my post.
It's about Mark and his game style - it's one dimensional and pretty much offensive driven. And that's what is impacting the ranking IMO.

 

[buggs]

I don't want to go too far down any rabbit holes about his game with/without certain players - that was kind of the point in my post.
It's about Mark and his game style - it's one dimensional and pretty much offensive driven. And that's what is impacting the ranking IMO.

I suspect that Mark's play previously when he has shown himself quite capable defensively is playing an impact as well. It's some time ago now but after that 17-18 season Mark was in a top 10 center discussion regularly because of his all around play, not just his offense. Were he to get back to that style of play consistently through the season I think many would reflect on the contract in a more positive light. He can do it; he seems to be choosing not to.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The Vilardi sample size on that line is incredibly small though so hard to read much. Honestly swap Ehelrs and KC for me if that's the setup. Perfetti and fly fill largely the same function albeit very differently. Have Schiefele and KC be the primary triggermans on their own lines.

I'm fine with keeping Name on line two but I think they need to transition to a long term center option. Have him groom and slowly seed the center responsibility throughout the year.

If you want better faceoffs no way should Name be inked in at C then. He's likely not going to improve at his age but with a lot of practice one of the younger guys could.

As for line 4, Arneil himself indicated he wanted more offense from the group and indicated wanting speed. One way to do that is a more offensive minded fourth if the Lowry line will still be playing minutes as a checking unit.

Just not happening. Not putting Perfetti there either. You might be able to swap one of them with Vilardi. But KC is cemented to Scheifele's left wing.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Well, it really depends on whether Heinola can fill the 3LD position. If not, then a lot of the hype and angst will have been for no reason. I actually think Samberg might be better than Dillon, particularly as a partner for Pionk. If he can raise that 2nd pair into a positive level then it will offset if there are losses on the 3rd pair. Regardless, the impact of the top two pairs is more significant than the 3rd pair, which can be more sheltered.

Well, if you want to project long-term injuries to key players, then of course the season will look bleak. Conversely, maybe there won't be injuries to Vilardi and Connor and Perfetti and Ehlers will get more minutes.

I think Snerg will be better than Dillon in some ways. He will not replace Dillon's physicality or mean streak. Not sure if he can get any better out of Pionk or not. If he can do that it will be a net +.

I expect Heinola to adequately fill 3LD. At least better than Stan. I don't expect a left side of JMo, Snerg, Heini to be as good as JMo, Dillon, Snerg.

Lots of players miss games. Vilardi appears to be made of glass. I reserved opinion on that last year. I saw it as his chance to break the string. He did not. Now I just assume 20-25+ missed games for him. Just hope he can be healthy for the PO.

 

[NA Hockey]

Just not happening. Not putting Perfetti there either. You might be able to swap one of them with Vilardi. But KC is cemented to Scheifele's left wing.

I think you are right about that. One of the reasons though that KFC is stapled to Scheif that people I think miss, is that Bones wanted them to both play 20 mins a game. If they are on different lines and given the way that Bones played Lowry's line, KFC would be closer to 15 minutes a game if he were on the "second line". He "had" to play them together to get them the minutes he wanted.

Now, perhaps Arniel roles the line in a more conventional way and the Lowry line plays 14 mins a night like other teams third lines,, then you could spread the wealth on the top two lines and have them both play 17-20 mins on separate lines. Bones only cared that 55-81 play a lot and that 17's line play the hard minutes. Perhaps Arniel sees more priority in getting 27 and 91 and even 93 more ice and doesn't see the need to get Apples out so much.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I have a hard time pencilling him into the starting roster... Gus took real strides last year as a defensive minded forward and deserves a PK role/4th line C and Lambert deserves a shot before Kupari too

Kupari is fast but he seems comparable to AJF so far...

More comparable to James Wright or Burmistrov after coming back from the KHL. Lots of speed. No results.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yes, he did. His model had him at $5.3M x seven years.

Basically, to sum it up, here's what he had to say:

- Scheifele is worth $8.5M offensively, but his defensive game is so bad it takes away from that. He's a low-end top-line option

- Scheifele being the Jets best forward is a big reason why the Jets are first-round fodder, he doesn't stack up well against the rest of the game's elite, and doubling-down with him is going to cost the Jets moving forward

- His offence is largely "empty calories" because he gives so much back defensively despite getting secondary matchups

- He's 31, so things are likely to get worse

- If his offence dries up, it's an albatross

I don't believe his defense is that bad. I think KC drags him down defensively. Both of those players are better when they are not together.

Yep, read the article and not a single thing I could disagree with in evaluating Scheifele’s contract vs. actual/projected value.

That contract and cap hit will stink at some point. “How soon” and “how bad” are the only questions left.

That contract was always going to stink at some point. The key is to get 4-5 good years before the stink arrives.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think you are right about that. One of the reasons though that KFC is stapled to Scheif that people I think miss, is that Bones wanted them to both play 20 mins a game. If they are on different lines and given the way that Bones played Lowry's line, KFC would be closer to 15 minutes a game if he were on the "second line". He "had" to play them together to get them the minutes he wanted.

Now, perhaps Arniel roles the line in a more conventional way and the Lowry line plays 14 mins a night like other teams third lines,, then you could spread the wealth on the top two lines and have them both play 17-20 mins on separate lines. Bones only cared that 55-81 play a lot and that 17's line play the hard minutes. Perhaps Arniel sees more priority in getting 27 and 91 and even 93 more ice and doesn't see the need to get Apples out so much.

The TOI argument looks good if you look only at Bones' term. Previous coaches stapled them together too.

I suspect it is Scheifele's choice.

So, Scheif is worth less than what Monahan signed for...gotcha.

Did he say that Scheifele's contract was worse then PLD's?

 

[Eyeseeing]

Yes, he did. His model had him at $5.3M x seven years.

Basically, to sum it up, here's what he had to say:

- Scheifele is worth $8.5M offensively, but his defensive game is so bad it takes away from that. He's a low-end top-line option

- Scheifele being the Jets best forward is a big reason why the Jets are first-round fodder, he doesn't stack up well against the rest of the game's elite, and doubling-down with him is going to cost the Jets moving forward

- His offence is largely "empty calories" because he gives so much back defensively despite getting secondary matchups

- He's 31, so things are likely to get worse

- If his offence dries up, it's an albatross

It’s a ridiculous take based on hindsight
When Scheifele signed he was a steal or at least reasonable in most people’s opinion

 

[DRW204]

The problem with his model is it is so dependent on usage. Mark isn't amazing defensively but he's been stuck with one of the leagues worst defensive players in KC and as a result he continuously loses his matchups. But we've seen him win his matchups and and his line have much better d when one of Ehlers/Perfetti take KC's spot. How different does this model look with one or the other getting the same minutes that KC got with Scheifele.

Every player that plays with McDavid or Crosby look like God's according to his model.

But I thought his writeup on Mark was well balanced.

of course if you put every player in the most favorable situation or context their stats would look different or probably better. but that's not what happened actuality. you can build extremely favorable hypotheticals for every player.

 

[Gm0ney]

It’s a ridiculous take based on hindsight
When Scheifele signed he was a steal or at least reasonable in most people’s opinion

His previous deal was excellent, no argument there. The deal he signed last October that kicks in this season is the one that's being criticized.

 

[enuffidiotsalready]

When a model that claims to judge the value of a total contract has a contract go from one of the worst to one of the best in a short time, I’d start to question the value of such a model.

that's where I'm at, but I've got no time for Dom and don't know why they're paying him. also he seems to hate Winnipeg more than even Overshart

 

[Flair Hay]

It’s a ridiculous take based on hindsight
When Scheifele signed he was a steal or at least reasonable in most people’s opinion

It might not be a ridiculous take.

All those points could be true. He does give back a lot defensively. He does have potential to slow down in his mid 30's.

The deal worked great for the team short term, we won't feel any pain until the back half of the contract. Which the model would be weighing equally. I imagine the Jets are weighting the front half a lot more important than the back half.

I don't believe his defense is that bad. I think KC drags him down defensively. Both of those players are better when they are not together.



That contract was always going to stink at some point. The key is to get 4-5 good years before the stink arrives.

These are good points. Scheif and Connor both look worse defensively together than apart. Or at least easier to cover up with different linemates...