Player Discussion: Winnipeg Jets Defense

[Bender Duster]

Hasn’t Ville spent some time playing both sides?

I hope so…because that’s what he’ll be doing paired with Stanley tonight.

 

[voyageur]

I've had the same thought about Morrissey and Heinola as well.

If he can handle playing 3rd pair with Stan on his offside, that pretty much means he is top 4 ready...

Arniel throwing him in the deep end and letting him swim, I like it.

What I am looking at is Heinola has played at the AHL level with both Perfetti and Lambert who are on the same line. Can those 3 find each other on the ice in scoring situations? Start from there. I'd like to see Stanley find his rythym, the Jets do need him to be impactful in a positive way.

 

[voyageur]

What is Pionk going to make on the open market after this year?

I think he re-signs for less than open market value, leaves something on the table for his d-partner Samberg.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Arniel tonight, after Stanley took 3 minors and was benched in the 3rd because he couldn't be trusted...

"Stanley's a big body and we need him in the top 6. He won't get better in the press box."

Heinola is cooked. No chance he's going to get a shot at an NHL career with the Jets.

Or is Arniel just avoiding throwing him under the bus?

If we take Arniel as even remotely sincere in those remarks then yes, Heinola is never getting a chance with the Jets.

Stanley's size keeps him in the lineup despite the fact that he simply is not effective in any way.

Will Stan be in the lineup or the PB tonight?

Will this ever end? Will Stanley still be playing at 42 under Jets 11th coach who says that he can't improve in the pressbox?

Tune in to TSN3 for the answers to these and other questions on the next episode of, As The Puck Bounces.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I have a cousin, 6'5 320 lbs+. He's a big body who won't get better sitting in the pressbox. Whom do I contact in the Jets organization to get him in as a top-6 d-man?

You would have thought the Kovacevic and Chisholm experiences would have taught this organization something. Doesn't seem to be the case so far.

6'5 phffft! Give me some 6'7.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The Kovacevic one is really odd because he's almost as big as Stanley and a right shot which we really coveted at the time. 6'5 230 lbs right shot stay at home defender that costs minimal.

.... and is mobile.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

At the time that we lost Kovacevic, our right side was set with established vets - Demelo, Pionk, and Schmidt

@WolfHouse has made the argument that they should have tried Kova on the 3rd pairing on the right side instead of going out and trading for Schmidt that summer - hindsight sees the validity in that point of view, but at the time, Kova hadn't shown much at the AHL level that would have indicated that he'd turn into what he has today

I made that statement at the time - and before. Not to say I told you so but to say that it wasn't hindsight for me.

He hadn't shown much at the NHL level, but he had shown enough at the AHL level to make it a reasonable prediction, to make it a reasonable thing to try before going to the market for a vet on the downside of his career.

 

[KingBogo]

I think special teams roles have a say. With Samberg down I don't think the Jets want to temper the impact they have with Morrissey 5 on 5 covering so much ice, by having him kill penalties, and Stan can use that big body to absorb some shots, where they may want to protect Ville's ankle coming back.

The thing I see is if Ville shows any acumen playing his offside, there is a chance to move him up to play with Morrissey at times, and have a pure skating d pair on par or above Toews-Makar. And move Melo down with Stan, which seems a little more stable. Might be your PK2 as well, as I think Pionk could easily be ahead of Melo in that role, at this point of the season.

I think it's experimental if nothing else. And until Samberg comes back, the Jets will have to experiment with different defensive combinations.

Thanks for keeping the PK on the table. A lot of discussions on here leave that very important variable out of the discussion. And agreed with Samberg out Morrissey is already taking on a lot of tough minutes. You wouldn’t want to add to this by giving him PK duty essentially with the added injury risk.

 

[Gm0ney]

Thanks for keeping the PK on the table. A lot of discussions on here leave that very important variable out of the discussion. And agreed with Samberg out Morrissey is already taking on a lot of tough minutes. You wouldn’t want to add to this by giving him PK duty essentially with the added injury risk.

Stanley can't kill penalties from the press penalty box!

 

[BoneDocUK]

I made that statement at the time - and before. Not to say I told you so but to say that it wasn't hindsight for me.

He hadn't shown much at the NHL level, but he had shown enough at the AHL level to make it a reasonable prediction, to make it a reasonable thing to try before going to the market for a vet on the downside of his career.

He'd been excellent at the AHL level, and had played well if cautiously in his limited NHL showings. Plenty of people who'd watched him in the A thought he was a natural to progress in at at least a bottom-pairing and PK role, especially given the character and determination he'd shown as a late bloomer in getting as far as he had.

Also, the Jets were not particularly strong on the right -- Schmidt was already on a downward swing, Pionk was entering The Chaos Years, and may/ may not have been carrying a longterm foot injury. DeMelo was a player the Jets had already exposed in the draft IIRC. A big, quick, mobile and physical RHD who had been developed in-house, could play a solid stay-at-home game while also being a strong PKer with a good transition game was a natch, on a side the Jets had been weaker on, and costing little.

The Jets see what they see in Stanley. They spent to get him, and have spent arguably more to keep him. He's not a guy who's likely to carry them over the top and far from the reason they're on the current slide -- but at some point they need to cut bait and recognise that whatever they might lose in Logan they've already lost, and more, by keeping him.

Hopefully they can grind out a win against STL and buy a bit more time for the wounded to heal. And play Coughlan, and maybe SomeoneNotStan.

A gem from Garret's longform piece. Yes, it's analytics, Jim, but not as we know it:

Adjusting for usage, Stanley’s RAPM Corsi and expected goal differentials resemble Beaulieu’s and Morrow’s but are even worse. He’s outshot and outchanced at a rate similar to Anthony Bitetto and Jay Harrison.

 

[Bob E]

I have no idea why Arniel continues to trot Stanley out there in top 6 role. They can’t be showcasing him for trade since the more he plays the further his stock drops.

Over under Stanley taking 2 penalties tonight?

 

[Gm0ney]

I have no idea why Arniel continues to trot Stanley out there in top 6 role. They can’t be showcasing him for trade since the more he plays the further his stock drops.

Over under Stanley taking 2 penalties tonight?

Jets are at home so they probably won't call the marginal stuff. I'll take the under.

 

[abax44]

I have a cousin, 320 lbs+. Whom do I contact in the Jets organization?

The team Dr. Ask for a referral to an endocrinologist.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

He'd been excellent at the AHL level, and had played well if cautiously in his limited NHL showings. Plenty of people who'd watched him in the A thought he was a natural to progress in at at least a bottom-pairing and PK role, especially given the character and determination he'd shown as a late bloomer in getting as far as he had.

Also, the Jets were not particularly strong on the right -- Schmidt was already on a downward swing, Pionk was entering The Chaos Years, and may/ may not have been carrying a longterm foot injury. DeMelo was a player the Jets had already exposed in the draft IIRC. A big, quick, mobile and physical RHD who had been developed in-house, could play a solid stay-at-home game while also being a strong PKer with a good transition game was a natch, on a side the Jets had been weaker on, and costing little.

The Jets see what they see in Stanley. They spent to get him, and have spent arguably more to keep him. He's not a guy who's likely to carry them over the top and far from the reason they're on the current slide -- but at some point they need to cut bait and recognise that whatever they might lose in Logan they've already lost, and more, by keeping him.

Hopefully they can grind out a win against STL and buy a bit more time for the wounded to heal. And play Coughlan, and maybe SomeoneNotStan.

A gem from Garret's longform piece. Yes, it's analytics, Jim, but not as we know it:

Adjusting for usage, Stanley’s RAPM Corsi and expected goal differentials resemble Beaulieu’s and Morrow’s but are even worse. He’s outshot and outchanced at a rate similar to Anthony Bitetto and Jay Harrison.

Sunk cost fallacy in play?

And maybe a bit of the grass being greener on the other side in Kova's case (Chisholm too!). With both of those guys its like they just didn't want to believe what they saw. 4th & 5th rd picks can't be that good???? The old known bad vet over unknown prospect thing? But Stanley just keeps getting more and more rope. At some point it has to come to an end.

It isn't the sole reason for the current slide but he might have been the difference between an L and a W in that last game. The PK was great (without Stan) but all that PK'ing has to put them off their game at least a little and the difference was only a little.

 

[DRW204]

I'm really really hoping that Arniel was just speaking in platitudes and did not want to throw Stanley under the bus. I am really hoping that the brain trust of this team does not serious believe that Stanley is a player that absolutely needs to be in that top 6. Time will tell I guess.

I will also say that on some level I do get what the Jets are looking for. I personally think that defense pairings can be an example of the sum being greater than its parts. Samberg and Pionk being a great example. Pionks isolated numbers look terrible and while yes I get that Samberg is pulling him up that pairing together has displayed results well above either guys ability. Their skill sets just compliments each other really well, Samberg makes excellent defensive zone reads and makes good zone exits (an area that Pionk really struggles in). Pionk is much better in the offensive zone he makes good passes and keeps plays alive in the offensive zone (Way better than Samberg) together it's just a pairing that works to generate shots and goals when they are on the ice.

A long way of saying I think they are trying to create that meshing of skill sets in all thier pairs. They feel like they have it on P1 and up until this year I would have agreed. They now have it in P2 when Samberg is healthy and I can see how they may feel that Stanleys skill set gets them closer to that with Miller on P3. I don't disagree thats what you want in your pairs but I would much rather see them experiment with Heinola and if he proves to be competent then go out and try to get a partner for him that you feel will give you that balance.

well, he's in the line up so there's your answer.

 

[Keystone]

Sunk cost fallacy in play?

And maybe a bit of the grass being greener on the other side in Kova's case (Chisholm too!). With both of those guys its like they just didn't want to believe what they saw. 4th & 5th rd picks can't be that good???? The old known bad vet over unknown prospect thing? But Stanley just keeps getting more and more rope. At some point it has to come to an end.

It isn't the sole reason for the current slide but he might have been the difference between an L and a W in that last game. The PK was great (without Stan) but all that PK'ing has to put them off their game at least a little and the difference was only a little.

We’ve all owned a vehicle like Stanley. It hurts to finally move on from the bad decision until you pass it broke down on the highway with its next sucker. ….Maybe it was a girlfriend not a truck.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

I hope so…because that’s what he’ll be doing paired with Stanley tonight.

First time playing RD in his career was training camp 2023 when he was paired with Dillon for pre season games while Schmidt was day to day.

Throwing him to the wolves tonight dealing with Stanley, playing his weak side while getting in some of his first real NHL action in 2 seasons.

Is Miller hurt?

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

He'd been excellent at the AHL level, and had played well if cautiously in his limited NHL showings. Plenty of people who'd watched him in the A thought he was a natural to progress in at at least a bottom-pairing and PK role, especially given the character and determination he'd shown as a late bloomer in getting as far as he had.

Also, the Jets were not particularly strong on the right -- Schmidt was already on a downward swing, Pionk was entering The Chaos Years, and may/ may not have been carrying a longterm foot injury. DeMelo was a player the Jets had already exposed in the draft IIRC. A big, quick, mobile and physical RHD who had been developed in-house, could play a solid stay-at-home game while also being a strong PKer with a good transition game was a natch, on a side the Jets had been weaker on, and costing little.

The Jets see what they see in Stanley. They spent to get him, and have spent arguably more to keep him. He's not a guy who's likely to carry them over the top and far from the reason they're on the current slide -- but at some point they need to cut bait and recognise that whatever they might lose in Logan they've already lost, and more, by keeping him.

Hopefully they can grind out a win against STL and buy a bit more time for the wounded to heal. And play Coughlan, and maybe SomeoneNotStan.

A gem from Garret's longform piece. Yes, it's analytics, Jim, but not as we know it:

Adjusting for usage, Stanley’s RAPM Corsi and expected goal differentials resemble Beaulieu’s and Morrow’s but are even worse. He’s outshot and outchanced at a rate similar to Anthony Bitetto and Jay Harrison.

This was Garrett’s article yesterday entitled “Monday Review: It Is Time That Logan Stanley Experiment Ends”

The Hohl article is pretty damning.

 

[Bob E]

Jets are at home so they probably won't call the marginal stuff. I'll take the under.

Good call.

 

[voyageur]

He'd been excellent at the AHL level, and had played well if cautiously in his limited NHL showings. Plenty of people who'd watched him in the A thought he was a natural to progress in at at least a bottom-pairing and PK role, especially given the character and determination he'd shown as a late bloomer in getting as far as he had.

Also, the Jets were not particularly strong on the right -- Schmidt was already on a downward swing, Pionk was entering The Chaos Years, and may/ may not have been carrying a longterm foot injury. DeMelo was a player the Jets had already exposed in the draft IIRC. A big, quick, mobile and physical RHD who had been developed in-house, could play a solid stay-at-home game while also being a strong PKer with a good transition game was a natch, on a side the Jets had been weaker on, and costing little.

The Jets see what they see in Stanley. They spent to get him, and have spent arguably more to keep him. He's not a guy who's likely to carry them over the top and far from the reason they're on the current slide -- but at some point they need to cut bait and recognise that whatever they might lose in Logan they've already lost, and more, by keeping him.

Hopefully they can grind out a win against STL and buy a bit more time for the wounded to heal. And play Coughlan, and maybe SomeoneNotStan.

A gem from Garret's longform piece. Yes, it's analytics, Jim, but not as we know it:

Adjusting for usage, Stanley’s RAPM Corsi and expected goal differentials resemble Beaulieu’s and Morrow’s but are even worse. He’s outshot and outchanced at a rate similar to Anthony Bitetto and Jay Harrison.

To me it's fascinating that Stanley is somehow a +6 on the team this year, tied for 3rd among d-men. I think it must be the Ehlers effect. +23 in his career is respectable. Maybe it's the same reason Beaulieu was a team high +15 in 2020-21 (38 games), goaltending makes up the difference. Or strong team play.

But I wonder what it is beyond the expectancy of goals that has Fleury at -5 on the other end of the spectrum. Maybe the type of chances given up? Is Stanley somehow better at limiting rush chances, which are more dangerous? Don't see it, but maybe it's relative to the players he on the ice with limiting rush chances.

I still think the Jets are willing to get outshot if Stan can be effective on the PK, because that's a one shot, one goal scenario.

The Jets losing streak coincides with Samberg going down, and that's one to watch, because there's still a clear #1 and #2 d-man on the team, but without #4, and with #3 struggling (injury?), the #5-9s on the team are struggling to pick up the slack.

I think Coghlan would be good to get in the lineup because he's not injured and he's been around all through camp and the regular season, probably more up to a game speed. Being a RD though does he get in on his offside, which he played in preseason? Miller doesn't seem to be the problem. Arniel has been conservative while things are working. He's got a bit of a test to get more out of this defense, which definitely is not among the best in the West, and maybe the freefall is a correction.

 

[ps241]

This D group doesn’t look the same without Samberg. Turns out he was a hell of a second round pick and that is something we never say in Winnipeg. Now we just need Salomonsson to become a top 4 D man and we might have officially reversed the curse.

 

[BoneDocUK]

This D group doesn’t look the same without Samberg. Turns out he was a hell of a second round pick and that is something we never say in Winnipeg. Now we just need Salomonsson to become a top 4 D man and we might have officially reversed the curse.

Yep.

My midnight theory is that this is a team that sits on the edge of chaos, and a player like Samberg offers real stability and becomes a key anchor for his partner, line and even the rest of the team to push off from. A bit like the Good Buff that followed Bad Buff and made so many believers in the team.

He doesn't need to be the best player or the best D, just that super-solid reliable guy that offers a breather and chance to reset. An antidote to the chaos and someone who, like Lowry and often Helle, can settle down a play and allow a positive attack to begin.

If you watch Samberg carefully, quite a lot of his game is settling down plays, taking time to assess what's ahead of him, allowing players ot get to where they need to be and starting off the next run of plays after a brief reset.

Pionk has been excellent this year, but IMO a legit contending team can only allow so much chaos into their game. When the Jets are cooking they manage that trick; when they come undone they don't and can't. The best teams have one or more such players. DeMelo has been that but ain't this year. Salmo has been that for his teams. Stanley has never been.

There it is -- come back soon, Slammy.

 

[Whileee]

As much as I like Heinola and hope he can succeed, he was thrown around a lot by the big Blues' forwards last night, and ended up taking a frustration penalty. He has some grit, but he needs to figure out how to play a more effective game given his lack of size and strength.

Throwing him onto RD with Stanley isn't a very good way to assess him, though.

I'm tired of commenting on Stanley. He just makes so many aimless passes and rims that end up in failed exits or icing and then sustained D zone pressure by opponents. The big question is whether Chevy has enough confidence in Stanley "developing" into a legit playoff option over the rest of season, given the very high stakes for the Jets in this contending window. I certainly don't have that confidence. I'm not persuaded that Heinola is the answer, either. If I were Chevy I'd be looking for another D to augment this D.

Unfortunately, if DeMelo continues is baffling plummet into mediocrity, Chevy will need to find a solution to pair with Morrissey. Right now, DeMelo is sinking that pair and eliminating Morrissey's effectiveness as teams exploit DeMelo and make the game much more challenging for Morrissey.

 

[DRW204]

Yep.

My midnight theory is that this is a team that sits on the edge of chaos, and a player like Samberg offers real stability and becomes a key anchor for his partner, line and even the rest of the team to push off from. A bit like the Good Buff that followed Bad Buff and made so many believers in the team.

He doesn't need to be the best player or the best D, just that super-solid reliable guy that offers a breather and chance to reset. An antidote to the chaos and someone who, like Lowry and often Helle, can settle down a play and allow a positive attack to begin.

If you watch Samberg carefully, quite a lot of his game is settling down plays, taking time to assess what's ahead of him, allowing players ot get to where they need to be and starting off the next run of plays after a brief reset.

Pionk has been excellent this year, but IMO a legit contending team can only allow so much chaos into their game. When the Jets are cooking they manage that trick; when they come undone they don't and can't. The best teams have one or more such players. DeMelo has been that but ain't this year. Salmo has been that for his teams. Stanley has never been.

There it is -- come back soon, Slammy.

prior to the year, i wanted to be a bit careful in labeling samberg a sure thing at top-4D before actually seeing him play it game-in game-out. however, samberg has been excellent in that spot to start this year. the problem is with the injury, the drop off from him to his replacement has been to much to overcome so far.

contrast to last year, if dillon got hurt - samberg comes up to 2nd pair. much better cushioning for the top-4.

then add the 3rd pair rotating cast of characters.... i thought miller was pretty good this year tbh (not sure what happened to him), and coghlan had a solid game vs vegas. i understand they're both RHD but now we're stuck with trying to force stanley or heinola (who are both LHDs)

 

[ps241]

prior to the year, i wanted to be a bit careful in labeling samberg a sure thing at top-4D before actually seeing him play it game-in game-out. however, samberg has been excellent in that spot to start this year. the problem is with the injury, the drop off from him to his replacement has been to much to overcome so far.

contrast to last year, if dillon got hurt - samberg comes up to 2nd pair. much better cushioning for the top-4.

then add the 3rd pair rotating cast of characters.... i thought miller was pretty good this year tbh (not sure what happened to him), and coghlan had a solid game vs vegas. i understand they're both RHD but now we're stuck with trying to force stanley or heinola (who are both LHDs)

Yea last year we had 5 guys that could play top four minutes (plus Schmidt) and this year we have 4. The signs were there with Samberg because of how much he dominated with Schmidt playing bottom pairing. realistically last season they were probably more of a 2nd pairing playing 3rd pairing minutes or close.