Prospect Info: Wings Prospect Discussion

[Crunchy]

Not saying junior success = NHL success. Just saying that lack of junior success very often does = lack of NHL success. Obviously other things matter. But lack of production isn't irrelevant to future success, it's the one thing that's the most relevant.

A Data-driven look at the top 250 prospects in the 2023 NHL Draft

Here is a data-driven look at how the top 250 prospects stack up for the upcoming NHL Entry Draft.

soundofhockey.com

Here's a 2023 ranking based entirely on stats. 2 years later, this is pretty close to how all of these guys have performed in higher leagues. And it's not a crazy different draft than what actually went down.

That list is not even a full 2 years out, so it's hard to use to support an argument regarding NHL outcomes... And I'm not sure it even looks like it would support it at this point regardless. Just a glance shows an extreme disparity in the defenseman rankings and it's big forward takes appear to be that Perrault/Musty/Cristall > Leonard/Benson/Wood. Color me skeptical.

Of course scoring goals and helping to generate goals is important in prospect evaluation, but it's only a part of the eval. Isolating it is not superior to the holistic evaluation performed by NHL scouts and organizations.

Not only that but the value a player brings cannot be solely measured in points. Gustav Nyquist outscored Brady Tkachuk, Ryan O'Reilly, and Anze Kopitar last year, yet he holds nowhere close the value of these players. Hockey statistics are deeply flawed because much of what impacts winning is extremely difficult to quantify. Goals and points are easy to measure and therefore it is easy for them to be overrepresented. Especially in hockey, qualitative assessment remains vital particularly in the GA category, which heavily impacts winning.

 

[schuelma24]

Not saying junior success = NHL success. Just saying that lack of junior success very often does = lack of NHL success. Obviously other things matter. But lack of production isn't irrelevant to future success, it's the one thing that's the most relevant.

A Data-driven look at the top 250 prospects in the 2023 NHL Draft

Here is a data-driven look at how the top 250 prospects stack up for the upcoming NHL Entry Draft.

soundofhockey.com

Here's a 2023 ranking based entirely on stats. 2 years later, this is pretty close to how all of these guys have performed in higher leagues. And it's not a crazy different draft than what actually went down.

Wait what is that supposed to show? I thought you were going to link to some detailed analysis of like I dunno.. draft classes that have actually had multiple years to make it in the NHL? Right now for the most part what that appears to show is players who scored well in juniors/other leagues before they were drafted are still scoring in juniors. That list says very little about how the draft class is actuality shaping up in the NHL.

Edit- I just noticed that a guy I know you’re really high on because of his AHL points this year was ranked … 65 on this list.

 

[Pavels Dog]

It actually isn’t. There was an article on this a while back - I’ll try to find it - where someone redrafted based on just junior scoring snd it fared much better than who NHL teams actually drafted.

Major doubt. Even if such a method could, on average, be more successful when looking at a relatively standardized sample ("forwards from X junior league" for example), the problem becomes trying to apply it across leagues, across different positions, team situations, useage etc.
There are reasons NHLe is a complete joke that for every "success" (usually ranking a guy who was drafted 15th as a top 10 prospect) will rank absolute stars as 4th rounders.

Like I'm not saying Tom Willander is going to be a star - but he's ranked 185th in that link. David Edstrom is 163rd. Even if they turn into nothing, it's impossible to ignore that "conventional" scouting would never result in such insane rankings.

 

[RedHawkDown]

I get what y’all are saying and obviously I’m not saying conventional scouting is useless. Defensemen for one can’t be scouted that way. Just saying scoring matters and ignoring it isn’t the way either.

 

[wingerdinger]

I get what y’all are saying and obviously I’m not saying conventional scouting is useless. Defensemen for one can’t be scouted that way. Just saying scoring matters and ignoring it isn’t the way either.

Scoring of course matters, just you cant replace actual scouting with spreadsheets.

 

[Our Lady Peace]

 

[19 for president]

Based on all the odd stats sites and twitter I had to wander through it looks like ASP got a goal and MBN had an assist.

 

[schuelma24]

ASP with 1 goal, 3 assists in 6 games. MBN 2 goals and 2 assists.

Difficult year for MBN but again showing out in the playoffs.

 

[Realgud]

ASP with 1 goal, 3 assists in 6 games. MBN 2 goals and 2 assists.

Difficult year for MBN but again showing out in the playoffs.

Exactly like last year with Mora. I thought he was just ok during the regular season but everything came together for him in the playoffs and the WC. Cool to see it happen again for him this season!

 

[deca guard]

 

[Frk It]

 

[Konnan511]

Well...this is bad. Generally prospects only return for their senior season by their choice because they plan to go to Free Agency.

 

[norrisnick]

Well...this is bad. Generally prospects only return for their senior season by their choice because they plan to go to Free Agency.

This would be his junior year.

 

[Konnan511]

This would be his junior year.

Point still stands...except not in this scenario apparently lol.

Damn Elite Prospects updated that shiz quick.

 

[grsbmd]

Well...this is bad. Generally prospects only return for their senior season by their choice because they plan to go to Free Agency.

He's returning for his junior season.

 

[RabidBadger]

Point still stands...except not in this scenario apparently lol.

Damn Elite Prospects updated that shiz quick.

There's been a lot of guys that have passed on the pros and opted to come back for unfinished business; Ryan Leonard did it this year, Oshie and Toews did another year at NoDak, Jack Johnson at UM, Scott Perunevich and Dylan Samberg came back to try and three-peat.

You can't underestimate the bond some of these prospects have with their teammates. Cayden Lindstrom supposedly jumped from his junior team to MSU so that might have given Trey incentive to try for a natty again.