Prospect Info: Wings Prospect Discussion, Part II

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I thought we were referring to our prospect pool? When did this morph into a discussion about active NHL players? I was specifically referring to our prospects.

Sheesh
Someone adjusted your algorithm to include Cossa at one point, but then they must have cleared that script.
 
Key is we have a bunch of “good” players in the pool, but very little elite talent except for ASP.


This team has graduated its top prospect from 2020, 2021 and 2022 to the NHL. Out of curiosity, how many "elite prospects" do you expect a team to have after that?
 
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Here’s something to note;

There has been ONE 40 goal scorer drafted after 2017 - Jack Hughes in 2019, and Caulfield might hit that this year. None from the 2020 to 2024 drafts. Most players hitting this mark were drafted between 2014 and 2016. The lone guy from 2017 to hit this mark was Jason Robertson.

There have been 7 players after the 2017 draft with point per game seasons; Brady Tkachuk, Quinn Hughes, Jack Hughes, Evan Bouchard, Kirill Marchenko this year, Tim Stutzle, Lucas Raymond this year.

These guys don’t grow on trees. There’s maybe 25 or 30 per season. We shouldn’t cry if our prospects don’t hit this mark or say that they’re busts.
 
Here’s something to note;

There has been ONE 40 goal scorer drafted after 2017 - Jack Hughes in 2019, and Caulfield might hit that this year. None from the 2020 to 2024 drafts. Most players hitting this mark were drafted between 2014 and 2016. The lone guy from 2017 to hit this mark was Jason Robertson.

There have been 7 players after the 2017 draft with point per game seasons; Brady Tkachuk, Quinn Hughes, Jack Hughes, Evan Bouchard, Kirill Marchenko this year, Tim Stutzle, Lucas Raymond this year.

These guys don’t grow on trees. There’s maybe 25 or 30 per season. We shouldn’t cry if our prospects don’t hit this mark or say that they’re busts.

The 20-30 goal mark is a good hit for a younger guy. Raymond is excelling, but it's not realistic to put that expectation on guys in our bottom 6.
 
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Like…every game day thread where you say Seider can’t play offensively, or Larkin isn’t a 1C. Or that Kasper is a bust because he had a cold streak on the 4th line…
Cool, you should have no problem finding recent posts where I said that about Larkin or Seider. Kasper, yeah I’ll give you that I can be pretty critical of him at times (though don’t think I ever called him a bust).
 
This team has graduated its top prospect from 2020, 2021 and 2022 to the NHL. Out of curiosity, how many "elite prospects" do you expect a team to have after that?


I was just looking at this one. People were saying Yzerman was hitting on his top pick and little else. The counter are the stats of players making the NHL by round and comparison to Holland (with the Zadina over Quinn pick standing out). I have that in the rear view mirror ala Vanishing Point, 4th gear Challenger heading west style.

I went immediately to 19

Mo - Enough said by all. Best pick since Larkin
OTHER PICKS: How about Albert Johansson at 60 (two top 4 D'men in one draft. I then went to pick 159..... Elmer Soderblom.

Not sure how you don't get an A+ grade for this draft.

2020

Top Pick Lucas Raymond - super star in the making. A rare player. An outstanding pick.
OTHER PICKS - Unless Wallinder comes on no other player will be in the NHL.

A+ - Come on now, he picked Lucas Raymond.

2021

Top Pick Simon Edvinsson - On track to be the anchor #2 D'man.
OTHER PICKS - Cossa, Buium, Mazur, Savage

A+

2022

Top Pick - Marco Kasper - Kid is a top line player TODAY
OTHER PICKS: Bucheinkov, Anton Johansson, Lombardi (haven't seen much here on #2 pick Dylan James, but most expect Buch to be a top 6 player. AJ - Nick likes him. that's good enough for me. (See link)

A+

2023

Top Pick - Nate Danielson
OTHER PICKS: ASP, Augustine, Cleveland, Finnie

You can take the top pick out as a bust (even though he will anchor a 2nd line for 15 years) and still this draft plays out to be an ....


A+



2024

MBN - Soooooo good in camp, Yzerman wanted him in GR and others thought he should be in the NHL. I don't even care about the others (the Plante discussion gives me a headache).

A bit hard to grade this one, but it projects to be ... class ...........................


A+








Some may compare picks below players that were not taken. I prefer to focus on ho WAS taken and what they mean to the Red Wings. I have ZERO issues with the amateur scouting team and the picks made. This area of management is rock solid.
 
2020

Top Pick Lucas Raymond - super star in the making. A rare player. An outstanding pick.
OTHER PICKS - Unless Wallinder comes on no other player will be in the NHL.

A+ - Come on now, he picked Lucas Raymond.

If you're just giving out A+'s like candy, I really feel like you need to adjust your grading scale.

And on the flip side of that, I think you're writing off the 2020 draft too quickly. Sebrango and Bradley have already received NHL games. Several of the other guys can't be written off as not making it to the NHL yet
 
If you're just giving out A+'s like candy, I really feel like you need to adjust your grading scale.

And on the flip side of that, I think you're writing off the 2020 draft too quickly. Sebrango and Bradley have already received NHL games. Several of the other guys can't be written off as not making it to the NHL yet

I am not writing off any draft or player. I am also not handing out participation A grades. I was focused on highlighting the biggest successes in the draft. Going into the 20 draft, if told only one player would make the NHL by 20 and be a top line, game changing winger locked up long term after posting 232 points in 292 games.... what would you say and what grade would you give that draft? It is an A+. You are now adding additional players, so the grade is validated, unless you think less of Raymond. Do you?
 
I am not writing off any draft or player. I am also not handing out participation A grades. I was focused on highlighting the biggest successes in the draft. Going into the 20 draft, if told only one player would make the NHL by 20 and be a top line, game changing winger locked up long term after posting 232 points in 292 games.... what would you say and what grade would you give that draft? It is an A+. You are now adding additional players, so the grade is validated, unless you think less of Raymond. Do you?
I just wouldn't say getting Raymond or Kasper is the same as getting Lidstrom + Fedorov + Konstantinov + Sillinger + Drake, so I would leave some room above their grades for a more honest discussion
 
I just wouldn't say getting Raymond or Kasper is the same as getting Lidstrom + Fedorov + Konstantinov + Sillinger + Drake, so I would leave some room above their grades for a more honest discussion


That's one of those data points you gotta just throw away as an anomaly. It's unrepeatable because of how much scouting has changed and its just in a league of it's own.

Truthfully it is also too early to evaluate the 2023 and 2024 drafts. I like how they're trending but they can still change for the better or worse.


Either way the rebuild is looking great
 
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One thing to keep in mind especially about those early SY drafts was that the team had a huge number of picks, 23 overall in the 2019/20 Drafts including nine in the second and third rounds. What they got from those Drafts outside the first round -- a total of 62 GP for the Red Wings (and counting) -- is closer to the minimum that should have been expected rather than particularly good.
 
One thing to keep in mind especially about those early SY drafts was that the team had a huge number of picks, 23 overall in the 2019/20 Drafts including nine in the second and third rounds. What they got from those Drafts outside the first round -- a total of 62 GP for the Red Wings (and counting) -- is closer to the minimum that should have been expected rather than particularly good.

The Tuomisto pick which was a head scratcher on draft day looks bad when you see most of that 2nd round playing games in the league. Getting Johansson and Soderblom makes that draft a win, though.

The 2020 2nd and 3rd of Wallinder, Niederbach, Hanas, Viro and Sebrango was especially bad in hindsight. So many other players from that 2nd and 3rd are playing in the league and are impactful. Getting Raymond was great because we could have gone with Holtz, Drysdale or Perfetti. But the rest of the draft looks poopy unless Wallinder turns things around.
 
The Tuomisto pick which was a head scratcher on draft day looks bad when you see most of that 2nd round playing games in the league. Getting Johansson and Soderblom makes that draft a win, though.

The 2020 2nd and 3rd of Wallinder, Niederbach, Hanas, Viro and Sebrango was especially bad in hindsight. So many other players from that 2nd and 3rd are playing in the league and are impactful. Getting Raymond was great because we could have gone with Holtz, Drysdale or Perfetti. But the rest of the draft looks poopy unless Wallinder turns things around.

Love how AlJo and Elmer are playing. I'm going to need more than a month of good play on a team where everything is going right before I call post first-round drafting in 2019 a win. All it really points out though is that people are in way too much of a rush to judgment, good or bad. Almost six years after they were drafted we're still wondering how they'll turn out.
 

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