Player Discussion William Nylander

[Menzinger]

50 in 50

Nikolaj Ehlers 6.5M —> 43 in 41
David Pastrnak 11.25 —> 59 in 51
Mitch Marner 10.89 —> 68 in 50
2019 John Tavares 11 —> 87 in 82

28th in points, Tied 34th in PPG, T-6th highest player

This guy should be making 8M, not 11.5M. He’s worse than the JT contract.

Based off of their play, Marner really should get 14M

3rd in the league in goals too.

 

[Gary Nylund]

50 in 50

Nikolaj Ehlers 6.5M —> 43 in 41
David Pastrnak 11.25 —> 59 in 51
Mitch Marner 10.89 —> 68 in 50
2019 John Tavares 11 —> 87 in 82

28th in points, Tied 34th in PPG, T-6th highest player

This guy should be making 8M, not 11.5M. He’s worse than the JT contract.

Based off of their play, Marner really should get 14M

Nylander's play this season doesn't justify his cap hit, but that doesn't mean Marner should get 14M, that makes no sense whatsoever. We've seen this so many times before, Marner's great for 86 games, then his production drops from ~100 point pace to ~40 point pace. I mean if you don't care about playoffs then sure, pay him 14M and enjoy, that's not me though and I don't think it's many other people either.

Playoffs >>>>> regular season so I'll happily forgive subpar regular seasons for whoever steps up in the playoffs. And no matter what you do during the regular season, if you suck in the playoffs then you had a poor season overall.

And 22 assists

I’m tired of hearing this, it pissed me off with Matthews and it’s doing it with nylander. He’s on pace for 46 goals, and 82 points, for 11.5M thats just horrendous. At 11.5M I expect him (and the other 2) to be able to play with 1 one domi/knies/mcmann and anyone at Center and produce at a 90 point pace. This dude was producing like ass when Tavares was here too.

So he's 10% below where you think he should be. Doesn't seem like that big a deal really.

 

[notDatsyuk]

And 22 assists

I’m tired of hearing this, it pissed me off with Matthews and it’s doing it with nylander. He’s on pace for 46 goals, and 82 points, for 11.5M thats just horrendous. At 11.5M I expect him (and the other 2) to be able to play with 1 one domi/knies/mcmann and anyone at Center and produce at a 90 point pace. This dude was producing like ass when Tavares was here too.

A lot of injuries this year, and they all seem to affect the second line.

Matty out? Move JT up.
Knies out? Move McMann or Patches up.
McMann out? Move Knies up.

Unfortunately, "the other 2" get Domi and Knies and McMann and Patches (and JT) if anyone goes down, while Willy gets whatever is left.

He's still leading the team in goals and second in assists, despite spending a lot of his ice time with nobody who can convert his passes.

Last year, with fewer injuries on the team, he was second in goals, assists, and points, which "the other 2" can't claim.

 

[Aashir]

Nylander's play this season doesn't justify his cap hit, but that doesn't mean Marner should get 14M, that makes no sense whatsoever. We've seen this so many times before, Marner's great for 86 games, then his production drops from ~100 point pace to ~40 point pace. I mean if you don't care about playoffs then sure, pay him 14M and enjoy, that's not me though and I don't think it's many other people either.

Playoffs >>>>> regular season so I'll happily forgive subpar regular seasons for whoever steps up in the playoffs. And no matter what you do during the regular season, if you suck in the playoffs then you had a poor season overall.

Marners better in the first 86 by god knows how much currently. I expect Marner to hit 80 points in maybe a 8 games and I expect nylander to hit that by the end of the season.

Let’s use your stat, Nylander has (if my math is correct) 21 in 27 games for games 5 onwards. That’s a 63 point player. Marner has 14 in 26, a 44 point player. Nylander had one really strong version of this stat in 2022 where he had 5 in 3, and 2 in 4 before that,
otherwise he too is a 54 point player in those games. I’m not really picking sides, both are just ass IMO. I used to also be the same type of nylander fan who would argue late playoff series’s seperated Marner and nylander, but reality is they are both ass compared to others and their cap hits.

Playoffs are indeed >>>>>>> RS but both are ass that it doesn’t matter to me to nit pick who’s more ass.

So he's 10% below where you think he should be. Doesn't seem like that big a deal really.

Why does an 11.5M dollar player need to be at 90 points only? He’s more like 1.25 times below where he should be. He makes the same as Marner, he needs to produce like him too.

 

[ULF_55]

A lot of injuries this year, and they all seem to affect the second line.

Matty out? Move JT up.
Knies out? Move McMann or Patches up.
McMann out? Move Knies up.

Unfortunately, "the other 2" get Domi and Knies and McMann and Patches (and JT) if anyone goes down, while Willy gets whatever is left.

He's still leading the team in goals and second in assists, despite spending a lot of his ice time with nobody who can convert his passes.

Last year, with fewer injuries on the team, he was second in goals, assists, and points, which "the other 2" can't claim.

One of the reasons, I am fixated on a 2nd. line / potential 2nd. line center.

Leafs have 2 players capable of playing center in the top 6.
Leafs have nothing in the system projected to play top 6 center.

When one of Tavares or Matthews are out, the Leafs cannot create two top 6 lines.

Nylander, Tavares, Matthews, marner - top 6

Potential Top 6:
Developing: Knies
Default: McMann

That's it.

 

[ULF_55]

Marners better in the first 86 by god knows how much currently. I expect Marner to hit 80 points in maybe a 8 games and I expect nylander to hit that by the end of the season.

Let’s use your stat, Nylander has (if my math is correct) 21 in 27 games for games 5 onwards. That’s a 63 point player. Marner has 14 in 26, a 44 point player. Nylander had one really strong version of this stat in 2022 where he had 5 in 3, and 2 in 4 before that,
otherwise he too is a 54 point player in those games. I’m not really picking sides, both are just ass IMO. I used to also be the same type of nylander fan who would argue late playoff series’s seperated Marner and nylander, but reality is they are both ass compared to others and their cap hits.

Playoffs are indeed >>>>>>> RS but both are ass that it doesn’t matter to me to nit pick who’s more ass.


Why does an 11.5M dollar player need to be at 90 points only? He’s more like 1.25 times below where he should be. He makes the same as Marner, he needs to produce like him too.

I'm guessing you removed marner's best playoffs like you did Nylanders?

 

[Aashir]

A lot of injuries this year, and they all seem to affect the second line.

Matty out? Move JT up.
Knies out? Move McMann or Patches up.
McMann out? Move Knies up.

Unfortunately, "the other 2" get Domi and Knies and McMann and Patches (and JT) if anyone goes down, while Willy gets whatever is left.

He's still leading the team in goals and second in assists, despite spending a lot of his ice time with nobody who can convert his passes.

Last year, with fewer injuries on the team, he was second in goals, assists, and points, which "the other 2" can't claim.

Then he plays with JT and his fans, including myself say “JT can’t keep up” or “JT is cooked” or my favourite “Marner always gets Matthews and nylander gets Tavares”.

He’s 4th in assists per game with notorious playmaker AM34 ahead of him in it too.

David Pastrnak plays with the corpse of Zacha and Geekie according to Daily Puck Faceoff, Zacha has 29 in 51 geekie has 26 in 46, both pacing for 46 point but spent 90% of the season under .5 ppg.

He doesn’t seem to have a problem getting back to work and getting his play to where it needs to be with two third liners. He’s been doing this for 3 years now. That’s what I expect at 11.5M.

I'm guessing you removed marner's best playoffs like you did Nylanders?

I didnt, I still put that 2022 tampa series, but it really props up nylanders total. He’s not THAT big of a game performer, he better than Marner without it, but that one makes this weird stat much better for nylander.

Taking marners best one out would probably just be a 3 in 3 stretch.

 

[ULF_55]

I didnt, I still put that 2022 tampa series, but it really props up nylanders total. He’s not THAT big of a game performer, he better than Marner without it, but that one makes this weird stat much better for nylander.

Taking marners best one out would probably just be a 3 in 3 stretch.

Okay take out stats from one player to make the other player look better.

 

[ZEBROA]

Dont have the want in me to check it up. But i think Nylander is a desent 2nd line player.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Marners better in the first 86 by god knows how much currently. I expect Marner to hit 80 points in maybe a 8 games and I expect nylander to hit that by the end of the season.

Let’s use your stat, Nylander has (if my math is correct) 21 in 27 games for games 5 onwards. That’s a 63 point player. Marner has 14 in 26, a 44 point player. Nylander had one really strong version of this stat in 2022 where he had 5 in 3, and 2 in 4 before that,
otherwise he too is a 54 point player in those games. I’m not really picking sides, both are just ass IMO. I used to also be the same type of nylander fan who would argue late playoff series’s seperated Marner and nylander, but reality is they are both ass compared to others and their cap hits.

Playoffs are indeed >>>>>>> RS but both are ass that it doesn’t matter to me to nit pick who’s more ass.

Taking away Nylander's best year makes no sense. I also can't be bothered to check your math but even if it's accurate, 63 >>>>>44.

Why does an 11.5M dollar player need to be at 90 points only? He’s more like 1.25 times below where he should be. He makes the same as Marner, he needs to produce like him too.

I didn't say that you did. These were your exact words:

At 11.5M I expect him (and the other 2) to be able to play with 1 one domi/knies/mcmann and anyone at Center and produce at a 90 point pace.

I'll just say what I've been saying for some time now:
you can analyze the numbers all you want, I don't need any statistical analysis to tell me what's obvious just from watchin the games - regular season Marner>Nylander, playoffs Nylander>Marner.

 

[ULF_55]

Dont have the want in me to check it up. But i think Nylander is a desent 2nd line player.

Without checking, how many 1st. line players are there in the NHL?
Rough guess.

 

[Aashir]

Taking away Nylander's best year makes no sense. I also can't be bothered to check your math but even if it's accurate, 63 >>>>>44.


I didn't say that you did. These were your exact words:

At 11.5M I expect him (and the other 2) to be able to play with 1 one domi/knies/mcmann and anyone at Center and produce at a 90 point pace.

I'll just say what I've been saying for some time now:
you can analyze the numbers all you want, I don't need any statistical analysis to tell me what's obvious just from watchin the games - regular season Marner>Nylander, playoffs Nylander>Marner.

Ok seeing what I said, I can see how I messed up

My meaning was:
with lesser third liners he should be a 90 point player. So when people say “but he’s playing with x and x and still leads the team in goals and is a ppg” I don’t really care, as he should still be a 90ish point player

With Tavares he should be a 100 point player. didn’t make myself clear enough so that’s my bad.

63 is borderline first line production, 44 is third line production. I’m not saying nylander ISNT better, it’s obvious from watching and the stats who is in those games, what I am trying saying is we are overrating HOW good nylander actually is in those games. He’s good compared to our guys, but that’s because each of them lowers the standard more than the next. Moreover, I don’t completely agree with how you assess playoffs because games 1-3 are still played and are playoff games and those combined with 4-7 make marners stats better.

Marner underproduces his talent with his style of play by being a p***y at the point, nylander underproduces his talent because he never shows up to the start of a series. Both guys have major flaws and we can’t have that at their cap bits

 

[GoonieFace]

Ok seeing what I said, I can see how I messed up

My meaning was:
with lesser third liners he should be a 90 point player. So when people say “but he’s playing with x and x and still leads the team in goals and is a ppg” I don’t really care, as he should still be a 90ish point player

With Tavares he should be a 100 point player. didn’t make myself clear enough so that’s my bad.

63 is borderline first line production, 44 is third line production. I’m not saying nylander ISNT better, it’s obvious from watching and the stats who is in those games, what I am trying saying is we are overrating HOW good nylander actually is in those games. He’s good compared to our guys, but that’s because each of them lowers the standard more than the next. Moreover, I don’t completely agree with how you assess playoffs because games 1-3 are still played and are playoff games and those combined with 4-7 make marners stats better.

Marner underproduces his talent with his style of play by being a p***y at the point, nylander underproduces his talent because he never shows up to the start of a series. Both guys have major flaws and we can’t have that at their cap bits

3rd in the league in goals, he is producing. Can’t get assists if your line mates can’t finish.

If Mike Trout hits 50 home runs, but only has 65 rbi, is that his fault or his teammates who can’t get on base?

 

[arso40]

Nylander's play this season doesn't justify his cap hit, but that doesn't mean Marner should get 14M, that makes no sense whatsoever. We've seen this so many times before, Marner's great for 86 games, then his production drops from ~100 point pace to ~40 point pace. I mean if you don't care about playoffs then sure, pay him 14M and enjoy, that's not me though and I don't think it's many other people either.

Playoffs >>>>> regular season so I'll happily forgive subpar regular seasons for whoever steps up in the playoffs. And no matter what you do during the regular season, if you suck in the playoffs then you had a poor season overall.


So he's 10% below where you think he should be. Doesn't seem like that big a deal really.

Everyone ignores the bullshit Willy deals with look who he’s played with

 

[Aashir]

Everyone ignores the bullshit Willy deals with look who he’s played with

I get it he is playing with third liners at best, but guys like Pastrnak are producing at 95 point rates playing with their own pile of trash

and it's not like he was lighting it up when JT was playing, he had 44 in 45 at the time and JT was a ~40 goal scorer too when he went down

3rd in the league in goals, he is producing. Can’t get assists if your line mates can’t finish.

If Mike Trout hits 50 home runs, but only has 65 rbi, is that his fault or his teammates who can’t get on base?

He's been way too inconsistent in goal scoring to make up for that drop off in points, he has 4 in the last 5, but 1 in the past 11 before that. He needs to score at least 50 IMO to even start talking about "evening" out his points drop off

If nylander's assists are going to fall off the face of the planet, he needs to be a consistent goal scorer, but it looks like he's just going to get his usual 40 on the dot but with almost 10-20 less assists than usual. I understand the linemates are ass, but at what point does his point production then become a problem? Under PPG? Under 60 points? at some point he needs to produce despite them otherwise why does he make 11.5?

 

[GoonieFace]

I get it he is playing with third liners at best, but guys like Pastrnak are producing at 95 point rates playing with their own pile of trash

and it's not like he was lighting it up when JT was playing, he had 44 in 45 at the time and JT was a ~40 goal scorer too when he went down

He's been way too inconsistent in goal scoring to make up for that drop off in points, he has 4 in the last 5, but 1 in the past 11 before that. He needs to score at least 50 IMO to even start talking about "evening" out his points drop off

If nylander's assists are going to fall off the face of the planet, he needs to be a consistent goal scorer, but it looks like he's just going to get his usual 40 on the dot but with almost 10-20 less assists than usual. I understand the linemates are ass, but at what point does his point production then become a problem? Under PPG? Under 60 points? at some point he needs to produce despite them otherwise why does he make 11.5?

Nobody is saying he should be making $11.5mil, that’s not his problem. He is producing goals at a high level, not worried about his point production. It will
be there if his linemates can score. You can only get assists if other people score

 

[ITM]

I get it he is playing with third liners at best, but guys like Pastrnak are producing at 95 point rates playing with their own pile of trash

and it's not like he was lighting it up when JT was playing, he had 44 in 45 at the time and JT was a ~40 goal scorer too when he went down

He's been way too inconsistent in goal scoring to make up for that drop off in points, he has 4 in the last 5, but 1 in the past 11 before that. He needs to score at least 50 IMO to even start talking about "evening" out his points drop off

If nylander's assists are going to fall off the face of the planet, he needs to be a consistent goal scorer, but it looks like he's just going to get his usual 40 on the dot but with almost 10-20 less assists than usual. I understand the linemates are ass, but at what point does his point production then become a problem? Under PPG? Under 60 points? at some point he needs to produce despite them otherwise why does he make 11.5?

I think when the linemates are less ass.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Ok seeing what I said, I can see how I messed up

My meaning was:
with lesser third liners he should be a 90 point player. So when people say “but he’s playing with x and x and still leads the team in goals and is a ppg” I don’t really care, as he should still be a 90ish point player

With Tavares he should be a 100 point player. didn’t make myself clear enough so that’s my bad.

63 is borderline first line production, 44 is third line production. I’m not saying nylander ISNT better, it’s obvious from watching and the stats who is in those games, what I am trying saying is we are overrating HOW good nylander actually is in those games. He’s good compared to our guys, but that’s because each of them lowers the standard more than the next. Moreover, I don’t completely agree with how you assess playoffs because games 1-3 are still played and are playoff games and those combined with 4-7 make marners stats better.

Marner underproduces his talent with his style of play by being a p***y at the point, nylander underproduces his talent because he never shows up to the start of a series. Both guys have major flaws and we can’t have that at their cap bits

OK fair enough, I get where you're coming from. I will say a few things:

1)
It's not games 1-3 vs games 4-7, it's games 1-86 vs the rest. It seems like the first few games of the playoffs, there's a bit of an adjustment to playoff style hockey and while that's going on Marner still produces, then once everyone's adjusted he's toast. If that's the reason his production dies (and it seems like it's reasonable to think that might be the case) then he's simply not worth much to any team that's hoping to go deep.

2)
If we treat all playoff games as being equal, the overall numbers show that Marner, Matthews and Tavares all suffer big dropoffs in production in the playoffs whereas Nylander does not. That said, Nylander's production is lower during the season so it's easier to keep it up but nevertheless, he's the one guy that doesn't drop off in the playoffs.

3)
Now that Nylander is in a new pay bracket, expectations are higher. His regular season isn't enough to justify his cap hit and I agree PPG just isn't enough. And yes perhaps with Tavares as long as he's playing well, 100 points should be the expectation, I'm not disputing that, I also don't care too much because again, I care so much more about the playoffs. I've said many times before when people are bitching about Marner's slow starts that I don't care if he gest 70 or 120 points, just bring it in the playoffs and I'll say the same about Nylander.

4)
We should stop comparing Marner to Nylander. I get why it happens - it seems like Marner is the focal point of everything so everything gets discussed ITT and that's fine, but if we really want to put Marner's performance in context, we should be looking at all his compareables in the NHL, not just Nylander.

5)
IMHO goals are worth more than assists. Not sure how much more, probably about 1.5 points each but in any case, that's something I take into consideration when comparing these guys. Marner's still having a much better season, that just reduces the gap somewhat but still, it's something.

6) I wouldn't say Nylander underproduces his talent, not in the playoffs anyway. But who's to say how much talent someone has anyway? I think it's more fair to judge players with respect to their cap hits and that means that Nylander to this point has been very good in the playoffs. That said, expectations are much higher now so we'll see what happens this spring

 

[ULF_55]

I think when the linemates are less ass.

I think he gets the short end because he can create on his own.
Brutal management, team doesn't have 6 top 6 forwards.
It isn't just Cap restrictions, it is plain incompetence.
Treliving was the best the richest franchise could land.
Pathetic, and lineup is result.

 

[GoonieFace]

I think he gets the short end because he can create on his own.
Brutal management, team doesn't have 6 top 6 forwards.
It isn't just Cap restrictions, it is plain incompetence.
Treliving was the best the richest franchise could land.
Pathetic, and lineup is result.

Also terrible lineup decisions by Bérubé. He could have left McMann on his line, but noooooo, can’t leave M and M short, what a joke

 

[Menzinger]

3rd in the league in goals, he is producing. Can’t get assists if your line mates can’t finish.

If Mike Trout hits 50 home runs, but only has 65 rbi, is that his fault or his teammates who can’t get on base?

Agreed.

Like, secondary assists are nice, but I wouldn't exactly go to them as a main way to evaluate a players value, especially trying to put them on the same level as goals. Quality of linemates absolutely plays a major role in that.

And also at 50 games into the season, it would only take Nylander A few hot games to bump that assist rate up. Not to say Nylander hasn't earned some critiques but things tend to get evened out after 82 games

 

[Dekes For Days]

Nylander has a pretty normal on ice shooting percentage. I don't know where this narrative about linemates never converting came from. Quite frankly, while he's had some mediocre linemates, I've seen him do more cheating for breakaways than setting up teammates recently. He's good at it, but still.

 

[GoonieFace]

Nylander has a pretty normal on ice shooting percentage. I don't know where this narrative about linemates never converting came from. Quite frankly, while he's had some mediocre linemates, I've seen him do more cheating for breakaways than setting up teammates recently. He's good at it, but still.

Nylander blows the D zone early, Marner blows the O zone early.

The only consistent thing, lots of blowing going on

 

[Aashir]

Nobody is saying he should be making $11.5mil, that’s not his problem. He is producing goals at a high level, not worried about his point production. It will
be there if his linemates can score. You can only get assists if other people score

I guess we will see if he’s able to bring it back, sure hope he is able to

I think when the linemates are less ass.

Then I guess we just wait till JT comes back or we make an acquisition for a 3C, but that’s going to mean this season will be a burn for him to live up to the RS, hopefully he lives up to it in the playoffs as that’s more important and he will have better players to play with

OK fair enough, I get where you're coming from. I will say a few things:

1)
It's not games 1-3 vs games 4-7, it's games 1-86 vs the rest. It seems like the first few games of the playoffs, there's a bit of an adjustment to playoff style hockey and while that's going on Marner still produces, then once everyone's adjusted he's toast. If that's the reason his production dies (and it seems like it's reasonable to think that might be the case) then he's simply not worth much to any team that's hoping to go deep.

2)
If we treat all playoff games as being equal, the overall numbers show that Marner, Matthews and Tavares all suffer big dropoffs in production in the playoffs whereas Nylander does not. That said, Nylander's production is lower during the season so it's easier to keep it up but nevertheless, he's the one guy that doesn't drop off in the playoffs.

3)
Now that Nylander is in a new pay bracket, expectations are higher. His regular season isn't enough to justify his cap hit and I agree PPG just isn't enough. And yes perhaps with Tavares as long as he's playing well, 100 points should be the expectation, I'm not disputing that, I also don't care too much because again, I care so much more about the playoffs. I've said many times before when people are bitching about Marner's slow starts that I don't care if he gest 70 or 120 points, just bring it in the playoffs and I'll say the same about Nylander.

4)
We should stop comparing Marner to Nylander. I get why it happens - it seems like Marner is the focal point of everything so everything gets discussed ITT and that's fine, but if we really want to put Marner's performance in context, we should be looking at all his compareables in the NHL, not just Nylander.

5)
IMHO goals are worth more than assists. Not sure how much more, probably about 1.5 points each but in any case, that's something I take into consideration when comparing these guys. Marner's still having a much better season, that just reduces the gap somewhat but still, it's something.

6) I wouldn't say Nylander underproduces his talent, not in the playoffs anyway. But who's to say how much talent someone has anyway? I think it's more fair to judge players with respect to their cap hits and that means that Nylander to this point has been very good in the playoffs. That said, expectations are much higher now so we'll see what happens this spring

Some good points in there, things I would say are:

1)This doesn't just apply to Nylander, but to them all but I really don’t think the “playoffs is all we need”. Look at the best playoff performers around. Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Mackinnon, Rantanen, Kucherov. They don't just have a switch and turn it on game 1 of the playoffs, they have sustained dominance throughout the regular season and then continue it into the playoffs. Not only as a fan is that more entertaining for the regular season + playoffs, but I think to a certain extent it helps the players and team going in. If Nylander and Marner go into the playoffs as 70 point players is it really logical to think they'll all of a sudden elevate their games to higher levels? I for one don't believe that and so want them to dominate the regular season and lead that into the playoffs. Now obviously I don't want them to go 100% balls to the walls and risk injury, but I don't see why they can't compete with the leagues best.

2) Only compare Marner and Nylaner because they are both RW, same team, and as of now make similar money, when/if marner is bumped up to like 13-14 than there won't be a comparison again

3) I don't really agree with the goals > assists. In fact I am quite the opposite and even in play styles I take the playmaker over the goal scorer, especially if we are speaking about high level elite talent. Take any goal scorer and their PPG, GPG, and impact always drops. Matthews, Ovechkin, Pastnak, Stamkos...etc and they are always having their goal totals and paces fall off come playoffs. Now compare that to Mackinnon, Mcdavid, Kucherov, Crosby...etc and they are much better and higher end producers. It's also not surprising that for most of the time, the leagues best player is a playmaker (Mcdavid, Kucherov, Crosby, Mackinnon) whereas the goal scorer at best has a few years like ovechkin, or a single year like matthews.

4) Nylander in my eyes (maybe biased) 100% underproduces his talent. We got a glimpse of his full potential if he gave a shit every game before he signed the contract, we've seen glimpses in periods of the playoffs too (game 6 boston, montreal series, 3rd period florida game 2) but he never is consistent enough. Out of the core 4, Nylander and Matthews are the ones who I can actually criticize their "effort", the other two is always about "execution" and "playstyle". At his best Nylander can be a 100+ point player and a series changer similar to how marner and matthews should be, but he never can or will be able to put it together.

 

[ULF_55]

Even strength goals scored in playoffs last 10 seasons.

These years were prior to Nylander joining the double digit gang.