ULF_55
Moderator
I can't be bothered to look it up ATM so feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
The pattern established over 8 years now is that Marner is ~100 point player for the first 86 games of the season, then he turns into a ~40 point player. It has nothing to do with over the glass goofs - paying Marner like he's one of the best players in the league and him turning into a 40 point player once players have settled into playoff hockey, that's the problem.
Recent history is even worse. IIRC, the first 4 games against TB in 2023 he had 9 points but he's been a ~40 point player in the playoffs since then and that includes 2 full series.
It seems obvious that recent history carries more weight that what happened many years ago, and based on recent history, Marner is not a player who you can count on in the playoffs.
Great player in the regular season for sure. If we had no playoff ambitions whatsoever, I'd have no problem paying him top dollar. He puts up points, plays solid defence and he's probably one of the most fun to watch players in the league. After game 86 though, no offence but he sucks. I mean, he's still maybe played at a middle 6 forward level or something but for an 11 million dollar forward, he sucks. The future hasn't happened yet so maybe he changes the narrative, doesn't seem too likely though.
Using minimum 20 Game Played so it covers (in most cases) greater than a single season. Now if a player went on a long run (semi finals example) it might skew player positioning, but not within the Leafs team itself.
For his last contract Nylander was 2nd. on the team for points per game in the playoffs. During that contract Matthews had the highest points per game for the team.
At their contract price points, you'd have to give the nod to Nylander for earning his Cap suck in the post season. He performed in his snack bracket, whereas Matthews snack bracket was Top 10 compensation in the league, other than year 1 of Nylander's deal.
So let's use Matthews contract dates for the same comparison:
Again, Nylander is 2nd. on the team to Matthews, during Matthews contract. Matthews performance in the post season has increased to 1.00 PPG, 16th. league wide.
I think most of the players ahead of Matthews are acknowledged as extremely good performers.