Speculation: William Karlsson next contract

[Spirit of 67]

2 x $5M.
Gets him to UFA.

 

[Masch78]

I think they will offer the same contract his linemates got.

 

[Kodak Ginger]

He’ll probs get invetween 5-6 mill for 2-4 years.

 

[Killer Orca]

2 years 6.5 per or 5 per 5 years.

 

[wingsfan17]

6M for 6 years is a good deal for both sides. Especially considering his line mates are under contract for at least 4 more years each. I know this season could be viewed as a fluke and you don’t want to hand out a big contract after just one good year, but if you actually watch his game I think you can tell he is the real deal.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

His agent will probably try to want to get a long term deal, and not risk a bridge deal given his year was such an outlier. I think a 5 year deal that both sides feel good about is likely (around 5x5) and he has a shot for another contract afterward if he keeps it up.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

$4.5M is my estimate for about 3-4 years.

 

[Flukeshot]

Such a risky contract. Definitely could see Karlsson taking a discount for long term.

 

[lgs093]

8 x 5.5-6 m/ With nevada's low state taxes. 42 goals is no fluke. even if he regresses, hes not going to turn into some shell of himself.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

8 x 5.5-6 m/ With nevada's low state taxes. 42 goals is no fluke. even if he regresses, hes not going to turn into some shell of himself.

The problem is the most goals he scored in any season but this one was 9 goals in 81 games. There is a chance he regresses to like a 20 goal scorer. Lots and lots of risk.

If I'm Vegas I would probably do a 3 year contract.

 

[McSuper]

depends how he finishes the season and how his playoffs go. foolish to give him a bug contract after half a season

Oilers have a few bug contracts . Lucic contract bugs me and so does Russell .

 

[ThatGuy22]

8 x 5.5-6 m/ With nevada's low state taxes. 42 goals is no fluke. even if he regresses, hes not going to turn into some shell of himself.

42 Goals is most definitely a fluke. The key for Vegas is figuring out what they think he really is in that 15-25 goal range.

 

[rent free]

Oilers have a few bug contracts . Lucic contract bugs me and so does Russell .

lol i just realized yesterday that i made that typo but i didn't want to edit it because i didn't think anyone would notice

 

[Sol]

The problem is the most goals he scored in any season but this one was 9 goals in 81 games. There is a chance he regresses to like a 20 goal scorer. Lots and lots of risk.

If I'm Vegas I would probably do a 3 year contract.

Short term, big money. Prove me deal. Can easily be a fluke season

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Short term, big money. Prove me deal. Can easily be a fluke season

Yup that seems the most logical option to me. Too much risk in a 6+ year deal

 

[ck26]

What are these 6 and 8 yr deals ??? After 1 big year???

2 more years till UFA, right?

$4m x 2 yrs then UFA. And even that's probably a tad high.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Vegas is at a cross roads with Karlsson.

They could opt for a 1 or 2 year show me deal since his level of production is completely out of line with his previous career totals, but if he continues to be a near point per game 30+ goal (yeah I know he has 40+ now) 1st line C, they are going to end up having to pay him something like 8-10 million over 8 years on his next contract.

If they go long term right now, they'll likely get a bit of a discount due to his limited body of work as a 1st liner, but if he regresses, he won't be able to live up to the contract.

I would probably predict something like 2 years 5.5-6.5 per. That buys out the final two RFA years of Karlsson's current contract, gives him his first big pay day (11-13 million) and leaves the door open for a big 8 year extension 1 year from now if Karlsson has a strong 2nd season.

It doesn't really matter all that much what they pay him on a short term show me deal, because if he regresses, the deal will quickly be over with, and the Knights have a surplus of cap space. If they are confident in Karlsson, and he is willing to go the safe route, they should lock him up 6-8 years now.

The closest comparable situation I remember to a player breaking out like this (although different positions) was Klingberg on Dallas. Klingberg took a discount for the security of a long term contract after 1 very strong season rather than better on himself with a show me type contract.

 

[Stasis]

Definitely should be a shorter term "do it again" deal, but he's earned it. Kind of amazing really. Guy went from probably getting 2M-3M (if his production had continued to trend as it was), to getting I imagine either 5M something for longer term or 6M something for shorter. Probably the most impressive jump I've seen for a forward at his age... at least that I can think of quickly. I've seen plenty of top pick rookies make similar jumps as they come into their own and become superstars but even then... from 25 points to 75+, 9 goals to 42+ even knowing the sh% can't be maintained... damn. I'd be real surprised if he regressed back to 25 though. I'd also be real surprised if he repeated this. So in that sense it might be wise to sign him to a longer term for slightly less. I don't really know the situation with Vegas' players and contracts tbh.

Regressing back to 25 would be the weirdest fluke season I've seen. 20pts, 25pts, 75pts (more, probably), 25 pts. WTF? You keep thinking it's gonna end and it doesn't. Grats to him whatever happens moving forward, he basically won the lotto even if he does regress. Vegas is a fun team and I love all these stories.

edit: and one of his last goals was gorgeous. He's obviously got the hands and skill. Let's see playoffs and consistency.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

What are these 6 and 8 yr deals ??? After 1 big year???

2 more years till UFA, right?

$4m x 2 yrs then UFA. And even that's probably a tad high.

I think you have the right idea with a possibility of a 2 year show me deal that buys out his RFA years, but 4M seems too low on a show me deal.

If he is offered 4M, he could just opt to go to arbitration, where there's a reasonable chance he'd get more.

 

[CraigsList]

3 years x 6m is reasonable. Anything past 4 years is a huge risk.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

4x4 compromise deal.

 

[IceNeophyte]

6M for 6 years is a good deal for both sides. Especially considering his line mates are under contract for at least 4 more years each. I know this season could be viewed as a fluke and you don’t want to hand out a big contract after just one good year, but if you actually watch his game I think you can tell he is the real deal.

Yes, if you watch him, scoring is one of the less impressive things he does. He is a monster on both the forecheck and the backcheck.

 

[XXIV97]

7 M @ 8

 

[BLNY]

He's had a career year. No previous season comes close to this sort of season he's had. I'd be hesitant to throw a blank check at him. He's a 25 year old RFA. Qualify him and work on an extension. AFAIC, there's no pressure on the club to expedite a contract that pays him for what could be a blip.

 

[KIRK]

2 x $5M.
Gets him to UFA.

I think Vegas will try to do something like this and, if Karlsson proves it again next year, look to extend him long term before the bridge expires.

I'm not sure they're going to gamble right now on a long term deal north of 6M per. Maybe at 5M or slightly less, but I'm not sure Karlsson would take that.

I've always liked Wild Bill, but you really need to be careful with his next deal.