Value of: Will the NHL ever begin dealing in futures as much as the NBA does?

[New Jerseys Devil]

Hello!

Today the Phoenix Suns made a trade where they moved a (very distant) future 1st rounder for three other 1sts before then. Long story short, this was done so they had draft capital to make another trade here soon (likely for Jimmy Butler of the Miami Heat in a 4-team deal).

The reason the Utah Jazz gave three 1sts for only one is that coveted pick is years away (in 2031) and is unprotected. The Phoenix Suns are expected to be very, very bad around that time; thus raising the value of the future 1st rounder

Why dont we see deals like this in the NHL; where future picks are coveted from contending teams on the downswing?

Teams tearing it down or already rebuilding get future (and likely higher) picks while aging contenders get a way to secure talent for draft picks farther away than the coming April.

NBA is quite wonky with how they handle picks; so I know theres some differences there. And NBA draft picks end up making a difference much earlier too!

But I still ask: do you think the NHL ever gets to a point where distant draft picks hold higher value due to the ability to project cap space and, with analytics, roster production?

Will draft picks 2-3-4 years out begin carrying higher value as teams navigate a cap world more efficiently?

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[New Jerseys Devil]

Just some food for thought! Cheers!!

 

[Smif]

Hello!

Today the Phoenix Suns made a trade where they moved a (very distant) future 1st rounder for three other 1sts before then. Long story short, this was done so they had draft capital to make another trade here soon (likely for Jimmy Butler of the Miami Heat in a 4-team deal).

The reason the Utah Jazz gave three 1sts for only one is that coveted pick is years away (in 2031) and is unprotected. The Phoenix Suns are expected to be very, very bad around that time; thus raising the value of the future 1st rounder

Why dont we see deals like this in the NHL; where future picks are coveted from contending teams on the downswing?

Teams tearing it down or already rebuilding get future (and likely higher) picks while aging contenders get a way to secure talent for draft picks farther away than the coming April.

NBA is quite wonky with how they handle picks; so I know theres some differences there. And NBA draft picks end up making a difference much earlier too!

But I still ask: do you think the NHL ever gets to a point where distant draft picks hold higher value due to the ability to project cap space and, with analytics, roster production?

Will draft picks 2-3-4 years out begin carrying higher value as teams navigate a cap world more efficiently?

The Washington Capitals is why. It would really suck to have traded 3 1st rd picks for their 2025 1st rd'er this year because they were projected to be a bottom 10 team.

If anything I would suggest asking why the NBA does it and why no other major league does. The NBA is going down a dark path imo.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Hope the NHL never follows NBA footsteps on trades/forcing out of contracts to create superteams/etc

 

[Devilmademedoit]

The record I think is 6 years when Montreal made a trade thinking 99 would be in the 1980 draft

 

[MakoSlade]

I don't think I want the NHL doing much of what the NBA does. The NBA is more player-centric than team-centric. It blows my mind how often super-duper stars move from team to team, and to me that would make it hard on a true fan of a team. Imagine Jack Huges, Nico and Luke leaving the Devils on some damn crusade to bring the cup to <insert any team here>. That would be gut-wrenching.

And as for draft picks, NBA 1st round pick stars never even play a single game for the team that picks them all the time. That is weird to me. My favorite NBA team is the Knicks, and I don't get too attached. And favorite player is Giannis Antetokounmpo because he is awesome and played for one team.

Okay, rant over. Now to the question at hand, it is possible to see future picks moved very early. Like if the next McDavid / Lemieux / Gretzky is known at age 15, a smart GM would target draft picks for that draft year. I think this has happened in the past. I know Lou Lamoriello fleeced the Toronto Maple Leafs of their 1st round pick in the Lindros draft, and I recall Montreal doing it in the 1970's (LaFleur?). But hopefully there remains little to link the NHL to the NBA in how it is run.

 

[StrompTroller]

Just some food for thought! Cheers!!

This post was like watching shark tank and Mark Cuban suddenly says nah I'm out! Kinda suspect.

 

[New Jerseys Devil]

The record I think is 6 years when Montreal made a trade thinking 99 would be in the 1980 draft

Interesting! I believe nowadays the maximum amount of draft years away you can trade is four

 

[Devilmademedoit]

sorry, the habs traded 4 years in advance and not 6

1. The Colorado Rockies' first round pick went to the Montreal Canadiens as the result of a trade on September 13, 1976 that sent Ron Andruff, Sean Shanahan to Colorado in exchange for cash and Montreal's option to swap 1st-round picks in the 1980 Entry Draft. Montreal exercised the option and swap the 19th pick for the 1st overall pick in 1980.

For the curious, the NHL changed the rules the year before. 1980 was Gretz draft year before the change

 

[Silky mitts]

That 2030 pick swap the Wiz got with Chris Paul for Beal may work out yet

 

[x Tame Impala]

It’s a pretty amateurish practice. People tried to do it on my GM Connected league I was running on HF over a decade ago. Something a little kid would think is a good idea, but it really just hurts the integrity of the league.

 

[Brodeur]

NBA trades always give me a headache. One amusing thing is the Ted Stepien rule named after the Cleveland owner from the 80's who kept trading away 1st rounders. I'm sure an NBA fan can explain it better, but basically the NBA prohibits teams from trading first rounders in consecutive drafts. So that can lead to trades with draft picks way into the future and then combine that with pick protections.

If you were to trade for a 2030 NHL Draft pick, that player might not be a useful NHL until 2033 or beyond. I don't know how many owners would be that patient or GMs who would have that sort of job security.

And maybe just the nature of the NBA and its smaller rosters where if you got lucky in the draft on one player that could turn your franchise around. Whereas even if you hit on a first rounder in the NHL, you still have a lot of other roster spots to fill.

 

[Dr Robot]

I believe the issue with the NHL is that the up and down trends are less predictable and a lot more of than success is decided by those first rounders. Even a high end team can stumble hard for one of those three years due to a range of factors and end up giving away a pick higher than the one expected. On top of that NHL GMs are cowards and becoming even more risk averse. How many first round picks are traded each year WITHOUT protections on them? It would be somewhat logical for teams to target specific drafts like say first rounders 3 years from now to help get all their prospects in a specific age range, but that’s not how we operate.

 

[dgibb10]

You can win an NBA championship by simply building a good enough roster. Other than injury health, there is not much luck involved in the outcomes of NBA playoff series.

In the NBA, the better team will win the series the vast majority of the time.

The sample size of shots is so large that luck becomes much less impactful.

In the NHL, even in "blowouts" the outcome ends up being dependent on what? 3 plays? 3 seconds even? You can dominate a team for 55 minutes and lose. That really doesn't happen in the NBA. The better team often loses. So much luck comes into play.

Maximizing the length of the window means more than maximizing any individual chance. That and the fact that trades can be used to exceed the cap, and you can keep (virtually) any and all players if you want.

That and the NBA being won by elite players much more than depth. Unless it's a VERY high pick, or you spend half a decade accumulating these dart throws (eg Thunder), mid/late 1sts don't have much impact.

 

[Brodeur]

I believe the issue with the NHL is that the up and down trends are less predictable and a lot more of than success is decided by those first rounders. Even a high end team can stumble hard for one of those three years due to a range of factors and end up giving away a pick higher than the one expected. On top of that NHL GMs are cowards and becoming even more risk averse. How many first round picks are traded each year WITHOUT protections on them? It would be somewhat logical for teams to target specific drafts like say first rounders 3 years from now to help get all their prospects in a specific age range, but that’s not how we operate.

Not sure how much of that is cowardice as opposed to the relatively short tenures that most GMs get. Quick count and 21 of the 32 GMs were hired in 2020 or later. Not many GMs have the job security to make a trade for futures and possibly not be around to see those players.

GMs still take orders from ownership and I don't know many owners who would be that patient to wait for a first rounder in a draft three years from now.

Devils had three first rounders in 2020 which made sense to line up with Jack Hughes (2019). But only one of them is still with the team today.

And perhaps one thing we don't like to admit as prospect junkies is that there aren't exactly 32 blue chip talents available each year. Most years teams would be happy if a player taken in the 20s is a useful depth piece, but we as fans seem to think that we're 100% going to get a David Pastrnak or John Carlson.

Most teams aren't going to trade a proven player for the chance at drafting a proven player. Mix in that most players worth a 1st in a trade likely have trade protection. And then there's earlier free agency nowadays, so it's more difficult now than say when Pierre Lacroix was loading up on 1998 picks to try to land Vinny Lecavalier.

 

[BoHorvat 53]

Hello!

Today the Phoenix Suns made a trade where they moved a (very distant) future 1st rounder for three other 1sts before then. Long story short, this was done so they had draft capital to make another trade here soon (likely for Jimmy Butler of the Miami Heat in a 4-team deal).

The reason the Utah Jazz gave three 1sts for only one is that coveted pick is years away (in 2031) and is unprotected. The Phoenix Suns are expected to be very, very bad around that time; thus raising the value of the future 1st rounder

Why dont we see deals like this in the NHL; where future picks are coveted from contending teams on the downswing?

Teams tearing it down or already rebuilding get future (and likely higher) picks while aging contenders get a way to secure talent for draft picks farther away than the coming April.

NBA is quite wonky with how they handle picks; so I know theres some differences there. And NBA draft picks end up making a difference much earlier too!

But I still ask: do you think the NHL ever gets to a point where distant draft picks hold higher value due to the ability to project cap space and, with analytics, roster production?

Will draft picks 2-3-4 years out begin carrying higher value as teams navigate a cap world more efficiently?

The thing is, what the Suns did today was a desperation move. Everyone with half a brain sees this as a disaster in the works waiting to happen. They traded for KD, and really have no choice but to chase at this point and double down.

The NBA is a totally different league, with that being said. Superstars can single handedly make your a team a contender in the NBA, while in hockey you really need depth.

 

[bossram]

I don't think I want the NHL doing much of what the NBA does. The NBA is more player-centric than team-centric. It blows my mind how often super-duper stars move from team to team, and to me that would make it hard on a true fan of a team. Imagine Jack Huges, Nico and Luke leaving the Devils on some damn crusade to bring the cup to <insert any team here>. That would be gut-wrenching.

And as for draft picks, NBA 1st round pick stars never even play a single game for the team that picks them all the time. That is weird to me. My favorite NBA team is the Knicks, and I don't get too attached. And favorite player is Giannis Antetokounmpo because he is awesome and played for one team.

Okay, rant over. Now to the question at hand, it is possible to see future picks moved very early. Like if the next McDavid / Lemieux / Gretzky is known at age 15, a smart GM would target draft picks for that draft year. I think this has happened in the past. I know Lou Lamoriello fleeced the Toronto Maple Leafs of their 1st round pick in the Lindros draft, and I recall Montreal doing it in the 1970's (LaFleur?). But hopefully there remains little to link the NHL to the NBA in how it is run.

Bolded is why these types of trades won't happen in the NHL. In the NBA, moving an enormous futures war chest for one player can make sense, because one player can have a massive impact on the team's success.

It just doesn't work like that in hockey, outside of maybe 1-5 untradeable players. There is no reason to amass a mountain of picks and trade them for one player, when one player can't impact your team that much.